供应网络合作伙伴选择和合作风险研究
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摘要
随着科学技术的高度发展和经济全球化程度的日益加深,客户个性化需求的不断增加,社会分工日益精细化。生产和销售活动中各种参与者之间的互动和相互依赖关系越来越呈现出复杂化,这些合作企业组合在一起构成了供应网络。供应网络结构的错综复杂性、外部环境的不稳定性和供应合作关系管理者的精益化,使供应网络越来越“脆弱”,呈现出各种需要研究的问题。
     本文认为,供应网络所具有的共生性、自组织性和嵌入性是供应网络合作关系呈现出复杂化局面的原因,这些特性也说明了供应网络中的合作关系得以维系的原因。对于供应网络而言,稳定和效益应该是评价整个供应网络的重要目标,运行成本则是整个网络合作伙伴的选择问题的重要的约束。通过对供应网络合作伙伴的选择和评价,提高整个网络的运行效率,使供应网络能够以较低的成本,长时间、高效率地运行。本文确定了以时间、利润、服务质量、稳定性和流动资金五个指标最优作为供应商对零售商的选择目标,以多目标最优实现供应商对零售商的选择。并建立了一个多目标供应网络合作伙伴选择的决策模型,描述供应网络合作伙伴最优选择的问题,采用自适应遗传算法对供应网络合作伙伴选择优化问题的求解过程进行了探讨。但是,合理的合作伙伴选择和评价也不能完全消除供应网络中的风险。供应网络的复杂性给供应网络带来的风险,会给供应网络造成不可逆转的损害和巨大损失,甚至造成供应网络关系的断裂。有效的对供应网络风险进行管理与控制,能够使供应网络更加富有弹性,使供应网络能够避免或者减少由于风险带来的损失。良好的风险协调管理还能提高供应链的运作效率,降低供应网络的成本。本文对供应网络中的各类风险进行了界定和浅析,主要集中讨论供应网络中一类重要的基础性风险即合作风险,并对供应网络中的合作风险进行了定性和定量的探讨。在分析了供应网络中合作风险的不同表象和不同侧面后,借用金融风险损失评估和多目标决策中对偏好关系的“卡方”方法,从不同的角度来测度供应网络中的合作风险。供应网络中各企业的根本目的是追求其自身经济利益的最大化,利益是各企业合作的基础。供应网络成员企业之间的利益分配是供应网络管理中的一个关键问题,对于供应网络的持续稳定发展起决定作用。利益分配的关键是使所有供应网络中的成员企业都在最大程度上认为分配方案使公平合理的。通过对多人合作决策中基于Shapley值法的利益分配结果的深入分析,提出了利益调整的新的方案;确定了更加详细更加合理的供应网络利益分配的方法。另外,供应网络的良性运作以及供应网络中合作伙伴关系的协调,还受到供应网络中合作伙伴企业之间文化相容以及知识学习等问题的影响。这些影响则呈现出隐性的特征,对供应网络良性运作有着“潜移默化”的作用。换句话说,供应网络合作伙伴企业之间的协调,既有利益最大化为导向的管理问题,也包含着各个相关利益主体以文化要素和知识学习为纽带的社会属性。信任、企业文化、知识等非经济的社会性因素的协调作用在供应网络合作关系中发挥着重要影响。
     对供应网络中合作伙伴关系和合作风险的探讨,立足于对供应网络复杂性的认识。不仅选择了多个目标对合作伙伴选择和评估进行了分析,也对供应网络中合作风险进行了定性和定量的研究,同时浅析供应网络协调管理中具有社会属性的文化和知识学习的问题。本文独特的研究视角,对供应网络合作关系的协调管理具有一定的实践指导意义。
With the rapidly development of science and technology, the globalization of the world economics is deepening. The individuation of the customer's demand continuously increases. The partition of the different social section's function is becoming meticulous. The interaction and relationship between the partner included in the production and market appears more and more complexity. All of these partners constitute the supply networks. Because of the complexity of structure, instability of environment ,lean corporate supply relationship, supply networks been becoming more and more frangible. It appears a lot of various issues.
     The dissertation's study considers that the symbiosis, self-organizational and the embeddedness lead to the complexity of supply networks. At the same time, these characteristics illustrate the maintenance of the corporate relationships among supply networks. For the supply networks, the stability and profit are the two important objectives of the whole supply network's evaluation. The cost of the supply network's operation is the important constraint of the whole supply network's partner selection. By the selection and evaluation of the whole supply network's partner, it can improves the efficiency of the whole supply networks and makes the supply networks operate under the lower cost and high efficiency for a long time. This article confirms five optimization indexes (time, profit, the quality of the service, stability and the capital flow) as the selection objectives and take advantage of the multi-objective optimization to implement the partner's selection. By the establishment of the multi-objective selection decision model, we can describe the problem of the supply network's partnership optimization and apply the self-adaptive genetic algorithm to solve the optimization problem. However, the reasonable partner selection and evaluation cannot avoid the supply risk completely. The complexity of the supply networks will cause huge damage and incalculable loss, even thorough disruption of supply chain. Managing & controlling supply risk effectively make supply networks more resilient. A resilient supply chain is more robust so that it can mitigate even avoid the loss caused by risk. It also can improve operation efficiency of supply networks and reduce the cost of supply networks which is helpful to the continuous development of corporation. This article distinguishes and analyses the various supply risk, and then discuss intensively a kind of important basic risk—corporate risk from both quality and quantity sides. After discusses of corporate risk's different respects, we estimate the supply network's corporate risk by two different method. One method takes advantage of the financial risk and loss evaluation thought, other is the chi-square for obtaining a priority vector from multiplicative and fuzzy preference relations. The cardinal aim of the firm in the supply networks is to pursue the maximization of the profit. The profit is the basis of the firm's corporation. The assignation of the profit between the firms included in the supply works is the key problem and affect the sustainable stability in the supply networks management. By the deeply analysis on the Shapley-value method, we improve it and propose a new program which assign the profit of the supply networks more reasonable. In addiction, the operation of the supply networks and the coordination of the corporate relationship are influenced by the culture and knowledge learning between the partnerships in the supply networks. These factors impact the operation of the supply networks potentially. In other words, the coordination of the corporate relationship in the supply networks concerns the management issue directed by the maximization of the profit. At the same time, it includes some socialized factors between the interrelated subject, such as culture and knowledge-learning. Trust、firm culture and knowledge sharing influence and coordinate the operation of the supply networks indirectly.
     This dissertation discusses the cooperation partnership and cooperation risks in supply network based on acknowledge of supply network's complexity. A multi-objective selection and evaluation method is employed to study the qualitative and quantitative issue in this dissertation. An analysis of social attribute, included culture and learning of knowledge problem, was another contribution of this dissertation. The special perspective in this paper has some practice guidance meaning in the coordination manage cooperation relationship in supply network.
引文
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