罐式车辆道路运输毒性气体泄漏扩散模型与风险评价研究
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摘要
气体危险货物作为燃料、原料及生产加工辅料在众多行业和人民日常生活中被广泛应用,但因具有种类繁多、性质复杂、危险性高等显著特征,其道路运输安全日益受到各界关注。其中,毒性气体除可能具有易燃、易爆特性外,毒害作用则是对公共安全与生态环境的最大威胁。毒性气体运输过程中一旦发生泄漏,将对运输沿线居民的生命健康与财产安全造成严重伤害,对周边环境的破坏及长远影响更加难以估量。罐式车辆是液体与气体危险货物道路运输的主要承载工具。相关调查表明,罐式车辆在我国道路危险货物运输车辆中占有较高比例,而近80%的道路运输危险货物事故涉及罐车。可见罐式车辆道路运输毒性气体是具有较高风险的作业活动,确保其安全与可靠性,对保障人民群众生命财产安全及社会稳定具有特殊意义。目前,国内外相关研究存在薄弱环节,一些关键问题有待深入探索。本文研究内容主要有以下方面：
①系统分析国内外道路危险货物运输风险评价和毒性气体泄漏扩散模型研究现状、发展趋势及存在的主要问题；通过现场勘查、资料查阅并使用各类事故数据系统,整理了886起我国罐式车辆道路运输危险货物事故案例；采用统计分析、对比分析等方法探究我国罐式车辆道路运输危险货物事故规律,并掌握其时间、空间、致因、形态、后果分布及泄漏概率等重要统计特征。
②基于罐式车辆道路运输危险货物事故特征,以系统论、控制论及安全工程学为理论依据,深入分析罐式车辆道路运输危险货物事故机理；建立基于改进GRA(Generalized Reliability Analysis)方法的罐式车辆道路运输危险货物可靠性分析模型,为事故防治及风险减缓提供理论依据。
③针对我国道路运输危险货物风险分析研究中事故概率取值依赖国外数据的现状,基于国内事故特征研究及多元非线性回归方法对国外相关数据进行合理修正,提出符合我国国情的道路运输危险货物事故概率取值方法；充分考虑道路因素与非道路因素对罐式车辆道路运输危险货物事故易发性的影响,提出罐式车辆道路运输危险货物泄漏事故概率计算模型。
④研究确定罐式车辆道路运输毒性气体泄漏事故后果严重度,充分考虑人口与环境因素,提出平均人口密度、时变人口密度和路段环境敏感度的概念及量化方法,用以建立针对不同对象的风险评价模型。
⑤考虑事故概率与事故后果两方面因素,构建罐式车辆道路运输毒性气体泄漏风险评价模型。针对罐式车辆道路运输毒性气体对沿线人员、环境、公共设施等社会元素的潜在威胁,建立了基于BP神经网络的社会风险度评价模型；针对罐式车辆道路运输毒性气体对沿线居民生命财产安全等个人因素造成的潜在威胁,建立了基于蒙特卡罗方法的个人风险值计算模型；
⑥基于数学物理方法并结合我国道路运输危险货物实际,推导出罐式车辆道路运输毒性气体泄漏的大气扩散方程；解决了扩散参数选取、边界条件设定、初始源强获取、变化及位置控制等系列问题,最终建立适用于固定点源连续泄漏、瞬时泄漏、移动点源连续泄漏的罐式车辆道路运输毒性气体泄漏扩散模型。
⑦运用现代求解理论与工具,对固定点源连续泄漏、瞬时泄漏、移动点源连续泄漏等典型事故场景进行数值模拟,验证所建扩散模型的合理性与适用性；得到不同事故场景下毒性气体三维空间分布及不同时刻各浓度区域范围,为事故预警、救援及风险分析提供科学依据。
最后,运用所建罐式车辆道路运输毒性气体泄漏风险评价模型,对实例路段社会风险和个人风险进行分析,并得到道路两侧人口个体风险与群体风险评价结果；用所建罐式车辆道路运输毒性气体泄漏扩散模型,对事故场景进行数值模拟,并提出基于时间的事故预警方案及事故救援、疏散策略。研究表明,本文建立的罐式车辆道路运输毒性气体泄漏风险评价模型能够客观反映途经路段的风险水平,罐式车辆道路运输毒性气体泄漏扩散模型方程能准确描述毒性气体三维扩散过程,且与道路运输实际高度接近。
As the fuel, raw material and the manufactory producing auxiliary material, the gas hazardous goods are widely applied in the numerous professions and the people's daily life. Its road transportation safety receives attention from all circles day by day because of some marked feature such as its great variety, the complex nature, the high risk. Besides the flammable and combustible feature, the toxic action of toxic gases is the biggest threat to the public and the ecological environment. Once the toxic gas leaks out in the transportation process, it will cause serious consequences to resident's health of life and safety of property along the route. What's the worse, it's difficult to evaluate the destruction and the long-term effect to the peripheral environment. Tank cars are the main tool to transport the liquid and the gas hazardous goods. The related investigation indicates that tank cars hold high proportion in the vehicles which transport hazardous goods in our country, and nearly80percents of the accidents about transportation of road hazardous goods involve them. So it is a risky activity that tank car transport of gas hazardous goods. To mak sure its security and reliability has special significance to ensure safety of people's life and property and social stability. At present, there are some weak links in the related domestic and foreign research. And some key problems still remain to be explored and resolved. Therefore, the main study context for this thesis is as follows:
①The thesis carried on systematic research to the risk analysis of the domestic and foreign transportation of hazardous goods on road, the study present situation, the trend of development and the main existing problems of the leakage and diffusion model based on the toxic gas.886accident cases about the road hazardous goods transported by tank car in our country are sorted out through the investigation on the spot, referring data, using kinds of data systems for accident. Accidental rule of the road hazardous goods transported by tank car in our country was explored, using methods such as statistical analysis and contrastive analysis, and the important statistical features such as temporal distribution, dimensional distribution, reason, type, consequence and leakage probability.
②On the base of accidental features for the road ransportation of hazardous goods by tank car, taking system theory, cybernetics, safety engineering as basis, this thesis analysed the accidental mechanism about road ransportation of hazardous goods by tank car thoroughly; The analytical model for the reliability of road ransportation of hazardous goods by tank car was established, based on improved GRA (Generalized Reliability Analysis) method,which provides the theory basis of preventing accident and slowing down risk.
③Because the probability of accident about road tranmportation of hazardous goods in our country is calculated depends on overseas data, the overseas data was corrected reasonably and the computational method conforming to China conditions for the probability of accident about road transportation of hazardous goods was proposed, on the base of the research to domestic accidental feature and the method of multi non-liner regression.
④On the base of the research to accidental severity of the toxic gas leakage, considering the demographic and the environmental factor fully, the concept and quantificational method for the medium density of population, the time-varing density of population and the sensitivity of road environment were proposed, in order to establish the risk evaluation model applied to different object.
⑤Considering the accident probability and consequence, the risk evaluation model for the research to the leakage of toxic gas was established; Because the leakage of toxic gas is a potential threat to the people along road, environment, public facilities and so on, the evaluation model for the social risk based on the BP neural network was established; Because the leakage of toxic gas is a potential threat to safety of people's life and property along road, the computational model for personal risk based on Monte Carlo method was established.
⑥Based on physics-mathematic method and fact of cargo road transportation in China, dispersion equation for leakage accident of road transportation for toxic gases by tank car was derivated; problems such as diffusion parameter choosing, boundary condition setting, initial source strength calculating, source strength and location controlling were solved, and diffusion model fits for continuous leakage for fixed point source, instantaneous leakage for fixed point source and continuous leakage for moving point source were established.
⑦Modern solving theory and tools were utilized to simulate the typical accident scene, such as continuous leakage for fixed point source, instantaneous leakage for fixed point source and continuous leakage for moving point source, which proved rationality and validity of the diffusion model; on the other hand, real-time spatial distribution of concentration and dangerous area in different accident scene were achieved, which can be used as the basis for counter plan making and risk analysis.
At last, the established risk evaluating model was used to analysis the social and individual risk of example road section, and the risk for units and colony on sides of road were achieved; on the other hand, the established diffuse model was used to simulate an accident scene, and the counter plan, scheme for evacuation and succor according to time were put forward. It is indicated, that the established risk evaluation model for road transportation of toxic gases by tank car can reflect the risk level of road section objectively; and the diffuse model for tank car leakage accidents can describe the three-dimensional diffusion of toxic gases exactly and is closer to the fact of road transportation.
①系统分析国内外道路危险货物运输风险评价和毒性气体泄漏扩散模型研究现状、发展趋势及存在的主要问题；通过现场勘查、资料查阅并使用各类事故数据系统,整理了886起我国罐式车辆道路运输危险货物事故案例；采用统计分析、对比分析等方法探究我国罐式车辆道路运输危险货物事故规律,并掌握其时间、空间、致因、形态、后果分布及泄漏概率等重要统计特征。
②基于罐式车辆道路运输危险货物事故特征,以系统论、控制论及安全工程学为理论依据,深入分析罐式车辆道路运输危险货物事故机理；建立基于改进GRA(Generalized Reliability Analysis)方法的罐式车辆道路运输危险货物可靠性分析模型,为事故防治及风险减缓提供理论依据。
③针对我国道路运输危险货物风险分析研究中事故概率取值依赖国外数据的现状,基于国内事故特征研究及多元非线性回归方法对国外相关数据进行合理修正,提出符合我国国情的道路运输危险货物事故概率取值方法；充分考虑道路因素与非道路因素对罐式车辆道路运输危险货物事故易发性的影响,提出罐式车辆道路运输危险货物泄漏事故概率计算模型。
④研究确定罐式车辆道路运输毒性气体泄漏事故后果严重度,充分考虑人口与环境因素,提出平均人口密度、时变人口密度和路段环境敏感度的概念及量化方法,用以建立针对不同对象的风险评价模型。
⑤考虑事故概率与事故后果两方面因素,构建罐式车辆道路运输毒性气体泄漏风险评价模型。针对罐式车辆道路运输毒性气体对沿线人员、环境、公共设施等社会元素的潜在威胁,建立了基于BP神经网络的社会风险度评价模型；针对罐式车辆道路运输毒性气体对沿线居民生命财产安全等个人因素造成的潜在威胁,建立了基于蒙特卡罗方法的个人风险值计算模型；
⑥基于数学物理方法并结合我国道路运输危险货物实际,推导出罐式车辆道路运输毒性气体泄漏的大气扩散方程；解决了扩散参数选取、边界条件设定、初始源强获取、变化及位置控制等系列问题,最终建立适用于固定点源连续泄漏、瞬时泄漏、移动点源连续泄漏的罐式车辆道路运输毒性气体泄漏扩散模型。
⑦运用现代求解理论与工具,对固定点源连续泄漏、瞬时泄漏、移动点源连续泄漏等典型事故场景进行数值模拟,验证所建扩散模型的合理性与适用性；得到不同事故场景下毒性气体三维空间分布及不同时刻各浓度区域范围,为事故预警、救援及风险分析提供科学依据。
最后,运用所建罐式车辆道路运输毒性气体泄漏风险评价模型,对实例路段社会风险和个人风险进行分析,并得到道路两侧人口个体风险与群体风险评价结果；用所建罐式车辆道路运输毒性气体泄漏扩散模型,对事故场景进行数值模拟,并提出基于时间的事故预警方案及事故救援、疏散策略。研究表明,本文建立的罐式车辆道路运输毒性气体泄漏风险评价模型能够客观反映途经路段的风险水平,罐式车辆道路运输毒性气体泄漏扩散模型方程能准确描述毒性气体三维扩散过程,且与道路运输实际高度接近。
As the fuel, raw material and the manufactory producing auxiliary material, the gas hazardous goods are widely applied in the numerous professions and the people's daily life. Its road transportation safety receives attention from all circles day by day because of some marked feature such as its great variety, the complex nature, the high risk. Besides the flammable and combustible feature, the toxic action of toxic gases is the biggest threat to the public and the ecological environment. Once the toxic gas leaks out in the transportation process, it will cause serious consequences to resident's health of life and safety of property along the route. What's the worse, it's difficult to evaluate the destruction and the long-term effect to the peripheral environment. Tank cars are the main tool to transport the liquid and the gas hazardous goods. The related investigation indicates that tank cars hold high proportion in the vehicles which transport hazardous goods in our country, and nearly80percents of the accidents about transportation of road hazardous goods involve them. So it is a risky activity that tank car transport of gas hazardous goods. To mak sure its security and reliability has special significance to ensure safety of people's life and property and social stability. At present, there are some weak links in the related domestic and foreign research. And some key problems still remain to be explored and resolved. Therefore, the main study context for this thesis is as follows:
①The thesis carried on systematic research to the risk analysis of the domestic and foreign transportation of hazardous goods on road, the study present situation, the trend of development and the main existing problems of the leakage and diffusion model based on the toxic gas.886accident cases about the road hazardous goods transported by tank car in our country are sorted out through the investigation on the spot, referring data, using kinds of data systems for accident. Accidental rule of the road hazardous goods transported by tank car in our country was explored, using methods such as statistical analysis and contrastive analysis, and the important statistical features such as temporal distribution, dimensional distribution, reason, type, consequence and leakage probability.
②On the base of accidental features for the road ransportation of hazardous goods by tank car, taking system theory, cybernetics, safety engineering as basis, this thesis analysed the accidental mechanism about road ransportation of hazardous goods by tank car thoroughly; The analytical model for the reliability of road ransportation of hazardous goods by tank car was established, based on improved GRA (Generalized Reliability Analysis) method,which provides the theory basis of preventing accident and slowing down risk.
③Because the probability of accident about road tranmportation of hazardous goods in our country is calculated depends on overseas data, the overseas data was corrected reasonably and the computational method conforming to China conditions for the probability of accident about road transportation of hazardous goods was proposed, on the base of the research to domestic accidental feature and the method of multi non-liner regression.
④On the base of the research to accidental severity of the toxic gas leakage, considering the demographic and the environmental factor fully, the concept and quantificational method for the medium density of population, the time-varing density of population and the sensitivity of road environment were proposed, in order to establish the risk evaluation model applied to different object.
⑤Considering the accident probability and consequence, the risk evaluation model for the research to the leakage of toxic gas was established; Because the leakage of toxic gas is a potential threat to the people along road, environment, public facilities and so on, the evaluation model for the social risk based on the BP neural network was established; Because the leakage of toxic gas is a potential threat to safety of people's life and property along road, the computational model for personal risk based on Monte Carlo method was established.
⑥Based on physics-mathematic method and fact of cargo road transportation in China, dispersion equation for leakage accident of road transportation for toxic gases by tank car was derivated; problems such as diffusion parameter choosing, boundary condition setting, initial source strength calculating, source strength and location controlling were solved, and diffusion model fits for continuous leakage for fixed point source, instantaneous leakage for fixed point source and continuous leakage for moving point source were established.
⑦Modern solving theory and tools were utilized to simulate the typical accident scene, such as continuous leakage for fixed point source, instantaneous leakage for fixed point source and continuous leakage for moving point source, which proved rationality and validity of the diffusion model; on the other hand, real-time spatial distribution of concentration and dangerous area in different accident scene were achieved, which can be used as the basis for counter plan making and risk analysis.
At last, the established risk evaluating model was used to analysis the social and individual risk of example road section, and the risk for units and colony on sides of road were achieved; on the other hand, the established diffuse model was used to simulate an accident scene, and the counter plan, scheme for evacuation and succor according to time were put forward. It is indicated, that the established risk evaluation model for road transportation of toxic gases by tank car can reflect the risk level of road section objectively; and the diffuse model for tank car leakage accidents can describe the three-dimensional diffusion of toxic gases exactly and is closer to the fact of road transportation.
引文
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