生产性服务业集聚与经济增长
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摘要
生产性服务业是一种高集聚、高知识化、高辐射和高就业的现代服务产业,具有较强的产业关联性和高度的人力、知识资本密集性,在提升区域产业竞争力,推动经济又好又快发展中发挥着重要作用。国际金融危机以来,面对不利的国际经济环境,在工业增长减速的情况下,以生产性服务业为主体的现代服务业保持了良好的发展势头,对保持我国经济平稳较快增长做出了贡献。然而目前我国生产性服务业发展中却存在着盲目性、发展滞后、比重偏低、规划缺乏全局观念和统筹思想等问题。这些问题的解决对于选择适宜的生产性服务业集聚模式、促进产业结构调整和增长方式转变,进一步提高经济运行效率和增长水平都具有明显的现实意义。但是,目前我国学术界对于生产性服务业集聚模式、城市之间生产性服务业集聚与经济增长的空间关联机制、生产性服务业集聚在区域经济结构调整和竞争优势培育中的作用等方面的研究仍不够深入。
本文在马歇尔外部性、雅各布斯外部性和新经济地理理论基础上构建统一的理论分析框架和生产性服务业专业化集聚、多样化集聚以及生产性服务业空间集聚规模指标,从要素和市场两个方面探讨生产性服务业的集聚效应,深入分析我国各地区地级及以上城市生产性服务业集聚模式,揭示生产性服务业集聚对区域经济增长的作用机制。
本文首先在控制了生产性服务业本地集聚规模情况下,从马歇尔外部性和雅各布斯外部性的综合视角探讨生产性服务业专业化集聚和多样化集聚对经济增长的影响。结果表明,生产性服务业专业化显著促进了城市经济增长,而多样化对经济增长的作用却不显著。这意味着我国生产性服务业集聚对经济增长的作用主要表现为马歇尔外部性。即在生产性服务业集聚对技术外溢的作用中,生产性服务厂商的专业化集聚能够有效促进厂商之间知识的扩散和传播,进而促进城市经济增长,而生产性服务业多样化集聚却未能产生明显的技术溢出效应。
其次通过建立面板VAR模型,采用协整分析、脉冲响应和方差分解的动态经济学方法,对我国286个城市生产性服务业集聚对经济增长的影响进行了实证分析。结果表明：生产性服务业专业化、多样性及其规模与城市经济增长之间具有长期的动态均衡关系,且存在生产性服务业专业化与多样化对经济增长的单向因果关系。生产性服务业专业化短期内对经济增长就有明显的促进作用,但长期影响不断降低且最终影响效果较弱,而在预测期间内多样化在短期对城市经济增长影响不显著,但在长期对经济增长的影响效果以递增的幅度不断增加。生产性服务业专业化和多样化集聚在城市经济增长不同阶段的影响效果具有互补性。
其三在新经济地理的框架下构建理论、计量模型,检验了生产性服务业的空间溢出效应对经济增长的影响。结果显示,生产性服务业空间集聚对经济增长的有效空间作用范围为100公里；有效距离范围内城市间生产性服务业集聚对经济增长的影响由东向西依次递减。随着经济增长分位数增加,有效空间范围内生产性服务业集聚对经济增长的边际贡献不断提高,与经济欠发达城市相比,生产性服务业空间集聚规模在经济发展水平较高城市的影响更大。
其四在外部性理论和新经济地理理论的综合框架下检验了生产性服务业集聚对经济增长及其结构效应和竞争效应的影响。结果显示,生产性服务业专业化和多样化集聚主要从供给方面通过影响短期竞争因素作用于经济增长,且专业化集聚的作用效果更明显；而其空间集聚规模则侧重从需求方面通过影响区域经济结构的长期调整作用于经济增长。生产性服务业专业化集聚对西部地区经济增长的作用甚于东、中部地区；而多样化集聚则对东部和中部经济相对发达地区影响更显著；其空间集聚规模对经济增长的影响由东向西依次递减。伴随经济增长分位数增加,生产性服务业专业化集聚对结构效应和竞争效应的影响均呈先增后减的倒U型发展趋势,但通过竞争效应对经济增长的促进作用更为持久；多样化集聚对结构效应和竞争效应的作用不断增强；空间集聚规模对结构效应的作用不断增强,而对竞争效应的影响则呈先增后减的倒U型趋势。
最后根据理论和实证研究结论,归纳和总结生产性服务业集聚促进经济持续、稳定增长的机制,提出合理选择生产性服务业集聚模式、积极调整产业结构,进而促进区域经济协调、稳定和持续发展的建议。
Producer service is a kind of modern service industry with the characteristics of high concentration degree, high-level knowledge, wide radiation area and high employment rate. It has strong industry relationship and intensive human capital and plays an important role in promoting regional industry's competitive power and the development of economy in a better and quicker way. Producer services, as the main part of modern service industries, have maintained a good momentum of development under bad situation of international politics and economic environment since the global financial crisis and have made a contribution to maintain steady and rapid economic growth in China. However, problems also exist in producer service industry, such as aimlessness, development lag, low proportion and lack of overall point of view. Resolving these problems has obvious practical significance for selecting suitable agglomeration pattern, promoting the industrial structure adjustment, changing the economic growth mode and improving economic efficiency and growth level. But at present, the study of producer service industry's agglomeration pattern, spatial relevance mechanism of producer service industry and economic growth among cities, and its role in adjusting of regional economic structure and developing new competitive strength is not enough in China's academic circles.
This paper builts a unified theoretic analysis framework and specialization agglomeration> diversification agglomeration of producer services and the scale of spatial agglomeration of producer services indexes based on the theory of Marshallian externalities n Jacobs externalities and new economic geography, explores agglomeration effects of producer services from factors and market. We make a deep analysis of the agglomeration patterns of producer services of prefectural or higher level cities in all areas of China, which demonstrates the influencing mechanism of agglomeration of producer services on regional economic growth.
Firstly, this paper has analyzed the effect of specialization agglomeration and variety agglomeration of producer services on economic growth based on controling the scale of agglomeration producer services from the comprehensive view of Marshallian externalities and Jacobs externalities. The results show that the specialization of producer services significantly promoted urban economic growth, while the effect of diversification on economic growth are not significant. This means that the effect of agglomeration of producer services on economic growth mainly for Marshall externalities in China. In the action of agglomeration of producer services on technology spillover, specialization agglomeration can effectively promote the diffusion and propagation of knowledge between producer service firms, and then promote urban economic growth, but diversification agglomeration of producer services failed to produce obvious technology spillover effect.
Sencondly, this paper adopts a dynamic economic method of co-integration analysis> impulse response and variance decomposition to analyze empirically the effects of agglomeration of producer services on economic growth across286cities in China by establishing the panel date VAR mode. The results show that there exist long-term dynamic equilibrium relationships between the scale of producer services, specialization and diversification of producer services and urban economic growth. And there exists one-way causality relationship between specialization, diversification of producer services and economic growth. Specialization of producer services promotes significantly economic growth in the short term, and the long-term effects of which become decreased and weakened. In the prediction period, the effect of diversification on urban economic growth is not significant in the short term, while which is increasing with increasing size in the long term. The effects of specialization agglomeration and diversification agglomeration of producer services are complementary at different stages of urban economic growth.
Thirdly, this paper constructs a theoretical and econometric model to exam the effects of spatial spillover effects of producer services on urban economic growth based on the framework of new economic geography. The results show that, the spatial agglomeration of producer services have significant effects on economic growth, and its effective action range of is100km. The effects of the agglomeration of producer services in the effective action range on economic growth have a descending order from east to west. There exist significant differences among the marginal effects of the spatial accessibility of producer services on different percentiles of economic growth. With economic growth increases, the marginal distribution of the spatial agglomeration of producer services in the effective range to the economic growth is increasing. Compared with underdeveloped cities, the spatial agglomeration scale of producer services has an greater effect on economic growth in the cities with higher level economic development.
Fourthly, this paper builds theoretical and econometric model based on the integrated framework of externalities and new economic geography, and makes a study on the effects of the agglomeration of producer services on composition effects and competition effects of economic growth. The results find that, specialization and diversification agglomeration of producer services positively affect economic growth mainly from the supply side through short-term competitive factors, and the effect of specialization agglomeration is more significant. However, the spatial agglomeration scale of producer services focuses on the demand side to impact the economic growth through affecting the long-term adjustment of regional economic structure. The effect of specialization agglomeration of producer services is larger in the west than that in the east and central part, and the effects of diversification agglomeration are more significant in the eastern and central part. The effect of spatial agglomeration scale on economic growth is decreasing from east to west. With economic growth percentile increases, the effects of specialization agglomeration of producer services on composition effect and competition effect exhibit inverted U-shaped trend, but the promoting effect on economic growth through competition effect is more sustainable, and the effects of diversification agglomeration on composition effect and competition effect are increasing. The effect of spatial agglomeration scale of producer services on composition effect is increasing, but the effect on competition effect exhibits inverted U-shaped trend.
Finally, this paper has summarized and concluded the mechanism of agglomeration of producer services promoting economic growth continuously and stably according to the theory and empirical analysis, and proposed polictial recommendations of selecting agglomeration patterns of producer services properly, adjusting the industrial structure positively, and then promoting the coordinated> stable and sustainable developing of regional economic.
本文在马歇尔外部性、雅各布斯外部性和新经济地理理论基础上构建统一的理论分析框架和生产性服务业专业化集聚、多样化集聚以及生产性服务业空间集聚规模指标,从要素和市场两个方面探讨生产性服务业的集聚效应,深入分析我国各地区地级及以上城市生产性服务业集聚模式,揭示生产性服务业集聚对区域经济增长的作用机制。
本文首先在控制了生产性服务业本地集聚规模情况下,从马歇尔外部性和雅各布斯外部性的综合视角探讨生产性服务业专业化集聚和多样化集聚对经济增长的影响。结果表明,生产性服务业专业化显著促进了城市经济增长,而多样化对经济增长的作用却不显著。这意味着我国生产性服务业集聚对经济增长的作用主要表现为马歇尔外部性。即在生产性服务业集聚对技术外溢的作用中,生产性服务厂商的专业化集聚能够有效促进厂商之间知识的扩散和传播,进而促进城市经济增长,而生产性服务业多样化集聚却未能产生明显的技术溢出效应。
其次通过建立面板VAR模型,采用协整分析、脉冲响应和方差分解的动态经济学方法,对我国286个城市生产性服务业集聚对经济增长的影响进行了实证分析。结果表明：生产性服务业专业化、多样性及其规模与城市经济增长之间具有长期的动态均衡关系,且存在生产性服务业专业化与多样化对经济增长的单向因果关系。生产性服务业专业化短期内对经济增长就有明显的促进作用,但长期影响不断降低且最终影响效果较弱,而在预测期间内多样化在短期对城市经济增长影响不显著,但在长期对经济增长的影响效果以递增的幅度不断增加。生产性服务业专业化和多样化集聚在城市经济增长不同阶段的影响效果具有互补性。
其三在新经济地理的框架下构建理论、计量模型,检验了生产性服务业的空间溢出效应对经济增长的影响。结果显示,生产性服务业空间集聚对经济增长的有效空间作用范围为100公里；有效距离范围内城市间生产性服务业集聚对经济增长的影响由东向西依次递减。随着经济增长分位数增加,有效空间范围内生产性服务业集聚对经济增长的边际贡献不断提高,与经济欠发达城市相比,生产性服务业空间集聚规模在经济发展水平较高城市的影响更大。
其四在外部性理论和新经济地理理论的综合框架下检验了生产性服务业集聚对经济增长及其结构效应和竞争效应的影响。结果显示,生产性服务业专业化和多样化集聚主要从供给方面通过影响短期竞争因素作用于经济增长,且专业化集聚的作用效果更明显；而其空间集聚规模则侧重从需求方面通过影响区域经济结构的长期调整作用于经济增长。生产性服务业专业化集聚对西部地区经济增长的作用甚于东、中部地区；而多样化集聚则对东部和中部经济相对发达地区影响更显著；其空间集聚规模对经济增长的影响由东向西依次递减。伴随经济增长分位数增加,生产性服务业专业化集聚对结构效应和竞争效应的影响均呈先增后减的倒U型发展趋势,但通过竞争效应对经济增长的促进作用更为持久；多样化集聚对结构效应和竞争效应的作用不断增强；空间集聚规模对结构效应的作用不断增强,而对竞争效应的影响则呈先增后减的倒U型趋势。
最后根据理论和实证研究结论,归纳和总结生产性服务业集聚促进经济持续、稳定增长的机制,提出合理选择生产性服务业集聚模式、积极调整产业结构,进而促进区域经济协调、稳定和持续发展的建议。
Producer service is a kind of modern service industry with the characteristics of high concentration degree, high-level knowledge, wide radiation area and high employment rate. It has strong industry relationship and intensive human capital and plays an important role in promoting regional industry's competitive power and the development of economy in a better and quicker way. Producer services, as the main part of modern service industries, have maintained a good momentum of development under bad situation of international politics and economic environment since the global financial crisis and have made a contribution to maintain steady and rapid economic growth in China. However, problems also exist in producer service industry, such as aimlessness, development lag, low proportion and lack of overall point of view. Resolving these problems has obvious practical significance for selecting suitable agglomeration pattern, promoting the industrial structure adjustment, changing the economic growth mode and improving economic efficiency and growth level. But at present, the study of producer service industry's agglomeration pattern, spatial relevance mechanism of producer service industry and economic growth among cities, and its role in adjusting of regional economic structure and developing new competitive strength is not enough in China's academic circles.
This paper builts a unified theoretic analysis framework and specialization agglomeration> diversification agglomeration of producer services and the scale of spatial agglomeration of producer services indexes based on the theory of Marshallian externalities n Jacobs externalities and new economic geography, explores agglomeration effects of producer services from factors and market. We make a deep analysis of the agglomeration patterns of producer services of prefectural or higher level cities in all areas of China, which demonstrates the influencing mechanism of agglomeration of producer services on regional economic growth.
Firstly, this paper has analyzed the effect of specialization agglomeration and variety agglomeration of producer services on economic growth based on controling the scale of agglomeration producer services from the comprehensive view of Marshallian externalities and Jacobs externalities. The results show that the specialization of producer services significantly promoted urban economic growth, while the effect of diversification on economic growth are not significant. This means that the effect of agglomeration of producer services on economic growth mainly for Marshall externalities in China. In the action of agglomeration of producer services on technology spillover, specialization agglomeration can effectively promote the diffusion and propagation of knowledge between producer service firms, and then promote urban economic growth, but diversification agglomeration of producer services failed to produce obvious technology spillover effect.
Sencondly, this paper adopts a dynamic economic method of co-integration analysis> impulse response and variance decomposition to analyze empirically the effects of agglomeration of producer services on economic growth across286cities in China by establishing the panel date VAR mode. The results show that there exist long-term dynamic equilibrium relationships between the scale of producer services, specialization and diversification of producer services and urban economic growth. And there exists one-way causality relationship between specialization, diversification of producer services and economic growth. Specialization of producer services promotes significantly economic growth in the short term, and the long-term effects of which become decreased and weakened. In the prediction period, the effect of diversification on urban economic growth is not significant in the short term, while which is increasing with increasing size in the long term. The effects of specialization agglomeration and diversification agglomeration of producer services are complementary at different stages of urban economic growth.
Thirdly, this paper constructs a theoretical and econometric model to exam the effects of spatial spillover effects of producer services on urban economic growth based on the framework of new economic geography. The results show that, the spatial agglomeration of producer services have significant effects on economic growth, and its effective action range of is100km. The effects of the agglomeration of producer services in the effective action range on economic growth have a descending order from east to west. There exist significant differences among the marginal effects of the spatial accessibility of producer services on different percentiles of economic growth. With economic growth increases, the marginal distribution of the spatial agglomeration of producer services in the effective range to the economic growth is increasing. Compared with underdeveloped cities, the spatial agglomeration scale of producer services has an greater effect on economic growth in the cities with higher level economic development.
Fourthly, this paper builds theoretical and econometric model based on the integrated framework of externalities and new economic geography, and makes a study on the effects of the agglomeration of producer services on composition effects and competition effects of economic growth. The results find that, specialization and diversification agglomeration of producer services positively affect economic growth mainly from the supply side through short-term competitive factors, and the effect of specialization agglomeration is more significant. However, the spatial agglomeration scale of producer services focuses on the demand side to impact the economic growth through affecting the long-term adjustment of regional economic structure. The effect of specialization agglomeration of producer services is larger in the west than that in the east and central part, and the effects of diversification agglomeration are more significant in the eastern and central part. The effect of spatial agglomeration scale on economic growth is decreasing from east to west. With economic growth percentile increases, the effects of specialization agglomeration of producer services on composition effect and competition effect exhibit inverted U-shaped trend, but the promoting effect on economic growth through competition effect is more sustainable, and the effects of diversification agglomeration on composition effect and competition effect are increasing. The effect of spatial agglomeration scale of producer services on composition effect is increasing, but the effect on competition effect exhibits inverted U-shaped trend.
Finally, this paper has summarized and concluded the mechanism of agglomeration of producer services promoting economic growth continuously and stably according to the theory and empirical analysis, and proposed polictial recommendations of selecting agglomeration patterns of producer services properly, adjusting the industrial structure positively, and then promoting the coordinated> stable and sustainable developing of regional economic.
引文
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