基于粮食安全的县域耕地压力评价
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摘要
粮食安全关乎国家的安危，是国家保持稳定、发展经济的基础。河南省作为我国粮食主产区对国家粮食安全战略起着重要的作用，被称为“中国花木第一县”的鄢陵县，是河南省传统的农业县，近年来调整种植业结构，推进产业化经营，经济作物种植面积增加，非农用地增加，市场利益的驱使必然促使耕地转化为其它用地，对粮食安全存在潜在的威胁，因此，对鄢陵县进行耕地压力研究，找出影响粮食产量的因素，保障粮食安全对于鄢陵县有现实的影响意义。
本论文以可持续发展理论、人地协调理论、土地稀缺理论、粮食安全理论为理论基础，借助前人研究结果所定义的最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数模型来分析鄢陵县粮食安全情况，对鄢陵县1996-2010年影响耕地压力指数的相关要素进行分析，这些要素包括人口数量、粮食单产、粮食总产、粮食播种面积比重、复种指数、粮食自给率。通过这些要素分析鄢陵县的粮食生产是否能满足现有生活水平的需要，并且借用其他学者的研究成果，把鄢陵县的耕地压力状况和河南省18个地市的耕地压力状况作出比较；同时也分析了鄢陵县分乡镇的耕地压力状况，并对分乡镇的耕地压力指数作出比较，分析了各个乡镇耕地压力指数不同的原因。最后通过GM（1，1）灰色系统模型对影响耕地压力指数的相关因素进行预测，并且预测了鄢陵县在不同粮食自给率水平下的耕地压力指数。论文还对影响鄢陵县实际粮食产量因素进行灰色关联分析，找出了影响粮食单产的主要因素，并提出提高粮食产量，保障粮食安全的相关建议。研究结果表明：
（1）在1996-2010年间，鄢陵县的实际人均耕地面积在不断下降，最小人均耕地面积呈现先升后降的趋势，耕地压力指数的变化趋势和最小人均耕地面积的变化趋势保持一致，在2003年的时候耕地压力指数最大，稍稍大于1，粮食安全受到威胁，这是由于自然灾害所致。其它年间的耕地压力相对较小，耕地压力指数小于1，没有超过耕地预警线，粮食的生产能够满足需求，可以保障粮食安全。总的来说，鄢陵县耕地压力不大，处于粮食安全状态。
（2）对鄢陵县分乡镇的耕地压力进行比较可以发现，耕地压力的不同是由于经济的发展和产业结构的调整，城区所在的地方耕地压力指数最大，耕地压力指数大于2。大马乡和柏梁镇耕地压力指数大于1，由于是花卉生产基地，经济作物的种植面积较大，粮食生产数量相对较少，所以耕地压力也稍大。
（3）对于鄢陵县未来的耕地压力指数预测表明，鄢陵县未来的耕地压力小于1，不会出现粮食危机，可以适当调整种植结构，促进经济发展。但是也要严格控制土地用途，保障粮食安全。
Food security，which relates to the safety of the country, is the basis for countries to maintain stableeconomic development. As China's major grain producing areas, Henan province plays an important role innational food security strategy. Known as the "Chinese flowers County", Yanling county is a traditionalagricultural county in Henan province. In recent years, It has being adjusting planting structure, promotingthe industry management. Driven by market interests is bound to arable land converted to other land, andthe increased acreage of cash crops and non-agricultural land is a potential danger on food security.Therefore, doing researches on Yanling County farmland pressure to identify the impact on foodproduction factors have an effect on ensuring food security for Yanling County reality.
Based on the theory of sustainable development, human co-ordination theory, theory of scarcity ofland, food security theory, the paper analyzes the food security situation in Yanling county with the help ofProfessor Cai Yunlong defined by the minimum per capita arable land area and the pressure index oncropland model, and the relevant elements of the pressure index on cropland from1996to2010. Theseelements include population, grain yield, total grain output, the proportion of area sown to grain, multiplecropping index, food self-sufficiency rate, by which to analyze whether Yanling County's food productioncan meet the needs of the existing standard of living. By borrowing the other research’s results, it makescomparisons between Yanling County's farmland pressure status and the arable land of18cities in HenanProvince pressure situation; it also annalyzes Yanling County townships of cultivated land pressure, andpoints of township farmland pressure index to compare the pressure index on cropland at the township fordifferent reasons. Pressure index on cropland in the last gray system model GM (1,1) to forecast and predict the Yanling County in the different levels of food self-sufficiency rate pressure index on cropland.The gray correlation is used in this paper to analyze the impact of the actual grain yield of factors ofYanling County, in order to identify the main factors affecting the yield of grain, and proposedrecommendations to increase food production to ensure food security.
The results show that:
(1) From1996to2010, real per capita arable land in Yanling County continues to decline, theminimum per capita arable land area showing the trend first and then decreased, consistent with the trendof the pressure index on cropland and the trend of the minimum per capita arable land area. In2003, thepressure index on cropland is the largest, slightly greater than1, food security is threatened, which iscaused by the natural disasters. Arable land pressure in the other years is relatively small, the pressureindex on cropland is less than1, which does not exceed the the farmland warning line, and food productionis sufficient enough to meet people’s demand to ensure food security. Overall, the arable land pressure issmall in Yanling County, in the state of food security.
(2) By comparing the farmland pressure of Yanling County townships, we can find that cultivatedpressure difference is due to the economic development and the adjustment of industrial structure. In urbanareas, the pressure index on cropland is the largest, which is greater than2. The index on cropland inMalaysian Township and Boliang Zhen is greater than1,because both areas are the flower production bases,they have the large acreage of cash crops, and food production is a relatively small.
(3) Pressure index on cropland in Yanling County future projections indicate that the future of YanlingCounty's farmland pressure is less than1, the food crisis will not appear. The planting structure could beadjusted appropriately in order to promote economic development. But land use must be strictly controlledfor food security.
本论文以可持续发展理论、人地协调理论、土地稀缺理论、粮食安全理论为理论基础，借助前人研究结果所定义的最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数模型来分析鄢陵县粮食安全情况，对鄢陵县1996-2010年影响耕地压力指数的相关要素进行分析，这些要素包括人口数量、粮食单产、粮食总产、粮食播种面积比重、复种指数、粮食自给率。通过这些要素分析鄢陵县的粮食生产是否能满足现有生活水平的需要，并且借用其他学者的研究成果，把鄢陵县的耕地压力状况和河南省18个地市的耕地压力状况作出比较；同时也分析了鄢陵县分乡镇的耕地压力状况，并对分乡镇的耕地压力指数作出比较，分析了各个乡镇耕地压力指数不同的原因。最后通过GM（1，1）灰色系统模型对影响耕地压力指数的相关因素进行预测，并且预测了鄢陵县在不同粮食自给率水平下的耕地压力指数。论文还对影响鄢陵县实际粮食产量因素进行灰色关联分析，找出了影响粮食单产的主要因素，并提出提高粮食产量，保障粮食安全的相关建议。研究结果表明：
（1）在1996-2010年间，鄢陵县的实际人均耕地面积在不断下降，最小人均耕地面积呈现先升后降的趋势，耕地压力指数的变化趋势和最小人均耕地面积的变化趋势保持一致，在2003年的时候耕地压力指数最大，稍稍大于1，粮食安全受到威胁，这是由于自然灾害所致。其它年间的耕地压力相对较小，耕地压力指数小于1，没有超过耕地预警线，粮食的生产能够满足需求，可以保障粮食安全。总的来说，鄢陵县耕地压力不大，处于粮食安全状态。
（2）对鄢陵县分乡镇的耕地压力进行比较可以发现，耕地压力的不同是由于经济的发展和产业结构的调整，城区所在的地方耕地压力指数最大，耕地压力指数大于2。大马乡和柏梁镇耕地压力指数大于1，由于是花卉生产基地，经济作物的种植面积较大，粮食生产数量相对较少，所以耕地压力也稍大。
（3）对于鄢陵县未来的耕地压力指数预测表明，鄢陵县未来的耕地压力小于1，不会出现粮食危机，可以适当调整种植结构，促进经济发展。但是也要严格控制土地用途，保障粮食安全。
Food security，which relates to the safety of the country, is the basis for countries to maintain stableeconomic development. As China's major grain producing areas, Henan province plays an important role innational food security strategy. Known as the "Chinese flowers County", Yanling county is a traditionalagricultural county in Henan province. In recent years, It has being adjusting planting structure, promotingthe industry management. Driven by market interests is bound to arable land converted to other land, andthe increased acreage of cash crops and non-agricultural land is a potential danger on food security.Therefore, doing researches on Yanling County farmland pressure to identify the impact on foodproduction factors have an effect on ensuring food security for Yanling County reality.
Based on the theory of sustainable development, human co-ordination theory, theory of scarcity ofland, food security theory, the paper analyzes the food security situation in Yanling county with the help ofProfessor Cai Yunlong defined by the minimum per capita arable land area and the pressure index oncropland model, and the relevant elements of the pressure index on cropland from1996to2010. Theseelements include population, grain yield, total grain output, the proportion of area sown to grain, multiplecropping index, food self-sufficiency rate, by which to analyze whether Yanling County's food productioncan meet the needs of the existing standard of living. By borrowing the other research’s results, it makescomparisons between Yanling County's farmland pressure status and the arable land of18cities in HenanProvince pressure situation; it also annalyzes Yanling County townships of cultivated land pressure, andpoints of township farmland pressure index to compare the pressure index on cropland at the township fordifferent reasons. Pressure index on cropland in the last gray system model GM (1,1) to forecast and predict the Yanling County in the different levels of food self-sufficiency rate pressure index on cropland.The gray correlation is used in this paper to analyze the impact of the actual grain yield of factors ofYanling County, in order to identify the main factors affecting the yield of grain, and proposedrecommendations to increase food production to ensure food security.
The results show that:
(1) From1996to2010, real per capita arable land in Yanling County continues to decline, theminimum per capita arable land area showing the trend first and then decreased, consistent with the trendof the pressure index on cropland and the trend of the minimum per capita arable land area. In2003, thepressure index on cropland is the largest, slightly greater than1, food security is threatened, which iscaused by the natural disasters. Arable land pressure in the other years is relatively small, the pressureindex on cropland is less than1, which does not exceed the the farmland warning line, and food productionis sufficient enough to meet people’s demand to ensure food security. Overall, the arable land pressure issmall in Yanling County, in the state of food security.
(2) By comparing the farmland pressure of Yanling County townships, we can find that cultivatedpressure difference is due to the economic development and the adjustment of industrial structure. In urbanareas, the pressure index on cropland is the largest, which is greater than2. The index on cropland inMalaysian Township and Boliang Zhen is greater than1,because both areas are the flower production bases,they have the large acreage of cash crops, and food production is a relatively small.
(3) Pressure index on cropland in Yanling County future projections indicate that the future of YanlingCounty's farmland pressure is less than1, the food crisis will not appear. The planting structure could beadjusted appropriately in order to promote economic development. But land use must be strictly controlledfor food security.
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