供应链环境下季节性商品的库存控制研究
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摘要
网络技术把人类社会经济发展带入了一个新的时代,21世纪由于电子商务浪潮的推动,中国的物流业出现了前所未有的热潮。物流学科的产生和应用给国民经济和企业的生产经营带来难以估量的经济效益。新的动向表明,物流现代化已成为中国经济发展的杠杆。
全球制造和经济一体化促使了企业间竞争地不断加剧,逐渐由同行业单个企业间的竞争演变为由一系列上下游合作伙伴企业构成的供应链之间的竞争,使得供应链管理成为企业管理的核心内容,而库存管理则又是供应链管理中的重中之重。库存过剩和缺货带来的损失可以大大削弱企业的盈利能力和市场竞争力,库存不仅影响着某一节点企业的成本,而且也制约着整个供应链的综合成本、整体性能和竞争优势。因此,如何实现产品的产销均衡,建立最有效地库存控制系统,最大地实现产品的时间效益和空间效益,已成为商品生产企业关注地核心问题。
本文介绍了供应链环境下的一种新的管理模式——VMI库存管理模式,对季节性商品相关环节的运作做了研究。在介绍供应链管理以及库存管理相关理论知识的基础上,采用季节性指数平滑法进行了需求预测并证实了预测模型的可行性。并根据季节性商品自身的特点,通过建立零售商与批发商的二级库存系统,运用相关理论提出了供应商与零售商的最优库存补货策略模型,并以实例说明了模型在很大程度上可以降低供应链上各个合作伙伴的物流成本,增加利润,实现各合作伙伴的共赢,增强整个供应链的市场竞争力。最后对多品种的季节性商品的补货策略作了进一步地设想。从而说明了VMI管理模式能够实现库存控制和供需的恰当匹配,不仅可以满足供应链上下游成员所下达的订货需求,更重要的是供应商拥有了控制其下游成员再供应决策的权利,以合作伙伴关系为基础,强调信息共享、利益共享、风险分担,进而在供应链成员间建立起了互信共赢的集成环境,促进了供应链的畅通。
With the development of network technology, human society economic development enters a new age. In the Twentieth Century because of electronic commerce promotion, the trend of logistics in China appears an unprecedented upsurge. The generation and application of logistics brings great commerce benefits for national economy and enterprise production management. It is shown that logistics modernization has been the lever of economic development in China.
Global economy and manufacturing integrated impels competitions among enterprises to become more and more aggravating. These competitions have been changed among from all single enterprises to supply chains which are composed of a series of upstream and downstream enterprises. So the supply chain management becomes the corn content of the enterprise management. And inventory management is the corn content of the supply chain management. The loss brought by overstock and shortage cost can weaken profit ability and market competitiveness of the enterprise greatly. It can restrict not only the cost of the node enterprise but also the comprehensive cost, whole performance and competitive advantage of the whole supply chain. Therefore, the corn problem the enterprises is how to get the balance of production and sale, how to establish an effective inventory control system and how to realize the spatial value and time value of the products.
This paper demonstrates a new management mode in supply chain-Vender Management Inventory (VMI) and studies on the process of seasonal goods. First, this paper introduces some theories about supply chain management and inventory. Second, it builds a model with seasonal exponential smoothing and shows the model is feasible to forecast demand by empirical analysis. Third, according to some characteristics about the seasonal goods, it puts forward an optimal inventory replenishment model between wholesaler and retailer by building two-echelon inventory system. Then the paper demonstrates this model can greatly reduce the logistic costs of all partners in supply chain, increase profit, implement all partners win-win, and then enhance competitive ability of the whole supply chain. Last, the paper assumes some modes and methods about multi-item seasonal goods. To sum up, all of above show that VMI can not only realize the balance between inventory controlling and supply-demand properly but also meet the requirements of customers who are upstream and downstream partners in the supply chain. So, it makes the upstream suppliers have the right to make some decision about supply-demand of goods for the downstream partners. Basing on the cooperative partnership, this management model is focusing on information sharing, revenue sharing, and risk sharing. It realizes an integrated environment among all partners in supply chain which can promote the supply chain smoothly.
全球制造和经济一体化促使了企业间竞争地不断加剧,逐渐由同行业单个企业间的竞争演变为由一系列上下游合作伙伴企业构成的供应链之间的竞争,使得供应链管理成为企业管理的核心内容,而库存管理则又是供应链管理中的重中之重。库存过剩和缺货带来的损失可以大大削弱企业的盈利能力和市场竞争力,库存不仅影响着某一节点企业的成本,而且也制约着整个供应链的综合成本、整体性能和竞争优势。因此,如何实现产品的产销均衡,建立最有效地库存控制系统,最大地实现产品的时间效益和空间效益,已成为商品生产企业关注地核心问题。
本文介绍了供应链环境下的一种新的管理模式——VMI库存管理模式,对季节性商品相关环节的运作做了研究。在介绍供应链管理以及库存管理相关理论知识的基础上,采用季节性指数平滑法进行了需求预测并证实了预测模型的可行性。并根据季节性商品自身的特点,通过建立零售商与批发商的二级库存系统,运用相关理论提出了供应商与零售商的最优库存补货策略模型,并以实例说明了模型在很大程度上可以降低供应链上各个合作伙伴的物流成本,增加利润,实现各合作伙伴的共赢,增强整个供应链的市场竞争力。最后对多品种的季节性商品的补货策略作了进一步地设想。从而说明了VMI管理模式能够实现库存控制和供需的恰当匹配,不仅可以满足供应链上下游成员所下达的订货需求,更重要的是供应商拥有了控制其下游成员再供应决策的权利,以合作伙伴关系为基础,强调信息共享、利益共享、风险分担,进而在供应链成员间建立起了互信共赢的集成环境,促进了供应链的畅通。
With the development of network technology, human society economic development enters a new age. In the Twentieth Century because of electronic commerce promotion, the trend of logistics in China appears an unprecedented upsurge. The generation and application of logistics brings great commerce benefits for national economy and enterprise production management. It is shown that logistics modernization has been the lever of economic development in China.
Global economy and manufacturing integrated impels competitions among enterprises to become more and more aggravating. These competitions have been changed among from all single enterprises to supply chains which are composed of a series of upstream and downstream enterprises. So the supply chain management becomes the corn content of the enterprise management. And inventory management is the corn content of the supply chain management. The loss brought by overstock and shortage cost can weaken profit ability and market competitiveness of the enterprise greatly. It can restrict not only the cost of the node enterprise but also the comprehensive cost, whole performance and competitive advantage of the whole supply chain. Therefore, the corn problem the enterprises is how to get the balance of production and sale, how to establish an effective inventory control system and how to realize the spatial value and time value of the products.
This paper demonstrates a new management mode in supply chain-Vender Management Inventory (VMI) and studies on the process of seasonal goods. First, this paper introduces some theories about supply chain management and inventory. Second, it builds a model with seasonal exponential smoothing and shows the model is feasible to forecast demand by empirical analysis. Third, according to some characteristics about the seasonal goods, it puts forward an optimal inventory replenishment model between wholesaler and retailer by building two-echelon inventory system. Then the paper demonstrates this model can greatly reduce the logistic costs of all partners in supply chain, increase profit, implement all partners win-win, and then enhance competitive ability of the whole supply chain. Last, the paper assumes some modes and methods about multi-item seasonal goods. To sum up, all of above show that VMI can not only realize the balance between inventory controlling and supply-demand properly but also meet the requirements of customers who are upstream and downstream partners in the supply chain. So, it makes the upstream suppliers have the right to make some decision about supply-demand of goods for the downstream partners. Basing on the cooperative partnership, this management model is focusing on information sharing, revenue sharing, and risk sharing. It realizes an integrated environment among all partners in supply chain which can promote the supply chain smoothly.
引文
[1]陈启申.MRPⅡ/ERP原理与应用[M],北京:清华大学出版社,2002
[2]刘飞等.制造系统工程[M].北京:机械工业出版社,1994
[3]钱智著.物流管理经典案例剖析.北京:中国经济出版社.2007.6:90-95
[4]刘保政,刘德宝,高立群.供不应求季节性商品的价格控制和生产销售决策模型.东北大学学报(自然科学版),2005,第26卷11期
[5]官振中,黄深泽,史本山.基于收益管理的季节性商品动态定价策略.西南交通大学学报,2005,第40卷5期
[6]王宏达,郝以阁,汪定伟.季节性商品的促销定价模型与算法.东北大学学报(自然科学版),2007,第28卷1期
[7]王靖,田澎,田志友.粒子群算法在季节性商品最优定价中的应用.计算机仿真,2006,第23卷2期
[8]骆珣,廖艳.关于商家季节性商品销售时机的抉择分析.市场营销,2006.4
[9]Doulas J T,Paul M G.Coordinated Supply Chain Management.European Journal of Operational.Research,1996,94(1):1-15
[10]Pastemack B A.Optimal Pricing and Returns Policies for Perishable Commodities.Marketing Science,1985,4(4):166-176
[11]迈克尔·波特编著.陈小悦译.竞争优势.华夏出版社.1997:33-53
[12]Stevens G C.Successful Supply Management.Management Decision.1990,28(8):25-31
[13]Davis T.Effective Supply Chain Management.Sloan Management Review,1993,34(4):35-46
[14]马士华,林勇,陈志祥.供应链管理.北京:机械工业出版社,2000:40-45
[15]邹辉霞.供应链物流管理.1版.北京:清华大学出版社,2001:4
[16](美)鲍尔索克斯(Bowersox,D.J.)等编著,李习文,王泽东译.机械工业出版社,2004.1
[17]Copacino W C.Supply Chain Management-the Basics and Beyond.Boston:The StLucie Press,1997:1-15
[18]Chase R B,Aquilano N J,Jacobs F R.Production and Operations Management:Manufacturing and Services.New York:McGraw-Hill Companies,1998,:1-50
[19]陈国权,供应链管理。巾帼软科学,1999,14(10):101-104
[20]马士华,王一凡,林勇.供应链管理对传统制造模式的挑战,华中理工大学学报(社会科学版),1998,5(2):65-68
[21]Lambert D,Stock J,Ellram L.The Global Supply Chain Forum in Fundamentals of Logistics-Management.Boston:Irwin-McGraw Hill,1998.504
[22][日]南川利雄编著.李丕菊,姚永璞译.库存管理.机械工业出版社,1984:4
[23]上海现代物流教材编写委员会.现代物流.1版.上海:上海三联书店,2003
[24]吴清一,物流管理(第二版)北京:中国物资出版社.2005:60-67
[25]赵启兰编.企业物流管理.机械工业出版社,2004:234-251
[26]丁伟东,胡燕祝.供应商管理库存(VMI)支撑体系研究.物流技术.2006第3期
[27]王海鹏,熊中楷.供应链节点企业间的协同库存控制策略,重庆大学,2002.6
[28]周艳军著.供应链管理.上海财经大学出版社,2004:111(6):524-532
[29]王长琼编.物流系统工程.中国物资出版社,2004:63
[30]肖庭延著.实用预测技术及应用.武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1993
[31]王静,陈劲杰,屈东升等.VMI下需求预测与补货配送研究.现代科学管理.2004第1期
[32]Chen J,Xu L J.Coordination of the Supply Chain of Seasonal Products.2001,31
[33]蒋成林.季节性指数平滑法参数的优选.统计与决策.2004第8期
[34][日]春日井博.需求预测入门.机械工业出版社,1985.6.
[35](英)L.C.托马斯 著(靳敏 王辉青译).对策论及其应用.解放军出版社.1988:1-2.
[36]Fine.C.H,R.M.Freund.Optimal Investment in Project Flexible Manufacturing Capacity.Management Science.1990:36,724-738
[37]文晓魏,大庆利.变质商品供应链库存策略研究.2006:3
[38](美)森尼尔.乔普瑞彼得.梅因德尔,供应链管理——战略、规划与运营[M].李丽萍,等译.北京:社会文献出版社,2003:191-194;208-224;240-250.
[39](美)唐纳德 J.鲍尔索克斯,戴维J.克劳斯,M.比尔斯比.库珀,供应链物流管理[M].李习文,王增东译.北京:机械工业出版社,2004:213-245.
[40](美)罗纳德.H.巴罗著.王晓东,胡瑞娟译.北京:机械工业出版社,2002.1:264-276
[41]徐国祥.管理统计学.上海:上海财经大学出版社,1995:115-126
[42]何明珂,周笛.补货策略的供应链渠道成本优化.北京工商大学学报(社会科 学版),2007第9期
[43]Copra S,Meindl P.Supply Chain Management:Strategy,Planning,and Operation.北京:清华大学出版社,2001:149-151
[44]熊燕华,沈厚才.按单装配系统中的协同补货问题研究.中国管理科学,2006,第14期第6卷
[2]刘飞等.制造系统工程[M].北京:机械工业出版社,1994
[3]钱智著.物流管理经典案例剖析.北京:中国经济出版社.2007.6:90-95
[4]刘保政,刘德宝,高立群.供不应求季节性商品的价格控制和生产销售决策模型.东北大学学报(自然科学版),2005,第26卷11期
[5]官振中,黄深泽,史本山.基于收益管理的季节性商品动态定价策略.西南交通大学学报,2005,第40卷5期
[6]王宏达,郝以阁,汪定伟.季节性商品的促销定价模型与算法.东北大学学报(自然科学版),2007,第28卷1期
[7]王靖,田澎,田志友.粒子群算法在季节性商品最优定价中的应用.计算机仿真,2006,第23卷2期
[8]骆珣,廖艳.关于商家季节性商品销售时机的抉择分析.市场营销,2006.4
[9]Doulas J T,Paul M G.Coordinated Supply Chain Management.European Journal of Operational.Research,1996,94(1):1-15
[10]Pastemack B A.Optimal Pricing and Returns Policies for Perishable Commodities.Marketing Science,1985,4(4):166-176
[11]迈克尔·波特编著.陈小悦译.竞争优势.华夏出版社.1997:33-53
[12]Stevens G C.Successful Supply Management.Management Decision.1990,28(8):25-31
[13]Davis T.Effective Supply Chain Management.Sloan Management Review,1993,34(4):35-46
[14]马士华,林勇,陈志祥.供应链管理.北京:机械工业出版社,2000:40-45
[15]邹辉霞.供应链物流管理.1版.北京:清华大学出版社,2001:4
[16](美)鲍尔索克斯(Bowersox,D.J.)等编著,李习文,王泽东译.机械工业出版社,2004.1
[17]Copacino W C.Supply Chain Management-the Basics and Beyond.Boston:The StLucie Press,1997:1-15
[18]Chase R B,Aquilano N J,Jacobs F R.Production and Operations Management:Manufacturing and Services.New York:McGraw-Hill Companies,1998,:1-50
[19]陈国权,供应链管理。巾帼软科学,1999,14(10):101-104
[20]马士华,王一凡,林勇.供应链管理对传统制造模式的挑战,华中理工大学学报(社会科学版),1998,5(2):65-68
[21]Lambert D,Stock J,Ellram L.The Global Supply Chain Forum in Fundamentals of Logistics-Management.Boston:Irwin-McGraw Hill,1998.504
[22][日]南川利雄编著.李丕菊,姚永璞译.库存管理.机械工业出版社,1984:4
[23]上海现代物流教材编写委员会.现代物流.1版.上海:上海三联书店,2003
[24]吴清一,物流管理(第二版)北京:中国物资出版社.2005:60-67
[25]赵启兰编.企业物流管理.机械工业出版社,2004:234-251
[26]丁伟东,胡燕祝.供应商管理库存(VMI)支撑体系研究.物流技术.2006第3期
[27]王海鹏,熊中楷.供应链节点企业间的协同库存控制策略,重庆大学,2002.6
[28]周艳军著.供应链管理.上海财经大学出版社,2004:111(6):524-532
[29]王长琼编.物流系统工程.中国物资出版社,2004:63
[30]肖庭延著.实用预测技术及应用.武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1993
[31]王静,陈劲杰,屈东升等.VMI下需求预测与补货配送研究.现代科学管理.2004第1期
[32]Chen J,Xu L J.Coordination of the Supply Chain of Seasonal Products.2001,31
[33]蒋成林.季节性指数平滑法参数的优选.统计与决策.2004第8期
[34][日]春日井博.需求预测入门.机械工业出版社,1985.6.
[35](英)L.C.托马斯 著(靳敏 王辉青译).对策论及其应用.解放军出版社.1988:1-2.
[36]Fine.C.H,R.M.Freund.Optimal Investment in Project Flexible Manufacturing Capacity.Management Science.1990:36,724-738
[37]文晓魏,大庆利.变质商品供应链库存策略研究.2006:3
[38](美)森尼尔.乔普瑞彼得.梅因德尔,供应链管理——战略、规划与运营[M].李丽萍,等译.北京:社会文献出版社,2003:191-194;208-224;240-250.
[39](美)唐纳德 J.鲍尔索克斯,戴维J.克劳斯,M.比尔斯比.库珀,供应链物流管理[M].李习文,王增东译.北京:机械工业出版社,2004:213-245.
[40](美)罗纳德.H.巴罗著.王晓东,胡瑞娟译.北京:机械工业出版社,2002.1:264-276
[41]徐国祥.管理统计学.上海:上海财经大学出版社,1995:115-126
[42]何明珂,周笛.补货策略的供应链渠道成本优化.北京工商大学学报(社会科 学版),2007第9期
[43]Copra S,Meindl P.Supply Chain Management:Strategy,Planning,and Operation.北京:清华大学出版社,2001:149-151
[44]熊燕华,沈厚才.按单装配系统中的协同补货问题研究.中国管理科学,2006,第14期第6卷