我国企业财务风险的识别与度量
详细信息    本馆镜像全文|  推荐本文 |  |   获取CNKI官网全文
摘要
企业财务状况的好坏直接影响企业的生存和发展,进而影响我国的经济发展和社会稳定。对企业财务风险管理进行系统深入的研究,具有极为重要的意义。财务风险识别是企业财务风险管理的第一步,财务风险识别工作进行的是否全面、深刻直接影响整个财务风险管理工作的最终结果;财务风险度量是企业财务风险管理的核心内容。由于我国关于财务风险管理理论的研究还处于起步阶段,因此研究我国企业财务风险的识别和度量方法具有非常重要的理论价值和现实意义。
     本文在总结财务风险各种识别方法的基础上,针对我国企业财务风险的特点,指出我国企业各种财务风险的识别方法;运用实证研究的方法,选择微观经济杠杆这一大家熟悉的财务风险度量工具,通过因子模型法对企业综合效益进行评价,以评价结果最好的组中的企业杠杆系数的范围作为该行业杠杆系数的合理值域范围,从而实现对我国企业财务风险的度量;针对理论研究和实证分析结果,提出关于我国企业财务风险管理的对策。
     相对于以往研究,本文在对我国企业的财务风险进行度量时,采用了因子模型法和杠杆分析法相结合的方法,充分考虑了反映企业规模的资产总额等因素,以期使本文的研究结论和对策对我国的企业经营者、企业投资者和国家而言都有一定的借鉴意义。
The financial situation of enterprises has a direct impact on business survival and development, thereby affecting China's economic development and social stability. So it is of great significance to research enterprise financial risk management in-depth. Financial risk identification is the first step of enterprise financial risk management, which has a direct impact on the final outcome of the entire financial risk management. Financial risk measurement is the core of enterprise financial risk management. Because the study on financial risk management of our country is still at the starting stage, the research on the method of enterprise financial risk identification and measurement is of very important theoretical and practical significance.
     On the basis of summing up various identification methods of financial risk, the dissertation concludes identification methods of various financial risks in our enterprises in view of enterprise financial risk characteristics. Through empirical method, the dissertation measures the financial risk by micro-economic levers that we are familiar with. Firstly,
     The dissertation evaluates enterprise comprehensive benefits through component model. Secondly, choosing enterprises leverage coefficient in the best evaluating group as a lever coefficient of reasonable range in this industry. The dissertation gives solutions against enterprise financial risk management on the basis of theoretical research and empirical results.
     Compared with the previous study, the dissertation uses both component model and leverage analysis method to measure domestic enterprise financial risk. It is expected that the conclusion of the research has significance for both our country and enterprise investors.
引文
[1] Ross, Westerfield, Jordan. Fundamentals off Corporate Finance[M]. McGraw-Hill: Lrwin, 1995.56
    [2] James C Van Horne, John M. Wachowicz Jr.Fundamental of Financial Management[M]. McGraw-Hill: Eugene, 2001.88
    [3] 怯来法.现代公司理财与财务风险研究[D].北京:国家图书馆博士论文库,1995
    [4] 蒋琪发.财务风险的特征及其控制途径[J].江西财经大学学报,2000,3:21
    [5] 罗放华.谈财务风险的成因及防范措施[J].财会月刊,2005,4:16-17
    [6] 李慧,梁毅.企业风险及其度量方法探析[J].山西经济管理干部学院学报,2006,9:14
    [7] 向德伟.论财务风险[J].会计研究,1994,4:22
    [8] 房玲.企业财务风险管理刍议[J].财会研究,2000,6:11
    [9] 兰艳泽.企业的财务风险及其管理[J].交通财会,2001,10:23
    [10] 王桂英,王婷.试论企业内部财务风险及其制度防范原则[J].河南财政税务高等专科学校学报,2002,2:14-17
    [11] 黄锦亮,白帆.论财务风险管理的基本框架[J].财会研究,2004,6:34
    [12] 杨技,胡秋月.财务风险的管理和防范[J].甘肃农业,2006,5:188
    [13] 朱伟.论企业财务风险管理[D].北京:财政部财政科学研究所,2002
    [14] 许国栋,李心丹.风险管理理论综述及其发展[J].北方经贸,2001,9:40-41
    [15] 罗乃展.多层前馈神经网络在企业财务风险预警中的应用[D].北京:北京理工大学,2002
    [16] Doherty.N.A.. Integrated Risk Management-techniques and strategies for reducing risk[M]. McGraw-hill: New York, 2000.236
    [17] Andrew.W.Lo.. The Three P's of Total Risk Management[J]. Financial Analysts Journal, 1999, 1: 546
    [18] 郭仲伟.风险分析与决策[M].北京:机械工业出版社,1986.1-5
    [19] 刘思录,汤谷良.论财务风险管理[J].北京商学院学报,1989,5:32
    [20] 向德伟.论财务风险[J].会计研究,1994,4:36
    [21] 侯红兵.树立财务风险观念,健全财务风险[J].财经论丛,1995,5:28-30
    [22] 刘巨钦.论中国企业集团化经营与扩张中的风险防范与管理[J].湘潭大学学报,2000,2:56
    [23] 刘健海.健全内部控制制度,防范企业财务风险[J].事业财会,2001,7:24-26
    [24] 李世强.试论现代企业内部财务风险的控制与防范[J].理论学习与探索,2002,1:70-71
    [25] 许玉红.认识公司财务风险,建立风险控制机制[J].湖南商学院学报,2003,10:91-93
    [26] 黄锦亮,白帆.论财务风险管理[J].财会月刊,2004,10:26
    [27] 梁惠兰.企业财务风险识别与防范[J].北方经济,2006,6:51-52
    [28] Jyoti P.Gupta, Alain Chevalier and Shantanu Dutta. Multicriteria model for risk evaluation for venture capital finns in an emerging market context[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2003, 4: 356
    [29] Herbert Gintis. The financial structure of the enterprise[J]. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2005, 5: 311-322
    [30] Alnoor Bhimani, Mthuli Ncube. Investment decision-making of Enterprisement[J]. Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, 2006, 8:390-408
    [31] 刘华英,刘晓英.议企业财务风险的识别与防范[J].中国地质矿产经济,2002,8:38-39
    [32] 陶权,谢科范.财务风险的识别与规避分析[J].经济论坛,2004,23:21
    [33] 陈文俊.企业财务风险:识别、评估与处理[J].财经理论与实践,2005,3:16
    [34] 布赖恩科伊尔.货币风险管理[M].北京:中信出版社,2002.35-56
    [35] Konno,H., Yamazaki,H. Mean-Absolute Deviation Portfolio Optimization Model and its Application to Tokyo Stock Market[J]. Management Science, 1991, 37:519-531
    [36] Ogryczak, W.,Ruszcznski,A. Rom Stomchastic Dominance to Mean-Risk Models:Semide-Viations as Risk Mearsures[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 1999, 116: 33-50
    [37] Alexander, G., Baptista,A. Economic Implications of Using a Mean-VaR Model for Portfolio Selection: A Comparison with Mean-Variance Analysis[DB/OL]. www.gloriamundi.org, 2000.12.18
    [38] Sentana, E. Mean-Variance Portfolio Allocation with a Value at Risk Constraint[DB/OL]. www.gloriamundi.org, 2001.06.26
    [39] Rockafellar R.T., Uryasev S.. Optimization of Conditional Value-at-Risk[J]. Journal of Risk, 2002, 2:325
    [40] Cabedo Sember J.David, Moya Clemente Ismael. Estimating Oil Price "Value at Risk" Using the Historical Simulation Approach[DB/OL]. www.gloriamundi.org, 2003.05.12
    [41] John M. Mulvey, Hafize G. Erkan. Applying CVaR for decentralized risk management of financial companies[J]. Journal of Banking & Finance, 2006, 2:627-644
    [42] 宁宇之.企业财务风险的衡量及其规避[J].中国审计,2000,4:13
    [43] 崔毅.经营杠杆与财务杠杆原理及应用前提条件分析[J1.华南理工大学学报(自然科学版),2001,12:14-17
    [44] 崔毅,杨涛.上市家电企业的微观经济杠杆应用分析[J].山西大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2002,8:36-40
    [45] 华南理工大学课题组.财务信息资源开发和利用[J].中国会计电算化,2003,3:7-9
    [46] 张彦.微观经济杠杆合理值域的确定及其实证分析[J].华南理工大学学报(社会科学版),2004,4:39-42
    [47] 王雨飞,王宇平.基于遗传算法的CVaR模型[J].中国管理科学,2006,10:23
    [48] 宋炳颖,王建南.财务风险管理[M].北京:中华工商联合出版社,2001.89
    [49] 桂永评.投资风险[M].北京:立信会计出版社,1996.17
    [50] 张宇.对现金流量表的结构分析[J].财会月刊,2003,5:22
    [51] 何进日.财务管理[M].成都:西南财经大学出版社,2002.56-73
    [52] Neil D Pearson, Charles Smithson. VAR-The state of play[J]. Review of Financial Economics, 2002, 12: 175-189
    [53] David E Bell. Risk, Return, and Utility[J]. Management Science, 1995, 1:23-30
    [54] 何广平,马国顺.关于风险度量问题的研究[J].宝鸡文理学院学报(自然科学版),1999,6:20-22
    [55] 陆伟国.风险度量新指标:风险率(FL)简介[J].财会通讯,2004,12:33
    [56] 蔡韬.杠杆系数、标准差和标准差系数衡量风险的辨析[J].昆明师范高等专科学校学报,2003,4:95-98
    [57] 肖作平,王涌,王彩霞等.企业风险计量方法的研究[J].科技与管理,2000,1:26-28
    [58] 彭孝松,杨义群.贝塔系数是风险的正确度量吗[J].商业研究,2004,2:7-9
    [59] 魏岳篙,林美艳,王峰.金融市场风险度量及实证研究[J].淮北煤师院学报,2003,12:11-15
    [60] Beder, Tanyasyblo. VaR:seductive but dangerous[J]. Financial Analyst Journal, 1995, 5: 12-24
    [61] R T Rockallar, S Uryasev. Optimization of Conditional Value at Risk[J]. Journal of Risk, 2000, 2:21-41
    [62] 岳瑞锋,李振东,杨晓萍.风险管理的CVaR方法及其简化模型[J].河北省科学院学报,2003,8:134-137
    [63] 温素彬.财务状况综合评价的因子模型法[J].淮海工学院学报,2001,6:67-74
    [64] Alexander Basilevsky. Statistical factor analysis and related methods: theory and applications[M]. J Wiley Publishing Company: New York, 1994. 263-304
    [65] Alvin C Rencher. Method of multivariate analysis[M]. J Wiley Publishing Company: New York, 1995.134-179

© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号

地址:北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编:100083

电话:办公室:(+86 10)66554848;文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新:66554700