中国区域污染特征与影响因素分析
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摘要
改革开放以来,我国经济高速增长的同时带来了一系列发展难题,如资源过度开发、能耗过高、污染排放剧增等,生态环境压力增大。基于此,本文拟对中国区域污染的特征及其影响因素进行全面系统的实证研究,以期为环境污染的空间治理提供宏观控制思路。在回顾与评述区域污染与区域经济增长关系国内外研究成果的基础上,采用定性与定量相结合的实证分析方法,综合利用现代经济计量分析中的重心模型分析、VAR系统分析、面板数据分析以及联立方程模型分析等估计方法,分析我国区域污染形态及特征,探讨区域污染主要影响因素,考察区域污染与区域经济增长内在关系,并对环境库兹涅茨曲线假说进行验证。文章的主要结论如下:第一,我国区域污染特征体现在:单位面积经济产出越高,能源消耗越多的区域,其单位面积环境负荷越重,污染控制能力也相对较强;第二,经济增长和贸易开放度的提高对区域污染排放的影响有正有负;人口规模对区域污染排放影响不显著;科技水平和能源利用率的提高能有效降低区域污染排放;政府环保管制未能有效控制区域污染排放;产业结构不合理导致区域污染排放加剧。第三,面板数据分析结果指出大部分污染物与人均收入的关系支持环境库兹涅茨假说,但并不意味着经济发展到一定水平,区域污染问题就会得到全面解决;现阶段,我国区域污染对区域经济增长的反馈机制较弱,给我们敲醒了环保警钟。指出转变经济增长方式,走经济增长与环境保护协调发展的路子是我国今后的必然选择。
China’s economy has made a rapid development since Reformation and Opening, however, there are still some problems needed to be solved, such as the over-exploitation of resources, high-consumption of energy, fast-increase of pollution emission, etc, which putting great stress on eco-environment. Based on the problems mentioned above, this paper intends to make a comprehensive and systematic empirical study on regional pollution of China. By analyzing its characteristics and affecting factors, we provide some macro-control means for environmental pollution management. Based on reviewing and commenting the home and abroad research papers about the relationship between regional pollution and regional economic growth,we adopt the empirical methods that combine the qualitative and quantitative analysis to analyze the characteristics of China’s regional pollution, trying to find out the main regional pollution affecting factors. Also, by means of gravity model analysis, VAR system analysis, panel data analysis and simultaneous equations model analysis, we examine the interrelationship between regional pollution and regional economic growth, verifying the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. The main conclusions are as follows: Firstly, the regional pollution’s features present: the higher economic output per unit area, the more energy consumption, the more severe environmental load, the stronger pollution control. Secondly, economic growth and trade liberalization have both positive and negative effects on regional pollution; the effect of population size is not significant; technological progress and energy efficiency are the efficient ways to discourage pollution; government’s efforts are failed to control the environmental pollution; irrational industrial structure would intensify the pollution discharge. Thirdly, panel data estimated results point out that most pollutants support the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis, but does not mean that regional pollution problems would be totally settled when the regional economic development reached a certain stage; regional pollution feedback mechanism is weak in present stage. Transforming the mode of economic growth, coordinating environmental protection with economic growth, are the certain choices of China.
China’s economy has made a rapid development since Reformation and Opening, however, there are still some problems needed to be solved, such as the over-exploitation of resources, high-consumption of energy, fast-increase of pollution emission, etc, which putting great stress on eco-environment. Based on the problems mentioned above, this paper intends to make a comprehensive and systematic empirical study on regional pollution of China. By analyzing its characteristics and affecting factors, we provide some macro-control means for environmental pollution management. Based on reviewing and commenting the home and abroad research papers about the relationship between regional pollution and regional economic growth,we adopt the empirical methods that combine the qualitative and quantitative analysis to analyze the characteristics of China’s regional pollution, trying to find out the main regional pollution affecting factors. Also, by means of gravity model analysis, VAR system analysis, panel data analysis and simultaneous equations model analysis, we examine the interrelationship between regional pollution and regional economic growth, verifying the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. The main conclusions are as follows: Firstly, the regional pollution’s features present: the higher economic output per unit area, the more energy consumption, the more severe environmental load, the stronger pollution control. Secondly, economic growth and trade liberalization have both positive and negative effects on regional pollution; the effect of population size is not significant; technological progress and energy efficiency are the efficient ways to discourage pollution; government’s efforts are failed to control the environmental pollution; irrational industrial structure would intensify the pollution discharge. Thirdly, panel data estimated results point out that most pollutants support the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis, but does not mean that regional pollution problems would be totally settled when the regional economic development reached a certain stage; regional pollution feedback mechanism is weak in present stage. Transforming the mode of economic growth, coordinating environmental protection with economic growth, are the certain choices of China.
引文
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