基于双对数线性模型的中国入境旅游需求影响因素研究
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摘要
入境旅游是旅游业的重要组成部分,在外汇收入、经济建设和形象宣传等方面发挥着重要作用。针对目前中国入境旅游发展要求,本文运用旅游经济学理论和计量经济学的方法系统研究了中国入境旅游发展历程、入境游客的消费行为特征,构建入境旅游需求的定量模型,提出了扩大入境旅游需求的相应对策。
本文主要研究内容和结论包括:
(1)研究了中国入境旅游的发展历程,总结了旅游业发展阶段及其特征。研究认为,中国入境旅游正处在全面发展时期,具有明显的阶段性和波动性;入境旅游需求具有不稳定性,容易受突发事件和重大事件的影响;客源国市场份额呈现集中化态势,客源市场具有较强的成长性。
(2)研究了中国入境旅游的游客消费行为特征、入境旅游发展的区域不均衡性。研究认为,入境旅游与游客的其他活动具有密切关系,观光休闲、商务会议、探亲访友是导致入境旅游的主要活动。中国入境旅游发展存在着区域不均衡性,并用基尼系数表示这种不均衡性,为制定产业布局政策提供依据。
(3)基于双对数线型模型和面板数据方法,构建了中国入境旅游需求影响因素的实证模型。研究认为,在某个客源国个体游客偏好一定的潜在假设下,入境旅游需求是基于宏观经济指标和偶然性非经济因素共同作用的结果。就中国入境旅游而言,影响入境旅游需求的因素包括:客源国收入水平、汇率、相对消费水平等宏观经济变量,以及亚洲金融危机、SARS和奥运会等非经济因素。双对数线型模型和面板数据方法的使用,能够反映入境旅游需求影响因素之间的经济含义和内在机理关系。各自变量系数作为其对需求的弹性值,能够解释各变量对需求的作用强度;换言之,能够反映出需求对于各变量变动的敏感性。
(4)实证研究了美国、日本、韩国、俄罗斯、澳大利亚、马来西亚和英国7个主要客源国的入境旅游需求对本国宏观经济变量和相关重大事件或突发事件的敏感程度。研究发现:在中国入境旅游需求影响因素中,入境旅游需求对于客源国人均GDP变量的敏感性最强。美国、日本、英国的CPI与该国对中国入境旅游需求呈现负相关,存在收入效应。相对汇率对于其中国入境旅游需求也存在不同的作用效果。重大事件及突发事件对各客源国的中国入境旅游需求的影响具有普遍性和区域性。
(5)研究了扩大中国入境旅游需求的对策。针对客源国宏观经济运行状态、旅游产业政策内涵、重大事件与危机事件的处理以及入境旅游消费策略诸方面研究提出了扩大入境旅游需求对策。
本文的主要创新包括:
第一、采用基尼系数统计分析方法,测度了中国入境旅游发展的区域不均衡性。
第二、采用双对数线性模型和面板数据分析方法对中国入境旅游的影响因素进行了实证研究;研究提出,在某个客源国个体游客偏好给定的潜在假设下,入境旅游需求是基于宏观经济指标和偶然性非经济因素共同作用的结果。
第三、基于双对数线性模型和面板数据的方法,能反映入境旅游需求影响因素之间的经济含义和内在机理关系。定量地分析了汇率、CPI、人均收入以及突发事件、重大事件(SARS、亚洲金融危机、奥运会等)对中国入境旅游业的影响;各自变量系数作为其对需求的弹性值,能够反映出需求对于各变量变动的敏感性。
Inbound tourism is one of the import components of tourism. It makes contributions in foreign exchange reservation, economy development, and image publicizing. According to the requirements of China tourism, this paper adopts the tourism economics and econometrics theory to research the development history and characters of consumption, and to build a quantitative tourism demand model. Also, this paper gives out the corresponding policy proposals.
The main contents and results of this paper are:
(1) This paper studies the tourism history, summarizes the characters of different stages. This paper found that China tourism is in a full developing period, it can be divided into different stages, it is very vulnerable, and can be influenced by unexpected and big events. Almost all the tourists are from major guest countries, and the number of guests is expanding.
(2) This paper studies the characters of consumption and disequilibrium over provinces. This paper finds that the tourism itself has strong correlation with other behaviors. Sightseeing, business affairs, visiting families are major activities. The inbound tourism is not in equilibrium status over provinces, this paper uses GINI coefficient to measure the disequilibrium. This will provide some indication of policy making.
(3) Based on the double-log linear regression and panel data method, this paper build up a tourism demand model. Under the assumption of tourists from certain guest country have certain preferences; the demand of tourism is influenced by the macroeconomic index, unexpected and big events. As far as China inbound tourism is concerned, the determinants are per capital income, exchange rate, consumer price index, Asia financial crises, and SARS. The double-log linear regression and panel data method can reflect the inner mechanism among influencing factors. The meaning of coefficients is elasticity, and can explain the how much the influence will be. In another word, this will give out the demand sensitivities over determinants.
(4) The paper studies the demand sensitivities over determinants for America, Japan, Korea, Russia, Australia, Malaysia, and Great British. Among all the influencing factors, the per capital income is the most sensitive one. As far as Japan, USA and Great British concerned, consumer price index is negatively related with tourism demand, there exists an income infect. The exchange rate effect varies over different guest countries. Big and unexpected events have general and regional effects on China tourism demand.
(5) This paper studies the tourism demand expanding policy. According to the microeconomy, tourism industry policy, unexpected events, and the strategy of tourist consumption, this paper gives out some tourism demand expending proposals.
The contributions of this paper are:
First, this paper uses the GINI coefficient to study the disequilibrium over provinces;
Second, using the double-log linear regression and panel data method, this paper build up one experience research model for tourism demand. Under the assumption of tourists from certain guest country have certain preferences, the demand of tourism is influenced by macroeconomic index and unexpected big events.
Third, the double-log linear model and panel data method can reflect the inner mechanism among influencing factors. This paper measures the influences of Exchange Rate, CPI, Per Capital Income, SARS, Olympic Games, and Asia Crises quantitatively. The meaning of coefficients is elasticity; this will give out the demand sensitivities over determinants.
本文主要研究内容和结论包括:
(1)研究了中国入境旅游的发展历程,总结了旅游业发展阶段及其特征。研究认为,中国入境旅游正处在全面发展时期,具有明显的阶段性和波动性;入境旅游需求具有不稳定性,容易受突发事件和重大事件的影响;客源国市场份额呈现集中化态势,客源市场具有较强的成长性。
(2)研究了中国入境旅游的游客消费行为特征、入境旅游发展的区域不均衡性。研究认为,入境旅游与游客的其他活动具有密切关系,观光休闲、商务会议、探亲访友是导致入境旅游的主要活动。中国入境旅游发展存在着区域不均衡性,并用基尼系数表示这种不均衡性,为制定产业布局政策提供依据。
(3)基于双对数线型模型和面板数据方法,构建了中国入境旅游需求影响因素的实证模型。研究认为,在某个客源国个体游客偏好一定的潜在假设下,入境旅游需求是基于宏观经济指标和偶然性非经济因素共同作用的结果。就中国入境旅游而言,影响入境旅游需求的因素包括:客源国收入水平、汇率、相对消费水平等宏观经济变量,以及亚洲金融危机、SARS和奥运会等非经济因素。双对数线型模型和面板数据方法的使用,能够反映入境旅游需求影响因素之间的经济含义和内在机理关系。各自变量系数作为其对需求的弹性值,能够解释各变量对需求的作用强度;换言之,能够反映出需求对于各变量变动的敏感性。
(4)实证研究了美国、日本、韩国、俄罗斯、澳大利亚、马来西亚和英国7个主要客源国的入境旅游需求对本国宏观经济变量和相关重大事件或突发事件的敏感程度。研究发现:在中国入境旅游需求影响因素中,入境旅游需求对于客源国人均GDP变量的敏感性最强。美国、日本、英国的CPI与该国对中国入境旅游需求呈现负相关,存在收入效应。相对汇率对于其中国入境旅游需求也存在不同的作用效果。重大事件及突发事件对各客源国的中国入境旅游需求的影响具有普遍性和区域性。
(5)研究了扩大中国入境旅游需求的对策。针对客源国宏观经济运行状态、旅游产业政策内涵、重大事件与危机事件的处理以及入境旅游消费策略诸方面研究提出了扩大入境旅游需求对策。
本文的主要创新包括:
第一、采用基尼系数统计分析方法,测度了中国入境旅游发展的区域不均衡性。
第二、采用双对数线性模型和面板数据分析方法对中国入境旅游的影响因素进行了实证研究;研究提出,在某个客源国个体游客偏好给定的潜在假设下,入境旅游需求是基于宏观经济指标和偶然性非经济因素共同作用的结果。
第三、基于双对数线性模型和面板数据的方法,能反映入境旅游需求影响因素之间的经济含义和内在机理关系。定量地分析了汇率、CPI、人均收入以及突发事件、重大事件(SARS、亚洲金融危机、奥运会等)对中国入境旅游业的影响;各自变量系数作为其对需求的弹性值,能够反映出需求对于各变量变动的敏感性。
Inbound tourism is one of the import components of tourism. It makes contributions in foreign exchange reservation, economy development, and image publicizing. According to the requirements of China tourism, this paper adopts the tourism economics and econometrics theory to research the development history and characters of consumption, and to build a quantitative tourism demand model. Also, this paper gives out the corresponding policy proposals.
The main contents and results of this paper are:
(1) This paper studies the tourism history, summarizes the characters of different stages. This paper found that China tourism is in a full developing period, it can be divided into different stages, it is very vulnerable, and can be influenced by unexpected and big events. Almost all the tourists are from major guest countries, and the number of guests is expanding.
(2) This paper studies the characters of consumption and disequilibrium over provinces. This paper finds that the tourism itself has strong correlation with other behaviors. Sightseeing, business affairs, visiting families are major activities. The inbound tourism is not in equilibrium status over provinces, this paper uses GINI coefficient to measure the disequilibrium. This will provide some indication of policy making.
(3) Based on the double-log linear regression and panel data method, this paper build up a tourism demand model. Under the assumption of tourists from certain guest country have certain preferences; the demand of tourism is influenced by the macroeconomic index, unexpected and big events. As far as China inbound tourism is concerned, the determinants are per capital income, exchange rate, consumer price index, Asia financial crises, and SARS. The double-log linear regression and panel data method can reflect the inner mechanism among influencing factors. The meaning of coefficients is elasticity, and can explain the how much the influence will be. In another word, this will give out the demand sensitivities over determinants.
(4) The paper studies the demand sensitivities over determinants for America, Japan, Korea, Russia, Australia, Malaysia, and Great British. Among all the influencing factors, the per capital income is the most sensitive one. As far as Japan, USA and Great British concerned, consumer price index is negatively related with tourism demand, there exists an income infect. The exchange rate effect varies over different guest countries. Big and unexpected events have general and regional effects on China tourism demand.
(5) This paper studies the tourism demand expanding policy. According to the microeconomy, tourism industry policy, unexpected events, and the strategy of tourist consumption, this paper gives out some tourism demand expending proposals.
The contributions of this paper are:
First, this paper uses the GINI coefficient to study the disequilibrium over provinces;
Second, using the double-log linear regression and panel data method, this paper build up one experience research model for tourism demand. Under the assumption of tourists from certain guest country have certain preferences, the demand of tourism is influenced by macroeconomic index and unexpected big events.
Third, the double-log linear model and panel data method can reflect the inner mechanism among influencing factors. This paper measures the influences of Exchange Rate, CPI, Per Capital Income, SARS, Olympic Games, and Asia Crises quantitatively. The meaning of coefficients is elasticity; this will give out the demand sensitivities over determinants.
引文
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