救助船在大风浪中的安全性评价及选用的研究
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摘要
近年,国家对海上救助力量的投入不断加大,救助系统的整体实力与日俱增。但是我国应急救助指挥仍然保持着依靠人工分析、判断和制定救助决策的传统模式,不能满足对突发事件快速与科学地制定应急救助决策的要求。国外相关研究和系统开发具有较高的独立性和封闭性；国内相关研究相对较少,部分研究的科学性与可行性也有待商榷。
本文以提高国家海上应急搜救的效率和成功率为目的,首先通过实地走访调研救助局现役救助船舶的各项参数,设计了救助船舶失速和航线风压差调研表格,并多次举办专家座谈进行问卷调研,完成了北海救助局现役主力救助船舶基本资料的收集；其次,在对模糊数学、风险理论、电子海图等专业知识进行了认真的学习与研究之后,在导师的指点下建立了救助船舶风险度评估模型,并创建航线风险度评估模式,同时提出基于电子海图的水文气象综合显示及救助船舶航线优选平台的功能需求,设计了基于此平台的航线风险评估流程；最后在电子海图平台和计算机技术的支持下实现了气象要素的综合显示、救助船舶和航线风险度的评估、救助船舶航线的优选与动态演示,为决策者优选救助船舶提供辅助参考。
In recent years, our country has been making increasing efforts to salvage at sea, which makes the entire strength of the salvage system grow with each day passing by. However, the emergency relief command system still keeps the operating mode of manual analysis, judgment and salvage decision making, which can not meet the fast and scientific salvage decision-making requirements on emergencies. The related research and system development abroad are highly independent and encapsulated. There are only a few domestic studies, whose scientificity and feasibility are still debatable.
This thesis aims to improve the efficiency of national emergency salvage at sea and its success rate. First, based on parameters from field study to the active salvage ships in Sea Rescue Bureaus, the investigation forms on salvage ship stalling and ship route leeway angle are set up. A series of symposia and questionnaires are carried out to the experts and information on the main active salvage ships in North China Sea Rescue Bureau is collected.
Second, salvage ship's risk degree evaluation model is set up after study on Fuzzy Mathematics, Risk Theory, electronic chart and other professional knowledge, as well as under the supervisor's instruction. Besides, based on hydro meteorology comprehensive display of the electronic chart and the function requirements of optimized salvage ship route, the sea route risk assessment process is designed.
Finally, under the support of electronic chart platform and computer technology, meteorological elements, reasonable assessment on salvage ship and sea route risk degree, as well as optimized salvage ship route selection are comprehensively displayed and dynamically demonstrated. It provides supplementary reference on selecting optimized salvage ship for decision makers.
本文以提高国家海上应急搜救的效率和成功率为目的,首先通过实地走访调研救助局现役救助船舶的各项参数,设计了救助船舶失速和航线风压差调研表格,并多次举办专家座谈进行问卷调研,完成了北海救助局现役主力救助船舶基本资料的收集；其次,在对模糊数学、风险理论、电子海图等专业知识进行了认真的学习与研究之后,在导师的指点下建立了救助船舶风险度评估模型,并创建航线风险度评估模式,同时提出基于电子海图的水文气象综合显示及救助船舶航线优选平台的功能需求,设计了基于此平台的航线风险评估流程；最后在电子海图平台和计算机技术的支持下实现了气象要素的综合显示、救助船舶和航线风险度的评估、救助船舶航线的优选与动态演示,为决策者优选救助船舶提供辅助参考。
In recent years, our country has been making increasing efforts to salvage at sea, which makes the entire strength of the salvage system grow with each day passing by. However, the emergency relief command system still keeps the operating mode of manual analysis, judgment and salvage decision making, which can not meet the fast and scientific salvage decision-making requirements on emergencies. The related research and system development abroad are highly independent and encapsulated. There are only a few domestic studies, whose scientificity and feasibility are still debatable.
This thesis aims to improve the efficiency of national emergency salvage at sea and its success rate. First, based on parameters from field study to the active salvage ships in Sea Rescue Bureaus, the investigation forms on salvage ship stalling and ship route leeway angle are set up. A series of symposia and questionnaires are carried out to the experts and information on the main active salvage ships in North China Sea Rescue Bureau is collected.
Second, salvage ship's risk degree evaluation model is set up after study on Fuzzy Mathematics, Risk Theory, electronic chart and other professional knowledge, as well as under the supervisor's instruction. Besides, based on hydro meteorology comprehensive display of the electronic chart and the function requirements of optimized salvage ship route, the sea route risk assessment process is designed.
Finally, under the support of electronic chart platform and computer technology, meteorological elements, reasonable assessment on salvage ship and sea route risk degree, as well as optimized salvage ship route selection are comprehensively displayed and dynamically demonstrated. It provides supplementary reference on selecting optimized salvage ship for decision makers.
引文
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[51]井上欣三.有关提高暴风雨天锚泊安全性的研究.航海旧本航海学会杂志),1985(84)：28-37.
[52]刘大刚,郑中义,吴兆麟.大风浪中船舶安全性评估方法综述.交通运输工程学报,2003,(01).
[53]王逢臣,夏国忠,孙立成.船舶在大风浪中安危的估计.中国航海学会海洋船舶驾驶专业委员会论文集.北京：中国航海学会,1995-1997.52-56.
[54]Shuutao Wan, Akiji SHINKAI. Statistical prediction of deck Wetness on an ocean-going ship. The Journal of Japan Iustitute of Shipbuilding,1996,180:151-158.
[55]Susumu KUWASHIMA. The actual state of ship encounter wave and ship's motions-a trial assemble of voyage recorder. The Journal of Japan Institute of Navigation,1991, 86:153-160.
[56]杨保璋,石爱国,大风浪中多因素优化航向航速选择.中国航海,1991,38(1)：30-40.
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[2]许志远.国家海上搜救能力评价及对策研究.大连海事大学硕士论文,2007.
[3]www. scio.gov.cn(国务院新闻办公室门户网站),交通运输部2010年中国海上搜救工作新闻发布会.
[4]邓顺华,冯世栋,刘凯然.十年搜救彰显负责任政府形象.2008(18)
[5]郑强.浅谈专业救助船在大风浪救助作业中的风险及其防范措施.中国水运,2010(10)：49-53.
[6]梁永铭.浙江沿海搜救能力评估及管理对策研究.大连海事大学硕士论文,2008.
[7]冯明初,王中.失事舰舶援救方案评估软件设计.船海工程,2006(3)：66-68.
[8]赫永霞.海上搜救决策支持系统的研究与开发.大连海事大学硕士论文,2008.
[9]刘渐道,张英俊,朱博麟,朱飞祥.基于Web电子海图的海洋气象信息服务系统.
[10]http://www.ccg-gcc.gc.ca/sar/docs.VesselProcedures_e.htm
[11]http://www.uscg.mil(美国海岸警卫队官方网站)
[12]http://www.uscg.mill/history/coastguard2020.pdf
[13]http://www.mega.gov.uk/c4mca/mcga-uk_sar_framework_document.pdf
[14]Dean Lee. The Comparison of Professional Rescuing Boats in England and American,2006.
[15]罗水宏.海上搜救智能辅助决策系统探究,中国航海,2004(3)：21-24.
[16]马文耀,毕修颖,杜健.基于电子海图的海上搜寻与救助决策系统软件的实现.船海工程,2009(1)：62-64.
[17]谭朝阳.海上搜救管理及其能力评价—广州救捞局搜救问题研究.大连海事大学硕士论文,2003.
[18]吴中鼎.海上搜救辅助系统研究.中国海洋大学,2003.
[19]许晶,杨奕,杨佑宗,杨存国.新型海洋救助船主要尺度选择、线型设计及研究.中国造船,2008(49)：91-98.
[20]王致维.沿海快速救生船船型分析及救助方式设想.交通科技,2004(4)：140-141.
[21]姚荣青.谈专业救助船舶的特点及承担的使命.中国航海,2008(1)：79-80.
[22]王凤武.船舶在风浪中航行失速问题探讨.世界海运,1998,(04).
[23]王风武.船舶在风浪中航行的临界速度探讨.世界海运,1998,(02).
[24]洪碧光.船舶操纵原理与技术.大连：大连海事大学出版社,2007.
[25]古文贤.船舶操纵.大连：大连海运学院出版社,1993.
[26]褚善东.船舶在大风浪中航行产生的失速问题探讨.浙江国际海运职业技术学院学 报,2008,(02).
[27]韩忠南.船舶在波浪中航行失速问题探讨.海洋预报,1986,(3)：10-14.
[28]郭志新.船舶在大风浪中的安全措施.交通科技,2001,(4)：48-49.
[29]王凤武,贾传荧.船舶抗风浪等级的研究.大连海事大学学报,1998,25(1)：61-63.
[30]杨佑宗,许晶.8000 kW海洋救助船模刑快速性试验研究报告.中国船舶科学研究中心报告,2003.
[31]黄跃峰.海上人命救助罧难度评价.大连海事大学硕士论文,2010.
[32]Megill R E. Risk Analysis. Tulsa:Petroleum Publishing Company,1977,202-212.
[33]Henley E J, Hiromitsu Kumamoto. Reliability Engineering and Risk Assessment. Englewood Cliffs:Prentice-Hall Inc.1981:16-38.
[34]Max R, Wideman. Project and Program Risk Management. Project Institute, USA,1992.
[35]IMO M sc/Circ.1023&MEPC/Circ 392. Cuidelines for Formal Safety Assessrnent (FSA) for use in the IMO Rule-Making Process,5 April 2002.
[36]丁义明,方福康.风险概念分析.系统工程学报,2001,16(5)：401-406.
[37]UKOOA. A Framework for Risk Related Decision Support. UK Offshore Operators Association, London,1999:63-66.
[38]Robert W R, James L R, Thomas D. Incorporating risk assess meat and benefit-cost analysis in environment management. Risk Analysis,1988,8(3):415-420.
[39]刘大刚,郑中义,吴兆麟.大风浪中航行船舶风险体系分析.交通运输工程学报,2004,(02)
[40]刘翔飞.船舶—大风浪区动态标绘及安全评价系统的研究.大连海事大学硕十论文,2009.
[41]NPD. Regulations Relating to Implementation and Use of Risk Analysis in the Petroleum Activities. Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.1990:11-17.
[42]刘伟.船舶溢油风险评估研究.大连海事大学,2008.
[43]Kletz T. Hazop and Hazan-Identifying and assessing process industry hazards. 3rd edition. Warwick-shireCV213HQ. UK:Institution of Chemical Engineers,1992.
[44]Pitblado R, Turney R. Risk Analysis in the Process Industries. European Federation Chemical Engineers, Institution of Chemical Engineers, Ruby, UK.1995:56-65.
[45]HSE. The Use of Risk Assessment with in Government Departments. Health and Safety Executive, HMSO,1996.
[46]林羲和.风险评审技术在方案论证中的应用.中南大学学报(自然科版),1986：(5).
[47]郑丽,杨涛,郑丹.故障树分析法在故障预测中的应用.电气时代,2005(8)：81-82.
[48]郑荣跃,简小生,俞凯磊,杨银赞.基于事件树分析法的大跨斜拉桥施工事故分析,工程力学,2008(6)：203-208.
[49]刘晓君,孟凡文.模糊层次分析法在房地产投资风险评价中的应用.西安建筑科技人学学报(自然科学版),2005,37(1)：135-138.
[50]Charnes A. Using DEA to evaluate E. measuring the efficiency of decision making units. European Journal of Operational Research,1978(6):429-444.
[51]井上欣三.有关提高暴风雨天锚泊安全性的研究.航海旧本航海学会杂志),1985(84)：28-37.
[52]刘大刚,郑中义,吴兆麟.大风浪中船舶安全性评估方法综述.交通运输工程学报,2003,(01).
[53]王逢臣,夏国忠,孙立成.船舶在大风浪中安危的估计.中国航海学会海洋船舶驾驶专业委员会论文集.北京：中国航海学会,1995-1997.52-56.
[54]Shuutao Wan, Akiji SHINKAI. Statistical prediction of deck Wetness on an ocean-going ship. The Journal of Japan Iustitute of Shipbuilding,1996,180:151-158.
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