一个关于环境库兹涅茨曲线的静态模型
摘要
在全球经济飞速发展的今天,物质生活水平的不断进步使得人们对日益恶化的环境问题越来越关注。为什么在一些新兴工业化国家的城市(如曼谷、上海和墨西哥城等),现在其空气污染比20-30年前更为严重;相反地,在纽约、伦敦和东京等发达国家的城市,现在其空气比20-30年前更清洁了?为什么世界上最贫穷的国家和最富有的国家都拥有比较清洁的环境,而中等收入国家的环境污染最为严重?20世纪90年代,环境库兹涅茨假说的出现无疑为这一系列问题提供了可供参考的答案。有证据显示,一些国家的污染与国民收入之间的关系呈现倒U型,即污染先是随着国民收入的增加而增加,之后又随着国民收入的增加而减少。这种关系被经济学家称为“环境库兹涅茨曲线”。
本文通过一个简单的静态模型,论证了导致环境库兹涅茨曲线出现的主要原因在于减排技术。这一模型包含消费、投资及环保投入,分别在单人经济和多人经济中进行了论证。通过模型发现,单人经济中的结论在多人经济中并不是帕累托最优的,还有改善的余地。这也说明了在对待环境问题上,不可以采取放任自流的态度,计划调节比市场调节要更加有效。
Today, rapid development in the global economy, the continuous advancement of material standard of living makes it increasingly more and more concerned about the deteriorating environment. Why, in some cities in newly industrialized countries (such as Bangkok, Shanghai and Mexico City, etc.), now the air pollution is more serious than that in 20-30 years ago; the contrary, in New York, London and Tokyo and other cities in developed countries, and now its more than 20-30 years ago, the air cleaner? Why is the world's poorest countries and the richest countries have relatively clean environment, and middle-income countries, the most serious environmental pollution? 90 20th century, the emergence of environmental Kuznets hypothesis for this series of questions will undoubtedly provide answers for reference. There is evidence that in some countries the relationship between pollution and national income inverted U-type, that pollution first increases with income, and later as national income increases. This relationship is what economists call "environmental Kuznets curve."
In this paper, a simple static model, demonstrates the result of environmental Kuznets curves is largely due to emission reduction. This model includes consumption, investment and environmental investment, respectively, than in the single economy and the economy were demonstrated. The model found that the conclusions of a single person in the economy than the economy is not Pareto optimal, there is room for improvement. This also shows that in the treatment of environmental issues, can not take a laissez faire attitude, planning regulation to be more effective than market regulation.
本文通过一个简单的静态模型,论证了导致环境库兹涅茨曲线出现的主要原因在于减排技术。这一模型包含消费、投资及环保投入,分别在单人经济和多人经济中进行了论证。通过模型发现,单人经济中的结论在多人经济中并不是帕累托最优的,还有改善的余地。这也说明了在对待环境问题上,不可以采取放任自流的态度,计划调节比市场调节要更加有效。
Today, rapid development in the global economy, the continuous advancement of material standard of living makes it increasingly more and more concerned about the deteriorating environment. Why, in some cities in newly industrialized countries (such as Bangkok, Shanghai and Mexico City, etc.), now the air pollution is more serious than that in 20-30 years ago; the contrary, in New York, London and Tokyo and other cities in developed countries, and now its more than 20-30 years ago, the air cleaner? Why is the world's poorest countries and the richest countries have relatively clean environment, and middle-income countries, the most serious environmental pollution? 90 20th century, the emergence of environmental Kuznets hypothesis for this series of questions will undoubtedly provide answers for reference. There is evidence that in some countries the relationship between pollution and national income inverted U-type, that pollution first increases with income, and later as national income increases. This relationship is what economists call "environmental Kuznets curve."
In this paper, a simple static model, demonstrates the result of environmental Kuznets curves is largely due to emission reduction. This model includes consumption, investment and environmental investment, respectively, than in the single economy and the economy were demonstrated. The model found that the conclusions of a single person in the economy than the economy is not Pareto optimal, there is room for improvement. This also shows that in the treatment of environmental issues, can not take a laissez faire attitude, planning regulation to be more effective than market regulation.
引文
[1] Kuznets S. Economic growth and income inequality[J]. American Economic Review, 1955,45:1-28.
[2] Grossman G, Krueger A. Economic growth and the environment quarterly[J]. Journal of Economics, 1995,110(2):353-377.
[3] Carson Richard T, Yongil Jeon, et al. The relationship between air pollution emissions and income: U.S.data[J]. Environment and Development Economics, 1997,2(4):433-450.
[4] Wang Hua , David Wheeler. Endogenous enforcement and effectiveness of China's pollution levy system[R]. World Bank Development Research Group Working Paper, 2000, 2336.
[5] Vincent J. Testing for environmental Kuznets curves within a developing country[J]. Environment and Developmental Economics, 1997,2(4):417-433.
[6] De Bruyn S M,et al. Economic growth and emissions: reconsidering the empirical basis of environmental Kuznets curves[J]. Ecological Economics,1998,25(2):161-175
[7] Hannes Egli. Are Cross-Country studies of the environmental kuznets curve misleading? New evidence from time series data for Germany[R]. FEEM Working Paper No25, 2002.
[8] Kathleen M. Growth and environment in Canada: An empirical analysis[J]. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2001,51:197-216.
[9] York, Richard,et al. The Ecological Footprint Intensity of National Economies,[J] Journal of Industrial Ecology, Volume 8, Number 4, 2005, pp. 139‐154.
[10] Kaufmann R K, et al. The determinants of atmospheric SO2 concentrations: reconsidering the environmental kuznets curve[J]. Ecological Economics,1998, 25(2):209-220.
[11] Bruyn S. de Van den Bergh, Opschoor J. Economic growth and emissions: Reconsidering the empirical basis of environmental kuznets curves[J]. Ecological Economics, 1998,25:161-175.
[12] Stokey, Nancy L. Are There Limits to Growth?[J] International Economic Review, 1998.39(1) 1-31.
[13] Beckerman, W. Economic growth and the environment: Whose growth? Whose environment?[R] World Development, 1992. 20 481-496.
[14] Stern, D. M. Common. Economic Growth and Environmental Degradation: The Environmental Kuznets Curve and Sustainable Development.[R]World Development, 1996. 24(7)1151-1160.
[15] Levin,et al. Unit root tests in panel data, asymptotic and finite-sample properties[J]. Journal of Econometrices, 2002,108:1-24.
[16] Maddala, Wu G S. A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test[J]. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1999,61:631-652.
[17] Im K S, Peasaran M H, Shin Y. Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 2003,115:53-74.
[18] James Andreoni, Arik Levinson.The Simple Analytics of The Environmental Kuznets Curve [C],NBER working paper,NO.6739,1998.
[19] Choi I. Unit root tests for panel data[J]. Journal of International Money and Finance, 2001,20:249-272.
[20] List, J.A. and C.A. Gallet.. The environmental Kurnets curve: does one size fit all?[J].Ecological Economics, 1999,31: 409–423.
[21] Pedroni P. Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors[J]. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,1999,(61): 653-678.
[22] Jones, Charles I., R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth,[J] Journal of Political Economy, 1995, 103 (4), 759–784.
[23] Harris R D, Tzavalias F E. Inference for unit roots in dynamic panels where the timedimension is fixed[J]. Journal of Econometrices, 1999,91:201-226.
[24] Paudel, K.P., et al. An Empirical Test of Environmental Kuznets Curve for Water Pollution [J] . Environmental and Resource Economics, 2005, 31:325–348.
[25] Joy, Bill, Why theWorld Doesn’t Need Us[J], Wired Magazine, 2000, 8 (4).
[26] Bostrom, Nick, Existential Risks[J], Journal of Evolution and Technology, 2002, 9.
[27] Harbaugh, W.T., A. Levison and D.M. Wilson. Reexamining the Empirical Evidence for an Environmental Kuznets Curve[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics. 2002 84: 541–551.
[28] Carson, Richard T., The Environmental Kuznets Curve: Seeking Empirical Regularity and Theoretical Structure[J], Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Volume 4, Issue 1, Winter 2010, pp. 3‐23.
[29] Deacon, R.T. and C.S. Norman, Does the environmental Kuznets curve describe how individual countries behave?[J] Land Economics, Volume 82, 2006,pp. 291‐315.
[30]原毅军,刘小琴,杨锋.辽宁环境质量与经济增长关系的实证研究[J].科学技术与工程,2006,8:2509-2512.
[31]王维国,夏艳清.辽宁省经济增长与环境污染水平关系研究[J].社会科学辑刊,2007(1):103-107.
[32]陆虹.中国环境问题与经济发展的关系分析[J].财经研究,2000,(10):50-59
[33]凌亢,王浣尘,刘涛.城市经济发展与环境污染关系的统计研究[J].统计研究,2001,10:46-52.
[34]张晓.中国环境政策的总体评价[J].中国社会科学1999(3):88-99.
[35]马树才、李国柱.中国经济增长与环境污染的Kuznets曲线[J].统计研究,2006(08).
[36]包群,彭水军.经济增长与环境污染:基于面板数据的联立方程估计[J].世界经济,2006,11:48-58.
[2] Grossman G, Krueger A. Economic growth and the environment quarterly[J]. Journal of Economics, 1995,110(2):353-377.
[3] Carson Richard T, Yongil Jeon, et al. The relationship between air pollution emissions and income: U.S.data[J]. Environment and Development Economics, 1997,2(4):433-450.
[4] Wang Hua , David Wheeler. Endogenous enforcement and effectiveness of China's pollution levy system[R]. World Bank Development Research Group Working Paper, 2000, 2336.
[5] Vincent J. Testing for environmental Kuznets curves within a developing country[J]. Environment and Developmental Economics, 1997,2(4):417-433.
[6] De Bruyn S M,et al. Economic growth and emissions: reconsidering the empirical basis of environmental Kuznets curves[J]. Ecological Economics,1998,25(2):161-175
[7] Hannes Egli. Are Cross-Country studies of the environmental kuznets curve misleading? New evidence from time series data for Germany[R]. FEEM Working Paper No25, 2002.
[8] Kathleen M. Growth and environment in Canada: An empirical analysis[J]. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2001,51:197-216.
[9] York, Richard,et al. The Ecological Footprint Intensity of National Economies,[J] Journal of Industrial Ecology, Volume 8, Number 4, 2005, pp. 139‐154.
[10] Kaufmann R K, et al. The determinants of atmospheric SO2 concentrations: reconsidering the environmental kuznets curve[J]. Ecological Economics,1998, 25(2):209-220.
[11] Bruyn S. de Van den Bergh, Opschoor J. Economic growth and emissions: Reconsidering the empirical basis of environmental kuznets curves[J]. Ecological Economics, 1998,25:161-175.
[12] Stokey, Nancy L. Are There Limits to Growth?[J] International Economic Review, 1998.39(1) 1-31.
[13] Beckerman, W. Economic growth and the environment: Whose growth? Whose environment?[R] World Development, 1992. 20 481-496.
[14] Stern, D. M. Common. Economic Growth and Environmental Degradation: The Environmental Kuznets Curve and Sustainable Development.[R]World Development, 1996. 24(7)1151-1160.
[15] Levin,et al. Unit root tests in panel data, asymptotic and finite-sample properties[J]. Journal of Econometrices, 2002,108:1-24.
[16] Maddala, Wu G S. A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test[J]. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1999,61:631-652.
[17] Im K S, Peasaran M H, Shin Y. Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 2003,115:53-74.
[18] James Andreoni, Arik Levinson.The Simple Analytics of The Environmental Kuznets Curve [C],NBER working paper,NO.6739,1998.
[19] Choi I. Unit root tests for panel data[J]. Journal of International Money and Finance, 2001,20:249-272.
[20] List, J.A. and C.A. Gallet.. The environmental Kurnets curve: does one size fit all?[J].Ecological Economics, 1999,31: 409–423.
[21] Pedroni P. Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors[J]. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,1999,(61): 653-678.
[22] Jones, Charles I., R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth,[J] Journal of Political Economy, 1995, 103 (4), 759–784.
[23] Harris R D, Tzavalias F E. Inference for unit roots in dynamic panels where the timedimension is fixed[J]. Journal of Econometrices, 1999,91:201-226.
[24] Paudel, K.P., et al. An Empirical Test of Environmental Kuznets Curve for Water Pollution [J] . Environmental and Resource Economics, 2005, 31:325–348.
[25] Joy, Bill, Why theWorld Doesn’t Need Us[J], Wired Magazine, 2000, 8 (4).
[26] Bostrom, Nick, Existential Risks[J], Journal of Evolution and Technology, 2002, 9.
[27] Harbaugh, W.T., A. Levison and D.M. Wilson. Reexamining the Empirical Evidence for an Environmental Kuznets Curve[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics. 2002 84: 541–551.
[28] Carson, Richard T., The Environmental Kuznets Curve: Seeking Empirical Regularity and Theoretical Structure[J], Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Volume 4, Issue 1, Winter 2010, pp. 3‐23.
[29] Deacon, R.T. and C.S. Norman, Does the environmental Kuznets curve describe how individual countries behave?[J] Land Economics, Volume 82, 2006,pp. 291‐315.
[30]原毅军,刘小琴,杨锋.辽宁环境质量与经济增长关系的实证研究[J].科学技术与工程,2006,8:2509-2512.
[31]王维国,夏艳清.辽宁省经济增长与环境污染水平关系研究[J].社会科学辑刊,2007(1):103-107.
[32]陆虹.中国环境问题与经济发展的关系分析[J].财经研究,2000,(10):50-59
[33]凌亢,王浣尘,刘涛.城市经济发展与环境污染关系的统计研究[J].统计研究,2001,10:46-52.
[34]张晓.中国环境政策的总体评价[J].中国社会科学1999(3):88-99.
[35]马树才、李国柱.中国经济增长与环境污染的Kuznets曲线[J].统计研究,2006(08).
[36]包群,彭水军.经济增长与环境污染:基于面板数据的联立方程估计[J].世界经济,2006,11:48-58.