中国不可再生能源效率研究
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摘要
能源是人类赖以生存和发展的最基本、最重要的自然资源,世界各国均将能源生产、消耗,提升到国家发展的重要战略高度。对中国而言,GDP的增长离不开化石能源的支撑,即不可再生能源的高强度消耗,特别在进入20世纪80年代以来,不可再生能源对经济发展的束缚日益突显。一方面,来自于经济增长和能源强度的冲击,使得中国不可再生能源消耗压力逐年增大,供需缺口日渐放大,加之获取国外资源受多方遏制,致使中国不可再生能源安全危机日益严重；另一方面,随着中国工业化进程的加快,各项由能源消耗特别是煤炭燃烧所排放的污染物数量已远超世界平均水平,但化石能源对中国工业化进程具有不可替代的支撑作用,这就将不可再生能源消耗、环境影响、经济发展三者限于两难局面；此外,在终端利用领域,单位不可再生能源投入获取的经济价值远远低于世界平均水平。目前,中国正处于经济社会发展的加速时期,以煤炭、石油和天然气为主体的不可再生能源的高效利用,是确保经济社会可持续发展的关键力量,由此可见,提高不可再生能源效率是中国未来经济发展的必然选择。那么中国不可再生能源消耗压力逐年增加、供需缺口日渐放大的驱动因素是什么呢?中国不可再生能源效率究竟如何测算?影响效率变动的关键因素如何识别?如何有效提升不可再生能源效率,确保不可再生能源-经济-环境系统的和谐、可持续发展?鉴于以上疑问,本文进行了一系列深入研究。
首先,对不可再生能源发展形势及压力进行分析,运用IPAT方程、LMDI分解法测算出中国不可再生能源消耗压力以及促成消耗压力逐年增大的驱动因素的作用机制与水平。研究证实了消耗压力的增加源于经济因素的驱动,消耗压力的减弱源于消耗强度的抑制性驱动作用,因此,减轻不可再生能源消耗压力必须从能源强度入手,即提高不可再生能源效率。
其次,基于道格拉斯生产函数和全要素生产率,构建不可再生能源效率测算模型和指标体系,分别以国家层面和省域层面作为研究对象,进行不可再生能源效率测算,并对效率之间的交互影响关系进行脉冲响应函数模型分析。研究证实了国家层面上不可再生能源效率总体呈现交替波动变化态势,经济收益效率与环境负荷效率水平整体普遍较低；省域层面上不可再生能源的平均效率水平是逐年下降的,平均经济收益效率水平较低且均处于有效前沿面下,平均环境负荷效率水平呈现波动下降趋势；经时间序列和面板脉冲响应函数冲击后,国家层面和省域层面上的不可再生能源效率值都存在交互影响关系,但作用方向和程度有所差别。
在此基础上,运用超效率DEA模型和方差分析法,对国家层面上不可再生能源效率的波动和省域层面上效率的差异进行验证性分析；借助单位根和协整检验、收敛模型,分别就国家层面上效率变动的均衡性和省域层面上效率差异的收敛性进行深入研究。研究证实了国家层面上不可再生能源效率值随着时间推移呈现波动变化趋势,但波动幅度较小；中国30个省市的不可再生能源效率值存在显著差异,与最优效率值的差异程度在不断扩大,效率较低省市向效率较高省市的赶超速度相对较慢。
然后,通过运用多层次灰色感知评价模型,识别出不可再生能源效率变动的关键影响因素,通过岭回归和面板模型回归分析,验证关键影响因素对国家层面和省域层面上能效水平的作用方向和程度。研究证实了产业结构优化升级、城市化进程速度的加快,在国家、省域层面上均有利于不可再生能源效率的改进：不可再生能源消费结构改善、信息化水平、研发经费支出比重以及对外开放程度等因素是典型的双向影响因素,具体作用效应视研究对象、环境、政策乃至区位条件的不同而定。
最后,从构建不可再生能源效率提升的网络平台、形成能效提升的共生体、持续进行效率提升的能力建设等方面着手,构建技术创新网络平台、政策干预网络平台、行为意愿网络平台和物质交换网络平台,从国家战略层面、省域规划层面、终端利用层面和公众认知层面进行统一协调,持续进行效率提升的能力建设,达到持续提高不可再生能源效率、降低环境污染影响的目的。
Energy is the most basic and important natural resources which back up the human survival and development. The countries all over the world ascend the importance of energy production and consumption to the national development. For China, GDP growth needs the support of fossil energy, namely high-intensity consumption of non-renewable energy. Especially from1980s, the constraint to economic development by non-renewable energy has been increasing prominent. On the one hand, from the impact of economic growth and energy intensity, the pressure of China's nonrenewable energy consumption has been increasing year by year. Meanwhile, the gap of supply and demand has been enlarging. In addition, due to the containment of obtaining overseas resources, China's non-renewable energy security crisis is becoming more and more serious. On the other hand, with the accelerating process of industrialization, the amount of pollutants emission caused by energy consumption especially coal has gone far beyond the world's average level. While fossil energy plays the irreplaceable-support role in China's industrialization process, which causes dilemma among non-renewable energy consumption, environmental impact and economic development. Additionally, in terminal application fields, the economic benefit from non-renewable energy input is lower than the world average level. At present, in the fast period of economic development, the efficient utilization of coal, oil and natural gas namely non-renewable energy ensures the sustainable development. Thus it can be seen, improving non-renewable energy consumption efficiency is an inevitable choice of China's economic development in the future. That is to say which are the driving factors of increasing pressure and enlarging gap? How to calculate non-renewable energy efficiency of China? How to identify the key factors of efficiency change? How to improve non-renewable energy efficiency effectively and ensure the harmonious and sustainable development among non-renewable energy, economy and environment? In view of above questions, this thesis carries out a series of researches.
First of all, this thesis analyzes the current situation of non-renewable energy consumption of China, using IP AT equation and LMDI method, and calculates the driving mechanism and affecting level of driving factors of non-renewable energy consumption pressure. The research verifies that the increase of consumption pressure derives from economic factors, while the decrease of that derives from inhibitory effect of consumption intensity. Therefore, the decrease of consumption pressure of non-renewable energy should start with consumption intensity namely improving non-renewable energy efficiency.
Secondly, based on Douglas production function and total factor productivity, this thesis constructs non-renewable energy efficiency model and index system and calculates efficiency respectively at the national level and provincial level. Then the interaction relationship among efficiency can be studied by impulsion response function model. The results confirm that the national level efficiency of non-renewable energy presents alternating fluctuation situation, with worse situation of economic benefit efficiency and environmental loading efficiency. The average efficiency of provincial level has been decreasing each year. The average level of economic benefit efficiency is low and below the effective frontier, similarly the average level of environmental loading efficiency shows a trend of fluctuating downward. After the impulse of time series and panel pulse response function, there is interactive relationship among each efficiency at the national level and provincial level with different impacting direction and intensity.
On this basis, this thesis makes a confirmatory analysis of fluctuation of efficiency at national level and difference of efficiency at provincial level. By means of unit root and cointegration test as well as convergence model, this thesis makes further research on the proportionality and convergence of efficiency. The results show that the efficiency at national level presents a fluctuating change situation with smaller range. The efficiency of30provinces exists significant differences, which means convergence degree has been enlarging compared with optimal efficiency value, meanwhile the speed which low-efficiency province surpass high-efficiency province is relatively slow.
Again, this thesis identifies key factors of efficiency change of non-renewable energy using multi-level grey perception evaluation model, and verifies the affecting direction and degree of the key factors at national and provincial level. The results confirm that optimization and upgrading of industrial structure as well as advancement of urbanization play an important role in improving non-renewable energy efficiency at national and provincial level. While the key factors namely improvement of non-renewable energy consumption structure and informationization level as well as R&D expenditure proportion and opening level, are typical bi-directional influencing factors, the specific effect of which depends on the researching object, environment, policy and geographic conditions.
Finally, from the perspective of network platform of efficiency promotion, symbionts and continuous ability construction of efficiency promotion, this thesis constructs technological innovation network platform, policy intervention network platform, behavior intend network platform and material exchange network platform, and coordinates management of national strategy, provincial planning, terminal utilization and public cognitive level so as to continue construction of efficiency promotion, in order to continuously improve non-renewable energy efficiency and reduce environmental pollution effect.
首先,对不可再生能源发展形势及压力进行分析,运用IPAT方程、LMDI分解法测算出中国不可再生能源消耗压力以及促成消耗压力逐年增大的驱动因素的作用机制与水平。研究证实了消耗压力的增加源于经济因素的驱动,消耗压力的减弱源于消耗强度的抑制性驱动作用,因此,减轻不可再生能源消耗压力必须从能源强度入手,即提高不可再生能源效率。
其次,基于道格拉斯生产函数和全要素生产率,构建不可再生能源效率测算模型和指标体系,分别以国家层面和省域层面作为研究对象,进行不可再生能源效率测算,并对效率之间的交互影响关系进行脉冲响应函数模型分析。研究证实了国家层面上不可再生能源效率总体呈现交替波动变化态势,经济收益效率与环境负荷效率水平整体普遍较低；省域层面上不可再生能源的平均效率水平是逐年下降的,平均经济收益效率水平较低且均处于有效前沿面下,平均环境负荷效率水平呈现波动下降趋势；经时间序列和面板脉冲响应函数冲击后,国家层面和省域层面上的不可再生能源效率值都存在交互影响关系,但作用方向和程度有所差别。
在此基础上,运用超效率DEA模型和方差分析法,对国家层面上不可再生能源效率的波动和省域层面上效率的差异进行验证性分析；借助单位根和协整检验、收敛模型,分别就国家层面上效率变动的均衡性和省域层面上效率差异的收敛性进行深入研究。研究证实了国家层面上不可再生能源效率值随着时间推移呈现波动变化趋势,但波动幅度较小；中国30个省市的不可再生能源效率值存在显著差异,与最优效率值的差异程度在不断扩大,效率较低省市向效率较高省市的赶超速度相对较慢。
然后,通过运用多层次灰色感知评价模型,识别出不可再生能源效率变动的关键影响因素,通过岭回归和面板模型回归分析,验证关键影响因素对国家层面和省域层面上能效水平的作用方向和程度。研究证实了产业结构优化升级、城市化进程速度的加快,在国家、省域层面上均有利于不可再生能源效率的改进：不可再生能源消费结构改善、信息化水平、研发经费支出比重以及对外开放程度等因素是典型的双向影响因素,具体作用效应视研究对象、环境、政策乃至区位条件的不同而定。
最后,从构建不可再生能源效率提升的网络平台、形成能效提升的共生体、持续进行效率提升的能力建设等方面着手,构建技术创新网络平台、政策干预网络平台、行为意愿网络平台和物质交换网络平台,从国家战略层面、省域规划层面、终端利用层面和公众认知层面进行统一协调,持续进行效率提升的能力建设,达到持续提高不可再生能源效率、降低环境污染影响的目的。
Energy is the most basic and important natural resources which back up the human survival and development. The countries all over the world ascend the importance of energy production and consumption to the national development. For China, GDP growth needs the support of fossil energy, namely high-intensity consumption of non-renewable energy. Especially from1980s, the constraint to economic development by non-renewable energy has been increasing prominent. On the one hand, from the impact of economic growth and energy intensity, the pressure of China's nonrenewable energy consumption has been increasing year by year. Meanwhile, the gap of supply and demand has been enlarging. In addition, due to the containment of obtaining overseas resources, China's non-renewable energy security crisis is becoming more and more serious. On the other hand, with the accelerating process of industrialization, the amount of pollutants emission caused by energy consumption especially coal has gone far beyond the world's average level. While fossil energy plays the irreplaceable-support role in China's industrialization process, which causes dilemma among non-renewable energy consumption, environmental impact and economic development. Additionally, in terminal application fields, the economic benefit from non-renewable energy input is lower than the world average level. At present, in the fast period of economic development, the efficient utilization of coal, oil and natural gas namely non-renewable energy ensures the sustainable development. Thus it can be seen, improving non-renewable energy consumption efficiency is an inevitable choice of China's economic development in the future. That is to say which are the driving factors of increasing pressure and enlarging gap? How to calculate non-renewable energy efficiency of China? How to identify the key factors of efficiency change? How to improve non-renewable energy efficiency effectively and ensure the harmonious and sustainable development among non-renewable energy, economy and environment? In view of above questions, this thesis carries out a series of researches.
First of all, this thesis analyzes the current situation of non-renewable energy consumption of China, using IP AT equation and LMDI method, and calculates the driving mechanism and affecting level of driving factors of non-renewable energy consumption pressure. The research verifies that the increase of consumption pressure derives from economic factors, while the decrease of that derives from inhibitory effect of consumption intensity. Therefore, the decrease of consumption pressure of non-renewable energy should start with consumption intensity namely improving non-renewable energy efficiency.
Secondly, based on Douglas production function and total factor productivity, this thesis constructs non-renewable energy efficiency model and index system and calculates efficiency respectively at the national level and provincial level. Then the interaction relationship among efficiency can be studied by impulsion response function model. The results confirm that the national level efficiency of non-renewable energy presents alternating fluctuation situation, with worse situation of economic benefit efficiency and environmental loading efficiency. The average efficiency of provincial level has been decreasing each year. The average level of economic benefit efficiency is low and below the effective frontier, similarly the average level of environmental loading efficiency shows a trend of fluctuating downward. After the impulse of time series and panel pulse response function, there is interactive relationship among each efficiency at the national level and provincial level with different impacting direction and intensity.
On this basis, this thesis makes a confirmatory analysis of fluctuation of efficiency at national level and difference of efficiency at provincial level. By means of unit root and cointegration test as well as convergence model, this thesis makes further research on the proportionality and convergence of efficiency. The results show that the efficiency at national level presents a fluctuating change situation with smaller range. The efficiency of30provinces exists significant differences, which means convergence degree has been enlarging compared with optimal efficiency value, meanwhile the speed which low-efficiency province surpass high-efficiency province is relatively slow.
Again, this thesis identifies key factors of efficiency change of non-renewable energy using multi-level grey perception evaluation model, and verifies the affecting direction and degree of the key factors at national and provincial level. The results confirm that optimization and upgrading of industrial structure as well as advancement of urbanization play an important role in improving non-renewable energy efficiency at national and provincial level. While the key factors namely improvement of non-renewable energy consumption structure and informationization level as well as R&D expenditure proportion and opening level, are typical bi-directional influencing factors, the specific effect of which depends on the researching object, environment, policy and geographic conditions.
Finally, from the perspective of network platform of efficiency promotion, symbionts and continuous ability construction of efficiency promotion, this thesis constructs technological innovation network platform, policy intervention network platform, behavior intend network platform and material exchange network platform, and coordinates management of national strategy, provincial planning, terminal utilization and public cognitive level so as to continue construction of efficiency promotion, in order to continuously improve non-renewable energy efficiency and reduce environmental pollution effect.
引文
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