山东城市化发展战略对大气环境影响研究
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摘要
城市化发展对推动世界人类文明进步已起到了至关重要的作用。目前,世界范围内的城市化发展还将处于一个不断持续增长的发展态势,中国及山东省也正处于城市化发展的快速发展期。但城市化发展是把双刃剑,一方面,促进了社会、经济的快速发展；另一方面,城市化发展会消耗大量的资源,对城市生态环境带来不利影响,直接威胁着人类生存系统的可持续发展。其中城市化发展带来的城市大气污染问题,已对城市居民的生活环境带来了威胁。城市化发展是国家和地区战略决策下的社会经济发展行为,如何减缓或预防因战略缺陷、失效或失误对城市大气环境造成的不良影响,必须考虑用战略环境影响评价的方法进行系统的设计和考虑。中国要发展,发展就必须要有战略,发展战略还必须能够可持续,衡量发展战略是否可持续,战略环境评价就是标尺之一。研究城市化战略对大气环境的影响不仅符合温家宝总理签署的国务院令(第559号),即对编制的城市建设发展规划应进行环境影响评价,而且也符合山东经济要走可持续发展的战略构想。
论文主要采用战略环境影响评价的基本思路和方法,探究城市化发展和大气环境质量两者之间的内在关系及未来规划年城市化发展战略对大气的环境影响。即按照环境影响设别、环境现状评价、环境影响预测和环境影响评价的模式进行。论文是对大气环境单因素影响评价,环境影响识别部分未作分析。通过回顾性评价,了解城市化发展与大气环境质量的互动关系,在分析工业化发展现阶段的基础上进行城市化与工业废气排放量耦合分析；通过预测(城市化预测、能源预测、主要大气污染因子排放量预测)和承载力分析,明确城市化的快速发展是否能满足大气环境承载力的评价要求。最后构建城市化对大气环境影响的评价指标体系及综合评价模型。论文提出了三个方面的创新点,即提出了城市化与大气环境的新型耦合曲线应遵循的三个原则,构建了基于PSR平衡记分卡城市化发展对大气环境影响的评价指标体系；在城市环境熵模型的基础上,提出了城市大气环境熵模型,并对城市环境熵模型进行了修正；提出了能源需求预测的优化组合模型。具体研究内容如下：
在城市化发展对大气环境影响的回顾性评价方面,分别采用定性分析法、城市大气环境熵模型和模糊数学综合评判法,对山东省17城市近十年来的城市大气环境质量进行回顾性评价,研究山东城市化发展与大气环境质量变化的互动发展关系。研究结果表明：随着山东省城市化进程的加快,大气环境质量有逐步改善的趋势,两者表现出一定的正相关性。通过城市大气环境熵对大气环境影响的回顾性评价,发现各大气污染因子的熵值变化情况和对应的定性分析结果完全一致。城市大气环境熵结果分析也表明,随城市化进程的加快,大气环境质量得到了改善,两者整体上表现出一定的正相关性。城市大气环境熵模型不仅解决了定性分析方法不能解决的多因子环境指标大气环境质量综合评价问题,而且还从熵值绝对值大小的角度进一步分析城市化发展对大气环境质量的影响程度。
在城市化——工业化——大气环境的互动关系方面,分别采用钱纳里模式、库兹涅茨模式、赛尔奎因和钱纳里模式及霍夫曼系数法研究山东省工业化发展现状,发现山东省己进入工业化中期的后期阶段,正逐步向工业化后期迈进。利用城市化与工业化的耦合机制及协调性进行分析,以明确两者间的互动关系。山东省城市化与工业化的耦合程度已经进入颉颃时期,耦合度存在明显的时间差异,但协调度总体上呈上升的发展态势。当工业化与城市化处于颉颃时期时,城市化进入加速发展期,此阶段由于城市化发展需要大量的资金、资源和人口转移为支撑,必会对生态环境带来一定的冲击。通过山东城市化发展与大气环境交互耦合机制及规律性研究,构建城市化与大气环境耦合方程,其耦合曲线是一条“双指数”曲线,整体上遵循先恶化后改善的发展趋势。针对城市化与大气环境耦合曲线,提出新型耦合曲线应遵循的三个原则,即扁平化原则、提前原则和速降原则。根据治理成本和大气环境恶化程度两个环境评估指标,提出了二元四次矩阵模型和相应的对策组合模型,即低治理成本低危害型,采用扁平化+提前原则；高治理成本低危害型,采用扁平化原则；高治理成本高危害型,采用扁平化+提前原则；低治理成本高危害型,采用速降原则的四种对策组合矩阵。
山东城市化与工业废气排放量耦合实证研究表明,耦合曲线既不是“双指数”曲线,也不是2次方程,而是4次方程。曲线表明,随山东省城市化进程的加快,大气质量趋向好转,目前两者处于磨合阶段。工业二氧化硫、工业烟尘、工业粉尘排放量与城市化各自耦合曲线和工业废气的耦合曲线相似,他们的互动关系也都进入了磨合阶段。但前者起伏较大,而后两者的起伏相对较小。针对对策组合矩阵模型,对工业二氧化硫排放量提出了采取扁平+提前的处理原则；对工业烟尘和粉尘排放量采取速降的处理原则。
在城市化发展——能源需求——大气污染物排放量预测研究方面,分别采取时间序列法、灰色预测法及联合国法对山东省未来规划年城市化率进行预测,提出了山东省未来规划年城市化率高中低三种情景方案。采用节约指数模型分析近十年山东能源及二氧化硫节约指数演变情况表明,山东省节能水平低于于全国平均水平,而二氧化硫节约指数却逐年下降,好于全国平均水平。山东省新能源发展总体呈上升趋势,但与世界平均水平相比仍存在很大差距。采用情景分析法(普通情景)和LEAP模型对未来规划年能源需求进行了预测。结果发现,能源消费年增长率、能源消费弹性系数和能源利用强度都较之2008年有了很大的提高,节能取得了一定的效果,但山东经济发展依赖能源消耗的事实依然没有改变。采用环境负荷法对未来规划年能源需求进行了预测,并将预测结果(理想情景)和对应的普通情景进行比较,发现普通情景预测的能源消费量不是保证GDP在相同增长速度下的最优结果,而且差距很大。将普通情景和理想情景进行优化组合,提出了各方案下的优化情景。经计算得出的优化情景能源需求量都远小于普通情景的能源需求量,但相比相同年份下的理想情景,能源消费量尚有较大的差距。因此,山东省在短期内还难以改变能源消费不经济的事实。
利用山东省未来规划年能源需求的预测结果,采用有关数学模型对未来规划年的主要大气污染物排放量进行了预测。最后利用A-P值法,对山东省SO2大气环境承载力进行了分析,研究表明各规划年二氧化硫排放量都小于最大允许排放量。说明随着山东省城市化发展战略的实施,二氧化硫排放量未超出大气环境容量,大气环境承载能力足以支撑山东省城市化发展战略的顺利实施。
在基于PSR平衡记分卡构建山东城市化发展对大气环境影响评价指标体系及综合评价模型研究方面,首先,在理论上论证了基于PSR的平衡计分卡去构建环境影响指标体系的可行性。平衡计分卡和PSR模型都具有系统性、因果性和可持续发展的共性特点。平衡记分卡还具有环境指标体系设计的两个关键特点,即平衡性和动态性。如果将平衡计分卡和PSR模型两者的优势结合起来,建立基于PSR的平衡计分卡去构建环境影响指标体系应该可行。按照平衡计分卡四个维度,将顾客要素指标放在顶层,构建了城市化发展对大气环境影响的指标体系。其中一级指标4个,二级指标7个,三级指标65个。围绕指标体系,分别构建了城市化大气环境的安全度评价模型、城市化大气环境的协调度评价模型和城市化与大气环境的可持续发展评价模型。
最后,结合山东城市化发展实际,得出了城市化发展对大气环境影响的相关结论,提出了大气环境保护的相关建议与对策。
Urbanization development has played a significant role in promoting the whole human beings'civilization process. At present, urbanization development all over the world still keeps an increasing trend. China and Shandong province are both in an accelerating urbanization development period. Urbanization process promotes the fast development of society and economy; on the other hand, urbanization consumes huge resources and brings negative impact on city eco-environment and then put much threat on the sustainable development of our surviving system directly. The problem of urban air pollution caused by urbanization development had brought a serious threat to the urban environment. The urbanization development is an act of social economy development of country and region strategic policy. In order to slow down or prevent the negative effect on the urban air environment caused by the drawback, invalidation or failure of the strategic policy, we must think of using the Strategic Environmental Assessment method to design the system and estimate it. China needs development, while development needs strategy. Except the developing strategy, the sustainability is also needed. The Strategic Environmental Assessment is one of the measurements to make sure the development is sustainable. Studying the urbanization strategy influence on the air environment not only correspond to the Decree of the State Council(NO.559) signed by Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, that is correspond to urban construction and development plan should undertake Environmental Impact Assessment, but also correspond to the strategy plan that Shandong economy must develops sustainably.
The thesis mainly takes the Environmental Impact Assessment methods to study the inner relationship between the urbanization development and atmosphere quality and the urbanization development impact on the atmosphere quality in the future planning year. That is on the basis of Environmental Impact Identification, Environmental Actuality Assessment, Environmental Impact Prediction and Environmental Impact Assessment model. On the consideration of that this thesis is based on the single-factor assessment of atmospheric environment impact, and there is no analysis of Environmental Impact Identification. Through the retrospective evaluation, the interaction relationship between the urbanization development and atmosphere quality was analyzed. Furthermore, the coupling analysis of the urbanization and the emissions of the industry waste gas were examined based on the analysis of the contemporary industrialization level. Through analyzing forecast (urbanization forecast, energy forecast, emissions of major air pollution factors forecast) and bearing capacity, the fast-speed urbanization rate and the requirement of the bearing capacity of atmosphere is examined. Lastly, the system of evaluation and comprehensive evaluation model of the urbanization impact on the air environment was biult. The three main innovation points of this essay are raised, that are three principles that the new coupling curve of the urbanization and air environment should obey; the evaluation system of urbanization impact on the atmosphere in Shandong based on the PSR balanced scorecard is built; on the basis of the entropy model of urban environment, the entropy model of the urban air environment is built and modified; optimized combination model of the energy demand forecast is raised.The main contents are the following:
On the aspect of the retrospective evaluate the urbanization impact on the air environment, I retrospectively analyzed the air environment impact of urbanization in 17 cities in Shandong province by qualitative analysis, the entropy model of the urban air environment and the fuzzy mathematics comprehensive judgment approaches is carried out. The interactive relationship between urbanization development and air quality change in Shandong is also analyzed. The research results show that:along with the accelerating of urbanization rate, the atmosphere shows a trend of becoming better and there is a positive correlation between them. Through retrospectively evaluating the urbanization impact on the air environment, the entropy change of pollution factors was exactly the same with the result of the qualitative analysis. The result of the urban atmosphere entropy shows that the cities' atmosphere quality improved with the accelerating urbanization rate, and they show a positive correlation. The model of the urban atmosphere entropy not only solved the comprehensive evaluation of all indicators of the atmosphere quality which can not solved by the qualitative analysis method, but also analyzed the urbanization process impact on the atmosphere quality by analyzing the absolute entropy value.
On the aspect of interaction relationship between the urbanization, industrialization and atmospheric environment, Chenery respectively mode, Kuznets mode, Syrquin and Chenery mode and method of Huffman coefficient was applied in Shandong province to present industrialization development research. The result shows that Shandong has entered the stage of late middle industrialization and the industrialization is gradually to later stage. The urbanization and industrialization of coupling mechanism analysis and coordination is used in order to make clear the interactive relationship between them. The urbanization and the industrialization coupling degree have entered the antagonistic period. There are obvious differences in the time of coupling, but shows a overall coordination after the ascendant trend stage. When the industrialization and urbanization is in antagonistic period, urbanization development accelerates and a lot of money and resources is necessary and then bring a certain impact to the ecological environment. Through urbanization and atmospheric environment interactive coupling mechanism and the regularity study in Shandong, the coupling equation curve is a "double exponential curve" generally after the deterioration of the improved following trends. For urbanization and atmospheric environment, puts forward the new coupling coupling curve should follow the three principles of the curve, i.e. the flattening principle, bring forward principle and speed lose principle. According to the management cost and atmospheric environmental degradation degree evaluation index, four matrix model and dual model corresponding countermeasures was put forward. low manage cost and low harm type control using flat+ advance principle, high manage cost and low harm type using control flatting principle, high manage cost and high harm type control using flat+ advance principle, Low manage cost and high damage type control using drop principle.
Urbanization and industrial emissions coupling empirical studies in Shandong show that neither coupling "double exponential curve", nor 2 times curve equation, but four equations. The curve shows with the pace of urbanization in Shandong province, atmospheric quality is getting better. Industrial SO2, industrial soot, dust emissions and urbanization, industrial waste has their own respective coupling curve; their relationship is in the break-in stage. But the first one fluctuates a lot; the latter two was much more stable. In combination of matrix model, countermeasures, flat+ treatment principle in advance, are put forward for industrial SO2 emissions, Fast drop principle is used for soot and dust emissions.
In the urbanized development—energy supply requirement—air pollutant emission load forecast research aspect, the Time Series method, Grey forecast law and Uncitral Model law are applied to forecast the future planning year's urbanization rate of Shandong Province, with the low, middle and high three scenarios are projected. Analyzing the saving index Shandong's energy and sulfur dioxide in the recent ten years with saving index model indicates that Shandong Province's energy eficiency is lower than the national average level, but the sulfur dioxide index which is better than the national average level is decreasing year by year. New energy development in Shandong Province is increasing, but compared with the world average level there is still a long way to go. The energy demand is predicted using scenario analysis (general situation) and the LEAP model. The results showed that annual growth rate of energy consumption, elasticity of energy consumption and energy intensity has been greatly improved compared to 2008; energy saving has some achievements but the fact that economic development depends on energy consumption has not changed. Environmental load method was used in the forecast for energy demand (ideal scenario) of future planning year. To compare forecast results of the ideal scenario and the common scenarios, it is found common scenarios cannot guarantee energy consumption to be the optimal result when GDP under the same growth rate, the gap is getting large. Combine common scenario and the ideal scenario would optimize the programs, and the optimal scenario is the best situation. After calculation, nergy demand of the optimal scenarios is much smaller than normal energy demand scenarios. But compared to the ideal scenario energy consumption, there are still large gaps. Therefore, in the short term, Shandong Province is difficult to change the fact that energy consumption is not efficient.
Using the energy demand forecasting result in the future planning year in Shandong province, the related mathematical model is used to carry on the forecast of the main air pollutant emissions. Finally, the A-P method is applied to analyze the SO2 bearing capacity in Shandong province. The research had indicated that in each planning year SO2 emissions was smaller than the biggest emission permissions. It shows that along with the urbanization developmental strategy's implementation in Shandong province, the SO2 emissions have not surpassed the atmospheric environment capacity. Atmospheric environment bearing capacity can support the urbanization developmental strategy in Shandong Province.
In terms of researches to construct Shandong urbanized development effect on Atmospheric Environment Impact Assessment based on PSR balanced scorecard and Comprehensive evaluation model, this thesis discussed the feasibility of using PSR balanced scorecard to construct environment impact indicator system firstly. Balanced scorecard and PSR model has the same character of system, causality and sustainability. Balanced scorecard also has two key characters of environment indicator system design, that is, balance and dynamic. If we combine the advantage of balanced scorecard and PSR model, it is feasible to construct environment impact indicator system using scorecard based on PSR. According to the four dimensions of balanced scorecard, we put the customer factor on top, and construct urbanization effects on the atmospheric environment index system. Included are 4 first-level indicators,7 second-level indicators, and 65 third-level indicators. With respect to the indicator system, urbanization atmospheric security assessment model, urbanization atmospheric coordination assessment model and urbanization atmospheric sustainable development assessment model was set up respectively.
Lastly, the relationship of the urbanization development impact on the atmosphere environment is examined by combining the actual urbanization in Shandong. According to the research conclusion, some suggestions and policies on air environment protection are proposed.
论文主要采用战略环境影响评价的基本思路和方法,探究城市化发展和大气环境质量两者之间的内在关系及未来规划年城市化发展战略对大气的环境影响。即按照环境影响设别、环境现状评价、环境影响预测和环境影响评价的模式进行。论文是对大气环境单因素影响评价,环境影响识别部分未作分析。通过回顾性评价,了解城市化发展与大气环境质量的互动关系,在分析工业化发展现阶段的基础上进行城市化与工业废气排放量耦合分析；通过预测(城市化预测、能源预测、主要大气污染因子排放量预测)和承载力分析,明确城市化的快速发展是否能满足大气环境承载力的评价要求。最后构建城市化对大气环境影响的评价指标体系及综合评价模型。论文提出了三个方面的创新点,即提出了城市化与大气环境的新型耦合曲线应遵循的三个原则,构建了基于PSR平衡记分卡城市化发展对大气环境影响的评价指标体系；在城市环境熵模型的基础上,提出了城市大气环境熵模型,并对城市环境熵模型进行了修正；提出了能源需求预测的优化组合模型。具体研究内容如下：
在城市化发展对大气环境影响的回顾性评价方面,分别采用定性分析法、城市大气环境熵模型和模糊数学综合评判法,对山东省17城市近十年来的城市大气环境质量进行回顾性评价,研究山东城市化发展与大气环境质量变化的互动发展关系。研究结果表明：随着山东省城市化进程的加快,大气环境质量有逐步改善的趋势,两者表现出一定的正相关性。通过城市大气环境熵对大气环境影响的回顾性评价,发现各大气污染因子的熵值变化情况和对应的定性分析结果完全一致。城市大气环境熵结果分析也表明,随城市化进程的加快,大气环境质量得到了改善,两者整体上表现出一定的正相关性。城市大气环境熵模型不仅解决了定性分析方法不能解决的多因子环境指标大气环境质量综合评价问题,而且还从熵值绝对值大小的角度进一步分析城市化发展对大气环境质量的影响程度。
在城市化——工业化——大气环境的互动关系方面,分别采用钱纳里模式、库兹涅茨模式、赛尔奎因和钱纳里模式及霍夫曼系数法研究山东省工业化发展现状,发现山东省己进入工业化中期的后期阶段,正逐步向工业化后期迈进。利用城市化与工业化的耦合机制及协调性进行分析,以明确两者间的互动关系。山东省城市化与工业化的耦合程度已经进入颉颃时期,耦合度存在明显的时间差异,但协调度总体上呈上升的发展态势。当工业化与城市化处于颉颃时期时,城市化进入加速发展期,此阶段由于城市化发展需要大量的资金、资源和人口转移为支撑,必会对生态环境带来一定的冲击。通过山东城市化发展与大气环境交互耦合机制及规律性研究,构建城市化与大气环境耦合方程,其耦合曲线是一条“双指数”曲线,整体上遵循先恶化后改善的发展趋势。针对城市化与大气环境耦合曲线,提出新型耦合曲线应遵循的三个原则,即扁平化原则、提前原则和速降原则。根据治理成本和大气环境恶化程度两个环境评估指标,提出了二元四次矩阵模型和相应的对策组合模型,即低治理成本低危害型,采用扁平化+提前原则；高治理成本低危害型,采用扁平化原则；高治理成本高危害型,采用扁平化+提前原则；低治理成本高危害型,采用速降原则的四种对策组合矩阵。
山东城市化与工业废气排放量耦合实证研究表明,耦合曲线既不是“双指数”曲线,也不是2次方程,而是4次方程。曲线表明,随山东省城市化进程的加快,大气质量趋向好转,目前两者处于磨合阶段。工业二氧化硫、工业烟尘、工业粉尘排放量与城市化各自耦合曲线和工业废气的耦合曲线相似,他们的互动关系也都进入了磨合阶段。但前者起伏较大,而后两者的起伏相对较小。针对对策组合矩阵模型,对工业二氧化硫排放量提出了采取扁平+提前的处理原则；对工业烟尘和粉尘排放量采取速降的处理原则。
在城市化发展——能源需求——大气污染物排放量预测研究方面,分别采取时间序列法、灰色预测法及联合国法对山东省未来规划年城市化率进行预测,提出了山东省未来规划年城市化率高中低三种情景方案。采用节约指数模型分析近十年山东能源及二氧化硫节约指数演变情况表明,山东省节能水平低于于全国平均水平,而二氧化硫节约指数却逐年下降,好于全国平均水平。山东省新能源发展总体呈上升趋势,但与世界平均水平相比仍存在很大差距。采用情景分析法(普通情景)和LEAP模型对未来规划年能源需求进行了预测。结果发现,能源消费年增长率、能源消费弹性系数和能源利用强度都较之2008年有了很大的提高,节能取得了一定的效果,但山东经济发展依赖能源消耗的事实依然没有改变。采用环境负荷法对未来规划年能源需求进行了预测,并将预测结果(理想情景)和对应的普通情景进行比较,发现普通情景预测的能源消费量不是保证GDP在相同增长速度下的最优结果,而且差距很大。将普通情景和理想情景进行优化组合,提出了各方案下的优化情景。经计算得出的优化情景能源需求量都远小于普通情景的能源需求量,但相比相同年份下的理想情景,能源消费量尚有较大的差距。因此,山东省在短期内还难以改变能源消费不经济的事实。
利用山东省未来规划年能源需求的预测结果,采用有关数学模型对未来规划年的主要大气污染物排放量进行了预测。最后利用A-P值法,对山东省SO2大气环境承载力进行了分析,研究表明各规划年二氧化硫排放量都小于最大允许排放量。说明随着山东省城市化发展战略的实施,二氧化硫排放量未超出大气环境容量,大气环境承载能力足以支撑山东省城市化发展战略的顺利实施。
在基于PSR平衡记分卡构建山东城市化发展对大气环境影响评价指标体系及综合评价模型研究方面,首先,在理论上论证了基于PSR的平衡计分卡去构建环境影响指标体系的可行性。平衡计分卡和PSR模型都具有系统性、因果性和可持续发展的共性特点。平衡记分卡还具有环境指标体系设计的两个关键特点,即平衡性和动态性。如果将平衡计分卡和PSR模型两者的优势结合起来,建立基于PSR的平衡计分卡去构建环境影响指标体系应该可行。按照平衡计分卡四个维度,将顾客要素指标放在顶层,构建了城市化发展对大气环境影响的指标体系。其中一级指标4个,二级指标7个,三级指标65个。围绕指标体系,分别构建了城市化大气环境的安全度评价模型、城市化大气环境的协调度评价模型和城市化与大气环境的可持续发展评价模型。
最后,结合山东城市化发展实际,得出了城市化发展对大气环境影响的相关结论,提出了大气环境保护的相关建议与对策。
Urbanization development has played a significant role in promoting the whole human beings'civilization process. At present, urbanization development all over the world still keeps an increasing trend. China and Shandong province are both in an accelerating urbanization development period. Urbanization process promotes the fast development of society and economy; on the other hand, urbanization consumes huge resources and brings negative impact on city eco-environment and then put much threat on the sustainable development of our surviving system directly. The problem of urban air pollution caused by urbanization development had brought a serious threat to the urban environment. The urbanization development is an act of social economy development of country and region strategic policy. In order to slow down or prevent the negative effect on the urban air environment caused by the drawback, invalidation or failure of the strategic policy, we must think of using the Strategic Environmental Assessment method to design the system and estimate it. China needs development, while development needs strategy. Except the developing strategy, the sustainability is also needed. The Strategic Environmental Assessment is one of the measurements to make sure the development is sustainable. Studying the urbanization strategy influence on the air environment not only correspond to the Decree of the State Council(NO.559) signed by Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, that is correspond to urban construction and development plan should undertake Environmental Impact Assessment, but also correspond to the strategy plan that Shandong economy must develops sustainably.
The thesis mainly takes the Environmental Impact Assessment methods to study the inner relationship between the urbanization development and atmosphere quality and the urbanization development impact on the atmosphere quality in the future planning year. That is on the basis of Environmental Impact Identification, Environmental Actuality Assessment, Environmental Impact Prediction and Environmental Impact Assessment model. On the consideration of that this thesis is based on the single-factor assessment of atmospheric environment impact, and there is no analysis of Environmental Impact Identification. Through the retrospective evaluation, the interaction relationship between the urbanization development and atmosphere quality was analyzed. Furthermore, the coupling analysis of the urbanization and the emissions of the industry waste gas were examined based on the analysis of the contemporary industrialization level. Through analyzing forecast (urbanization forecast, energy forecast, emissions of major air pollution factors forecast) and bearing capacity, the fast-speed urbanization rate and the requirement of the bearing capacity of atmosphere is examined. Lastly, the system of evaluation and comprehensive evaluation model of the urbanization impact on the air environment was biult. The three main innovation points of this essay are raised, that are three principles that the new coupling curve of the urbanization and air environment should obey; the evaluation system of urbanization impact on the atmosphere in Shandong based on the PSR balanced scorecard is built; on the basis of the entropy model of urban environment, the entropy model of the urban air environment is built and modified; optimized combination model of the energy demand forecast is raised.The main contents are the following:
On the aspect of the retrospective evaluate the urbanization impact on the air environment, I retrospectively analyzed the air environment impact of urbanization in 17 cities in Shandong province by qualitative analysis, the entropy model of the urban air environment and the fuzzy mathematics comprehensive judgment approaches is carried out. The interactive relationship between urbanization development and air quality change in Shandong is also analyzed. The research results show that:along with the accelerating of urbanization rate, the atmosphere shows a trend of becoming better and there is a positive correlation between them. Through retrospectively evaluating the urbanization impact on the air environment, the entropy change of pollution factors was exactly the same with the result of the qualitative analysis. The result of the urban atmosphere entropy shows that the cities' atmosphere quality improved with the accelerating urbanization rate, and they show a positive correlation. The model of the urban atmosphere entropy not only solved the comprehensive evaluation of all indicators of the atmosphere quality which can not solved by the qualitative analysis method, but also analyzed the urbanization process impact on the atmosphere quality by analyzing the absolute entropy value.
On the aspect of interaction relationship between the urbanization, industrialization and atmospheric environment, Chenery respectively mode, Kuznets mode, Syrquin and Chenery mode and method of Huffman coefficient was applied in Shandong province to present industrialization development research. The result shows that Shandong has entered the stage of late middle industrialization and the industrialization is gradually to later stage. The urbanization and industrialization of coupling mechanism analysis and coordination is used in order to make clear the interactive relationship between them. The urbanization and the industrialization coupling degree have entered the antagonistic period. There are obvious differences in the time of coupling, but shows a overall coordination after the ascendant trend stage. When the industrialization and urbanization is in antagonistic period, urbanization development accelerates and a lot of money and resources is necessary and then bring a certain impact to the ecological environment. Through urbanization and atmospheric environment interactive coupling mechanism and the regularity study in Shandong, the coupling equation curve is a "double exponential curve" generally after the deterioration of the improved following trends. For urbanization and atmospheric environment, puts forward the new coupling coupling curve should follow the three principles of the curve, i.e. the flattening principle, bring forward principle and speed lose principle. According to the management cost and atmospheric environmental degradation degree evaluation index, four matrix model and dual model corresponding countermeasures was put forward. low manage cost and low harm type control using flat+ advance principle, high manage cost and low harm type using control flatting principle, high manage cost and high harm type control using flat+ advance principle, Low manage cost and high damage type control using drop principle.
Urbanization and industrial emissions coupling empirical studies in Shandong show that neither coupling "double exponential curve", nor 2 times curve equation, but four equations. The curve shows with the pace of urbanization in Shandong province, atmospheric quality is getting better. Industrial SO2, industrial soot, dust emissions and urbanization, industrial waste has their own respective coupling curve; their relationship is in the break-in stage. But the first one fluctuates a lot; the latter two was much more stable. In combination of matrix model, countermeasures, flat+ treatment principle in advance, are put forward for industrial SO2 emissions, Fast drop principle is used for soot and dust emissions.
In the urbanized development—energy supply requirement—air pollutant emission load forecast research aspect, the Time Series method, Grey forecast law and Uncitral Model law are applied to forecast the future planning year's urbanization rate of Shandong Province, with the low, middle and high three scenarios are projected. Analyzing the saving index Shandong's energy and sulfur dioxide in the recent ten years with saving index model indicates that Shandong Province's energy eficiency is lower than the national average level, but the sulfur dioxide index which is better than the national average level is decreasing year by year. New energy development in Shandong Province is increasing, but compared with the world average level there is still a long way to go. The energy demand is predicted using scenario analysis (general situation) and the LEAP model. The results showed that annual growth rate of energy consumption, elasticity of energy consumption and energy intensity has been greatly improved compared to 2008; energy saving has some achievements but the fact that economic development depends on energy consumption has not changed. Environmental load method was used in the forecast for energy demand (ideal scenario) of future planning year. To compare forecast results of the ideal scenario and the common scenarios, it is found common scenarios cannot guarantee energy consumption to be the optimal result when GDP under the same growth rate, the gap is getting large. Combine common scenario and the ideal scenario would optimize the programs, and the optimal scenario is the best situation. After calculation, nergy demand of the optimal scenarios is much smaller than normal energy demand scenarios. But compared to the ideal scenario energy consumption, there are still large gaps. Therefore, in the short term, Shandong Province is difficult to change the fact that energy consumption is not efficient.
Using the energy demand forecasting result in the future planning year in Shandong province, the related mathematical model is used to carry on the forecast of the main air pollutant emissions. Finally, the A-P method is applied to analyze the SO2 bearing capacity in Shandong province. The research had indicated that in each planning year SO2 emissions was smaller than the biggest emission permissions. It shows that along with the urbanization developmental strategy's implementation in Shandong province, the SO2 emissions have not surpassed the atmospheric environment capacity. Atmospheric environment bearing capacity can support the urbanization developmental strategy in Shandong Province.
In terms of researches to construct Shandong urbanized development effect on Atmospheric Environment Impact Assessment based on PSR balanced scorecard and Comprehensive evaluation model, this thesis discussed the feasibility of using PSR balanced scorecard to construct environment impact indicator system firstly. Balanced scorecard and PSR model has the same character of system, causality and sustainability. Balanced scorecard also has two key characters of environment indicator system design, that is, balance and dynamic. If we combine the advantage of balanced scorecard and PSR model, it is feasible to construct environment impact indicator system using scorecard based on PSR. According to the four dimensions of balanced scorecard, we put the customer factor on top, and construct urbanization effects on the atmospheric environment index system. Included are 4 first-level indicators,7 second-level indicators, and 65 third-level indicators. With respect to the indicator system, urbanization atmospheric security assessment model, urbanization atmospheric coordination assessment model and urbanization atmospheric sustainable development assessment model was set up respectively.
Lastly, the relationship of the urbanization development impact on the atmosphere environment is examined by combining the actual urbanization in Shandong. According to the research conclusion, some suggestions and policies on air environment protection are proposed.
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