中国保险业有效供给、效率及风险问题研究
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摘要
保险业的有效供给、效率及风险是制约和影响保险业发展的三个主要因素,并内在地反映了保险业的发展程度和发展质量;同时也是目前中国保险业凸显的现实问题,更是关系保险业未来健康发展的主要问题。
本文从分析保险产业的特征出发,以有关经济学理论、金融发展理论和保险发展理论为依据,以保险发展的三大内部矛盾为逻辑起点,建立了一个基于有效供给、效率及风险的保险业发展分析框架,通过揭示有效供给、效率及风险对保险业发展的影响、作用机制和互动关系,旨在对现阶段中国保险业发展中的有效供给、效率及风险状况进行分析和评价,并以此来判断保险业目前的发展质量和程度,在此基础上提出了促进中国保险业发展的政策建议。
本文在保险业发展分析框架中提出:有效供给是保险业发展的内在动力、效率是保险有效供给的基础、风险控制是有效供给能力的保障,三者的良性互动是保险业健康发展的关键。通过综合运用社会调查和统计数据、财务比率分析法和数据包络分析方法(DEA)以及因子分析法,对保险供求状况和保险业供给能力、保险业技术效率和全要素生产率以及保险业的承保风险、投资风险和偿付能力风险进行了实证研究。结果表明,中国保险业存在明显的有效供给不足,整体效率较低,偿付能力潜藏着一定的风险。总体来看,中国保险业的发展质量不高,必须通过提高效率、控制风险以增加有效供给,推动保险业的可持续发展。
Effective supply, efficiency and risk of insurance industry are three key factors restricting and influencing insurance industry development, They can reflect inherently the level and quality of the insurance industry development. At the same time These three issues are also current reality problems and important problems concerning the healthy development in the future in Chinese insurance industry.
Starting from an analysis of the features of the insurance industry, and based on some economics theory, financial development theory and insurance development theory, this article, with three internal conflicts as the starting point of logical analysis, constructed a frame of insurance industry development analysis based on effective supply, efficiency and risk, which locates theoretically the role, influence and interrelations of effective supply, efficiency and risks during the development of insurance industry. According to the analysis frame, this article analyzed and evaluated the situation of effective supply, efficiency and risk in the current stage of the Chinese insurance industry, on the basis of which, it judged how well and to what degree the insurance industry has been developing currently, and it also made policy recommendations which may promote the industry development.
This article, according to the analysis frame of the insurance industry development, claims that effective supply is the internal driving force of insurance industry development, efficiency is the foundation of effective supply, risk control is the security of effective supply, and the benign interaction of these three factors is the key to the healthy development of insurance industry. By applying comprehensively social investigation, statistical data, financial ratio analysis, DEA and factor analysis, this article has an empirical study of the insurance supply and demand situation, the supply capability and technological efficiency of insurance industry, TFP, and the underwriting risk, investment risk and solvency risk of insurance industry on the 25 China-funded and foreign-funded life insurance or property insurance companies selected as samples. The findings show an obvious inadequacy of effective supply and a decreasing tendency in efficiency and a certain potential risk in solvency in the Chinese insurance industry. Overall, the development of the Chinese insurance industry is not satisfying in quality. A sustained development should be made by enhancing efficiency, controlling risks to increase effective supply.
本文从分析保险产业的特征出发,以有关经济学理论、金融发展理论和保险发展理论为依据,以保险发展的三大内部矛盾为逻辑起点,建立了一个基于有效供给、效率及风险的保险业发展分析框架,通过揭示有效供给、效率及风险对保险业发展的影响、作用机制和互动关系,旨在对现阶段中国保险业发展中的有效供给、效率及风险状况进行分析和评价,并以此来判断保险业目前的发展质量和程度,在此基础上提出了促进中国保险业发展的政策建议。
本文在保险业发展分析框架中提出:有效供给是保险业发展的内在动力、效率是保险有效供给的基础、风险控制是有效供给能力的保障,三者的良性互动是保险业健康发展的关键。通过综合运用社会调查和统计数据、财务比率分析法和数据包络分析方法(DEA)以及因子分析法,对保险供求状况和保险业供给能力、保险业技术效率和全要素生产率以及保险业的承保风险、投资风险和偿付能力风险进行了实证研究。结果表明,中国保险业存在明显的有效供给不足,整体效率较低,偿付能力潜藏着一定的风险。总体来看,中国保险业的发展质量不高,必须通过提高效率、控制风险以增加有效供给,推动保险业的可持续发展。
Effective supply, efficiency and risk of insurance industry are three key factors restricting and influencing insurance industry development, They can reflect inherently the level and quality of the insurance industry development. At the same time These three issues are also current reality problems and important problems concerning the healthy development in the future in Chinese insurance industry.
Starting from an analysis of the features of the insurance industry, and based on some economics theory, financial development theory and insurance development theory, this article, with three internal conflicts as the starting point of logical analysis, constructed a frame of insurance industry development analysis based on effective supply, efficiency and risk, which locates theoretically the role, influence and interrelations of effective supply, efficiency and risks during the development of insurance industry. According to the analysis frame, this article analyzed and evaluated the situation of effective supply, efficiency and risk in the current stage of the Chinese insurance industry, on the basis of which, it judged how well and to what degree the insurance industry has been developing currently, and it also made policy recommendations which may promote the industry development.
This article, according to the analysis frame of the insurance industry development, claims that effective supply is the internal driving force of insurance industry development, efficiency is the foundation of effective supply, risk control is the security of effective supply, and the benign interaction of these three factors is the key to the healthy development of insurance industry. By applying comprehensively social investigation, statistical data, financial ratio analysis, DEA and factor analysis, this article has an empirical study of the insurance supply and demand situation, the supply capability and technological efficiency of insurance industry, TFP, and the underwriting risk, investment risk and solvency risk of insurance industry on the 25 China-funded and foreign-funded life insurance or property insurance companies selected as samples. The findings show an obvious inadequacy of effective supply and a decreasing tendency in efficiency and a certain potential risk in solvency in the Chinese insurance industry. Overall, the development of the Chinese insurance industry is not satisfying in quality. A sustained development should be made by enhancing efficiency, controlling risks to increase effective supply.
引文
22 这一部分主要参考了刘茂山主编《保险发展学》,中国金融出版社2005年7月出版。
23 这一部分重点参考了何惠珍著《中国保险业可持续发展问题研究》,浙江大学出版社,2005年版
24 戈德史密斯《金融结构与金融发展39页,中国社会科学出版社,1993
25 参见刘茂山主编《保险发展学》226页,中国金融出版社2005年
26 以上统计数据分别来自《中国保险年鉴》和中国保监会网站公布的数据。
27 数据来源:《中国保险年鉴》(2007)
28 保费收入和GDP定基增长率是以1985年作为基期,1985年保费收入和GDP环比增长率是相对于1984年的相关数据
29 "Aspects of rational insurance purchasing",journal of political economy",Journal of Political Economy,79,553-568
30 平均保险倾向即居民或企业的保费支出占其全部收入的百分比.对其进行分析,有助于保险人针对投保人的需求状况,调整保险商品供给和内容。
31 参见蒲海成著《中国保险产品市场化的制度分析》,上海三联出版社,2006年
32 《中国保险业发展报告》2007,"中国大型企业的购买行为分析”
33 参见《中国经营报》报道或中国金融网,Http://www.zgjrw.com,2006年1月23日。
34 1957年,国家停办了所有强制性财产保险
35 参见《中国保险史》,中国金融出版社,1998年出版。
36 参见《中国保险史》446页
37 数据来自广东省保险行业协会网站公布。
38 参见《中国非寿险市场发展研究报告(2002)》136页
39 自留保费＝保费收入+分入保费－分出保费。
40 自留保费规模率＝自留保费/(资本金+公积金)
41 参见吴焰主编《中国非寿险市场发展报告》2006,180页,中国经济出版社
42 投资收入率之间的差别除了反映投资效率的不同之外,还有可能是由于各保险公司的险种结构不同而造成的
43 保费收入增长率＝(本年保费收入－上年保费收入)÷上年保费收入×100%
44 英国、日本及美国等发达国家于20世纪90年代赔付率一直在80%以上,近几年保险综合赔付率更是超过100%。
45 国债平均收益率是根据银行间债券市场和交易所债券市场的平均值;银行存款收益率是根据人民银行对保险公司存款利率、活期存款利率、五年期定期存款利率的平均值;证券投资基金收益率的计算公式是(资产规模差+当年分红额)/年初资产,计算过程中对数据进行了处理。 由于2006年的相关统计还没有公布,因此,对于这一部份只用1999-2005年的数据进行计算。
46 参见肖文著《中国保险业的创新与监管》 257页
47 这里的分析只是仅就各类投资资产进行分析,而没有考虑各类资产的收益率问题。在安排投资组合时,必然综合投资收益和风险来决定投资比例。
48 注:实际资产的扣减项目由于资料不足的原因,2003年以前的数据值扣减了固定资产和其他资产的1/10,2003年开始时扣减了固定资产和无形资产及其他资产的1/10,未考虑其他项目,因此实际资产有可能存在高估。以下公司相同。其中平安人寿在2004年前为财险寿险综合数据,新华2006年为2005年数据。数据来源各年《中国保险年鉴》。
49 长期保费收入增长率、短期险自留保费收入率、实际偿付能力额度变化率、险种组合变化率等)
50 说明:1996年中国的保险监管规定产寿险分业经营,在此之前没有关于寿险单独的财务报表,公司的财务报告反映的是产险寿险综合经营情况。1996年之前的数据我们用中国人民保险公司整个公司的相关财务数据,1996年之后运用中国人寿保险公司的相关数据。这样的处理虽然有失精确,但适用于若干年份的比较,可以说明寿险经营偿付能力的整体变动趋势。各数据来源于历年的《中国保险年鉴》。
51 在一个完全竞争的市场中,一个企业如果长期处于低效率水平,那么其破产风险将会很大,并最终被迫退出市场。对于这种状况下效率与风险之间关系的探讨是需要进一步进行研究的一个方向。
52 前面分析中提到的风险与收益的匹配关系决定了风险会很大程度上对收益产生影响,而收益与产出又是密不可分的。
53 标准普尔公司发布的《中国保险业信用前瞻2006-2007》,转自《经济观察报》2006年7月30日。
54 该部分主要参考王国军编著《保险经济学》第六章,北京大学出版社,2006年版
55 参见王国军主编《保险经济学》,北京大学出版社,2006年版
56 参见王国军主编《保险经济学》,北京大学出版社,2006年版
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23 这一部分重点参考了何惠珍著《中国保险业可持续发展问题研究》,浙江大学出版社,2005年版
24 戈德史密斯《金融结构与金融发展39页,中国社会科学出版社,1993
25 参见刘茂山主编《保险发展学》226页,中国金融出版社2005年
26 以上统计数据分别来自《中国保险年鉴》和中国保监会网站公布的数据。
27 数据来源:《中国保险年鉴》(2007)
28 保费收入和GDP定基增长率是以1985年作为基期,1985年保费收入和GDP环比增长率是相对于1984年的相关数据
29 "Aspects of rational insurance purchasing",journal of political economy",Journal of Political Economy,79,553-568
30 平均保险倾向即居民或企业的保费支出占其全部收入的百分比.对其进行分析,有助于保险人针对投保人的需求状况,调整保险商品供给和内容。
31 参见蒲海成著《中国保险产品市场化的制度分析》,上海三联出版社,2006年
32 《中国保险业发展报告》2007,"中国大型企业的购买行为分析”
33 参见《中国经营报》报道或中国金融网,Http://www.zgjrw.com,2006年1月23日。
34 1957年,国家停办了所有强制性财产保险
35 参见《中国保险史》,中国金融出版社,1998年出版。
36 参见《中国保险史》446页
37 数据来自广东省保险行业协会网站公布。
38 参见《中国非寿险市场发展研究报告(2002)》136页
39 自留保费＝保费收入+分入保费－分出保费。
40 自留保费规模率＝自留保费/(资本金+公积金)
41 参见吴焰主编《中国非寿险市场发展报告》2006,180页,中国经济出版社
42 投资收入率之间的差别除了反映投资效率的不同之外,还有可能是由于各保险公司的险种结构不同而造成的
43 保费收入增长率＝(本年保费收入－上年保费收入)÷上年保费收入×100%
44 英国、日本及美国等发达国家于20世纪90年代赔付率一直在80%以上,近几年保险综合赔付率更是超过100%。
45 国债平均收益率是根据银行间债券市场和交易所债券市场的平均值;银行存款收益率是根据人民银行对保险公司存款利率、活期存款利率、五年期定期存款利率的平均值;证券投资基金收益率的计算公式是(资产规模差+当年分红额)/年初资产,计算过程中对数据进行了处理。 由于2006年的相关统计还没有公布,因此,对于这一部份只用1999-2005年的数据进行计算。
46 参见肖文著《中国保险业的创新与监管》 257页
47 这里的分析只是仅就各类投资资产进行分析,而没有考虑各类资产的收益率问题。在安排投资组合时,必然综合投资收益和风险来决定投资比例。
48 注:实际资产的扣减项目由于资料不足的原因,2003年以前的数据值扣减了固定资产和其他资产的1/10,2003年开始时扣减了固定资产和无形资产及其他资产的1/10,未考虑其他项目,因此实际资产有可能存在高估。以下公司相同。其中平安人寿在2004年前为财险寿险综合数据,新华2006年为2005年数据。数据来源各年《中国保险年鉴》。
49 长期保费收入增长率、短期险自留保费收入率、实际偿付能力额度变化率、险种组合变化率等)
50 说明:1996年中国的保险监管规定产寿险分业经营,在此之前没有关于寿险单独的财务报表,公司的财务报告反映的是产险寿险综合经营情况。1996年之前的数据我们用中国人民保险公司整个公司的相关财务数据,1996年之后运用中国人寿保险公司的相关数据。这样的处理虽然有失精确,但适用于若干年份的比较,可以说明寿险经营偿付能力的整体变动趋势。各数据来源于历年的《中国保险年鉴》。
51 在一个完全竞争的市场中,一个企业如果长期处于低效率水平,那么其破产风险将会很大,并最终被迫退出市场。对于这种状况下效率与风险之间关系的探讨是需要进一步进行研究的一个方向。
52 前面分析中提到的风险与收益的匹配关系决定了风险会很大程度上对收益产生影响,而收益与产出又是密不可分的。
53 标准普尔公司发布的《中国保险业信用前瞻2006-2007》,转自《经济观察报》2006年7月30日。
54 该部分主要参考王国军编著《保险经济学》第六章,北京大学出版社,2006年版
55 参见王国军主编《保险经济学》,北京大学出版社,2006年版
56 参见王国军主编《保险经济学》,北京大学出版社,2006年版
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[3][美]小阿瑟·威廉斯等著,马从辉、刘国翰译,《风险管理与保险》,经济科学出版社,2000。
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[8]《寿险公司内部控制研究》课题组著《寿险公司内部控制研究》,经济科学出版社,2005.5
[9]北京大学中国保险与社会保障研究中心编《民生保障与和谐社会》,北京大学出版社,2007.10
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[11]北京大学中国保险与社会保障研究中心编《风险管理与经济安全》,北京大学出版社,2006.10
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[15]陈文辉 主编《中国人身保险发展报告》2006,中国财政经济出版社.200742
[16]陈文辉主编《团体保险发展研究》,中央编译出版社,2005.1
[17]陈文辉主编《中国寿险业经营规律研究》,中国财政经济出版社,2008.1
[18]程太和、范从来,我国保险资金投资渠道与模式探讨,《保险研究》,2002.10
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[20]戴锦平,《保险投资效益风险分析》,《保险研究》2004.8
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[22]丁少群、阎建军、卓志.谈我国保险市场垄断竞争型结构转变.《商业时代》,2006.9
[23]丁孜山 丁蔚著《保险发展与创新》,复旦大学出版社,2006.6
[24]封进.《中国寿险经营的风险研究》,经济管理出版社.2002.10
[25]封进.中国寿险偿付能力变动的实证分析.《预测》.2003.1
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[27]傅安平.《寿险公司偿付能力监管》,中国社会科学出版社.2004.7
[28]方芳等编著,《中国保险业的对外开放与竞争力分析》,中国金融出版社,2005.5
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[30]关浣非著《保险利益论》,中国金融出版社,2003.2
[31]郭文昌,《中国保险业运行风险探析》,中国经济出版社,2007.4
[32]郭金龙编著,《我国保险业发展的实证分析和国际经验》,经济管理出版社,2005.6
[33]国家信息中心中国经济信息网编著《中国行业发展报告-保险业》,中国经济出版社,2005.3
[34]韩世群,《谈保险资金运用现状及风险管理》,《现代管理科学》2004.2
[35]何惠珍,《中国保险业可持续发展问题研究》,浙江大学出版社,2005.10
[36]何晓群,主编《现代统计分析方法与应用》,中国人民大学出版社 1999年
[37]候晋、朱磊,我国保险公司经营效率的非寿险实证分析,《南开经济研究》,2004.4。
[38]候致远、赵洪江,论保险公司的偿付能力及其管理,《中国保险管理干部学院学报》,1998.1
[39]霍再强 著《现代金融风险管理》,科学出版社2004年10月第一版
[40]贾 康 周雪飞 著《转型时期中国金融改革与风险防范》,中国财政经济出版社2003年版
[41]江生忠,《中国保险产业组织优化研究》,中国社会科学出版社,2003年
[42]江生忠主编,《中国保险业发展报告》2007,中国财政经济出版社,2007.9
[43]江生忠等著,《中国保险业改革与发展前沿问题》,机械工业出版社,2006.1
[44]江生忠等著《入世后提高中国保险业竞争力研究》,中国财政经济出版社,2007.3
[45]江生忠主编,《保险学理论研究》,中国金融出版社,2007.11
[46]李陈华,张伟,企业规模V S效率:对中国保险企业的DEA经验研究,《系统工程,》2005.9
[47]李剑英,刘婷婷《保险偿付能力监管的国际比较与启示》,《江西财经大学学报》2004.6
[48]李克穆、李开斌著,《个人保险产品创新研究》,2005.5
[49]李克成,国内寿险公司经营效率的实证分析,{保险研究》2005.2
[50]李量,《我国保险资金证券投资的三大风险》,《金融论坛》.2006.6
[51]李维安,曹廷求,保险公司治理:理论模式与我国的改革,《保险研究》,2005.4
[52]李秀芳 著《寿险精算实务》,南开大学出版社,2002年.
[53]李秀芳,我国寿险业的利率风险分析及其防范,《南开经济研究》,2000.1
[54]李亚静、朱宏泉、何跃,基于VaR的风险分析理论与计算方法,《预测》,2000.5
[55]李茂生、李光荣《做大做强中国保险业:理性认识和战略行动》,中国社会科学出版社,2007.1
[56]李扬、李光荣主编《2007中国保险前沿问题研究》,经济科学出版社,2007.2
[57]李殿军主编《保险业九大课题》,中国金融出版社,2004.12
[58]李琼、周德新、钱晓勤《中国保险市场金融工具配置》,武汉大学出版社,2002.1
[59]林义,论保险资金运用的风险控制,《保险研究》 2002.9
[60]林江著《引入外资后中国保险产业组织研究》,中国社会科学出版社,2005.7
[61]林宝清著《保险发展模式论》,中国金融出版社,1992.5
[62]刘茂山 主编《保险发展学》,中国金融出版社,2005.2
[63]刘诗白主著,《中国转型期有效需求不足及其治理研究》,中国金融出版社,2004.1
[64]刘新立,论我国保险公司上市的收益与风险,《金融研究》,2003.2
[65]刘紫云,郑嘉龙,《论我国保险市场主要风险转化及其防范》,《保险研究》2005.12
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