城镇居民退休年龄意愿影响因素研究
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摘要
我国现行的退休年龄制度多年未变,存在明显缺陷,与时代相脱节并引发诸多社会问题,亟待改革。退休年龄问题也成为今年两会的热门话题之一。人力资源与社会保障部部长在答记者问时表示,延长退休年龄是一种趋势,但何时开始延长、如何延长等具体方案目前还只处于研究阶段。
改革一项制度的最根本依据是民众的意愿,因此,在改革前理清民意是问题的关键。目前,国内对城镇居民退休年龄意愿的研究总量不足,尤其是实证研究明显缺乏。有些研究在数据分析上不够深入,研究方法上也存在一些问题,如仅关注了影响因素与意愿状况的关系而忽视了影响因素之间的关系。本研究在文献研究和实地调研的基础上,尝试对此类问题的研究方法进行改进,并对前人的研究结论进行补充。本文通过对调研数据进行因子分析,把影响城镇居民退休年龄意愿的诸多因素归结为两大类,简化了问题,抓住了问题的本质和共性,提高了解决问题的针对性。并通过对统计结果的深入分析,研究多种制度之间的衔接与配合,以期更好地推动制度改进。
Our current system of retirement age, which has obvious defects, can't meet the need of times and causes many social problems, has not been changed for many years and needs a reform. The problem of retirement age has become one of the hotly debated topics at the NPC and CPPCC. The minister of human resources and social security department said, pushing back the retirement age is a trend, but the detailed schemes of it, such as when to start and how to lengthen the age, are still being studied recently, when he answered reporters the question.
The most essential basis of reforming a system is the will of the public. So, it is the key that clarifying mind among the mass before reforming. At present, the amount of domestic studies about the influencing factors of urban employees' retirement age choosing is obviously sufficient, especially the amount of the empirical studies. To some researches, deep-going studies are still required on data analysis and research methods, for example, they often focus on the relations between the influencing factors and the retirement age choosing, but neglect the relations among the influencing factors. On the basis of related documents research and fieldwork, this research is trying to improve the method to research such kind of questions and complement the conclusion of formers. This thesis divides the influencing factors of urban employees' retirement age choosing into two categories by factor analysis, in order to simplify the problem, grasp the essences and the general characters of it, and increase the direction and accuracy to solve it. And then, this thesis discusses how to link up and integrate these related systems through deep analysis on statistical results in order to improve the system reform better.
改革一项制度的最根本依据是民众的意愿,因此,在改革前理清民意是问题的关键。目前,国内对城镇居民退休年龄意愿的研究总量不足,尤其是实证研究明显缺乏。有些研究在数据分析上不够深入,研究方法上也存在一些问题,如仅关注了影响因素与意愿状况的关系而忽视了影响因素之间的关系。本研究在文献研究和实地调研的基础上,尝试对此类问题的研究方法进行改进,并对前人的研究结论进行补充。本文通过对调研数据进行因子分析,把影响城镇居民退休年龄意愿的诸多因素归结为两大类,简化了问题,抓住了问题的本质和共性,提高了解决问题的针对性。并通过对统计结果的深入分析,研究多种制度之间的衔接与配合,以期更好地推动制度改进。
Our current system of retirement age, which has obvious defects, can't meet the need of times and causes many social problems, has not been changed for many years and needs a reform. The problem of retirement age has become one of the hotly debated topics at the NPC and CPPCC. The minister of human resources and social security department said, pushing back the retirement age is a trend, but the detailed schemes of it, such as when to start and how to lengthen the age, are still being studied recently, when he answered reporters the question.
The most essential basis of reforming a system is the will of the public. So, it is the key that clarifying mind among the mass before reforming. At present, the amount of domestic studies about the influencing factors of urban employees' retirement age choosing is obviously sufficient, especially the amount of the empirical studies. To some researches, deep-going studies are still required on data analysis and research methods, for example, they often focus on the relations between the influencing factors and the retirement age choosing, but neglect the relations among the influencing factors. On the basis of related documents research and fieldwork, this research is trying to improve the method to research such kind of questions and complement the conclusion of formers. This thesis divides the influencing factors of urban employees' retirement age choosing into two categories by factor analysis, in order to simplify the problem, grasp the essences and the general characters of it, and increase the direction and accuracy to solve it. And then, this thesis discusses how to link up and integrate these related systems through deep analysis on statistical results in order to improve the system reform better.
引文
①湛乐中,中华人民共和国公务员法释义,北京大学出版社,2005年7月1日第1版
②注：从事井下、高温、高空、特别繁重体力劳动或其他有害身体健康工作的,退休年龄男年满55周岁,女年满45周岁。因病或非因工致残,由医院证明并经劳动鉴定委员会确认完全丧失劳动能力的,退休年龄为男年满
50周岁,女年满45周岁。对于身体条件允许,且本人自愿的基础上,副教授、副专员以及相当这一职称的高级专家退休年龄可延长至65周岁；教授、研究员以及相当这一职称的高级专家退休年龄可以延长至70周岁；科教文卫骨干人员可以延长退休年龄1-5岁,男同志最长不得超过65周岁,女同志最长不超过60周岁。
③安德鲁·海伍德,政治学(第二版)[M],中国人民大学出版社,2006年版
④[李强两会观察]退休年龄问题需处理好四个公平,中国广播网http://www.cnr.cn/china/gdgg/201103/t20110311_507779410.html
⑤Burkhauser. R, J Turner.. A Time Series Analysis of Social Security and Its Effect on the Market Work of Men at Younger Ages [J]. Journal of Political Economy,1978,August
⑥James H. Stock, David A. Wise. The Pension Inducement to Retire:An Option Value Analysis [A].David A. Wise(ed.) Issues in the Economics of Aging[C].University of ChicagoPress,1990; Rust,John. A Dynamic Programming Model of Retirement Behavior[A].David A. Wise (ed.).The Economics of Aging [C].University of Chicago Press,1988.
⑦Joha Than Gruber, David Wise. Social Security and Retirement around the World[M].The University of Chicago Press.1998.
⑧Robert L. Axtell & Joshua M. Epstein, Coordination in Transient Social Networks:An Agent Based Computational Model of the Timing of Retirement, In Behavioral Dimensions of Retirement Economics, Edited by Henry J. Aaron,,Brookings Institution Press,1999
⑨Burtless, Gary "Social Security, Unanticipated Benefit Increase, and the Timing of Retirement." Review of Economic Studies53(October),1986
⑩Burtless. G..Social Security, Unanticipated Benefit Increases and the Timing of Retirement. Review of Economic Studies.1986
(11) Robert L. Axtell & Joshua M. Epstein, Coordination in Transient Social Networks:An Agent Based Computational Model of the Timing of Retirement, In Behavioral Dimensions of Retirement Economics, Edited by Henry J. Aaron,Brookings Institution Press,1999
(12)汪泽英、曾湘泉,中国社会养老保险收益激励与企业职工退休年龄分析,中国人民大学学报,2004(6)
(13)汪泽英于2004年11月12日在北京大学中国保险与社会保障研究中心(CCISSR)第十一次双周讨论会上的专题发言。
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25 可比工资替代率是退休金与社会平均工资的比率。
26 制度内的赡养率是指社会保险制度内的退休职工与在职人口之比。
27 李珍.社会保障理论,中国劳动社会保障出版社,2001
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31 林义.关于我国退休制度的经济思考,当代财经,1994年(1)
32 朱棱.论法定退休年龄的界定与调整,辽宁大学学报,1999(5)
33 罗元文.养老保险制度中关于退休年龄的探讨,市场与人口分析,2001年(6)
34 黎文武,唐代盛.弹性退休制度与养老保险保障制度整合初论,西北人口,2004(3)
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36 姜向群,陈艳；对我国当前推迟退休年龄之说的质疑,人口研究,2004(5)
37 Christian E. Weller, "Raising the Retirement Age:The Wrong Direction for Social Security", Economic Policy Institute,2000, September.
38 Christian E. Weller, "Raising the Retirement Age for Social Security", Economic Policy Institute,2005, July 1
39 覃福晓.男女退休年龄的法理思考,学术论坛,2002(5)
40 陈卫民,李莹,退休年龄对我国城镇职工养老金性别差异的影响分析,妇女研究论丛,2004(1)
41 桑敏兰.论中国妇女法定退休年龄的界定与调整,宁夏党校学报,2003(6)
42 李相敏.养老保险制度中男女差别退休年龄的定量分析.统计观察,2008(9)
43 谢光永.论企业员工退休双轨制,中共中央党校学报,2000年11月
44 汪泽英、曾湘泉,中国社会养老保险收益激励与企业职工退休年龄分析,中国人民大学学报,2004(6)
45 杨子慧.退休低龄化“后遗症”不容忽视,新华网,2003-4-5
46 杨宜勇,中国老龄社会背景下的退休安排,中国劳动社会保障出版社,2008：38-39页
47 樊明等,退休行为与退休政策,社会科学文献出版社,2008年12月：24页
48 Fields Gary S and Mitchell Olivia. S.The Effects of Social Security Reforms on Retirement Ages and Retirement Incomes. NBER Working Paper Series,1984(3)
49 YP Chen, Equivalent Retirement Ages and Their Implications for Social Security and Medicare Financing, Gerontologist,1994:731-35
50 John B. Williamson and Tay. K. McNamara. Why Some Workers Remain In the Labor Force Beyond the Typical Age of Retirement.CRR Working Paper,2001,9
51 Robert M. Hutchens and Jennjou Chen, "The Role of Employers in Phased Retirement:Opportunities for Phased Retirement Among White-Collar Workers",2004,ILR Collection:3
52 参考了 董喆,利用统计软件SPSS进行试卷质量分析,中国科技信息,2009年第15期
53 新华网 北京2003年3月14日电从金字塔型到橄榄型：中国收入阶层结构亟需转变
54 根据《信息时报》2007年4月11日《千万离退休工返聘是“抢饭碗”》
55 中国：平均退休年龄低至53岁,中国新闻周刊,2006年第26期
56 城市新增退休人员提前退休占1/3,新浪网,http://news.sina.com.cn/o/2006-09-01/09509909857s.shtml
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②注：从事井下、高温、高空、特别繁重体力劳动或其他有害身体健康工作的,退休年龄男年满55周岁,女年满45周岁。因病或非因工致残,由医院证明并经劳动鉴定委员会确认完全丧失劳动能力的,退休年龄为男年满
50周岁,女年满45周岁。对于身体条件允许,且本人自愿的基础上,副教授、副专员以及相当这一职称的高级专家退休年龄可延长至65周岁；教授、研究员以及相当这一职称的高级专家退休年龄可以延长至70周岁；科教文卫骨干人员可以延长退休年龄1-5岁,男同志最长不得超过65周岁,女同志最长不超过60周岁。
③安德鲁·海伍德,政治学(第二版)[M],中国人民大学出版社,2006年版
④[李强两会观察]退休年龄问题需处理好四个公平,中国广播网http://www.cnr.cn/china/gdgg/201103/t20110311_507779410.html
⑤Burkhauser. R, J Turner.. A Time Series Analysis of Social Security and Its Effect on the Market Work of Men at Younger Ages [J]. Journal of Political Economy,1978,August
⑥James H. Stock, David A. Wise. The Pension Inducement to Retire:An Option Value Analysis [A].David A. Wise(ed.) Issues in the Economics of Aging[C].University of ChicagoPress,1990; Rust,John. A Dynamic Programming Model of Retirement Behavior[A].David A. Wise (ed.).The Economics of Aging [C].University of Chicago Press,1988.
⑦Joha Than Gruber, David Wise. Social Security and Retirement around the World[M].The University of Chicago Press.1998.
⑧Robert L. Axtell & Joshua M. Epstein, Coordination in Transient Social Networks:An Agent Based Computational Model of the Timing of Retirement, In Behavioral Dimensions of Retirement Economics, Edited by Henry J. Aaron,,Brookings Institution Press,1999
⑨Burtless, Gary "Social Security, Unanticipated Benefit Increase, and the Timing of Retirement." Review of Economic Studies53(October),1986
⑩Burtless. G..Social Security, Unanticipated Benefit Increases and the Timing of Retirement. Review of Economic Studies.1986
(11) Robert L. Axtell & Joshua M. Epstein, Coordination in Transient Social Networks:An Agent Based Computational Model of the Timing of Retirement, In Behavioral Dimensions of Retirement Economics, Edited by Henry J. Aaron,Brookings Institution Press,1999
(12)汪泽英、曾湘泉,中国社会养老保险收益激励与企业职工退休年龄分析,中国人民大学学报,2004(6)
(13)汪泽英于2004年11月12日在北京大学中国保险与社会保障研究中心(CCISSR)第十一次双周讨论会上的专题发言。
(14)杨宜勇.中国老龄社会背景下的退休安排.中国劳动社会保障出版社,2008,12,第一版
(15)樊明等.退休行为与退休政策,社会科学文献出版社,2008
(16)魏征宇.城镇居民延长退休年龄意愿与影响因素的调查研究——基于浙江省5座城市的调研,现代经济信息,2009(22)
(17)林义.关于我国退休制度的经济思考,当代财经,1994年(1)
(18)欧翠珍.对我国低龄退休现象的经济学思考,中山大学学报,1997年(6)
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21 李珍.社会保障理论,中国劳动社会保障出版社,2001
22 符齐华.延长法定退休年龄利弊谈,中国保险,2004(11)
23 林义.关于我国退休制度的经济思考,当代财经,1994年(1)
24 樊明等.退休行为与退休政策.社会科学文献出版社,2008,12
25 可比工资替代率是退休金与社会平均工资的比率。
26 制度内的赡养率是指社会保险制度内的退休职工与在职人口之比。
27 李珍.社会保障理论,中国劳动社会保障出版社,2001
28 史伯年.退休年龄与养老金支付,人口与经济,2001(2)
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31 林义.关于我国退休制度的经济思考,当代财经,1994年(1)
32 朱棱.论法定退休年龄的界定与调整,辽宁大学学报,1999(5)
33 罗元文.养老保险制度中关于退休年龄的探讨,市场与人口分析,2001年(6)
34 黎文武,唐代盛.弹性退休制度与养老保险保障制度整合初论,西北人口,2004(3)
35 张东伟,仲大军等.中国是否应该推出弹性退休制度,中国经济论坛,2004(38)
36 姜向群,陈艳；对我国当前推迟退休年龄之说的质疑,人口研究,2004(5)
37 Christian E. Weller, "Raising the Retirement Age:The Wrong Direction for Social Security", Economic Policy Institute,2000, September.
38 Christian E. Weller, "Raising the Retirement Age for Social Security", Economic Policy Institute,2005, July 1
39 覃福晓.男女退休年龄的法理思考,学术论坛,2002(5)
40 陈卫民,李莹,退休年龄对我国城镇职工养老金性别差异的影响分析,妇女研究论丛,2004(1)
41 桑敏兰.论中国妇女法定退休年龄的界定与调整,宁夏党校学报,2003(6)
42 李相敏.养老保险制度中男女差别退休年龄的定量分析.统计观察,2008(9)
43 谢光永.论企业员工退休双轨制,中共中央党校学报,2000年11月
44 汪泽英、曾湘泉,中国社会养老保险收益激励与企业职工退休年龄分析,中国人民大学学报,2004(6)
45 杨子慧.退休低龄化“后遗症”不容忽视,新华网,2003-4-5
46 杨宜勇,中国老龄社会背景下的退休安排,中国劳动社会保障出版社,2008：38-39页
47 樊明等,退休行为与退休政策,社会科学文献出版社,2008年12月：24页
48 Fields Gary S and Mitchell Olivia. S.The Effects of Social Security Reforms on Retirement Ages and Retirement Incomes. NBER Working Paper Series,1984(3)
49 YP Chen, Equivalent Retirement Ages and Their Implications for Social Security and Medicare Financing, Gerontologist,1994:731-35
50 John B. Williamson and Tay. K. McNamara. Why Some Workers Remain In the Labor Force Beyond the Typical Age of Retirement.CRR Working Paper,2001,9
51 Robert M. Hutchens and Jennjou Chen, "The Role of Employers in Phased Retirement:Opportunities for Phased Retirement Among White-Collar Workers",2004,ILR Collection:3
52 参考了 董喆,利用统计软件SPSS进行试卷质量分析,中国科技信息,2009年第15期
53 新华网 北京2003年3月14日电从金字塔型到橄榄型：中国收入阶层结构亟需转变
54 根据《信息时报》2007年4月11日《千万离退休工返聘是“抢饭碗”》
55 中国：平均退休年龄低至53岁,中国新闻周刊,2006年第26期
56 城市新增退休人员提前退休占1/3,新浪网,http://news.sina.com.cn/o/2006-09-01/09509909857s.shtml
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