我国经济增长区域性差异下碳排放权期权定价及优化研究
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摘要
温室气体排放所产生的温室效应是全世界必须面对的重要环境问题之一,而二氧化碳作为温室气体的主要组成部分,其过度排放受到了人们的共同关注。国际上的高度管制和一系列限制其排放的措施体现了现今各国节能减排的压力。目前我国作为非附件一国家并不需要承担减排义务,但作为经济高速增长的发展中国家和碳排放大国,在京都议定书的第二阶段必然会受到国际各界的施压。因此,为使我国顺利适应后京都时代,保持与国际市场接轨,将市场机制引入到我国碳排放权交易中,结合我国区域发展不平衡现状,将区域差异融入到政策制度的制定中,完善我国碳排放权定价,建立适应我国发展的健全的碳排放权交易机制。
首先,将我国划分为四个区域,分别为东部地区、中部地区、西部地区和东北三省,采用泰尔指数分析我国经济增长和碳排放的区域差异,运用面板数据计量经济学方法分析各区域经济增长和碳排放之间的相关关系,结果显示,我国各区域碳排放与经济增长之间存在协整关系,各区域中碳排放量均为经济增长的单向格兰杰原因。在此基础上,根据环境库兹涅茨假说建立各区域环境库兹涅茨模型。其次,分析经济增长区域差异下的我国碳排放权定价,并将期权机制引入到交易中,提高定价合理性和市场活跃度。在一级市场中运用B-S期权定价模型分析和计算各区域排放权初始分配价格,并详细分析了二级市场价格形成机理。最后,构建我国基于经济增长区域差异的碳排放权交易机制,提出碳排放权区域差异总量限制、初始分配、处罚机制和可存储可交易机制等符合我国发展现状的机制内容,根据该机制的相关约束条件和碳排放权初始分配期权定价建立全局优化模型,分别计算和分析政府对各区域采取相同的减排标准和差异化减排标准对各区域和全国带来的影响,并在分析模型结果基础上提出我国应在实现减排目标的同时保持适度经济增长,促进区域平衡发展,加强政府监管等政策建议。
The greenhouse effect caused by the greenhouse gas emissions is one of the most important environmental issues faced by the world. As the major component of greenhouse gases, the carbon dioxide’s excessive emissions caused common concern from the people. High degree of international control and a range of measures to limit carbon dioxide emissions reflect the current pressure from energy-saving and emission reduction across all the countries. As the non-Annex I country, China has no need to undertake the obligations of emission reduction at present. However, it will be under enormous pressure in the second phase of the Kyoto Protocol; because with the economics growing rapidly, its volume of carbon emissions will become more and more. To adapt the post-Kyoto era and keep up with the international market, the market mechanism should be introduced into the carbon emissions trading of China. Combined with the current state of unbalanced regional development, taking the regional differences in to the policy’making consideration, and further perfect the mechanism of carbon emissions pricing, and builds a sound carbon emissions trading mechanism for our country.
This thesis divides china into four areas, including eastern, central, western and northeastern regions, and makes some research on the economics growth and carbon emissions of China. First, the regional difference is analyzed by Theil index; then the relationship between them is studied by the econometric method of panel data. The research finds that cointegration relationship exists between the regional economic growth and carbon emissions, and the regional carbon emissions are one-way Granger causes of economic growth. On this basis, the paper establishes the regional environmental Kuznets model under the environmental Kuznets hypothesis. Then, the carbon emissions pricing under regional differences is analyzed, and the introduction of options trading mechanism helps improve the pricing rationality and market activity. By B-S options pricing model, the paper calculates the initial allocation price of carbon emissions in different regions, and get a detailed analysis of the price formation mechanism in the secondary market. Finally, this paper builds the carbon emissions trading mechanism based on regional differences of economics growth, and presents the content of the mechanism such as the total carbon emissions restrictions, the initial distribution, the punishment measures and the storage trading mechanism. According to the constraints of the mechanism and the initial distribution options pricing of carbon emissions, a global optimization model is established, and the effect by the different emission standards made by the government is analyzed. The results of the model show that while achieving the emissions reduction targets, China should maintain a moderate economic growth rate, promote the balanced regional development, and strengthen the government’s regulation.
首先,将我国划分为四个区域,分别为东部地区、中部地区、西部地区和东北三省,采用泰尔指数分析我国经济增长和碳排放的区域差异,运用面板数据计量经济学方法分析各区域经济增长和碳排放之间的相关关系,结果显示,我国各区域碳排放与经济增长之间存在协整关系,各区域中碳排放量均为经济增长的单向格兰杰原因。在此基础上,根据环境库兹涅茨假说建立各区域环境库兹涅茨模型。其次,分析经济增长区域差异下的我国碳排放权定价,并将期权机制引入到交易中,提高定价合理性和市场活跃度。在一级市场中运用B-S期权定价模型分析和计算各区域排放权初始分配价格,并详细分析了二级市场价格形成机理。最后,构建我国基于经济增长区域差异的碳排放权交易机制,提出碳排放权区域差异总量限制、初始分配、处罚机制和可存储可交易机制等符合我国发展现状的机制内容,根据该机制的相关约束条件和碳排放权初始分配期权定价建立全局优化模型,分别计算和分析政府对各区域采取相同的减排标准和差异化减排标准对各区域和全国带来的影响,并在分析模型结果基础上提出我国应在实现减排目标的同时保持适度经济增长,促进区域平衡发展,加强政府监管等政策建议。
The greenhouse effect caused by the greenhouse gas emissions is one of the most important environmental issues faced by the world. As the major component of greenhouse gases, the carbon dioxide’s excessive emissions caused common concern from the people. High degree of international control and a range of measures to limit carbon dioxide emissions reflect the current pressure from energy-saving and emission reduction across all the countries. As the non-Annex I country, China has no need to undertake the obligations of emission reduction at present. However, it will be under enormous pressure in the second phase of the Kyoto Protocol; because with the economics growing rapidly, its volume of carbon emissions will become more and more. To adapt the post-Kyoto era and keep up with the international market, the market mechanism should be introduced into the carbon emissions trading of China. Combined with the current state of unbalanced regional development, taking the regional differences in to the policy’making consideration, and further perfect the mechanism of carbon emissions pricing, and builds a sound carbon emissions trading mechanism for our country.
This thesis divides china into four areas, including eastern, central, western and northeastern regions, and makes some research on the economics growth and carbon emissions of China. First, the regional difference is analyzed by Theil index; then the relationship between them is studied by the econometric method of panel data. The research finds that cointegration relationship exists between the regional economic growth and carbon emissions, and the regional carbon emissions are one-way Granger causes of economic growth. On this basis, the paper establishes the regional environmental Kuznets model under the environmental Kuznets hypothesis. Then, the carbon emissions pricing under regional differences is analyzed, and the introduction of options trading mechanism helps improve the pricing rationality and market activity. By B-S options pricing model, the paper calculates the initial allocation price of carbon emissions in different regions, and get a detailed analysis of the price formation mechanism in the secondary market. Finally, this paper builds the carbon emissions trading mechanism based on regional differences of economics growth, and presents the content of the mechanism such as the total carbon emissions restrictions, the initial distribution, the punishment measures and the storage trading mechanism. According to the constraints of the mechanism and the initial distribution options pricing of carbon emissions, a global optimization model is established, and the effect by the different emission standards made by the government is analyzed. The results of the model show that while achieving the emissions reduction targets, China should maintain a moderate economic growth rate, promote the balanced regional development, and strengthen the government’s regulation.
引文
[1] Merton R.C. Applications of option pricing theory:twenty-five years later[J]. American Economic Review,1998,88(3):323-349
[2]张艳林,孙永广,刘德顺.碳减排量定价理论研究[J].系统工程理论与实践, 2002(4):105-108
[3] Carlen B. Market Power in International Carbon Emissions Trading:A Laboratory Test[J]. The Energy Journal,2003,24(3):1-26
[4] Evans M. Emissions trading in transition economies:the link between international and domestic policy[J]. Energy Policy,2003,31(9):879-886
[5] Springer U. The market for tradable GHG permits under the Kyoto Protocol:a survey of model studies[J]. Energy Economics,2003,25(5):527-551
[6]施圣炜,黄桐城.期权机制——排污权交易的一种新尝试[J].生产力研究,2005(3):60-62
[7] Copeland BR,Taylor MS. Free trade and global warming:a trade theory view of the Kyoto protocol[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2005,49(2):205-234
[8] Smale R,Hartley M,Hepburn C,Ward J,Grubb M. The impact of CO2 emissions trading on firm profits and market prices[J]. Climate Policy,2006, 6(1):31-48
[9] Karki S,Mann MD,Salehfar H. Substitution and price effects of carbon tax on CO2 emissions reduction from distributed energy sources[C]. 2006 Power Systems Conference Advanced Metering. Protection , Control , Communication , and Distributed Resources,2006:234-241
[10]于天飞.碳排放权交易的市场研究[D].南京林业大学博士学位论文,2007: 9-10
[11] Edmonds J,Clarke L,Lurz J,Wise M. Stabilizing CO2 concentrations with incomplete international cooperation. Climate Policy,2008,8(4):355-376
[12] Hyndman, Rick. The Cost of Carbon Get used to uncertainty, and allow government,not traders,to set the price of carbon[J]. Alternatives Journal,2009, 35(1):28-32
[13]冷罗生.构建中国碳排放权交易机制的法律思考[C],2009年全国环境资源法学研讨会(2009.8.3-6.昆明)论文集,2009
[14]洪涓,陈静.我国碳交易市场价格影响因素分析.价格理论与实践,2009(12): 65-66
[15] Hyndman , Rick. The Cost of Carbon Get used to uncertainty, and allow government, not traders,to set the price of carbon[J]. Alternatives Journal,2009, 35(1):28-32
[16]吴洁,曲如晓.论全球碳市场机制的完善及中国的对策选择[J].亚太经济, 2010(4):3-8
[17]岳杰,魏东,王璟珉.期权理论视角下的企业内部碳交易机制定价策略研究[J].山东大学学报,2010(2):1-8
[18] Phelan L,Henderson-Sellers A,Taplin R. Climate change,carbon prices and insurance systems[J]. International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology,2010,17(2):95-108
[19] Eyre N. Policing carbon:design and enforcement options for personal carbon trading[J]. Climate Policy,2010,10(4):432-446
[20] Grossman GM,Krueger AB. Environmental impacts of North American free trade agreement [M]. The US-Mexico Free Trade Agreement. MIT Press,Cambridge. 1993:13-56
[21] Schmalesee R,Stoker TM,Judson RA. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions: 1950-2050 [J]. Review of Economics and Statistics,1998,80(1):15-27
[22] Galeotti M. A Study on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Developing Countries[J]. energy policy,1999,27(10):565-573
[23] Friedl B,Getzner M. Determinates of CO2 emissions in a small open economy [J]. Ecological Economics,2003(159):133-148.
[24]徐玉高,郭元,吴宗鑫.经济发展、碳排放和经济演化[J].环境科学进展, 1999(2):54-63
[25]王中英,王礼茂,李怡欣等.中国经济增长对碳排放的影响分析[J].安全与环境学报,2006(5):12-19
[26]王琛.我国碳排放与经济增长的相关性分析[J].管理观察,2009(9):149-150
[27]邹秀萍,陈劭锋,宁淼等.中国省级区域碳排放影响因素的实证分析[J].生态经济,2009(3):34-37
[28]刘继森,颜雯晶.广东省经济增长与碳排放的关系研究[J].广东外语外贸大学学报,2010 (2):19-21
[29]许广月,宋德勇.我国出口贸易、经济增长与碳排放关系的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2010(1):74-79
[30]陈茜,苏利阳,汝醒君.发达国家不同发展阶段碳排放与经济增长的因果关系分析[J].生态经济,2010(4):52-55
[31]牛叔文,丁永霞,李怡欣等.能源消耗、经济增长和碳排放之间的关联分析——基于亚太八国面板数据的实证研究[J].中国软科学,2010(5):12-19
[32] Fan Y,Liu LC,Wu G,Wei YM. Analyzing impact factors of CO2 emissions using the STIRPAT model [J]. Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2006,26(4): 377-395
[33] Ramanathan R. A multi-factor efficiency perspective to the relationships among world GDP,energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2006,73(5):483-494
[34] Soytas U,Sari R,Ewing BT. Energy consumption, income,and carbon emissions in the United States [J]. Ecological Economic,2007,62(3-4):482-489
[35]胡初枝,黄贤金.区域碳排放及影响因素差异比较研究——以江苏省为例[C].第二届全国循环经济与生态工业学术研讨会暨中国生态经济学会工业生态经济与技术专业委员会2007年年会论文集,2007
[36]查冬兰,周德群.地区能源效率与二氧化碳排放的差异性——基于Kaya因素分解[J].系统工程,2007 (11):65-71
[37]胡初枝,黄贤金,钟太洋等.中国碳排放特征及其动态演进分析[J].中国人口、资源与环境,2008, 18(3):38-42
[38]王俊松,贺灿飞.能源消费、经济增长与中国CO2排放量变化——基于LMDI方法的分解分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2010,19(1):18-22
[39] Samuelson,P.A. The Pure Theory of Public Expenditure[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics,1954(36):387-389
[40]杨云彦.人口、资源与环境经济学[M].中国经济出版社. 2008:286-289
[41]徐国泉,刘则渊,姜照华.中国碳排放的因素分解模型及实证分析:1995-2004 [J].中国人口、资源与环境,2006,16(6):158-161
[42]田东明.工业废气交易“钱”景大好[J].中国商贸,2009(3):66-67
[43] Nord pool-EUA Forwards 2010-Charts[EB/OL]. http://www. co2-handel.de. html, 2010-04-25
[44]王宇雯.实物期权视角下排污权定价策略研究——基于环境成本的初始分配分析框架[J].价格理论与实践,2007(10):44-45
[45]陈玮英. 2009中国能源十大事件[N].中国企业报,2010-1-26(6)
[2]张艳林,孙永广,刘德顺.碳减排量定价理论研究[J].系统工程理论与实践, 2002(4):105-108
[3] Carlen B. Market Power in International Carbon Emissions Trading:A Laboratory Test[J]. The Energy Journal,2003,24(3):1-26
[4] Evans M. Emissions trading in transition economies:the link between international and domestic policy[J]. Energy Policy,2003,31(9):879-886
[5] Springer U. The market for tradable GHG permits under the Kyoto Protocol:a survey of model studies[J]. Energy Economics,2003,25(5):527-551
[6]施圣炜,黄桐城.期权机制——排污权交易的一种新尝试[J].生产力研究,2005(3):60-62
[7] Copeland BR,Taylor MS. Free trade and global warming:a trade theory view of the Kyoto protocol[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2005,49(2):205-234
[8] Smale R,Hartley M,Hepburn C,Ward J,Grubb M. The impact of CO2 emissions trading on firm profits and market prices[J]. Climate Policy,2006, 6(1):31-48
[9] Karki S,Mann MD,Salehfar H. Substitution and price effects of carbon tax on CO2 emissions reduction from distributed energy sources[C]. 2006 Power Systems Conference Advanced Metering. Protection , Control , Communication , and Distributed Resources,2006:234-241
[10]于天飞.碳排放权交易的市场研究[D].南京林业大学博士学位论文,2007: 9-10
[11] Edmonds J,Clarke L,Lurz J,Wise M. Stabilizing CO2 concentrations with incomplete international cooperation. Climate Policy,2008,8(4):355-376
[12] Hyndman, Rick. The Cost of Carbon Get used to uncertainty, and allow government,not traders,to set the price of carbon[J]. Alternatives Journal,2009, 35(1):28-32
[13]冷罗生.构建中国碳排放权交易机制的法律思考[C],2009年全国环境资源法学研讨会(2009.8.3-6.昆明)论文集,2009
[14]洪涓,陈静.我国碳交易市场价格影响因素分析.价格理论与实践,2009(12): 65-66
[15] Hyndman , Rick. The Cost of Carbon Get used to uncertainty, and allow government, not traders,to set the price of carbon[J]. Alternatives Journal,2009, 35(1):28-32
[16]吴洁,曲如晓.论全球碳市场机制的完善及中国的对策选择[J].亚太经济, 2010(4):3-8
[17]岳杰,魏东,王璟珉.期权理论视角下的企业内部碳交易机制定价策略研究[J].山东大学学报,2010(2):1-8
[18] Phelan L,Henderson-Sellers A,Taplin R. Climate change,carbon prices and insurance systems[J]. International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology,2010,17(2):95-108
[19] Eyre N. Policing carbon:design and enforcement options for personal carbon trading[J]. Climate Policy,2010,10(4):432-446
[20] Grossman GM,Krueger AB. Environmental impacts of North American free trade agreement [M]. The US-Mexico Free Trade Agreement. MIT Press,Cambridge. 1993:13-56
[21] Schmalesee R,Stoker TM,Judson RA. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions: 1950-2050 [J]. Review of Economics and Statistics,1998,80(1):15-27
[22] Galeotti M. A Study on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Developing Countries[J]. energy policy,1999,27(10):565-573
[23] Friedl B,Getzner M. Determinates of CO2 emissions in a small open economy [J]. Ecological Economics,2003(159):133-148.
[24]徐玉高,郭元,吴宗鑫.经济发展、碳排放和经济演化[J].环境科学进展, 1999(2):54-63
[25]王中英,王礼茂,李怡欣等.中国经济增长对碳排放的影响分析[J].安全与环境学报,2006(5):12-19
[26]王琛.我国碳排放与经济增长的相关性分析[J].管理观察,2009(9):149-150
[27]邹秀萍,陈劭锋,宁淼等.中国省级区域碳排放影响因素的实证分析[J].生态经济,2009(3):34-37
[28]刘继森,颜雯晶.广东省经济增长与碳排放的关系研究[J].广东外语外贸大学学报,2010 (2):19-21
[29]许广月,宋德勇.我国出口贸易、经济增长与碳排放关系的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2010(1):74-79
[30]陈茜,苏利阳,汝醒君.发达国家不同发展阶段碳排放与经济增长的因果关系分析[J].生态经济,2010(4):52-55
[31]牛叔文,丁永霞,李怡欣等.能源消耗、经济增长和碳排放之间的关联分析——基于亚太八国面板数据的实证研究[J].中国软科学,2010(5):12-19
[32] Fan Y,Liu LC,Wu G,Wei YM. Analyzing impact factors of CO2 emissions using the STIRPAT model [J]. Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2006,26(4): 377-395
[33] Ramanathan R. A multi-factor efficiency perspective to the relationships among world GDP,energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2006,73(5):483-494
[34] Soytas U,Sari R,Ewing BT. Energy consumption, income,and carbon emissions in the United States [J]. Ecological Economic,2007,62(3-4):482-489
[35]胡初枝,黄贤金.区域碳排放及影响因素差异比较研究——以江苏省为例[C].第二届全国循环经济与生态工业学术研讨会暨中国生态经济学会工业生态经济与技术专业委员会2007年年会论文集,2007
[36]查冬兰,周德群.地区能源效率与二氧化碳排放的差异性——基于Kaya因素分解[J].系统工程,2007 (11):65-71
[37]胡初枝,黄贤金,钟太洋等.中国碳排放特征及其动态演进分析[J].中国人口、资源与环境,2008, 18(3):38-42
[38]王俊松,贺灿飞.能源消费、经济增长与中国CO2排放量变化——基于LMDI方法的分解分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2010,19(1):18-22
[39] Samuelson,P.A. The Pure Theory of Public Expenditure[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics,1954(36):387-389
[40]杨云彦.人口、资源与环境经济学[M].中国经济出版社. 2008:286-289
[41]徐国泉,刘则渊,姜照华.中国碳排放的因素分解模型及实证分析:1995-2004 [J].中国人口、资源与环境,2006,16(6):158-161
[42]田东明.工业废气交易“钱”景大好[J].中国商贸,2009(3):66-67
[43] Nord pool-EUA Forwards 2010-Charts[EB/OL]. http://www. co2-handel.de. html, 2010-04-25
[44]王宇雯.实物期权视角下排污权定价策略研究——基于环境成本的初始分配分析框架[J].价格理论与实践,2007(10):44-45
[45]陈玮英. 2009中国能源十大事件[N].中国企业报,2010-1-26(6)