中国内地商品房预售制度实施的经济效应研究
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摘要
20世纪80年代末,内地城市开始借鉴香港房地产市场“卖楼花”之经验,引进商品房预售制度。此后十余年,预售制度对中国内地房地产业发展起到了重要的推动作用：一方面帮助开发商提高资金使用效率、降低开发成本,另一方面也满足了消费者对商品房的需求。然而,由于其自身存在的一些缺陷以及管理机制的问题,近年来,预售制度也遭遇到大量的质疑和指责。本文从经济学视角对中国内地商品房预售制度实施的经济效应进行了较为全面的分析：首先,以新制度经济学的原理为分析工具,归纳商品房预售制度的制度属性。其次,基于正、负经济效应的角度对预售制度在内地的实践进行规范性分析,同时,通过数据包络分析法(DEA)和广义自回归条件异方差模型(GARCH Model)对预售制度运行的经济效应进行实证分析。再次,审视当前预售制度在世界范围内运行的基本情况,从预售资格、定金比率、监管办法等方面进行比较,归纳总结出内地预售制改革值得借鉴的外部经验。在前三个主要部分的基础上,就内地商品房预售制度的未来发展提出相关的政策建议。
Learning from the experience of uncompleted real estate business model in Hong Kong real estate, many cities in mainland China brought in the pre-sales housing system in the late 1980s. In the following decades, the pre-sales housing system had played an important role in the development of real estate in China. On one hand, the pre-sales housing system helped the real estate developers enhance their capital-using efficiency and reduce the costs of real estate development. On the other hand, the pre-sales housing system also satisfied the consumers'need for commercial residential buildings. However, because of its inner defects management mechanism, the pre-sales system has been confronted by the public's doubt and denunciation in recent years.
From the economic perspective, this paper does a comprehensive research on economic effects of the pre-sales system's implementation in China's commercial residential buildings in four steps:
Firstly, on the basis of systematic analysis of related literatures on the pre-sales system in commercial residential buildings, this paper uses new institutional economics theories as an analytic tool to ascertain and summarize the pre-sales system's implementary premises in real estate market. Secondly, based on the review of the historical development of the pre-sales system in China's commercial residential buildings, this paper also makes a normative analysis on the positive and negative effects of the pre-sales system's implementary process in China. On the meanwhile, it tries to make an empirical analysis on the economic effects of pre-sales system by Data Envelopment Analysis and GARCH model. Thirdly, through exploring the pre-sales system's worldwide implementation performance, this paper also makes a comparison of pre-sales qualifications, down payment ratio and regulations. Finally, according to the previous theoretical analysis and empirical results, this paper puts forward related policies and suggestions for the further development of the pre-sales housing system in China.
Learning from the experience of uncompleted real estate business model in Hong Kong real estate, many cities in mainland China brought in the pre-sales housing system in the late 1980s. In the following decades, the pre-sales housing system had played an important role in the development of real estate in China. On one hand, the pre-sales housing system helped the real estate developers enhance their capital-using efficiency and reduce the costs of real estate development. On the other hand, the pre-sales housing system also satisfied the consumers'need for commercial residential buildings. However, because of its inner defects management mechanism, the pre-sales system has been confronted by the public's doubt and denunciation in recent years.
From the economic perspective, this paper does a comprehensive research on economic effects of the pre-sales system's implementation in China's commercial residential buildings in four steps:
Firstly, on the basis of systematic analysis of related literatures on the pre-sales system in commercial residential buildings, this paper uses new institutional economics theories as an analytic tool to ascertain and summarize the pre-sales system's implementary premises in real estate market. Secondly, based on the review of the historical development of the pre-sales system in China's commercial residential buildings, this paper also makes a normative analysis on the positive and negative effects of the pre-sales system's implementary process in China. On the meanwhile, it tries to make an empirical analysis on the economic effects of pre-sales system by Data Envelopment Analysis and GARCH model. Thirdly, through exploring the pre-sales system's worldwide implementation performance, this paper also makes a comparison of pre-sales qualifications, down payment ratio and regulations. Finally, according to the previous theoretical analysis and empirical results, this paper puts forward related policies and suggestions for the further development of the pre-sales housing system in China.
引文
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[9]周林彬,张永春.中国大陆、香港与澳门商品房预售法律制度比较研究[M].广州：中山大学出版社,2007,P23
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[11]周林彬,张永春.中国大陆、香港与澳门商品房预售法律制度比较研究[M].广州：中山大学出版社,2007,P173
[12]陈章喜,喻婷.澳门房地产业的经济效能及产业定位分析[J].亚太经济,2010(02),P146
[13]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模：Eviews应用及实例[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006,P173-194
[14]crste为不考虑规模收益时的技术效率,即综合效率；vrste为考虑规模收益时的技术效率,即纯技术效率；scale为考虑规模收益时的规模效率,即规模效率；纯技术效率和规模效率是对综合效率的细分,三者的数量关系为：crste=vrste X scale
[15]产出不足指标：S1+—商品房销售面积(亿平方米)；S2+—商品房销售额(亿元)S3+—国内生产总值(亿元)；投入冗余指标：S1-—定金和预收款(亿元)；S2-—新开发商品房面积(亿平方米)
[16]冯邦彦.香港地产业百年[M].香港：三联书店(香港)有限公司,2001,P65
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[19]田文.美国：商品房如何预售[J].中国地产市场,2006(3),P63
[20]同注[10],P12
[21]刘洪玉,王松涛.期房市场价格稳定效应分析及期房政策选择[J].城市问题,2006(06),P99
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[2]优先购买权是指通过预先登记,预购人取得了优先于其他人而购买特定商品房的权利。
[3]期待权是指可以成为当事人基于其己获得部分权利的构成要件的地位而享有的由合理期待所生之利益。
[4]段文斌,陈国富等.制度经济学——制度主义与经济分析[M].天津：南开大学出版社,2003,P169
[5]宋庭敏.我国商品房预售制度发展研究[J].财经问题研究,2006(01),P46-47
[6]郑瑞琨.房地产交易[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2007,P102
[7]于朝印.商品房预售法律制度研究[D].中国政法大学,2002,P4
[8]陶昌盛,叶芳.我国商品房预售制度改革模式探讨[J].金融纵横,2008(9),P16
[9]周林彬,张永春.中国大陆、香港与澳门商品房预售法律制度比较研究[M].广州：中山大学出版社,2007,P23
[10]廖俊平,谭颖.中国商品房预售制度研究[J/OL].中国房地产研究丛书之二十七,2006(12). http://www.realestate.cei.gov.cn/image/infopic/061226z,P6
[11]周林彬,张永春.中国大陆、香港与澳门商品房预售法律制度比较研究[M].广州：中山大学出版社,2007,P173
[12]陈章喜,喻婷.澳门房地产业的经济效能及产业定位分析[J].亚太经济,2010(02),P146
[13]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模：Eviews应用及实例[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006,P173-194
[14]crste为不考虑规模收益时的技术效率,即综合效率；vrste为考虑规模收益时的技术效率,即纯技术效率；scale为考虑规模收益时的规模效率,即规模效率；纯技术效率和规模效率是对综合效率的细分,三者的数量关系为：crste=vrste X scale
[15]产出不足指标：S1+—商品房销售面积(亿平方米)；S2+—商品房销售额(亿元)S3+—国内生产总值(亿元)；投入冗余指标：S1-—定金和预收款(亿元)；S2-—新开发商品房面积(亿平方米)
[16]冯邦彦.香港地产业百年[M].香港：三联书店(香港)有限公司,2001,P65
[17]易宪容,黄苑.住房预售制度国际比较研究[J].江苏社会科学,2007(3),P75
[18]锋晓.商品房预售制度的比较分析及政策建议[J].城市开发,2006(09),P22
[19]田文.美国：商品房如何预售[J].中国地产市场,2006(3),P63
[20]同注[10],P12
[21]刘洪玉,王松涛.期房市场价格稳定效应分析及期房政策选择[J].城市问题,2006(06),P99
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[2]David. M. Cutler, James M. Poterba, Lawrence H. Summers. Speculative Dynamics and the Role of Feedback Traders. American Economic Review,1990(2)
[3]Case. K. E, R. J. Shiller. Index-based Futures and Options Market in Real Estate. Journal of Portfolio Management,1993(3)
[4]Shih.K.Real Estate Pricing In A Forward Market.Journal Of Management And Science,1992, Vol.9
[5]S. K. Wong, C.Y. Yiu, M. K. Tse and K. W. Chan. Do the Forward Sales of Real Estate Stabilize Spot Price? Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,2005(3)
[6]Michael A Arnold. Search, Bargaining And Optimal Asking Prices.Real Estate Economics,1999, Vol.27, No.3
[7]Carl R Gwin,Seow-Eng Ong. Overcoming Adverse Selection In Buying An Existing Home. Journal Of Property Investment&Finance,2001, Vol.19, No.3
[8]Chang, C.O. And C.W.Ward. Forward Pricing And The Housing Market:The Pre-Sales Housing System In Taiwan. Journal Of Property Research,1993, Vol.10
[9]Grenadier,S.R. The Strategic Exercise Of Options:Development Cascades And Overbuilding In Real Estate Markets. Journal OfFinance,1996, Vol.51 No.5
[10]Seow-Eng Ong. Building Defects, Warranties And Project Financing From Pre-Completion Marketing. Journal of Property Finance,1997, Vol.8, No.1
[11]Seow-Eng Ong. Caveat Emptor:Adverse Selection In Buying Properties Under Construction. Property Management,1999, Vol.17, No.1
[12]Rose Neng, Ko Wang And Yuqing Zhou. Sale Before Completion Development:Pricing And Strategy. The Real Estate Economics,2004, Vol.32, No.2
[13]建设部.城市商品房预售管理办法[Z].1994
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