中小板上市公司管理层过度自信对资本结构影响的研究
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摘要
在传统财务理论中假定在经济生活中人是完全理性的,有足够的决策能力来做出有益于自己的决策,该假设认为人们对每一项交易都会衡量其代价和利益,并且会选择对自己最有利的方案。但从二十世纪八十年代以来,行为财务理论日益兴起且逐日发展,对原有财务理论框架下的理性人假设和有效市场假说提出了强有力的挑战。在这方面,除了管理者过度自信与公司投资决策之间的关系外,管理者过度自信与公司债务方式融资之间的关系也逐步成为研究的重点。在理论方面的研究已经取得了初步的结论,但是相关的实证研究还存在着一些问题,主要就是因为管理者的过度自信这一变量很难有一个准确的衡量方法。国外关于这方面的研究已近做的比较多了,而国内相关的研究还比较少见。所以在中国这样一个由政府主导发展起来的新兴股票市场下,上市公司管理层是否存在过度自信特征?管理层的过度自信特征与上市公司资本结构决策之间存在着怎么样的关系呢?这些都值得学者们进一步研究。
在以上分析的基础上,本文以实证方法进行研究,收集了2006年到2009年度深圳交易所中小板上市公司的有关数据,得到面板数据样本,并利用Eviews6.0软件对数据进行统计分析,实证检验分析了管理层过度自信对公司资本结构和债务期限的影响,最终得出以下结论：
(1)公司的资本结构受到管理层过度自信的显著影响,管理层过度自信与公司资产负债率之间呈现显著的正相关关系,这说明如果公司的管理层具有过度自信特征则该公司会更多的采取债务方式融资。
(2)公司的债务期限受到管理层过度自信的显著影响,管理层过度自信与公司短期资产负债率之间存在显著的正相关关系,这说明如果公司的管理层具有过度自信特征则该公司更多的采用短期债务。
In the traditional finance theory, we assume that people are rational in the economic activity, we believed that people have sufficient capacity in the decision-making to benefit themselves. In the assumption, we assume that people will measure their costs and benefits, and then they will choose the best option for themselves. However, since the 1980th, the behavioral finance theory was developed, and it made a strong challenge to traditional finance theory. Many studies focus on the relationship between manager overconfidence and investment decisions, but recently they give more focus on the relationship between manager overconfidence and company's debt financing. In the theoretical studies they have made a preliminary conclusion, but there are some problems in the related empirical research. The mainly reason is that it is difficult to measure the manager over-confidence precisely. There are many studies abroad, but the domestic research is relatively rare. So in China, under the government-led developed stock markets background, do the listed company's management have overconfidence features? If they have, how the management overconfidence impact on the capital structure of listed companies? All these problems are worthy of further study.
Based on the above analysis, This paper use empirical research method, collected relevant data from 2006 to 2009 of the medium and small companies listed on the Shenzhen stock exchange in China. Then we use Eviews6.0 for statistical analysis. Empirical analysis examined how the managerial overconfidence impact on capital structure and debt maturity, and finally got the following conclusions:
(1) The company's capital structure is significantly impacted by the managerial overconfidence. Managerial overconfidence and the company's capital structure are positively correlated, with 10% level of significance, this indicates that companies with overconfident managers prefer debt financing.
(2) The company's debt maturity structure is significantly impacted by the managerial overconfidence. Managerial overconfidence and the company's debt maturity structure are positively correlated, with 10% level of significance, this indicates that companies with overconfident managers have more short-term debt financing.
在以上分析的基础上,本文以实证方法进行研究,收集了2006年到2009年度深圳交易所中小板上市公司的有关数据,得到面板数据样本,并利用Eviews6.0软件对数据进行统计分析,实证检验分析了管理层过度自信对公司资本结构和债务期限的影响,最终得出以下结论：
(1)公司的资本结构受到管理层过度自信的显著影响,管理层过度自信与公司资产负债率之间呈现显著的正相关关系,这说明如果公司的管理层具有过度自信特征则该公司会更多的采取债务方式融资。
(2)公司的债务期限受到管理层过度自信的显著影响,管理层过度自信与公司短期资产负债率之间存在显著的正相关关系,这说明如果公司的管理层具有过度自信特征则该公司更多的采用短期债务。
In the traditional finance theory, we assume that people are rational in the economic activity, we believed that people have sufficient capacity in the decision-making to benefit themselves. In the assumption, we assume that people will measure their costs and benefits, and then they will choose the best option for themselves. However, since the 1980th, the behavioral finance theory was developed, and it made a strong challenge to traditional finance theory. Many studies focus on the relationship between manager overconfidence and investment decisions, but recently they give more focus on the relationship between manager overconfidence and company's debt financing. In the theoretical studies they have made a preliminary conclusion, but there are some problems in the related empirical research. The mainly reason is that it is difficult to measure the manager over-confidence precisely. There are many studies abroad, but the domestic research is relatively rare. So in China, under the government-led developed stock markets background, do the listed company's management have overconfidence features? If they have, how the management overconfidence impact on the capital structure of listed companies? All these problems are worthy of further study.
Based on the above analysis, This paper use empirical research method, collected relevant data from 2006 to 2009 of the medium and small companies listed on the Shenzhen stock exchange in China. Then we use Eviews6.0 for statistical analysis. Empirical analysis examined how the managerial overconfidence impact on capital structure and debt maturity, and finally got the following conclusions:
(1) The company's capital structure is significantly impacted by the managerial overconfidence. Managerial overconfidence and the company's capital structure are positively correlated, with 10% level of significance, this indicates that companies with overconfident managers prefer debt financing.
(2) The company's debt maturity structure is significantly impacted by the managerial overconfidence. Managerial overconfidence and the company's debt maturity structure are positively correlated, with 10% level of significance, this indicates that companies with overconfident managers have more short-term debt financing.
引文
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[2]Baxter.N.D, Cragg,J.G. Corporate choice among long-term financing instruments[J]. Review Of Economics and Statistics,1970,52:225-235
[3]Bradley Michael, George A Jarrell, E Han Kim. On the existence of an optimal capital structure:theory and evidence [J]. Journal of Finance,1984(39):857-880
[4]Brander, J.A, Lewis, T.R. Oligopoly and financial structure:the limited liability effect[J]. American Economic Review,1986,76:956-970
[5]Booth, Laurence, et al. Capital structure in developing countries [J]. Journal of Finance,2001,56:87-130
[6]Bevan, Alan A. Danbolt, Jo. Captial Structure and determinants in the UK-a decompositional analysis[J]. Applied Financial Economics,2002,12:159-170
[7]Chaplinsky Susan, Greg Niehaus. Do inside ownership and leverage share common determ inants? [J]. Quarterly Journal of Business and Economics,1993(32):51-65
[8]Chang Chun. Cap ital structure as optimal contract [J]. North A-merican Journal of Econom ics and Finance,1999(10):363-385.
[9]David F Scott. Evidence on The Importance of Financial Structure[J]. Financial Management,1972,45-50
[10]De Angelo H, R Masulis. Optimal capital structure in corporate and personal taxation [J]. Journal of Financial Economics,1980(8):3-29
[11]Eli Schwartz, J Richard Aronson. Some Surrogate Evidence in Support of the Concept of Opitmal Finacial Structure. Journal of Finance[J],1967,22:10-18
[12]Heinkel,R. A theory of capital structure relevance under imperfect information[J]. Journal of Financial Economics,1982,37:1141-1150
[13]Harris,M, Raviv,A. Corporate control contests and capital structure[J]. Journal of Financial Economics,1988,20:55-86
[14]Harris M, Raviv A. The theory of capital structure [J]. Journal of Finance,1991, 46:297-355
[15]Israel, Ronen. Capital structure and the market for corporate control:The defensive role of debt financing[J]. Journal of Finance,1991,1391-1409
[16]Jensen, M.C., Meckling,W.H. Theory of the firm:managerial behavior, agency coats and ownership structure[J]. Journal of Finance Economics,1976,3:305-360
[17]J Markham Collins, William Sekely. The Relationship of Headquarters Country and Industry Classification to Financial Structure[J]. Financial Management,1983,45-51
[18]John S, Hughes, Jennifer L.Kao, Arijit Mukherji, Oligopoly. Financial Structure and Resolution of Uncertainty [J]. Journal of Economics & Management Strategy,1998, 7(1):67-88
[19]Kester, W. Carl. Capital and ownership Structure:A Comparison of United States and Japanese Manufacturing Corporations [J]. Financial Management,1986,15:5-16
[20]Lee Remmers, et al. Industry and Size as Debt Ratio Determinants in Manufacturing Internationally [J]. Financial Management,1974,24-32
[21]Long Michael, Ileen Maltiz. The investment-financing nexus:some empirical evidence [J]. Midland Corporate Finance Journal,1985(3):53-59
[22]Modigliani.F, Miller. M. The cost of capital, corporation finance, and the theory of investment[J]. American Economic Review,1958,53:267-297
[23]Modigliani.F, Miller. M. Corporate income taxes and the cost of capital:a correction[J]. American Economic Review,1963,53:433-443
[24]Miller. M. Debt and taxes[J]. Journal of Finance,1977,32:261-276
[25]Methodological Approach[J]. Journal of Finance.ⅩⅩⅪⅤ3,1979,631-644
[26]Marsh P. The choice between equity and debt:An empirical study [J]. Journal of Finance,1982,7:121-144
[27]Myers,S.C, Majluf.N.S Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have[J]. Journal of Financial Economics,1984,13:187-221
[28]Maksimovic, V, Capital structure in repeated oligopolies[J]. Rand Journal of Economics,1988,19:389-407
[29]Ross, R. The determinants of financial structure:The incentive-signaling approach[J]. Bell Journal of financial research,1977,5:249-259
[30]Raj Aggarwal. Capital Structure Differences Among Large Asian Companies [J]. ASEAN Economic Bulletin,1990,7:39-53
[31]Stulz,R.Managerial discretion and optimal financing policies[J]. Journal of Financial Economics,1990,26:3-27
[32]Showalter Dean. Oligopoly and Financial Structure[J]:Comment. American Economic Review,1995,85(3):647-653
[33]Schuhmacher. Renegotiation of Financial Contracts in a Cournot-Duopoly[J]. Business Review,2002,53:60-60
[34]Taub, A.J. Determinant of the firms capital structure[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics,1975,57:410-416
[35]Titman. The effete of capital structure on a firm's liquidation decision[J]. Journal of Financial Economics,1984,13:137-151
[36]Titman. The Debt-Equity Choice[J]. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,2001,36:1-24
[37]Vihang R Errunza. Determinants of financial structure in the Central American Common Market[J]. Financial Management,1979,72-77
[38]Wald John K. How firm characteristics affect cap ital structure:an international comparison [J]. Journal of Financial Research,1999(22):161 187
[39]陈晓红,王陟昀,韩文强.我国中小上市公司资本结构与成长性实证研究[A].湖南省经济学学会年会暨科学发展观与湖南经济协调发展研讨会论文集[C],2008
[40]陈小悦,李晨.上海股市的收益与资本结构关系实证研究[J].北京大学学报(哲学社会科学版),1995,01：2-3
[41]冯根福,吴林江,刘世彦.我国上市公司资本结构形成的影响因素分析[J].经济学家.2000.05：12-13
[42]郭鹏飞,孙培源.资本结构的行业特征：基于中国上市公司的实证研究[J].经济研究,2003,5：37-39
[43]洪锡颐,沈艺峰.我国上市公式资本结构影响因素的实证分析[J].厦门大学学报,2000,61-63
[44]黄莲琴,傅元略.管理者过度自信与公司融资策略的选择[J].福建大学学报,2010.6：3-4
[45]赫什.舍夫林著.郑晓蕾译.行为公司金融-创造价值的决策[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2007,115-118
[46]李远惠,郝宇欣.我国上市公司资本结构影响因素的实证分析[J].投资研究,2007,7：43-45
[47]李雪云.我国上市公司资本结构的行业特征分析[D].暨南大学,2006
[48]李义超.中国上市公司资本结构研究[D].浙江大学,2001
[49]刘端,陈健,陈收.市场时机对融资工具选择的影响[J].系统工程,2005,8：53-55
[50]陆正飞,辛宇.上市公司资本结构主要影响因素之实证研究[J].会计研究,1998,4： 26-29
[51]吕长江,韩慧博.上市公司资本结构特点的实证分析[J].南开管理评论,2001,5：52-55
[52]刘胜军,张甜甜.我国上市公司资本结构现状及优化研究[J].商业经济,2008,18：41-43
[53]马小英.我国上市公司资本结构现状及其优化分析[J].北方经济,2007,02：4-5
[54]彭亚辉.我国上市公司资本结构影响因素研究[D].湘潭大学,2006
[55]沈维成.资本结构、股权结构与公司绩效[J].安徽工业大学学报(社会科学版)2008,4：3-4
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