供应链的鲁棒性度量及敏感性分析
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摘要
由于供应链系统本身的复杂性以及所处环境的开放性,供应链系统在运行过程中不可避免的会遇到来自内部运作以及外部突发事件所带来的各种不确定性,在这种情况下,供应链系统中的每一个环节都存在着潜在的风险,如果其中的一个或者多个环节出现问题,供应链系统却不能抵抗,则整个供应链系统的运行都会受到严重的影响。
文章针对供应链系统面临众多不确定性条件的现实,研究供应链鲁棒性的内涵及其度量方法,通过比较现有的供应链鲁棒性的定义,给出概括性较强的定义,使得供应链鲁棒性定义更具体化。根据供应链网络的基本结构给出供应链网络鲁棒性的影响因素,并进行具体分析,随后给出供应链鲁棒性的度量方法,具体是从满足顾客需求的角度出发,分别从三个方面对供应链网络的鲁棒性进行度量,然后在综合得出整体的供应链网络的鲁棒性,接下来从去点和去边两个角度进行供应链网络鲁棒性的敏感性分析,研究给定供应链的鲁棒性在节点和连线分别发生故障时的变化,分析供应链鲁棒性影响因素的不同变化对供应链鲁棒性的不同影响,运用系统分析相关理论和方法对供应链网络鲁棒性影响因素之间的相互关系和供应链网络鲁棒性的度量进行评价。在这个过程中,验证了敏感性分析中所得出的结论,并且给出评价一个给定供应链网络的鲁棒性水平是高或者低的方法。
本文对供应链网络鲁棒性度量及敏感性分析,从不同的角度进行研究,使用了多种不同的数学方法,对于供应链网络鲁棒性的进一步研究具有一定的指导意义。
The supply chain system will inevitably encounter many uncertainties from the internal operation and external emergencies in the operation Because of the complexity of the supply chain system and the open environment it is in. In this situation, there is a potential risk in every aspect of supply chain system, if one or more aspects has or have problem, the whole supply chain system operation will be severely affected
This dissertation has done a research on the content and metrics of the supply chain robustness based on the reality of the conditions that the supply chain system is facing many uncertainties, and given a general definition of the supply chain robustness by comparing the existing definition of the supply chain robustness, in order to make the definition of the supply chain robustness more specific.
According to the basic structure of the supply chain network, This dissertation proposed the impacting factors of the supply chain robustness and specific analysis of it, and then gives a measurement approach of the supply chain robustness, which based the objective of meeting the specific customer needs. The measurement is made up of three parts, and the three parts’robustness come to the overall integrated supply chain network robustness. Then there is the sensitivity analysis of the supply chain network robustness with node losing or link gone, gives a research on how the supply chain network robustness will change when this happens, and how will the supply chain robustness when the impacting factors of the supply chain robustness change.
This dissertation analyzes the relationship between the impacting factors of the supply chain robustness and evaluates the measurement approach of the supply chain robustness by using the relevant theories and methods of systems analysis. The analysis proved the result given in the sensitivity analysis, and proposes a method of evaluating the level of robustness of a given supply chain network.
文章针对供应链系统面临众多不确定性条件的现实,研究供应链鲁棒性的内涵及其度量方法,通过比较现有的供应链鲁棒性的定义,给出概括性较强的定义,使得供应链鲁棒性定义更具体化。根据供应链网络的基本结构给出供应链网络鲁棒性的影响因素,并进行具体分析,随后给出供应链鲁棒性的度量方法,具体是从满足顾客需求的角度出发,分别从三个方面对供应链网络的鲁棒性进行度量,然后在综合得出整体的供应链网络的鲁棒性,接下来从去点和去边两个角度进行供应链网络鲁棒性的敏感性分析,研究给定供应链的鲁棒性在节点和连线分别发生故障时的变化,分析供应链鲁棒性影响因素的不同变化对供应链鲁棒性的不同影响,运用系统分析相关理论和方法对供应链网络鲁棒性影响因素之间的相互关系和供应链网络鲁棒性的度量进行评价。在这个过程中,验证了敏感性分析中所得出的结论,并且给出评价一个给定供应链网络的鲁棒性水平是高或者低的方法。
本文对供应链网络鲁棒性度量及敏感性分析,从不同的角度进行研究,使用了多种不同的数学方法,对于供应链网络鲁棒性的进一步研究具有一定的指导意义。
The supply chain system will inevitably encounter many uncertainties from the internal operation and external emergencies in the operation Because of the complexity of the supply chain system and the open environment it is in. In this situation, there is a potential risk in every aspect of supply chain system, if one or more aspects has or have problem, the whole supply chain system operation will be severely affected
This dissertation has done a research on the content and metrics of the supply chain robustness based on the reality of the conditions that the supply chain system is facing many uncertainties, and given a general definition of the supply chain robustness by comparing the existing definition of the supply chain robustness, in order to make the definition of the supply chain robustness more specific.
According to the basic structure of the supply chain network, This dissertation proposed the impacting factors of the supply chain robustness and specific analysis of it, and then gives a measurement approach of the supply chain robustness, which based the objective of meeting the specific customer needs. The measurement is made up of three parts, and the three parts’robustness come to the overall integrated supply chain network robustness. Then there is the sensitivity analysis of the supply chain network robustness with node losing or link gone, gives a research on how the supply chain network robustness will change when this happens, and how will the supply chain robustness when the impacting factors of the supply chain robustness change.
This dissertation analyzes the relationship between the impacting factors of the supply chain robustness and evaluates the measurement approach of the supply chain robustness by using the relevant theories and methods of systems analysis. The analysis proved the result given in the sensitivity analysis, and proposes a method of evaluating the level of robustness of a given supply chain network.
引文
[1]张涛,孙林岩,供应链不确定性管理,北京:清华大学出版社,2005
[2]马士华,林勇,供应链管理,北京:高等教育出版社,2003
[3]孟繁华,基于复杂网络的供应链建模及其鲁棒性分析:[学位论文],保定;华北电力大学,2009
[4] Feng Pan, Rakesh Nagi, Robust supply chain design under uncertain demand in agile manufacturing, Computers &Operations Research,2010,37:668~68
[5] Dimitris Bertsimas, Aur′elie Thiele, A robust optimization approach to supply chain management, Integer Programming and Combinatorial Optimization, 2004, Volume 3064/2004: 145~156
[6] Walid Klibi, Alain Martel, Adel Guitouni, The design of robust value-creating supply chain networks: A critical review, European Journal of Operational Research,2010,203 (2010): 283~293
[7] Marco Laumannsa, Erjen Lefeber, Robust optimal control of material flows in demand-driven supply networks, Physica A,2006, 363 (2006):24~31
[8] Xiang Li, Thomas E. Marlin, Robust supply chain performance via Model Predictive Control, Computers and Chemical Engineering, 2009,33 (2009): 2134~2143
[9] Stein W.Wallace, Tsan-MingChoi, Flexibility, information structure, options, and market power in robust supply chains, Int. J. Production Economics, 2011,134 (2): 284~288
[10] Marc Goetschalckx,Tjendera Santoso,Shabbir Ahmed,Alexander Shapiro, Designing robust supply chains, Aladdin Workshop,2003
[11] El-Houssaine Aghezzaf和Hendrik Van Landeghem, Robust supply chain design: an integrated hierarchical planning, Carles Sitompul-FirW-IR18,2007
[12] Walid Klibi,Alain Martel,The design of effective and robust supply chain networks, CIRRELT,2009
[13] Cheng-Chang Lin, Robust strategies for mitigating supply chain disruptions, Global Logistics Management,2008
[14]刘小峰,陈国华,基于复杂网络的供应链鲁棒性分析,东南大学学报(自然科学版),2007,第37卷增刊(Ⅱ)
[15]张昕瑞,王恒山,供应链鲁棒性作用模型及衡量研究,江苏商论,2009:116~118
[16]辛玉红,供应链系统鲁棒性研究: [博士学位论文],北京;北京信息控制研究所,2008
[17]王英楠,孙华,供应链中柔性承诺问题的一种鲁棒优化方法,理论新探,2007, 243: 14~15
[18]徐家旺,黄小原,市场供求不确定供应链的多目标鲁棒运作模型,系统工程理论与实践,2006,第6期:35~40
[19]林佳,穆东,供应链系统稳定性的集对分析,物流技术,2006,第12期:68~7
[20]罗昌,贾素玲,王惠文,基于系统动力学的供应链稳定性研究,系统仿真学报,2008,第20卷第14期:3815~3824
[21]Christopher M, Logistics and Supply Chain Management, Pitman Pr.,1992
[22]涂一锴,管志安,供应链的信息流管理,工业技术经济,2002,(1):49~51
[23]David J. Closs, Diane A. Mollenkopf, A global supply chain framework, Industrial Marketing Management,2004, 33 (2004): 37~ 44
[24]Kleindorfer,P. R. and G. H. Saad, Managing disruption risks in supply chains, Production and Operations Management,2005,14(1): 53
[25]吴军,李健,汪寿阳,供应链风险管理中的几个重要问题,管理科学学报,2006,第6期
[26]Lalwani,C. S.,S. M. Disney,et al,On assessing the sensitivity to uncertainty in distribution network design, International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management,2006,36(1): 5
[27]周艳菊,邱莞华,供应链风险管理研究进展的综述与分析,系统工程,2006,24(3)
[28]许健,供应链风险识别与控制对策分析,品牌(理论月刊),2011,第5期:41
[29]Sarathy,R,Security and the global supply chain, Transportation Journal, 2006,45(4): 28
[30]Hendricks,K. B. and V. R. Singhal, Association between supply chain glitches and operating performance, Management Science 51(5): 695
[31]Lee.H. L. and S. Whang,Higher supply chain security with lower cost: Lessons from total quality management, International Journal of Production Economics2005,96(3): 289
[32]王献伟,浅谈如何提高控制系统的鲁棒性,科技创新导报,2010,第3期
[33]安军,鲁棒性分析的方法论意义,科学技术哲学研究.2011,第28卷第5期: 26~30
[34]Bertsimasd, Thielea, A robust optimization approach to inventory theory, Operations Research, 2006,54(1):150~168
[35]Jen.E.Definitions[EB/OL].SantaFeInstituteRobustnessSite,RS_2001_009,http://discuss.santafe.edu/robustness,Oct, 22, 2001
[36]黄小原,晏妮娜,供应链鲁棒性问题的研究进展,管理学报,2007年7月
[37]Jen E. Overview[EB/OL]. http://discuss.santafe.edu/robustness/stories/StoryReader$16, 2003, Feb, 6th
[38]Thomas M.U, Supply chain reliability for contingency operations,Reliability and Maintainability Symposium,2002
[39]牟政,供应链稳定性研究:硕士学位论文],北京;北京交通大学,2009
[40]戴立伟,甘敏,刘利民,我国各种运输方式的综合效率问题研究,福建论坛(社科教育版):物流·企业,2010年第2期:106~107
[41]王静,赵启兰,信息与供应链的稳定性,中国物流与采购:现代物流,2003年第14期:20~21
[42]顾培亮,系统分析与协调,天津:天津大学出版社,2008.97~102
[43]杜纲,管理数学基础—理论与应用,天津:天津大学出版社,2007,155~168
[2]马士华,林勇,供应链管理,北京:高等教育出版社,2003
[3]孟繁华,基于复杂网络的供应链建模及其鲁棒性分析:[学位论文],保定;华北电力大学,2009
[4] Feng Pan, Rakesh Nagi, Robust supply chain design under uncertain demand in agile manufacturing, Computers &Operations Research,2010,37:668~68
[5] Dimitris Bertsimas, Aur′elie Thiele, A robust optimization approach to supply chain management, Integer Programming and Combinatorial Optimization, 2004, Volume 3064/2004: 145~156
[6] Walid Klibi, Alain Martel, Adel Guitouni, The design of robust value-creating supply chain networks: A critical review, European Journal of Operational Research,2010,203 (2010): 283~293
[7] Marco Laumannsa, Erjen Lefeber, Robust optimal control of material flows in demand-driven supply networks, Physica A,2006, 363 (2006):24~31
[8] Xiang Li, Thomas E. Marlin, Robust supply chain performance via Model Predictive Control, Computers and Chemical Engineering, 2009,33 (2009): 2134~2143
[9] Stein W.Wallace, Tsan-MingChoi, Flexibility, information structure, options, and market power in robust supply chains, Int. J. Production Economics, 2011,134 (2): 284~288
[10] Marc Goetschalckx,Tjendera Santoso,Shabbir Ahmed,Alexander Shapiro, Designing robust supply chains, Aladdin Workshop,2003
[11] El-Houssaine Aghezzaf和Hendrik Van Landeghem, Robust supply chain design: an integrated hierarchical planning, Carles Sitompul-FirW-IR18,2007
[12] Walid Klibi,Alain Martel,The design of effective and robust supply chain networks, CIRRELT,2009
[13] Cheng-Chang Lin, Robust strategies for mitigating supply chain disruptions, Global Logistics Management,2008
[14]刘小峰,陈国华,基于复杂网络的供应链鲁棒性分析,东南大学学报(自然科学版),2007,第37卷增刊(Ⅱ)
[15]张昕瑞,王恒山,供应链鲁棒性作用模型及衡量研究,江苏商论,2009:116~118
[16]辛玉红,供应链系统鲁棒性研究: [博士学位论文],北京;北京信息控制研究所,2008
[17]王英楠,孙华,供应链中柔性承诺问题的一种鲁棒优化方法,理论新探,2007, 243: 14~15
[18]徐家旺,黄小原,市场供求不确定供应链的多目标鲁棒运作模型,系统工程理论与实践,2006,第6期:35~40
[19]林佳,穆东,供应链系统稳定性的集对分析,物流技术,2006,第12期:68~7
[20]罗昌,贾素玲,王惠文,基于系统动力学的供应链稳定性研究,系统仿真学报,2008,第20卷第14期:3815~3824
[21]Christopher M, Logistics and Supply Chain Management, Pitman Pr.,1992
[22]涂一锴,管志安,供应链的信息流管理,工业技术经济,2002,(1):49~51
[23]David J. Closs, Diane A. Mollenkopf, A global supply chain framework, Industrial Marketing Management,2004, 33 (2004): 37~ 44
[24]Kleindorfer,P. R. and G. H. Saad, Managing disruption risks in supply chains, Production and Operations Management,2005,14(1): 53
[25]吴军,李健,汪寿阳,供应链风险管理中的几个重要问题,管理科学学报,2006,第6期
[26]Lalwani,C. S.,S. M. Disney,et al,On assessing the sensitivity to uncertainty in distribution network design, International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management,2006,36(1): 5
[27]周艳菊,邱莞华,供应链风险管理研究进展的综述与分析,系统工程,2006,24(3)
[28]许健,供应链风险识别与控制对策分析,品牌(理论月刊),2011,第5期:41
[29]Sarathy,R,Security and the global supply chain, Transportation Journal, 2006,45(4): 28
[30]Hendricks,K. B. and V. R. Singhal, Association between supply chain glitches and operating performance, Management Science 51(5): 695
[31]Lee.H. L. and S. Whang,Higher supply chain security with lower cost: Lessons from total quality management, International Journal of Production Economics2005,96(3): 289
[32]王献伟,浅谈如何提高控制系统的鲁棒性,科技创新导报,2010,第3期
[33]安军,鲁棒性分析的方法论意义,科学技术哲学研究.2011,第28卷第5期: 26~30
[34]Bertsimasd, Thielea, A robust optimization approach to inventory theory, Operations Research, 2006,54(1):150~168
[35]Jen.E.Definitions[EB/OL].SantaFeInstituteRobustnessSite,RS_2001_009,http://discuss.santafe.edu/robustness,Oct, 22, 2001
[36]黄小原,晏妮娜,供应链鲁棒性问题的研究进展,管理学报,2007年7月
[37]Jen E. Overview[EB/OL]. http://discuss.santafe.edu/robustness/stories/StoryReader$16, 2003, Feb, 6th
[38]Thomas M.U, Supply chain reliability for contingency operations,Reliability and Maintainability Symposium,2002
[39]牟政,供应链稳定性研究:硕士学位论文],北京;北京交通大学,2009
[40]戴立伟,甘敏,刘利民,我国各种运输方式的综合效率问题研究,福建论坛(社科教育版):物流·企业,2010年第2期:106~107
[41]王静,赵启兰,信息与供应链的稳定性,中国物流与采购:现代物流,2003年第14期:20~21
[42]顾培亮,系统分析与协调,天津:天津大学出版社,2008.97~102
[43]杜纲,管理数学基础—理论与应用,天津:天津大学出版社,2007,155~168