黄土丘陵区纸坊沟流域农业生态经济系统耦合过程研究
|
摘要
黄土丘陵区是我国生态脆弱地区之一,在漫长的社会发展过程中,存在着增长型机制的经济系统对自然资源需求的无限性与具有稳定型机制的生态系统对自然资源供给的有限性之间的矛盾,这一矛盾表现在特殊的自然条件和人为不合理的土地利用,使得该区域植被退化,水土流失严重,生态脆弱,严重制约着当地社会经济的发展,因此,缓解矛盾、正确认识生态系统与经济系统的耦合过程,是协调黄土丘陵区生态与经济关系持续、稳定发展的有效途径。
本文在深入研究农业生态经济系统耦合过程的基础上,针对黄土丘陵区典型流域-纸坊沟流域近70年生态经济系统耦合过程中存在的问题,以生态学、经济学、生态经济学、系统工程学等理论为指导,运用多学科交叉的集成分析方法,对该流域农业生态经济系统的互动关系、耦合驱动力及其耦合模型的建立、耦合态势等进行了分析,并探讨了黄土丘陵区农业生态经济系统良性耦合的对策。主要结论如下:
(1)应用生态足迹和生态系统服务价值模型相结合的分析方法,研究了在特定时空尺度下,生态系统为人类提供的服务价值和经济系统对生态系统的作用过程和强度。根据分析结果,纸坊沟流域农业生态经济系统的互动关系表现为“生态恶化——生态、经济相互调节、适应——生态、经济良性互动”的过程。
(2)采用主成分分析方法,分别探讨纸坊沟流域农业生态系统和经济系统的耦合驱动力,结果表明:社会经济条件是其耦合的主要驱动力,生态环境是影响黄土丘陵区纸坊沟流域农业生态经济系统耦合的基础,具体可归纳为人为-经济发展驱动、自然-生态环境驱动、社会-人口压力驱动、政策-产业结构调整驱动这四类因子。
(3)建立了生态环境与社会经济综合评价指标体系,运用层次分析法,确定了指标权重;通过建立耦合模型,对该研究流域近70年的耦合态势进行了分析,得出:目前纸坊沟流域农业生态经济系统的耦合态势处于协调发展阶段,它经历了经济系统对生态系统初级萌发阶段-掠取时期-促进时期-协调阶段,相对应的生态系统对经济系统初级响应阶段-滞后时期-恢复时期-协调阶段的耦合过程。
(4)通过制定农业生态经济系统耦合类型分类表,参考耦合度的拟合曲线趋势,得出:目前纸坊沟流域农业生态经济系统仍互相不断的协调耦合,已初步进入良性耦合状态。
(5)参照纸坊沟流域农业生态经济系统耦合态势演变及其驱动过程,集成、分析了黄土丘陵区农业生态经济系统良性耦合的策略:结合区域生态要求,加强资源产业耦合,培育后续产业;加强区域互动合作;积极发挥农牧耦合的最大效益;建立长效机制,继续推进退耕还林工程;构建合理完善的制度保障体系。
Loess hilly region is one of China's ecologically fragile areas. During the long development of the society, there is the contradiction between the growth mechanism of natural resources of the economic system of unlimited demand and the stable ecosystem-based mechanisms of the limited supply of natural resources. This contradiction is the special natural conditions and human land use unreasonable, degradation of vegetation in the region, serious soil and water loss, ecological fragile, seriously restricted the development of local socio-economic.Therefore, alleviates the contradiction, understood correctly the ecosystem and economic system's coupling process, is coordinated the loess rolling country ecology and the economic relationships continually, the steady progression efficient path. Alleviate the contradictions, a correct understanding of the ecological system and economic system of the coupling process, is to coordinate the loess hilly region the relationship between the environment and the economy continued and stable development of an effective way.
In the basic of study on the coupling process of agricultural eco-economic system, according to the problems with coupling process of agricultural eco-economic system of which have existed for 70 years in Zhifanggou watershed ,which is the typical watershed of loess hilly region, directed by the the theory of ecology, economic, ecolonomics and system engineering, by the integration analysis the mutual relationship, coupling driving force , the coupling model and trend of the coupling process of agricultural eco-economic system were analyzed, and the strategies of benign coupling were discussed. Main results are as follows.
(1)Application of ecological footprint and the value of ecosystem services model that combines analytical methods to study in a specific the spatial and temporal scales ecosystem services for human values and economic system the role of ecosystem processes and intensity. According to the analysis results, Zhifanggou watershed agricultural eco-economic system of the interaction shown as the "ecological degradation-ecological, economic mutual adjustment, adaptation-ecological, economic positive interaction" process.
(2)Using principal component analysis, respectively Zhifanggou watershed agro-ecosystem and economic system of the coupling driving force, results show that: the socio-economic conditions is the main driving force coupling, affecting the ecological environment in Loess Hilly Region Zhifanggou watershed the basis of agro-ecological the economic system coupling, Specific induction man-made-economic development driving, naturally-the ecological environment driving, community-driven by population pressure, policies-industrial restructuring drive these four factors.
(3)The establishment of the ecological environment and socio-economic comprehensive evaluation index system, using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to determine the index weight; by establishing the coupling model and analyzing the study of coupling situation in this watershed at the nearly 70 years, it can be found: the coupling situation of agricultural eco-economic system in Zhifanggou watershed is now in the stage of coordinate development, it has gone through an economic system to ecosystem of initial germination stage- predatory period-promoting period-coordinated stage, corresponding to the coupling process of ecosystem to economic system of primary response stage-lag period-recovery period- coordination stage.
(4)Through the development of agro-ecological economic system coupling type classification, with reference to the coupling degree of the trend curve that currently Zhifanggou watershed agro-ecological economic system is still continuing the coordination of mutual coupling, has been initially entered a state of good coupling.
(5)Making reference to the coupling evolution and driven process about the agricultural ecological economic system at Zhifanggou watershed, and analyzing the optimum coupling strategy of the loess hilly-gully region agricultural ecological economic system: combined with the regional ecological requirements, strengthen resources industries coupled, cultivated subsequent industries; strengthen regional interactive and cooperation; maximized the coupled effectiveness between agriculture and animal husbandry; established long-effect mechanism, promoted reforestation project continually; reasonable built a comprehensive security system.
本文在深入研究农业生态经济系统耦合过程的基础上,针对黄土丘陵区典型流域-纸坊沟流域近70年生态经济系统耦合过程中存在的问题,以生态学、经济学、生态经济学、系统工程学等理论为指导,运用多学科交叉的集成分析方法,对该流域农业生态经济系统的互动关系、耦合驱动力及其耦合模型的建立、耦合态势等进行了分析,并探讨了黄土丘陵区农业生态经济系统良性耦合的对策。主要结论如下:
(1)应用生态足迹和生态系统服务价值模型相结合的分析方法,研究了在特定时空尺度下,生态系统为人类提供的服务价值和经济系统对生态系统的作用过程和强度。根据分析结果,纸坊沟流域农业生态经济系统的互动关系表现为“生态恶化——生态、经济相互调节、适应——生态、经济良性互动”的过程。
(2)采用主成分分析方法,分别探讨纸坊沟流域农业生态系统和经济系统的耦合驱动力,结果表明:社会经济条件是其耦合的主要驱动力,生态环境是影响黄土丘陵区纸坊沟流域农业生态经济系统耦合的基础,具体可归纳为人为-经济发展驱动、自然-生态环境驱动、社会-人口压力驱动、政策-产业结构调整驱动这四类因子。
(3)建立了生态环境与社会经济综合评价指标体系,运用层次分析法,确定了指标权重;通过建立耦合模型,对该研究流域近70年的耦合态势进行了分析,得出:目前纸坊沟流域农业生态经济系统的耦合态势处于协调发展阶段,它经历了经济系统对生态系统初级萌发阶段-掠取时期-促进时期-协调阶段,相对应的生态系统对经济系统初级响应阶段-滞后时期-恢复时期-协调阶段的耦合过程。
(4)通过制定农业生态经济系统耦合类型分类表,参考耦合度的拟合曲线趋势,得出:目前纸坊沟流域农业生态经济系统仍互相不断的协调耦合,已初步进入良性耦合状态。
(5)参照纸坊沟流域农业生态经济系统耦合态势演变及其驱动过程,集成、分析了黄土丘陵区农业生态经济系统良性耦合的策略:结合区域生态要求,加强资源产业耦合,培育后续产业;加强区域互动合作;积极发挥农牧耦合的最大效益;建立长效机制,继续推进退耕还林工程;构建合理完善的制度保障体系。
Loess hilly region is one of China's ecologically fragile areas. During the long development of the society, there is the contradiction between the growth mechanism of natural resources of the economic system of unlimited demand and the stable ecosystem-based mechanisms of the limited supply of natural resources. This contradiction is the special natural conditions and human land use unreasonable, degradation of vegetation in the region, serious soil and water loss, ecological fragile, seriously restricted the development of local socio-economic.Therefore, alleviates the contradiction, understood correctly the ecosystem and economic system's coupling process, is coordinated the loess rolling country ecology and the economic relationships continually, the steady progression efficient path. Alleviate the contradictions, a correct understanding of the ecological system and economic system of the coupling process, is to coordinate the loess hilly region the relationship between the environment and the economy continued and stable development of an effective way.
In the basic of study on the coupling process of agricultural eco-economic system, according to the problems with coupling process of agricultural eco-economic system of which have existed for 70 years in Zhifanggou watershed ,which is the typical watershed of loess hilly region, directed by the the theory of ecology, economic, ecolonomics and system engineering, by the integration analysis the mutual relationship, coupling driving force , the coupling model and trend of the coupling process of agricultural eco-economic system were analyzed, and the strategies of benign coupling were discussed. Main results are as follows.
(1)Application of ecological footprint and the value of ecosystem services model that combines analytical methods to study in a specific the spatial and temporal scales ecosystem services for human values and economic system the role of ecosystem processes and intensity. According to the analysis results, Zhifanggou watershed agricultural eco-economic system of the interaction shown as the "ecological degradation-ecological, economic mutual adjustment, adaptation-ecological, economic positive interaction" process.
(2)Using principal component analysis, respectively Zhifanggou watershed agro-ecosystem and economic system of the coupling driving force, results show that: the socio-economic conditions is the main driving force coupling, affecting the ecological environment in Loess Hilly Region Zhifanggou watershed the basis of agro-ecological the economic system coupling, Specific induction man-made-economic development driving, naturally-the ecological environment driving, community-driven by population pressure, policies-industrial restructuring drive these four factors.
(3)The establishment of the ecological environment and socio-economic comprehensive evaluation index system, using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to determine the index weight; by establishing the coupling model and analyzing the study of coupling situation in this watershed at the nearly 70 years, it can be found: the coupling situation of agricultural eco-economic system in Zhifanggou watershed is now in the stage of coordinate development, it has gone through an economic system to ecosystem of initial germination stage- predatory period-promoting period-coordinated stage, corresponding to the coupling process of ecosystem to economic system of primary response stage-lag period-recovery period- coordination stage.
(4)Through the development of agro-ecological economic system coupling type classification, with reference to the coupling degree of the trend curve that currently Zhifanggou watershed agro-ecological economic system is still continuing the coordination of mutual coupling, has been initially entered a state of good coupling.
(5)Making reference to the coupling evolution and driven process about the agricultural ecological economic system at Zhifanggou watershed, and analyzing the optimum coupling strategy of the loess hilly-gully region agricultural ecological economic system: combined with the regional ecological requirements, strengthen resources industries coupled, cultivated subsequent industries; strengthen regional interactive and cooperation; maximized the coupled effectiveness between agriculture and animal husbandry; established long-effect mechanism, promoted reforestation project continually; reasonable built a comprehensive security system.
引文
[1]徐中民,张志强,程国栋,等.生态经济学理论方法与应用[M].黄河水利出版社. 2003. 3.
[2]唐建荣.生态经济学[M].化学工业出版社-环境科学与工程出版中心. 2005. 3.
[3]冷朝阳,贾静,张树兴.我国农业生态环境的现状及应对策略之法律思考.中国环境法网[EB/OL]. http://riel.whu.edu.cn/show.asp?ID=3559. 2005-11-14/2009-03-24.
[4]国家减灾中心灾害信息部. 2008年我国自然灾害的主要特点[J].中国减灾, 2009(1),专题
[5]刘君凤.专家称中国农业生产造成严重环境污染.中国新闻图片网[EB/OL]. http://www.cnsphoto.com/NewsPhoto/ShowNewsDetail.asp?Id=286303&Flag=WN . 2006-07-05/2009-03-24.
[6]卢宗凡,梁一民,刘国彬编.中国黄土高原生态农业[M].西安:陕西科学技术出版社. 1997.
[7]李壁成.纸房沟流域土地资源评价及土地利用优化模式的试验研究,安塞试区编:黄土丘陵沟壑区水土保持型生态农业研究(上册)[M].西安:天则出版社, 1990.
[8]查广云.科学发展观与我国生态经济学的发展[J].河南财政税务高等专科学校学报, 2006, 20(5): 45-46.
[9]韩剑萍,李秀萍.中国农业生态经济系统研究进展[J].甘肃农业, 2005, (12): 7-8.
[10]王继军,郭满才,等.纸坊沟流域生态经济系统演变规律研究[J].中国农学通报, 2005, 21(10):324-329.
[11]王继军.纸坊沟流域农业生态经济系统建设及其投入问题分析[J].世界科技研究与发展, 2001, 22(3): 56-58.
[12]万里强,侯向阳,任继周.系统耦合理论在我国草地农业系统应用的研究[J].中国生态农业学报, 2004, 12(1): 162-164.
[13]任继周.系统耦合在大农业中的战略意义[J].科学(上海), 1999, 51(6): 12-14.
[14]万里强,李向林.系统耦合及其对农业系统的作用.草业学报, 2002, 11(3): 1-7.
[15]金轲,汪巷水,蔡典雄,等.水肥耦合效应研究Ⅰ.不同降雨年型对N、P水配台效应的影响[J].植物营养与肥料学报, 1999,5(1): 1-7.
[16]雷桂林.山地一绿洲生态系统耦合模式与效益[J].草业科学, 2003, 20(5): 64-66.
[17]姜学民,徐志辉.生态经济学通论[M].北京:中国林业出版社, 1993.
[18]曹明宏,雷书彦,姜学民.论生态经济良性耦合与湖北农业运作机制创新[J].湖北农业科学, 2000, (6): 7-9.
[19]黄奕龙,张殿发.区域水资源可持续利用的生态经济评价[J].水文水资源, 2000, 21(3): 11-13.
[20]张殿发,黄奕龙.土地资源可持续利用的生态经济系统评价[J].农村生态环境, 2000, 16(2): 45—48.
[21]任继周.草地农业生态学.北京:中国农业出版社, 1995, 14.
[22]任继周,万长贵.系统耦合与荒漠一绿洲草地农业系统[J].草业学报, 1994, 3(3): 1-8.
[23]马俊杰,程金香,张志杰,等.生态工业区建设中的耦合问题及其实施途径研究[J].地球科学进展, 2004,增刊(19):482-485.
[24]刘耀彬,陈斐,李仁东.区域城市化与生态环境耦合发展模拟及调控策略-以江苏省为例[J].地理研究, 2007, 26(1): 187-196.
[25]高群.国外生态一经济系统整合模型研究进展[J].自然资源学报, 2003, 18(3): 375-383.
[26]Common M., Perrings C.“Towards an ecological economics of sustainability”[J]. Ecological Economics, 1992, 6: 7~34.
[27]John C. Woodwell. A simulation model to illustrate feedbacks among resource consumption, production, and facts of production in ecological-economic system[J]. Ecological Modelling, 1998, 112: 227~247.
[28]Rosimeiry Porlrela, Ida Rademacher. A dynamic model of patterns of deforestation and their effect on the ability of the Brazilian Amazonia to provide ecosystem services[J]. Ecological Modelling, 2001, 143: 115~146.
[29]Marco Janssen, Bert de Vries. The battle of perspectives: a multi-agent model with adaptive responses to climate change[J]. Ecological Economics, 1998, 26: 43~65.
[30]Roelof M Boumans, Villa F, Costanza R, et al. Non-spatial calibration of a general unit model for ecosystem simulations[J]. Ecological Modeling, 2001, 146: 17~32.
[31]Costanza R, Fred H Sklar, Mary L White. Modeling coastal landscape dynamics[J]. Bioscience, 1990, 40: 91~92.
[32]Costanza R, Lisa Wainge, Carl Folke, et al. Modeling complex ecological economic system[J]. Bioscience, 1993, 43: 545~555.
[33]Alexey Voinov, Robert Costanza R,Lisa Wainge, et al. Paluxent landscape model: integrated ecological economic modeling of a watershed[J]. Environmental Modelling & software, 1999, 14: 473~491.
[34]Kaufmsan R. The environment and economic well being. In: Henk Folmer, et al. Fronties of Environmental Economics[M]. Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, U.K, 2001.
[35] Monica Grasso. Ecological-economic model for optimal mangrove trade off between forestry and fishery production: comparing a dynamic optimization and a simulation model[J]. Ecological Modelling, 1998, 112: 131~150.
[36]方创琳.黑河流域生态经济带分异协调规律与耦合发展模式[J].生态学报, 2002, 22(5): 699-708.
[37]左其亭,夏军.陆面水量-水质-生态耦合系统模型研究[J].水利学报, 2002, (2): 61-65.
[37]董孝斌,高旺盛.关于系统耦合理论的探讨[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2005, 21(1): 290-292.
[38]张秋菊.黄土丘陵沟壑区多尺度土地利用变化特征及其演变驱动力研究[D].北京:中国科学院博士学位论文, 2004.
[39]孔正红.黄土高原丘陵沟壑区小流域优化生态-生产范式[D].中国科学院博士学位论文, 2002.
[40]李壁成.小流域水土流失与综合治理遥感监测[M].北京:科学出版社, 1995.
[41]张象枢. Agricultural System Engineering Theory. Jinan: Shandong Science and Technology Press, 1987.
[42]Daily GC. Nature’s Services: Societal Dependence on Natural Ecosystems. Washington: Island Press, 1997.
[43]杨新民,李玲燕.西北地区生态环境存在问题与生态修复对策[J].水土保持研究, 2005, 12(5):98-106.
[44]王青.黄土高原丘陵沟壑区生态农业与农村经济可持续发展模式研究[J].西北农林科技大学学报-社会科学版, 2002, 2(2): 41-47.
[45]Costanza R, d’Arge R, de Groot R, et al the value of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital. Nature, 1997, 386: 253- 260.
[46]谢高地,鲁春霞,冷允法,等.青藏高原生态资产的价值评估[J].自然资源学报, 2003, 18(2): 189-195.
[47]于书霞,尚金城,郭怀成.基于生态价值核算的土地利用政策环境评价[J].地理科学, 2004, 24(6): 727-732.
[48]李秀彬.中国近20年来耕地面积的变化及其政策启示[J].自然资源学报, 1999, 14(4): 329-333.
[49]陶在朴. Ecological Rucksack and Ecological Footprint- The Weight and Area Concept of Sustainable Development. Beijing: Economical Sciences Publishing House, 2003.
[50]谌伟,李小平,孙从军,等. 1999—2005年上海市纵向时间序列生态足迹分析[J].生态环境, 2008, 17(1): 422-427.
[51] Wackernagel M, Monfreda C, Moran D, et al. National Footprint and Bio-capacity Accounts 2005: The Underlying Calculation Method. Oakland, USA: Global Footprint Network, 2005.
[52] Wackernagel M, Schulz NB, Deumling D, et al. Tracking the ecological overshoot of the human economy. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2002, 99: 9266- 9271.
[53]琚鸿.广州市花都区2004年生态足迹和生态承载力计算分析[J].广州环境科学, 2007, 22(1): 25-27.
[54]张正栋,周永章,夏斌,等.南方丘陵山区生态足迹计算和分析——以韩江上游梅江区为例[J].水土保持研究, 2005, 12(5):115-118.
[55]Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. The FAO Statistical Database [EB/OL].http://faostat.fao.org/site/339/default.aspx . 2005- 05-16/2009-3-24.
[56]徐中民,张志强,程国栋,等.中国1999年生态足迹计算与发展能力分析[J].应用生态学报, 2003, 14(2): 280-285.
[57]龙爱华,张志强,苏志勇.生态足迹评介及国际研究前沿[J].地球科学进展, 2004, 19(6): 971-981.
[58]胡丽芳.区域环境变迁与持续发展的互动关系[J].热带地理, 2002, 22(3): 214-218.
[59]王继军,郑科等.中尺度生态农业建设效益评价指标体系研究[J].水土保持研究, 2000, 7 (3): 243-247.
[60]袁志发,周静芋主编.试验设计与分析[M].北京:科学出版社, 2002, 128-138.
[61]林杰斌,林川雄,刘明德,等著. SPSS12.0统计建模与应用实务[M].北京:中国铁道出版社, 2006, 383-423, 495-518.
[62]林海明,张文霖.主成分分析与因子分析详细的异同和SPSS软件[J].统计研究, 2005(3): 65-69.
[63]鲁欣,秦大庸,刘俊,等.宁夏粮食产量主要影响因子分析[J].灌溉排水学报, 2006, 25(6): 65-70.
[64]郭满才,王继军,彭珂珊,等.纸坊沟流域生态经济系统演变阶段及其驱动力初探[J].水土保持研究, 2005, 12(4): 245-246, 255.
[65]刘明,刘淳,王克林.洞庭湖流域生态安全状态变化及其驱动力分析[J].生态学杂志, 2007, 26(8): 1271-1276.
[66]于秀林,任雪松.多元统计分析[M].北京:中国统计出版, 1999.
[67]何晓群.多元统计分析[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社, 2004.
[68]孟生旺.用主成分分析法进行多指标综合评价应注意的问题[J].统计研究, 1992(4).
[69]陈平雁,黄浙明. SPSS10.0统计软件应用教程[M].人民军医出版社, 2002.
[70]李朝旗,李朝赟,刘沛.基于主成分分析的区域可持续发展能力评价—以江苏省为例[J].开发研究, 2009(1):64-67.
[71]罗积玉,邢英.经济统计分析方法及预测[M].北京:清华大学出版社, 1987.
[72]游家兴.如何正确运用因子分析法进行综合评价[J].统计教育, 2003, 5: 10-11.
[73]朱丽,张仁陟.甘肃省城市人居环境评价与分析[J].现代农业科技, 2008, (6): 193-195.
[74]唐启义,冯明光.实用统计分析及其DPS数据处理系统[M].北京:科学出版社, 2002.
[75]郭滨,毕玉芬,龙光强,等.不同植被恢复措施下退化灌草丛草地土壤理化性状的评价[J].云南农业大学学报, 2008,23(2): 195～199.
[76]陶金,付梅臣,田迪,等.矿业城市生态足迹变化及驱动力分析[J].中国矿业, 2009, 18(2): 44-47.
[77]刘晓辉,吕宪国.湿地生态系统服务功能变化的驱动力分析[J].干旱区资源与环境, 2009, 23(1): 24-28.
[78]李崇明,丁烈云.小城镇资源环境与社会经济协调发展评价模型及应用研究[J].系统工程理论与实践, 2004,(11): 134-144.
[79]乔标,方创琳.城市化与生态环境协调发展的动态耦合模型及其在干旱区的应用[J].生态学报, 2005, 25 (11) : 3003～3009.
[80]吴跃明,张子晰,郎东锋.新型环境经济协调度预测模型及应用[J].南京大学学报, 1999, 32(3): 467-473.
[81]吴大进,曹力,陈立华.协同学原理和应用[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社, 1990: 9-17.
[82]廖晓昕.稳定性的理论、方法和应用[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社, 1999.
[83]Ebara N R. D of coal utilization technology in Japan[J], Fuel Processing Technology, 2000, 62: 143- 151.
[84]Bretz E A. Clean coal technologies: A status report [J]. Electrical World, 1992, (2):37- 42.
[85]范维唐.发展符合我国煤炭开发利用特点的洁净煤技术[J].煤矿环境保护, 1995(3): 2-7.
[86]冯.贝塔兰菲.一般系统论[M].北京:科学文献出版社, 1987.
[87]徐学荣,吴祖建,张巨勇,等.可持续发展通道及预警研究[J].数学的实践与认识, 2003, 33(2): 31-37.
[88]曹利军.可持续发展评价理论与方法[M].北京:科学出版社, 1999, 56-57, 72, 118-182.
[89]曾建权.层次分析法在确定企业家评价指标权重中的应用[J].南京理工大学学报, 2004, 2 (1): 99-104.
[90]王继军.黄土丘陵区纸坊沟流域农业生态经济安全评价[J].中国水土保持科学, 2008, 6(4): 109-113.
[91]高长波,陈新庚,韦朝海,等.广东省生态安全状态及趋势定量评价[J].生态学报, 2006, 26 (7): 2191-2197.
[92]汤洁,李海毅,斯蔼.吉林省通榆县近20年农业可持续发展的生态安全[J].农业现代化研究, 2007, 1 (1): 75-78.
[93]王振祥,朱晓东,石磊,等.安徽省沿淮地区生态安全评价模型和指标体系[J].应用生态学报, 2006, 17 (12): 2431-2435.
[94]杨时民,李玉文,吕玉哲.扎龙湿地生态安全评价指标体系研究[J].林业科学, 2006, 42(5): 127-131.
[95]何琼.巢湖流域生态安全的综合评价研究[D].合肥:合肥工业大学硕士学位论文, 2004.
[96]李智国.中国西南边疆山区社会经济与资源环境耦合态势分析—以云南省为例[J].开发研究, 2008(1): 59-63.
[97]贾士靖,刘银仓,邢明军.基于耦合模型的区域农业生态环境与经济协调发展研究[J].农业现代化研究, 2008, 29(5): 573-575.
[98]赵星.贵阳市乌当区生态—经济系统耦合关系研究[J].贵州师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2006, 24(3): 111-115.
[99]黄金川,方创琳.城市化与生态环境交互耦合机制与规律性分析[J].地理研究, 2003, 22(2): 211～220.
[100]杨殿林,王农,乌云格日勒.农牧辐合生态农业发展对策与建议[J].黑龙江畜牧兽医, 2007(11): 1-3.
[101]姚蓉,延军平.陕北地区生态与经济互动发展初探[J].绿色经济, 2007,(8): 55-62.
[102]吴玉鸣,张燕.中国区域经济增长与环境的耦合协调发展研究[J].资源科学, 2008, 30(1): 25-30
[103]李芬.黄土丘陵区纸坊沟流域农业生态安全评估[D].西北农林科技大学硕士学位论文, 2008.
[104]刘佳,王继军.黄土丘陵区纸坊沟流域农业生态系统和经济系统的互动关系[J].应用生态学报, 2009, 20(6).
[2]唐建荣.生态经济学[M].化学工业出版社-环境科学与工程出版中心. 2005. 3.
[3]冷朝阳,贾静,张树兴.我国农业生态环境的现状及应对策略之法律思考.中国环境法网[EB/OL]. http://riel.whu.edu.cn/show.asp?ID=3559. 2005-11-14/2009-03-24.
[4]国家减灾中心灾害信息部. 2008年我国自然灾害的主要特点[J].中国减灾, 2009(1),专题
[5]刘君凤.专家称中国农业生产造成严重环境污染.中国新闻图片网[EB/OL]. http://www.cnsphoto.com/NewsPhoto/ShowNewsDetail.asp?Id=286303&Flag=WN . 2006-07-05/2009-03-24.
[6]卢宗凡,梁一民,刘国彬编.中国黄土高原生态农业[M].西安:陕西科学技术出版社. 1997.
[7]李壁成.纸房沟流域土地资源评价及土地利用优化模式的试验研究,安塞试区编:黄土丘陵沟壑区水土保持型生态农业研究(上册)[M].西安:天则出版社, 1990.
[8]查广云.科学发展观与我国生态经济学的发展[J].河南财政税务高等专科学校学报, 2006, 20(5): 45-46.
[9]韩剑萍,李秀萍.中国农业生态经济系统研究进展[J].甘肃农业, 2005, (12): 7-8.
[10]王继军,郭满才,等.纸坊沟流域生态经济系统演变规律研究[J].中国农学通报, 2005, 21(10):324-329.
[11]王继军.纸坊沟流域农业生态经济系统建设及其投入问题分析[J].世界科技研究与发展, 2001, 22(3): 56-58.
[12]万里强,侯向阳,任继周.系统耦合理论在我国草地农业系统应用的研究[J].中国生态农业学报, 2004, 12(1): 162-164.
[13]任继周.系统耦合在大农业中的战略意义[J].科学(上海), 1999, 51(6): 12-14.
[14]万里强,李向林.系统耦合及其对农业系统的作用.草业学报, 2002, 11(3): 1-7.
[15]金轲,汪巷水,蔡典雄,等.水肥耦合效应研究Ⅰ.不同降雨年型对N、P水配台效应的影响[J].植物营养与肥料学报, 1999,5(1): 1-7.
[16]雷桂林.山地一绿洲生态系统耦合模式与效益[J].草业科学, 2003, 20(5): 64-66.
[17]姜学民,徐志辉.生态经济学通论[M].北京:中国林业出版社, 1993.
[18]曹明宏,雷书彦,姜学民.论生态经济良性耦合与湖北农业运作机制创新[J].湖北农业科学, 2000, (6): 7-9.
[19]黄奕龙,张殿发.区域水资源可持续利用的生态经济评价[J].水文水资源, 2000, 21(3): 11-13.
[20]张殿发,黄奕龙.土地资源可持续利用的生态经济系统评价[J].农村生态环境, 2000, 16(2): 45—48.
[21]任继周.草地农业生态学.北京:中国农业出版社, 1995, 14.
[22]任继周,万长贵.系统耦合与荒漠一绿洲草地农业系统[J].草业学报, 1994, 3(3): 1-8.
[23]马俊杰,程金香,张志杰,等.生态工业区建设中的耦合问题及其实施途径研究[J].地球科学进展, 2004,增刊(19):482-485.
[24]刘耀彬,陈斐,李仁东.区域城市化与生态环境耦合发展模拟及调控策略-以江苏省为例[J].地理研究, 2007, 26(1): 187-196.
[25]高群.国外生态一经济系统整合模型研究进展[J].自然资源学报, 2003, 18(3): 375-383.
[26]Common M., Perrings C.“Towards an ecological economics of sustainability”[J]. Ecological Economics, 1992, 6: 7~34.
[27]John C. Woodwell. A simulation model to illustrate feedbacks among resource consumption, production, and facts of production in ecological-economic system[J]. Ecological Modelling, 1998, 112: 227~247.
[28]Rosimeiry Porlrela, Ida Rademacher. A dynamic model of patterns of deforestation and their effect on the ability of the Brazilian Amazonia to provide ecosystem services[J]. Ecological Modelling, 2001, 143: 115~146.
[29]Marco Janssen, Bert de Vries. The battle of perspectives: a multi-agent model with adaptive responses to climate change[J]. Ecological Economics, 1998, 26: 43~65.
[30]Roelof M Boumans, Villa F, Costanza R, et al. Non-spatial calibration of a general unit model for ecosystem simulations[J]. Ecological Modeling, 2001, 146: 17~32.
[31]Costanza R, Fred H Sklar, Mary L White. Modeling coastal landscape dynamics[J]. Bioscience, 1990, 40: 91~92.
[32]Costanza R, Lisa Wainge, Carl Folke, et al. Modeling complex ecological economic system[J]. Bioscience, 1993, 43: 545~555.
[33]Alexey Voinov, Robert Costanza R,Lisa Wainge, et al. Paluxent landscape model: integrated ecological economic modeling of a watershed[J]. Environmental Modelling & software, 1999, 14: 473~491.
[34]Kaufmsan R. The environment and economic well being. In: Henk Folmer, et al. Fronties of Environmental Economics[M]. Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, U.K, 2001.
[35] Monica Grasso. Ecological-economic model for optimal mangrove trade off between forestry and fishery production: comparing a dynamic optimization and a simulation model[J]. Ecological Modelling, 1998, 112: 131~150.
[36]方创琳.黑河流域生态经济带分异协调规律与耦合发展模式[J].生态学报, 2002, 22(5): 699-708.
[37]左其亭,夏军.陆面水量-水质-生态耦合系统模型研究[J].水利学报, 2002, (2): 61-65.
[37]董孝斌,高旺盛.关于系统耦合理论的探讨[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2005, 21(1): 290-292.
[38]张秋菊.黄土丘陵沟壑区多尺度土地利用变化特征及其演变驱动力研究[D].北京:中国科学院博士学位论文, 2004.
[39]孔正红.黄土高原丘陵沟壑区小流域优化生态-生产范式[D].中国科学院博士学位论文, 2002.
[40]李壁成.小流域水土流失与综合治理遥感监测[M].北京:科学出版社, 1995.
[41]张象枢. Agricultural System Engineering Theory. Jinan: Shandong Science and Technology Press, 1987.
[42]Daily GC. Nature’s Services: Societal Dependence on Natural Ecosystems. Washington: Island Press, 1997.
[43]杨新民,李玲燕.西北地区生态环境存在问题与生态修复对策[J].水土保持研究, 2005, 12(5):98-106.
[44]王青.黄土高原丘陵沟壑区生态农业与农村经济可持续发展模式研究[J].西北农林科技大学学报-社会科学版, 2002, 2(2): 41-47.
[45]Costanza R, d’Arge R, de Groot R, et al the value of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital. Nature, 1997, 386: 253- 260.
[46]谢高地,鲁春霞,冷允法,等.青藏高原生态资产的价值评估[J].自然资源学报, 2003, 18(2): 189-195.
[47]于书霞,尚金城,郭怀成.基于生态价值核算的土地利用政策环境评价[J].地理科学, 2004, 24(6): 727-732.
[48]李秀彬.中国近20年来耕地面积的变化及其政策启示[J].自然资源学报, 1999, 14(4): 329-333.
[49]陶在朴. Ecological Rucksack and Ecological Footprint- The Weight and Area Concept of Sustainable Development. Beijing: Economical Sciences Publishing House, 2003.
[50]谌伟,李小平,孙从军,等. 1999—2005年上海市纵向时间序列生态足迹分析[J].生态环境, 2008, 17(1): 422-427.
[51] Wackernagel M, Monfreda C, Moran D, et al. National Footprint and Bio-capacity Accounts 2005: The Underlying Calculation Method. Oakland, USA: Global Footprint Network, 2005.
[52] Wackernagel M, Schulz NB, Deumling D, et al. Tracking the ecological overshoot of the human economy. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2002, 99: 9266- 9271.
[53]琚鸿.广州市花都区2004年生态足迹和生态承载力计算分析[J].广州环境科学, 2007, 22(1): 25-27.
[54]张正栋,周永章,夏斌,等.南方丘陵山区生态足迹计算和分析——以韩江上游梅江区为例[J].水土保持研究, 2005, 12(5):115-118.
[55]Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. The FAO Statistical Database [EB/OL].http://faostat.fao.org/site/339/default.aspx . 2005- 05-16/2009-3-24.
[56]徐中民,张志强,程国栋,等.中国1999年生态足迹计算与发展能力分析[J].应用生态学报, 2003, 14(2): 280-285.
[57]龙爱华,张志强,苏志勇.生态足迹评介及国际研究前沿[J].地球科学进展, 2004, 19(6): 971-981.
[58]胡丽芳.区域环境变迁与持续发展的互动关系[J].热带地理, 2002, 22(3): 214-218.
[59]王继军,郑科等.中尺度生态农业建设效益评价指标体系研究[J].水土保持研究, 2000, 7 (3): 243-247.
[60]袁志发,周静芋主编.试验设计与分析[M].北京:科学出版社, 2002, 128-138.
[61]林杰斌,林川雄,刘明德,等著. SPSS12.0统计建模与应用实务[M].北京:中国铁道出版社, 2006, 383-423, 495-518.
[62]林海明,张文霖.主成分分析与因子分析详细的异同和SPSS软件[J].统计研究, 2005(3): 65-69.
[63]鲁欣,秦大庸,刘俊,等.宁夏粮食产量主要影响因子分析[J].灌溉排水学报, 2006, 25(6): 65-70.
[64]郭满才,王继军,彭珂珊,等.纸坊沟流域生态经济系统演变阶段及其驱动力初探[J].水土保持研究, 2005, 12(4): 245-246, 255.
[65]刘明,刘淳,王克林.洞庭湖流域生态安全状态变化及其驱动力分析[J].生态学杂志, 2007, 26(8): 1271-1276.
[66]于秀林,任雪松.多元统计分析[M].北京:中国统计出版, 1999.
[67]何晓群.多元统计分析[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社, 2004.
[68]孟生旺.用主成分分析法进行多指标综合评价应注意的问题[J].统计研究, 1992(4).
[69]陈平雁,黄浙明. SPSS10.0统计软件应用教程[M].人民军医出版社, 2002.
[70]李朝旗,李朝赟,刘沛.基于主成分分析的区域可持续发展能力评价—以江苏省为例[J].开发研究, 2009(1):64-67.
[71]罗积玉,邢英.经济统计分析方法及预测[M].北京:清华大学出版社, 1987.
[72]游家兴.如何正确运用因子分析法进行综合评价[J].统计教育, 2003, 5: 10-11.
[73]朱丽,张仁陟.甘肃省城市人居环境评价与分析[J].现代农业科技, 2008, (6): 193-195.
[74]唐启义,冯明光.实用统计分析及其DPS数据处理系统[M].北京:科学出版社, 2002.
[75]郭滨,毕玉芬,龙光强,等.不同植被恢复措施下退化灌草丛草地土壤理化性状的评价[J].云南农业大学学报, 2008,23(2): 195～199.
[76]陶金,付梅臣,田迪,等.矿业城市生态足迹变化及驱动力分析[J].中国矿业, 2009, 18(2): 44-47.
[77]刘晓辉,吕宪国.湿地生态系统服务功能变化的驱动力分析[J].干旱区资源与环境, 2009, 23(1): 24-28.
[78]李崇明,丁烈云.小城镇资源环境与社会经济协调发展评价模型及应用研究[J].系统工程理论与实践, 2004,(11): 134-144.
[79]乔标,方创琳.城市化与生态环境协调发展的动态耦合模型及其在干旱区的应用[J].生态学报, 2005, 25 (11) : 3003～3009.
[80]吴跃明,张子晰,郎东锋.新型环境经济协调度预测模型及应用[J].南京大学学报, 1999, 32(3): 467-473.
[81]吴大进,曹力,陈立华.协同学原理和应用[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社, 1990: 9-17.
[82]廖晓昕.稳定性的理论、方法和应用[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社, 1999.
[83]Ebara N R. D of coal utilization technology in Japan[J], Fuel Processing Technology, 2000, 62: 143- 151.
[84]Bretz E A. Clean coal technologies: A status report [J]. Electrical World, 1992, (2):37- 42.
[85]范维唐.发展符合我国煤炭开发利用特点的洁净煤技术[J].煤矿环境保护, 1995(3): 2-7.
[86]冯.贝塔兰菲.一般系统论[M].北京:科学文献出版社, 1987.
[87]徐学荣,吴祖建,张巨勇,等.可持续发展通道及预警研究[J].数学的实践与认识, 2003, 33(2): 31-37.
[88]曹利军.可持续发展评价理论与方法[M].北京:科学出版社, 1999, 56-57, 72, 118-182.
[89]曾建权.层次分析法在确定企业家评价指标权重中的应用[J].南京理工大学学报, 2004, 2 (1): 99-104.
[90]王继军.黄土丘陵区纸坊沟流域农业生态经济安全评价[J].中国水土保持科学, 2008, 6(4): 109-113.
[91]高长波,陈新庚,韦朝海,等.广东省生态安全状态及趋势定量评价[J].生态学报, 2006, 26 (7): 2191-2197.
[92]汤洁,李海毅,斯蔼.吉林省通榆县近20年农业可持续发展的生态安全[J].农业现代化研究, 2007, 1 (1): 75-78.
[93]王振祥,朱晓东,石磊,等.安徽省沿淮地区生态安全评价模型和指标体系[J].应用生态学报, 2006, 17 (12): 2431-2435.
[94]杨时民,李玉文,吕玉哲.扎龙湿地生态安全评价指标体系研究[J].林业科学, 2006, 42(5): 127-131.
[95]何琼.巢湖流域生态安全的综合评价研究[D].合肥:合肥工业大学硕士学位论文, 2004.
[96]李智国.中国西南边疆山区社会经济与资源环境耦合态势分析—以云南省为例[J].开发研究, 2008(1): 59-63.
[97]贾士靖,刘银仓,邢明军.基于耦合模型的区域农业生态环境与经济协调发展研究[J].农业现代化研究, 2008, 29(5): 573-575.
[98]赵星.贵阳市乌当区生态—经济系统耦合关系研究[J].贵州师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2006, 24(3): 111-115.
[99]黄金川,方创琳.城市化与生态环境交互耦合机制与规律性分析[J].地理研究, 2003, 22(2): 211～220.
[100]杨殿林,王农,乌云格日勒.农牧辐合生态农业发展对策与建议[J].黑龙江畜牧兽医, 2007(11): 1-3.
[101]姚蓉,延军平.陕北地区生态与经济互动发展初探[J].绿色经济, 2007,(8): 55-62.
[102]吴玉鸣,张燕.中国区域经济增长与环境的耦合协调发展研究[J].资源科学, 2008, 30(1): 25-30
[103]李芬.黄土丘陵区纸坊沟流域农业生态安全评估[D].西北农林科技大学硕士学位论文, 2008.
[104]刘佳,王继军.黄土丘陵区纸坊沟流域农业生态系统和经济系统的互动关系[J].应用生态学报, 2009, 20(6).