基于资源中间品贸易的经济增长模型构建及其应用
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摘要
在当前关于自然资源与经济增长关系的理论研究中,自然资源都是被直接引入总量生产函数的。这种建模方式造成了当前研究在两个方面存在局限:一方面,不论自然资源是被假定为可再生还是不可再生的,这种模型构建方式都会使研究成果在反映自然资源与经济增长关系方面存在一定的片面性,从而无法全面而真实地揭示二者关系的实质;另一方面,资源性产品的国际贸易是经济增长突破资源约束最重要和最直接的手段,但这种模型构建方式使得资源性产品国际贸易的作用无法在现有理论框架下得到体现。
本文提出了资源中间品的概念,并通过资源中间品把自然资源以一种间接参与最终产品生产的方式引入经济增长模型,从而提出了一种新的模型构建思路和方法。本文假定自然资源是完全可再生的,这种假定更加符合人类社会经济发展过程中资源基础稳定且不断扩大的基本事实;同时假定资源中间品生产受边际报酬递减规律的支配,从而体现了自然资源的稀缺程度随着经济规模扩大而不断提高的基本事实,因此在很大程度上解决了当前研究存在的片面性和与现实脱节的问题。此外,本文中的资源中间品是可贸易的,这使得本文所建立的模型可以有效的被用于分析资源性产品国际贸易对经济增长的影响。
为了排除劳动力数量限制因素对本文核心问题的干扰,本文假定分析对象经济体始终处于劳动力过剩状态,并在此基础上沿用了新古典经济增长理论中储蓄率和技术进步外生、市场结构完全竞争等假定条件。在上述建模思想下,本文首先创建了一个封闭条件下的经济增长模型,讨论了不存在对外联系时自然资源对经济增长的约束作用以及在资源约束下经济增长的基本模式;进而在封闭模型的基础上引入资源中间品的国际贸易,进一步构建了一个开放模型,讨论了开放条件下贸易小国自然资源与经济增长关系的基本规律以及资源中间品贸易对经济增长模式的影响。本文构建的基于资源中间品贸易的经济增长模型为分析开放条件下自然资源与经济增长的关系提供了一种新的理论依据和分析框架,也为解决当前研究中存在的上述问题提供了一种新的思路。
本文的研究结论指出:在封闭条件下,经济增长过程中最终产品部门与资源中间品部门的资本投入将始终保持固定的比率,而且经济增长将受到自然资源禀赋的约束,自然资源禀赋数量越高,经济增长的空间就越大;在开放条件下,资源中间品部门的资本存量和产量在给定的资源中间品国际价格下将是固定不变的,经济增长将经历专业化生产资源中间品、出口资源中间品和进口资源中间品三个阶段,当资源中间品的国际价格足够高时,经济增长将可能在专业化生产资源中间品或出口资源中间品阶段进入稳定状态,否则将在资源中间品进口阶段进入稳态;而当资源中间品价格足够低时,一国的经济增长将是可持续的。
应用上述理论模型,本文还讨论了国际资本流动和技术进步等外部冲击对经济增长的影响以及产业政策和贸易政策的实施效果。分析结论说明:
开放条件下资本和资源中间品的边际报酬是既定的,它们取决于资源中间品的国际价格。这会导致劳动力数量不同的国家之间资本边际报酬的差异,从而为国际资本流动提供动力。在国际资本流入并不带来生产函数的变化以及其收入全部汇回母国的假定下,国际直接资本流入并不对东道国经济增长以及收入分配的模式产生实质性影响;本文将国际间接资本流动视为贸易不平衡的表现,由于资本边际报酬的刚性,国际贸易将不存在自动维持平衡的机制,因此经济增长将可能在持续贸易不平衡的环境下进行。在本文建立的分析框架下,与自然资源相关的技术进步可以被区分为资源中间品节约型、资源中间品增产型和资源基础扩张型三种类型,其中资源中间品节约型技术进步的效应集中体现为降低可持续增长的资源中间品国际价格条件;资源中间品增产型技术进步的效应集中体现为对资源中间品部门资本存量、产量及其对经济增长贡献度的影响;而资源基础扩张型技术进步的效应则集中体现为对经济增长空间的开拓。
对产业政策效果的分析结论说明,产业政策的效果在很大程度上受资源中间品国际价格的影响。当资源中间品国际价格较高以致于本国经济增长为不可持续模式时,适度地抑制资源中间品部门或鼓励最终产品部门的生产将带来更快的经济增长速度;而当资源中间品国际价格较低以致于本国经济增长为可持续模式时,适度地鼓励资源中间品部门或抑制最终产品部门的生产将带来更快的经济增长速度。对贸易政策效果分析的结论说明,非数量限制性贸易政策的效果与相应的资源中间品价格变化的效果是等价的,而实施资源中间品出口配额则会从根本上改变出口资源中间品贸易模式下的经济增长模式,适当的出口配额将促使本国资源中间品部门和最终产品部门更加平衡地增长。
In the current research on the relationship between natural resource and economic growth, natural resource has always been directly taken into the aggregate production function. This modeling mode causes two aspects of limitations: on the one hand, current models only partially reflect the properties of natural resource nether as exhaustible or non-exhaustible, and accordingly, unable to entirely and factually explain the essence of the relationships between natural resource and economic growth; on the other hand, international trade on primary goods is the most important and immediate way to break through the restriction of natural resource, but this kind of modeling mode is unable to take the influences of international primary goods trade into consideration within the theoretical framework.
This paper brings forward the concept of 'resource middle goods', and advances a new method on putting natural resource into economic growth models. In this paper, natural resource takes part in producing activities by an indirect way, that is to say, it is though resource middle goods that natural resource is taken into an aggregate production function. Further more, natural resource is totally renewable in the model of this paper. This hypothesis is more close to the reality that natural resource basis has always been stable and expanding during the course of economic development of human society. At the same time, this paper also takes the postulation of diminishing return in resource middle goods production, which can embody the essential fact of increasing scarcity of natural resource along with the expanding of economic scale. By this way, the model in this paper can largely resolve the limitations of current research on defining the properties of natural resource. In addition, resource middle goods are presumed as tradable. This makes it feasible to analyze the influences of resource middle goods international trade on economic growth in the theoretical framework constructed in this paper.
In order to exclude the disturbance of labor restriction on economic growth, this paper assumed that labor is always surplus in the objective country so that the input ratio of labor and other factor is constant. Then, with a set of neoclassical hypothesizes such as exogenous saving rate and technology, complete competition, a close model is established first to show the economic growth mode with nature resource restriction in an autarky economy. Based on the autarky model, international trade on resource middle goods is introduced into the framework to construct an open model. In the open model, this paper discusses the mechanism of how international trade on resource middle goods influences economic growth. The model established in this paper provides a new idea not only on finding a more proper way to introducing natural resource into economic growth model, but also on filling up the vacancy of international primary goods trade in current research about the relationship between natural resource and economic growth. Meanwhile, the paper also put forward a new theoretical framework about the analysis on the relationships between natural resource and economic growth.
Based on the study of this paper, in an autarky economy, the capital input ratio of final goods section and resource middle goods section is constant, and economic growth will be restricted by the endorsement of natural resource, and the stock of natural resource is positively correlated with the limitation of economic increase. And in a small open economy, the capital stock and output of resource middle goods section is constant. Economic growth course will go through three stages: the resource middle goods specialization stage, the resource middle goods exporting stage and the resource middle goods importing stage. When the world price of resource middle goods is high enough, economic growth will enter stable state in resource middle goods specialization stage or the resource middle goods exporting stage, or economic growth will enter stable state in the resource middle goods importing stage. When the world price of resource middle goods is low enough, the economic growth will be durative.
This paper also applies the opening theoretical model mentioned above to analyze the effects of external shocks such as international capital flows and technology progress, and the implementation impacts on economic growth of industrial policy and trade policy. The conclusions are as follow:
In an open economy, the marginal return of capital and resource middle goods is fixed by the world price of resource middle goods. The actual reward of capital will diverse among Countries with deferent labor endorsement, and then courses international capital flows. If direct capital inflows do not bring technology change and all the capital income in host country is sent back to home country, capital inflows do not have essential influences on the of economic growth and income distribution. Indirect capital flows are deemed as the result of trade imbalance in this paper. So the preset capital price will course international trade balance lose the ability of self-poise, and trade imbalance will be a long-run environment of economic growth.
Within the framework establish in this paper, technology progress can be divided into three types: resource middle goods economizing technology progress, resource middle goods production increasing technology progress and natural resource basis expansion technology progress. The main effect of resource middle goods economizing technology progress is the decrease of resource middle goods price condition to durative economic growth. The main effect of resource middle goods production increasing technology progress is the influence on resource middle goods section's capital stock, output and contribution to economic increase. The main effect of natural resource basis expansion technology progress is the expansion of economic growth limitation.
The impacts of industrial policy are largely influence by world resource middle goods price. When world resource middle goods price is too high to realize durative economic growth, oppressive industrial policy to resource middle goods section or encouraging industrial policy to final goods section in proper extent can bring faster economic increase. But when world resource middle goods price is low enough for durative economic growth, encouraging industrial policy to resource middle goods section or oppressive industrial policy to final goods section in proper extent can bring faster economic increase.
The impacts of non-quantity restriction trade policy such as tariff and export subsidy are equivalent to the corresponding the price change of resource middle goods, but the quantity restriction trade policy such as export quota on resource middle goods will fundamentally change the economic growth mode at resource middle goods exporting stage. Proper degree of resource middle goods export quota will make the increase of resource middle goods section and final goods section more balanced.
本文提出了资源中间品的概念,并通过资源中间品把自然资源以一种间接参与最终产品生产的方式引入经济增长模型,从而提出了一种新的模型构建思路和方法。本文假定自然资源是完全可再生的,这种假定更加符合人类社会经济发展过程中资源基础稳定且不断扩大的基本事实;同时假定资源中间品生产受边际报酬递减规律的支配,从而体现了自然资源的稀缺程度随着经济规模扩大而不断提高的基本事实,因此在很大程度上解决了当前研究存在的片面性和与现实脱节的问题。此外,本文中的资源中间品是可贸易的,这使得本文所建立的模型可以有效的被用于分析资源性产品国际贸易对经济增长的影响。
为了排除劳动力数量限制因素对本文核心问题的干扰,本文假定分析对象经济体始终处于劳动力过剩状态,并在此基础上沿用了新古典经济增长理论中储蓄率和技术进步外生、市场结构完全竞争等假定条件。在上述建模思想下,本文首先创建了一个封闭条件下的经济增长模型,讨论了不存在对外联系时自然资源对经济增长的约束作用以及在资源约束下经济增长的基本模式;进而在封闭模型的基础上引入资源中间品的国际贸易,进一步构建了一个开放模型,讨论了开放条件下贸易小国自然资源与经济增长关系的基本规律以及资源中间品贸易对经济增长模式的影响。本文构建的基于资源中间品贸易的经济增长模型为分析开放条件下自然资源与经济增长的关系提供了一种新的理论依据和分析框架,也为解决当前研究中存在的上述问题提供了一种新的思路。
本文的研究结论指出:在封闭条件下,经济增长过程中最终产品部门与资源中间品部门的资本投入将始终保持固定的比率,而且经济增长将受到自然资源禀赋的约束,自然资源禀赋数量越高,经济增长的空间就越大;在开放条件下,资源中间品部门的资本存量和产量在给定的资源中间品国际价格下将是固定不变的,经济增长将经历专业化生产资源中间品、出口资源中间品和进口资源中间品三个阶段,当资源中间品的国际价格足够高时,经济增长将可能在专业化生产资源中间品或出口资源中间品阶段进入稳定状态,否则将在资源中间品进口阶段进入稳态;而当资源中间品价格足够低时,一国的经济增长将是可持续的。
应用上述理论模型,本文还讨论了国际资本流动和技术进步等外部冲击对经济增长的影响以及产业政策和贸易政策的实施效果。分析结论说明:
开放条件下资本和资源中间品的边际报酬是既定的,它们取决于资源中间品的国际价格。这会导致劳动力数量不同的国家之间资本边际报酬的差异,从而为国际资本流动提供动力。在国际资本流入并不带来生产函数的变化以及其收入全部汇回母国的假定下,国际直接资本流入并不对东道国经济增长以及收入分配的模式产生实质性影响;本文将国际间接资本流动视为贸易不平衡的表现,由于资本边际报酬的刚性,国际贸易将不存在自动维持平衡的机制,因此经济增长将可能在持续贸易不平衡的环境下进行。在本文建立的分析框架下,与自然资源相关的技术进步可以被区分为资源中间品节约型、资源中间品增产型和资源基础扩张型三种类型,其中资源中间品节约型技术进步的效应集中体现为降低可持续增长的资源中间品国际价格条件;资源中间品增产型技术进步的效应集中体现为对资源中间品部门资本存量、产量及其对经济增长贡献度的影响;而资源基础扩张型技术进步的效应则集中体现为对经济增长空间的开拓。
对产业政策效果的分析结论说明,产业政策的效果在很大程度上受资源中间品国际价格的影响。当资源中间品国际价格较高以致于本国经济增长为不可持续模式时,适度地抑制资源中间品部门或鼓励最终产品部门的生产将带来更快的经济增长速度;而当资源中间品国际价格较低以致于本国经济增长为可持续模式时,适度地鼓励资源中间品部门或抑制最终产品部门的生产将带来更快的经济增长速度。对贸易政策效果分析的结论说明,非数量限制性贸易政策的效果与相应的资源中间品价格变化的效果是等价的,而实施资源中间品出口配额则会从根本上改变出口资源中间品贸易模式下的经济增长模式,适当的出口配额将促使本国资源中间品部门和最终产品部门更加平衡地增长。
In the current research on the relationship between natural resource and economic growth, natural resource has always been directly taken into the aggregate production function. This modeling mode causes two aspects of limitations: on the one hand, current models only partially reflect the properties of natural resource nether as exhaustible or non-exhaustible, and accordingly, unable to entirely and factually explain the essence of the relationships between natural resource and economic growth; on the other hand, international trade on primary goods is the most important and immediate way to break through the restriction of natural resource, but this kind of modeling mode is unable to take the influences of international primary goods trade into consideration within the theoretical framework.
This paper brings forward the concept of 'resource middle goods', and advances a new method on putting natural resource into economic growth models. In this paper, natural resource takes part in producing activities by an indirect way, that is to say, it is though resource middle goods that natural resource is taken into an aggregate production function. Further more, natural resource is totally renewable in the model of this paper. This hypothesis is more close to the reality that natural resource basis has always been stable and expanding during the course of economic development of human society. At the same time, this paper also takes the postulation of diminishing return in resource middle goods production, which can embody the essential fact of increasing scarcity of natural resource along with the expanding of economic scale. By this way, the model in this paper can largely resolve the limitations of current research on defining the properties of natural resource. In addition, resource middle goods are presumed as tradable. This makes it feasible to analyze the influences of resource middle goods international trade on economic growth in the theoretical framework constructed in this paper.
In order to exclude the disturbance of labor restriction on economic growth, this paper assumed that labor is always surplus in the objective country so that the input ratio of labor and other factor is constant. Then, with a set of neoclassical hypothesizes such as exogenous saving rate and technology, complete competition, a close model is established first to show the economic growth mode with nature resource restriction in an autarky economy. Based on the autarky model, international trade on resource middle goods is introduced into the framework to construct an open model. In the open model, this paper discusses the mechanism of how international trade on resource middle goods influences economic growth. The model established in this paper provides a new idea not only on finding a more proper way to introducing natural resource into economic growth model, but also on filling up the vacancy of international primary goods trade in current research about the relationship between natural resource and economic growth. Meanwhile, the paper also put forward a new theoretical framework about the analysis on the relationships between natural resource and economic growth.
Based on the study of this paper, in an autarky economy, the capital input ratio of final goods section and resource middle goods section is constant, and economic growth will be restricted by the endorsement of natural resource, and the stock of natural resource is positively correlated with the limitation of economic increase. And in a small open economy, the capital stock and output of resource middle goods section is constant. Economic growth course will go through three stages: the resource middle goods specialization stage, the resource middle goods exporting stage and the resource middle goods importing stage. When the world price of resource middle goods is high enough, economic growth will enter stable state in resource middle goods specialization stage or the resource middle goods exporting stage, or economic growth will enter stable state in the resource middle goods importing stage. When the world price of resource middle goods is low enough, the economic growth will be durative.
This paper also applies the opening theoretical model mentioned above to analyze the effects of external shocks such as international capital flows and technology progress, and the implementation impacts on economic growth of industrial policy and trade policy. The conclusions are as follow:
In an open economy, the marginal return of capital and resource middle goods is fixed by the world price of resource middle goods. The actual reward of capital will diverse among Countries with deferent labor endorsement, and then courses international capital flows. If direct capital inflows do not bring technology change and all the capital income in host country is sent back to home country, capital inflows do not have essential influences on the of economic growth and income distribution. Indirect capital flows are deemed as the result of trade imbalance in this paper. So the preset capital price will course international trade balance lose the ability of self-poise, and trade imbalance will be a long-run environment of economic growth.
Within the framework establish in this paper, technology progress can be divided into three types: resource middle goods economizing technology progress, resource middle goods production increasing technology progress and natural resource basis expansion technology progress. The main effect of resource middle goods economizing technology progress is the decrease of resource middle goods price condition to durative economic growth. The main effect of resource middle goods production increasing technology progress is the influence on resource middle goods section's capital stock, output and contribution to economic increase. The main effect of natural resource basis expansion technology progress is the expansion of economic growth limitation.
The impacts of industrial policy are largely influence by world resource middle goods price. When world resource middle goods price is too high to realize durative economic growth, oppressive industrial policy to resource middle goods section or encouraging industrial policy to final goods section in proper extent can bring faster economic increase. But when world resource middle goods price is low enough for durative economic growth, encouraging industrial policy to resource middle goods section or oppressive industrial policy to final goods section in proper extent can bring faster economic increase.
The impacts of non-quantity restriction trade policy such as tariff and export subsidy are equivalent to the corresponding the price change of resource middle goods, but the quantity restriction trade policy such as export quota on resource middle goods will fundamentally change the economic growth mode at resource middle goods exporting stage. Proper degree of resource middle goods export quota will make the increase of resource middle goods section and final goods section more balanced.
引文
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