我国城市房地产业运行机理及发展模式研究
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摘要
在全球房价暴涨的国际大背景下,中国作为一个发展中国家,在经济快速发展的同时,近几年中国房地产业运行呈现出较快的发展。但自2006年以来,我国各地房价不断攀升,房地产市场的火热为房地产业的发展带来了益处,但更为重要的是,房地产价格的这种非理性增长已经带来了诸多问题,房地产业的运行已经出现了矛盾。因此,研究房地产业的运行机理与发展模式,不仅有利于房地产业自身的健康发展,也有利于国民经济的发展和国家的稳定。
本文在回顾了房地产相关理论(地租地价理论、市场供求理论、产业经济周期理论以及区位理论)的基础上,详尽地对房地产业的运行现状和发展阶段进行了分析与评述,在此基础上归纳本文的研究要素,明确要素之间的逻辑关系;其次,对研究要素进行分析界定,提出要素间的关系模型;第三,在理论推导的基础上,构建房地产业运行要素之间的关系模型,并提出了相关假设;对统计年鉴的客观数据和来自于国内4个城市(长春、哈尔滨、大连和沈阳)的问卷调研数据分别进行实证分析,并对检验结果进行讨论;最后,借鉴国外房地产业的发展模式,提出了我国房地产业的阶段发展模式,并进一步明确本文的研究在理论上和实践上的意义。
From the history of the development of the countries all over the world, the development of the real estate market in the city has a good relationship with the overall economic development in the city as well as the social demands of the real estate. In Western countries, the formation of the real estate market in the city has a history of hundreds of years. The development of the real estate economy and the macro-economy maintained coordinated ratio basically and existed a more stable housing deal.
In the international context of the soaring housing prices, as a developing country, China has a rapid economic development and the real estate industry has run out faster in recent years. As the reform of the land-use system as well as the urban housing distribution system in China, state-owned land usufruct transferred from the administrative allocation of free, open-ended into the remise and cession of paid and terminable, housing construction transferred from the past single national investment into the multi-investment, housing allocation transferred from the benefits distribution into the currency distribution system gradually, the degree of commercialization of housing increased greatly.
we can find that the real estate industry have made great achievements through China's reform and opening-up after a short period of 20 years. The real estate market system has gradually established. However, due to the country's overall economic level is relatively backward as well as the marketing system developed late and distempered, China's real estate market has a contradiction of "excessive supply" and "lack of effective demand" in recent years. These issues account for that the real estate industry play an increasingly prominent and important role in the status and operation of the national economy, has been becoming the basic and leader industry in the national economy now and in the future. But only measured the development level of things from the perspective of economic growth can not represent the whole picture and was not able to reflect their level and real quality of the development in the future. As a result, we can not say that the development of urban real estate in China is rational and healthy recent years. Chinese real estate industry has taken on characteristics of irrational with more complex, integrated, arduous, uncertainties and risks recently. It is bound to be a serious obstacle to the national economic development in China if we can not restrain it in time.
How to make the real estate development in the city tends to rational development has become an urgent and necessary practical problems. It will play an important role in the well-off society building, the scientific concept of development adhering, the harmonious socialist society establishing as well as in striving to build a resource-conserving and environment-friendly society.
This article studies the operation mechanism and mode of development of the real estate in the city from a rational perspective. This article attempts to find a point which will be sustained by the economy, recognized by the social and cooperated by the real estate developers and government. Establishing the rational developing mode of the real estate in the city according to this standards, then lead the main market, such as government, intermediary organizations and consumers, to cooperate to this mode. At last, we will make the operation and development of the Chinese real estate market more rational.
The main contents and conclusions are as follows:
(1)On the basis of the literature review,we research on the real estate industry in China and the rise of evolution initially, then from the investment, sales, price as well as the real estate bubble and the overall effectiveness on the level of 5 aspects which has carried on the review and the analysis to our country real estate industry development current situation, and has obtained the following several characteristics, that the scale of investment in real estate development slowed down the pace, however, maintain a relatively high rate of investment; The total investment in Commercial residential building has increased year by year, residential real estate investment has become a top priority, occupied nearly 70% of the share; Real estate sales continued to grow, but there are a large number of remaining vacant, this cover plate with the developers reluctant to sell, effective supply shortage caused by malicious and then rises the price of the house; the price of Commercial residential building increase every year, under the national macro-control policy to suppress prices in 2005 the growth rate slowed down, but still no suppression of the sharp rise in housing prices as well as the obvious characteristics of the region for five characteristics,followed by a description of China's urban real estate problems. Finally, there is a brief description on evolution of our urban real estate as well as the characteristics and the trends with the future.
(2)Then this article used the 15-year Statistical Yearbook data from 1993 to 2007 to do a discriminant analysis on the real estate development stages. We divided the real estate development in China into three stages: the initial stage, the developing stage as well as the prosperity stage. We set up the discriminant model according to the on-hand data, and then use the model to analyze the stage of the real estate industry development in Jilin Province, we have concluded that: the developing stage of the real estate industry in Jilin Province start in 2003,at the same time also shows that the real estate industry development in Jilin Province has the same trend with that in China, but the development phase of the time is a little behind the national level.
(3) This article puts forward the hypothesis of the study in this paper on the basis of the review of the literature, and verifies these assumptions through the structural equation model. These assumptions mainly are as follows: real estate human investment has a positive correlation to the material output, real estate human investment has a positive correlation to the capital-output, real estate investment has a positive correlation to the material output, real estate investment has a positive correlation to the capital output, real estate material investment has a positive correlation to the material output; real estate material investment has a positive correlation to the capital-output. All the assumptions are supported by the data. Then we opened the black box of inputs to outputs, introduced the real estate price variables, and verify the role of the prices in real estate investment and output.
(4) We learned the real estate development model in foreign developed countries, such as the United States, Japan, Germany, put forward the real estate industry development model in China. On the basis of the cluster analysis, we divided the 35 large and medium-sized cities in China into three categories and used the discriminant formula to amend the results of the cluster analysis to ensure the reasonableness of the classification. On this base, put forward the development models the real estate industry should be taken in different stages in China.
The contributions of the paper are as follows:
1、Building the comprehensive operation model of real estate and using statistical data and subjective data to test it. Past studies focused on the complex operation of real estate and its outer factors, such as demand, few papers focus on its inner operation. There are only a few papers concentrating on inputs and outputs respectively and didn’t pay attention to their relationship. This paper studied the inner operation mechanism based on the relation between input and output. This enriches the research of real estate by using subjective and objective data to test the model.
2、Using discrimnant analysis to divide the development of real estate intothree stages and getting the discrimnant equations. This can be the base for other ciries. Past researchers divided the development into several stages according to the governmental policies. Although their division was reasonable to some extent, whether their results are suitable to other small cities needs discussing, because different regions show different features. This part supplements and enriches the theoty of real estate and can give directions for real estate development.
3、using cluster analysis to analyze 35 cities and dividing them into three lecels and comparing their features. Past researches used real estate price and ration of take-up to differentiate the development of real estate, but this paper uses five indexes to cluster and this is a try in the study of real estate development.
In our text, we explored the existing problems in the real estate industry combined the theory with practice. With scientific analysis, we find the suitable real estate industry of our urban development model, and hope that this article could provide more reference on real estate development of China in the future.
本文在回顾了房地产相关理论(地租地价理论、市场供求理论、产业经济周期理论以及区位理论)的基础上,详尽地对房地产业的运行现状和发展阶段进行了分析与评述,在此基础上归纳本文的研究要素,明确要素之间的逻辑关系;其次,对研究要素进行分析界定,提出要素间的关系模型;第三,在理论推导的基础上,构建房地产业运行要素之间的关系模型,并提出了相关假设;对统计年鉴的客观数据和来自于国内4个城市(长春、哈尔滨、大连和沈阳)的问卷调研数据分别进行实证分析,并对检验结果进行讨论;最后,借鉴国外房地产业的发展模式,提出了我国房地产业的阶段发展模式,并进一步明确本文的研究在理论上和实践上的意义。
From the history of the development of the countries all over the world, the development of the real estate market in the city has a good relationship with the overall economic development in the city as well as the social demands of the real estate. In Western countries, the formation of the real estate market in the city has a history of hundreds of years. The development of the real estate economy and the macro-economy maintained coordinated ratio basically and existed a more stable housing deal.
In the international context of the soaring housing prices, as a developing country, China has a rapid economic development and the real estate industry has run out faster in recent years. As the reform of the land-use system as well as the urban housing distribution system in China, state-owned land usufruct transferred from the administrative allocation of free, open-ended into the remise and cession of paid and terminable, housing construction transferred from the past single national investment into the multi-investment, housing allocation transferred from the benefits distribution into the currency distribution system gradually, the degree of commercialization of housing increased greatly.
we can find that the real estate industry have made great achievements through China's reform and opening-up after a short period of 20 years. The real estate market system has gradually established. However, due to the country's overall economic level is relatively backward as well as the marketing system developed late and distempered, China's real estate market has a contradiction of "excessive supply" and "lack of effective demand" in recent years. These issues account for that the real estate industry play an increasingly prominent and important role in the status and operation of the national economy, has been becoming the basic and leader industry in the national economy now and in the future. But only measured the development level of things from the perspective of economic growth can not represent the whole picture and was not able to reflect their level and real quality of the development in the future. As a result, we can not say that the development of urban real estate in China is rational and healthy recent years. Chinese real estate industry has taken on characteristics of irrational with more complex, integrated, arduous, uncertainties and risks recently. It is bound to be a serious obstacle to the national economic development in China if we can not restrain it in time.
How to make the real estate development in the city tends to rational development has become an urgent and necessary practical problems. It will play an important role in the well-off society building, the scientific concept of development adhering, the harmonious socialist society establishing as well as in striving to build a resource-conserving and environment-friendly society.
This article studies the operation mechanism and mode of development of the real estate in the city from a rational perspective. This article attempts to find a point which will be sustained by the economy, recognized by the social and cooperated by the real estate developers and government. Establishing the rational developing mode of the real estate in the city according to this standards, then lead the main market, such as government, intermediary organizations and consumers, to cooperate to this mode. At last, we will make the operation and development of the Chinese real estate market more rational.
The main contents and conclusions are as follows:
(1)On the basis of the literature review,we research on the real estate industry in China and the rise of evolution initially, then from the investment, sales, price as well as the real estate bubble and the overall effectiveness on the level of 5 aspects which has carried on the review and the analysis to our country real estate industry development current situation, and has obtained the following several characteristics, that the scale of investment in real estate development slowed down the pace, however, maintain a relatively high rate of investment; The total investment in Commercial residential building has increased year by year, residential real estate investment has become a top priority, occupied nearly 70% of the share; Real estate sales continued to grow, but there are a large number of remaining vacant, this cover plate with the developers reluctant to sell, effective supply shortage caused by malicious and then rises the price of the house; the price of Commercial residential building increase every year, under the national macro-control policy to suppress prices in 2005 the growth rate slowed down, but still no suppression of the sharp rise in housing prices as well as the obvious characteristics of the region for five characteristics,followed by a description of China's urban real estate problems. Finally, there is a brief description on evolution of our urban real estate as well as the characteristics and the trends with the future.
(2)Then this article used the 15-year Statistical Yearbook data from 1993 to 2007 to do a discriminant analysis on the real estate development stages. We divided the real estate development in China into three stages: the initial stage, the developing stage as well as the prosperity stage. We set up the discriminant model according to the on-hand data, and then use the model to analyze the stage of the real estate industry development in Jilin Province, we have concluded that: the developing stage of the real estate industry in Jilin Province start in 2003,at the same time also shows that the real estate industry development in Jilin Province has the same trend with that in China, but the development phase of the time is a little behind the national level.
(3) This article puts forward the hypothesis of the study in this paper on the basis of the review of the literature, and verifies these assumptions through the structural equation model. These assumptions mainly are as follows: real estate human investment has a positive correlation to the material output, real estate human investment has a positive correlation to the capital-output, real estate investment has a positive correlation to the material output, real estate investment has a positive correlation to the capital output, real estate material investment has a positive correlation to the material output; real estate material investment has a positive correlation to the capital-output. All the assumptions are supported by the data. Then we opened the black box of inputs to outputs, introduced the real estate price variables, and verify the role of the prices in real estate investment and output.
(4) We learned the real estate development model in foreign developed countries, such as the United States, Japan, Germany, put forward the real estate industry development model in China. On the basis of the cluster analysis, we divided the 35 large and medium-sized cities in China into three categories and used the discriminant formula to amend the results of the cluster analysis to ensure the reasonableness of the classification. On this base, put forward the development models the real estate industry should be taken in different stages in China.
The contributions of the paper are as follows:
1、Building the comprehensive operation model of real estate and using statistical data and subjective data to test it. Past studies focused on the complex operation of real estate and its outer factors, such as demand, few papers focus on its inner operation. There are only a few papers concentrating on inputs and outputs respectively and didn’t pay attention to their relationship. This paper studied the inner operation mechanism based on the relation between input and output. This enriches the research of real estate by using subjective and objective data to test the model.
2、Using discrimnant analysis to divide the development of real estate intothree stages and getting the discrimnant equations. This can be the base for other ciries. Past researchers divided the development into several stages according to the governmental policies. Although their division was reasonable to some extent, whether their results are suitable to other small cities needs discussing, because different regions show different features. This part supplements and enriches the theoty of real estate and can give directions for real estate development.
3、using cluster analysis to analyze 35 cities and dividing them into three lecels and comparing their features. Past researches used real estate price and ration of take-up to differentiate the development of real estate, but this paper uses five indexes to cluster and this is a try in the study of real estate development.
In our text, we explored the existing problems in the real estate industry combined the theory with practice. With scientific analysis, we find the suitable real estate industry of our urban development model, and hope that this article could provide more reference on real estate development of China in the future.
引文
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