自然资源禀赋与俄罗斯经济增长
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摘要
本文主要研究丰裕的自然资源对俄罗斯经济增长的影响。本文针对转轨国家的特点,提出用来解释自然资源与经济增长关系的理论分析框架与模型,并重点分析俄罗斯自然禀赋与经济增长之间的关系,探寻自然资源对俄罗斯经济增长产生的影响、作用机制以及制度在其中所起的重要作用。
论文的主要观点是:(1)本文模型表明,自然资源禀赋会对经济产生很大影响,但这种影响有多种可能,制度和政策是关键因素。良好的制度和正确的经济政策能够避免资源诅咒,相反低质量的制度和错误的宏观政策会使本国陷入资源诅咒之中。特别是对转轨经济体来说,在制度重建过程中,新旧体制的重叠、脱节和矛盾会产生各种“空档”和“缝隙”,再加上丰裕的资源所产生的丰厚的经济收益缓解了改革的压力,降低了改革的迫切性,影响改革和经济发展的速度,同时也产生收入的不平等、社会紧张与各种寻租腐败行为。这种不健全的制度使得丰裕的自然资源对转轨经济体的经济发展产生负面影响,容易形成资源诅咒现象;(2)俄罗斯资源依赖型经济特征日益明显,这种经济结构使俄罗斯经济增长极易受到国际市场石油价格的冲击,并且显示出“荷兰病”的征兆;(3)在对俄罗斯自然资源作用机制进行深入分析的基础上,本文发现由于受到丰裕的自然资源的影响,俄罗斯在经济转轨过程中,制度建设存在很多不完善和不协调的地方,如滞后的机构改革、寻租和腐败、收入和财富分配不平等等。当低质量的制度发展路径形成和确立后,将具有一定的稳定性和持久性,而正是这种弱化的制度建设使俄罗斯陷入资源诅咒之中;(4)借鉴俄罗斯摆脱资源诅咒所采取的政策措施,并结合我国资源丰裕的中西部地区实际特点,提出应该建立地区资源发展稳定基金,调整产业结构,发展创新型经济,优化产权制度安排等政策建议;(5)本文认为虽然俄罗斯积极采取各种措施极力希望摆脱对自然资源的依赖,但这是一项长期的任务,短期内仍然无法摆脱倚重能源的经济结构。因此能源合作依然是中俄两国合作的重要内容。由于努力改善经济结构,发展创新经济和高新技术产业是俄罗斯的主要战略方针,中俄合作的发展方向也必然从传统的自然资源等商品贸易转向高新技术产业合作。
This paper inquired about abundant natural resource’influence on the Russian economic growth and explored the channel and means. This topic was chosen mainly because of its great theoretical and practical significance: First, the relation between the natural resources and economic growth is the focus of various countries’attention. Experts and scholars from various countries have different perspectives on the negative relation and the associated mechanism about the natural resources and economic growth. This paper took the transition countries—Russia as the research object, discussed the impact and its mechanism of the abundant natural resources on Russia economic growth in the process of transition to a market economy, which was helpful to further strengthen the comprehending the transition economic growth influence factor, and also contribute to an accurate grasp of the natural resources’role in the economic development. Second, based on the full considering the transition economic characteristics and the necessary complementary and amendment to the existing theory, the paper established a theoretical framework and model, and analyzed the natural resources’impact on Russia’s economic growth and which institution played role through the analysis to Russia’s resource dependent economic characteristics. This greatly expanded the fundamental research field, and overcame the limitations of the original theoretical research, which had great denotation to deepening the discipline development on the resource economics, development economics, and transition economics. Third, which can provide the theory instruction to promote China’s region with abundant resource in economic development, and enhance the Sino-Russian cooperation in energy and high-tech fields, thus had great practical significance.
This paper selected this subject was precisely based on the reality and fundamental research need, studied the economic growth in transition country Russia from the perspective of natural resources, and analyzed whether Russia’s economic growth present a“resource curse”phenomenon, and emphasized the institute’s important role.
The paper is organized as follows: chapter 1 and 2 were the paper preparing, chapter 3, 4 and 5 were the focus of the research, chapter 6 was the policy recommendations, and chapter 7 gave the conclusion.
Chapter 1“Introduction”indicated and explains the paper’s subject, basic concepts, research methods and research framework, and pointed out paper’s innovations.
Chapter 2“theoretical basis and literature review”firstly sorted out the correlation theories about natural resources and economic growth, and evaluated the classical growth theory, neo-classical growth theory (exogenous growth theory), new growth theory (endogenous growth theory) and the institutional economics. Second, review were made about the relevant front literatures, including the natural resources’influence on the economic growth in a countries and regions within a country and its transmission mechanism, with special attention for the research of Russia and other countries in transition.
Chapter 3“the theoretical model of the economic transition and resource curse”conducted some theoretical and empirical research on economic transition and institutional change, and proposed the theoretical analysis frame and model to explain the natural resources and economic growth in transition economies. The theoretical model indicated that the natural resource endowments have a significant impact on the economy, but this effect may come from many different sources, institutions and policies are key aspects. The good institution and correct economic policy can avoid the resource curse, on the contrary the low-quality institution and wrong macroeconomic policy will cause the country to fall into the resource course. Especially for transition economies, in the institution reconstruction process, the overlap and contradiction of the new and old systems would have various "neutral" and "cracks", together the huge economic benefits generated from the abundant resources would mitigate the pressure for reform, reduce the urgency of reform, but also generate income inequality, social tension and a variety of rent-seeking corruption. This defective institution made plenty natural resources have the negative influence to the transition economies, thus created a resource curse phenomenon.
Chapter 4“the Russian economic transition and natural resources development”first evaluated the process of economic transition in Russia and its performance. In the economic transition, Russia had experienced sustained economic recession; only after 1999 the country gradually obtained the restoration. The length of the economic crisis, the extent of recessions, and total economic output reduction range was rare in history, long-term deterioration of the economic situation caused Russia's economic strength is seriously affected, and severely damaged Russia's social development; Second, analyzes the Russian natural resource endowment and the development situation. Russia is the best natural resource endowments among the world. Russia is the numerous mineral resource important producer and the exporter, occupied the important position in the world mineral resource production and the trade; Third, the Russian oil and gas sector reforms and development were summarized. In transition process, Russia also carried out resource management system reform, a large scale privatization and liberalization was carried on in the oil and gas industry. Finally conducts the research to the Russian’s related policy and the international cooperation in the energy sector. "Russian Energy Strategy before 2020, the basic principle" is the Russian energy sector’s guidance documents by 2020, which has the important guiding sense to the Russian natural resource sector development. Meanwhile, in order to attract foreign investment in natural resources, the Russian Federal Government issued the "Foreign Investment Law", "Mineral Resources Law", "Tax Law", " Natural Monopoly Law ", "Customs Tariff Act" and other policies, these laws and regulations provided the necessary legal protection for the adjustment of the oil and gas revenue, the import and export duties, and protecting the foreign investment. In early transition, Russia attract a large number of foreign investment using production sharing agreements etc., along with Russia's economic situation gradually improved, the government strengthened the control of the economy, the government displayed the resisting the foreign capital entering energy sectors in many transactions, Russia made many limit in the oil gas resources sector for the foreign capital gradually.
Chapter 5“the natural resources’influence on Russia's economic growth”proved that Russia had the resource-dependent economic characteristics, and discussed whether Russia had fall into a "resource curse" from the industrial structure, trade structure and investment structure, this chapter The research indicated that Russia's resource-dependent economic structure leads Russian economy more vulnerable to international oil price shocks, and shows the“Dutch disease”symptoms. Based on the thorough analysis to the Russian natural resource function mechanism, this paper find that, due to the abundant natural resources, there were many incomplete and uncoordinated place, such as lagging institution reforms, rent-seeking and corruption, inequality of income and wealth distribution. When the low-quality institution’s development path has established, it will have a certain stability and durability, and it is this weak institution construction brought Russian into the resource curse.
Chapter 6“the relevant policy recommendations”made some suggestion about China’s region with abundance resources’economic development and Sino-Russian cooperation. Drawing the lesson from the Russian policies dealing with the resource curse, and combined with China’s central and western regions’actual characteristics which having the abundant resources, the paper proposed that the local resources development stabilization fund should be established, and adjusting the industrial structure, developing innovation economy, optimizing property institution arrangement and other policy recommendations. (5) This paper argues that, although Russia actively took various measures to get rid of natural resources dependence, but it is a long-term task. Russia’s economic structure depend on the natural resource will not change in short-term. Therefore the cooperation in the field of energy is still the Sino-Russian cooperation important content. Because improving the economic structure diligently, the development innovation economy and the high technology and new technology industry are Russia's main strategic concept, the Sino-Russian cooperation development direction also inevitably turn from the traditional natural resource merchandise trades to the high technology industry cooperation.
Chapter 7“conclusion and outlook”summarized the main points of this paper, and make the prospect of further research.
论文的主要观点是:(1)本文模型表明,自然资源禀赋会对经济产生很大影响,但这种影响有多种可能,制度和政策是关键因素。良好的制度和正确的经济政策能够避免资源诅咒,相反低质量的制度和错误的宏观政策会使本国陷入资源诅咒之中。特别是对转轨经济体来说,在制度重建过程中,新旧体制的重叠、脱节和矛盾会产生各种“空档”和“缝隙”,再加上丰裕的资源所产生的丰厚的经济收益缓解了改革的压力,降低了改革的迫切性,影响改革和经济发展的速度,同时也产生收入的不平等、社会紧张与各种寻租腐败行为。这种不健全的制度使得丰裕的自然资源对转轨经济体的经济发展产生负面影响,容易形成资源诅咒现象;(2)俄罗斯资源依赖型经济特征日益明显,这种经济结构使俄罗斯经济增长极易受到国际市场石油价格的冲击,并且显示出“荷兰病”的征兆;(3)在对俄罗斯自然资源作用机制进行深入分析的基础上,本文发现由于受到丰裕的自然资源的影响,俄罗斯在经济转轨过程中,制度建设存在很多不完善和不协调的地方,如滞后的机构改革、寻租和腐败、收入和财富分配不平等等。当低质量的制度发展路径形成和确立后,将具有一定的稳定性和持久性,而正是这种弱化的制度建设使俄罗斯陷入资源诅咒之中;(4)借鉴俄罗斯摆脱资源诅咒所采取的政策措施,并结合我国资源丰裕的中西部地区实际特点,提出应该建立地区资源发展稳定基金,调整产业结构,发展创新型经济,优化产权制度安排等政策建议;(5)本文认为虽然俄罗斯积极采取各种措施极力希望摆脱对自然资源的依赖,但这是一项长期的任务,短期内仍然无法摆脱倚重能源的经济结构。因此能源合作依然是中俄两国合作的重要内容。由于努力改善经济结构,发展创新经济和高新技术产业是俄罗斯的主要战略方针,中俄合作的发展方向也必然从传统的自然资源等商品贸易转向高新技术产业合作。
This paper inquired about abundant natural resource’influence on the Russian economic growth and explored the channel and means. This topic was chosen mainly because of its great theoretical and practical significance: First, the relation between the natural resources and economic growth is the focus of various countries’attention. Experts and scholars from various countries have different perspectives on the negative relation and the associated mechanism about the natural resources and economic growth. This paper took the transition countries—Russia as the research object, discussed the impact and its mechanism of the abundant natural resources on Russia economic growth in the process of transition to a market economy, which was helpful to further strengthen the comprehending the transition economic growth influence factor, and also contribute to an accurate grasp of the natural resources’role in the economic development. Second, based on the full considering the transition economic characteristics and the necessary complementary and amendment to the existing theory, the paper established a theoretical framework and model, and analyzed the natural resources’impact on Russia’s economic growth and which institution played role through the analysis to Russia’s resource dependent economic characteristics. This greatly expanded the fundamental research field, and overcame the limitations of the original theoretical research, which had great denotation to deepening the discipline development on the resource economics, development economics, and transition economics. Third, which can provide the theory instruction to promote China’s region with abundant resource in economic development, and enhance the Sino-Russian cooperation in energy and high-tech fields, thus had great practical significance.
This paper selected this subject was precisely based on the reality and fundamental research need, studied the economic growth in transition country Russia from the perspective of natural resources, and analyzed whether Russia’s economic growth present a“resource curse”phenomenon, and emphasized the institute’s important role.
The paper is organized as follows: chapter 1 and 2 were the paper preparing, chapter 3, 4 and 5 were the focus of the research, chapter 6 was the policy recommendations, and chapter 7 gave the conclusion.
Chapter 1“Introduction”indicated and explains the paper’s subject, basic concepts, research methods and research framework, and pointed out paper’s innovations.
Chapter 2“theoretical basis and literature review”firstly sorted out the correlation theories about natural resources and economic growth, and evaluated the classical growth theory, neo-classical growth theory (exogenous growth theory), new growth theory (endogenous growth theory) and the institutional economics. Second, review were made about the relevant front literatures, including the natural resources’influence on the economic growth in a countries and regions within a country and its transmission mechanism, with special attention for the research of Russia and other countries in transition.
Chapter 3“the theoretical model of the economic transition and resource curse”conducted some theoretical and empirical research on economic transition and institutional change, and proposed the theoretical analysis frame and model to explain the natural resources and economic growth in transition economies. The theoretical model indicated that the natural resource endowments have a significant impact on the economy, but this effect may come from many different sources, institutions and policies are key aspects. The good institution and correct economic policy can avoid the resource curse, on the contrary the low-quality institution and wrong macroeconomic policy will cause the country to fall into the resource course. Especially for transition economies, in the institution reconstruction process, the overlap and contradiction of the new and old systems would have various "neutral" and "cracks", together the huge economic benefits generated from the abundant resources would mitigate the pressure for reform, reduce the urgency of reform, but also generate income inequality, social tension and a variety of rent-seeking corruption. This defective institution made plenty natural resources have the negative influence to the transition economies, thus created a resource curse phenomenon.
Chapter 4“the Russian economic transition and natural resources development”first evaluated the process of economic transition in Russia and its performance. In the economic transition, Russia had experienced sustained economic recession; only after 1999 the country gradually obtained the restoration. The length of the economic crisis, the extent of recessions, and total economic output reduction range was rare in history, long-term deterioration of the economic situation caused Russia's economic strength is seriously affected, and severely damaged Russia's social development; Second, analyzes the Russian natural resource endowment and the development situation. Russia is the best natural resource endowments among the world. Russia is the numerous mineral resource important producer and the exporter, occupied the important position in the world mineral resource production and the trade; Third, the Russian oil and gas sector reforms and development were summarized. In transition process, Russia also carried out resource management system reform, a large scale privatization and liberalization was carried on in the oil and gas industry. Finally conducts the research to the Russian’s related policy and the international cooperation in the energy sector. "Russian Energy Strategy before 2020, the basic principle" is the Russian energy sector’s guidance documents by 2020, which has the important guiding sense to the Russian natural resource sector development. Meanwhile, in order to attract foreign investment in natural resources, the Russian Federal Government issued the "Foreign Investment Law", "Mineral Resources Law", "Tax Law", " Natural Monopoly Law ", "Customs Tariff Act" and other policies, these laws and regulations provided the necessary legal protection for the adjustment of the oil and gas revenue, the import and export duties, and protecting the foreign investment. In early transition, Russia attract a large number of foreign investment using production sharing agreements etc., along with Russia's economic situation gradually improved, the government strengthened the control of the economy, the government displayed the resisting the foreign capital entering energy sectors in many transactions, Russia made many limit in the oil gas resources sector for the foreign capital gradually.
Chapter 5“the natural resources’influence on Russia's economic growth”proved that Russia had the resource-dependent economic characteristics, and discussed whether Russia had fall into a "resource curse" from the industrial structure, trade structure and investment structure, this chapter The research indicated that Russia's resource-dependent economic structure leads Russian economy more vulnerable to international oil price shocks, and shows the“Dutch disease”symptoms. Based on the thorough analysis to the Russian natural resource function mechanism, this paper find that, due to the abundant natural resources, there were many incomplete and uncoordinated place, such as lagging institution reforms, rent-seeking and corruption, inequality of income and wealth distribution. When the low-quality institution’s development path has established, it will have a certain stability and durability, and it is this weak institution construction brought Russian into the resource curse.
Chapter 6“the relevant policy recommendations”made some suggestion about China’s region with abundance resources’economic development and Sino-Russian cooperation. Drawing the lesson from the Russian policies dealing with the resource curse, and combined with China’s central and western regions’actual characteristics which having the abundant resources, the paper proposed that the local resources development stabilization fund should be established, and adjusting the industrial structure, developing innovation economy, optimizing property institution arrangement and other policy recommendations. (5) This paper argues that, although Russia actively took various measures to get rid of natural resources dependence, but it is a long-term task. Russia’s economic structure depend on the natural resource will not change in short-term. Therefore the cooperation in the field of energy is still the Sino-Russian cooperation important content. Because improving the economic structure diligently, the development innovation economy and the high technology and new technology industry are Russia's main strategic concept, the Sino-Russian cooperation development direction also inevitably turn from the traditional natural resource merchandise trades to the high technology industry cooperation.
Chapter 7“conclusion and outlook”summarized the main points of this paper, and make the prospect of further research.
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