投资者教育与权益保护研究
摘要
本文从全球股灾的教训及近年来我国证券投资者生存现状出发,从理论和实践两个角度论述了加强投资者教育以提高我国投资者在投资过程中的自我保护能力的重要性;采用调查问卷的方法,从投资者的知识、心理、行为三个构面,从入市动机、证券投资知识、风险意识、投资理念、交易行为、投资决策依据及投资业绩等七个影响因素来考察了我国投资者的投资行为;针对这些投资者的行为特征,从情感心理偏差、社会心理偏差和认知心理偏差三个构面,从过度自信、损失厌恶、保守性偏差、过度恐惧、选择性偏差、赌博心理与自我归因、对政策的依赖性偏差以及暴富心理等影响因素出发对我国投资者的认知偏差,以及产生这些偏差的原因进行了分析,探讨了投资者在投资决策时的几个约束条件,即信息约束、知识约束、心理约束、资金约束以及外部条件约束。
在对我国投资者认知偏差进行调查分析的基础上,本文对投资者信心、投资者行为与投资者教育三者之间的关系进行了分析,并建立了一个关系模型;以此为基础,本文对我国政府主导的投资者教育及其权益保护的效率进行了一项事件研究,实证分析了当前政府主导的投资者教育模式与投资者权益保护效率的关系,并对其成因进行了辨析。并在此基础上,利用股价信息含量和投资者理性测度数据,对我国投资者教育的效果进行了实证分析。
然后,在对成熟市场投资者教育和权益保护经验进行分析的基础上,本文探讨了成熟市场投资者教育体系及其投资者权益保护机制带给我们的启示。以此为基础,本文从组织体系和方法论两个方面探讨了如何加强我国投资者教育和权益保护的问题。在投资者教育组织方面,需要通过构建一个多层次的投资者教育体系,将有偿教育与义务教育结合起来,以满足不同投资者的需要;在投资者教育的方法论方面,需要在教育手段、教育内容和教育形式和手段等方面进行改进,针对不同投资者需求的特点,丰富投资者教育内容,创新教育形式,积极探索采用生动活泼、通俗易懂、寓教于乐的形式开展各项教育活动。
Starting from the lessons of the global stock market crash and the survival status of China's securities investors in recent years,this paper discusses the importance of investor education to strengthen their self-protection from both theoretical and practical points of view. Then we study investors' behavour in China by using the questionnaire method from three dimensions—investor's knowledge,psychology and behavior and from seven affecting factors—motive,securities investment Knowledge,awareness of risk,investment philosophy,trading,investment decision-making rule and investment performance.Aiming at these investment characteristics we examines the conservative bias and the reasons for the deviation from mental deviation from the emotional,social psychology and cognitive psychology deviation and from over-confidence,loss aversion,conservatism aversion, excessive fear of selective bias,selecting aversion,gambling psychology,self-attribution,the dependence on the policy bias and rapid money-making psychology.And we analyze investors' several restrictive conditions during investment decision-making including information and knowledge constraints,psychological constraints,funds constraints and external conditions.
On the basis of diagnosing analysis of China's investors cognitive bias,this paper analyzes the relationship among investor confidence,investor behaoviour and investor education,and establishes their relationship model;and then this paper makes a event study on the relation between China's government-led investor education and the efficiency of protecting investor's interests which empirically analyzes of the protection of the rights and interests of investors efficiency;furtherly,this paper discriminates the causes of the situation. On the basis of the ananlysis,the thesis makes an empirical analysis on the effect of investor's education by using of the information content model of stock.
Then,on the basis of ananlyzing their experience of overseas investor education and their equity protection,this paper discusses the inspiration from overseas investor rights protection mechanisms.Then,this paper probes into the topics of how to strengthen our investor education and protection of their equity issue from the organization system and methodology.In investor education organization,we need to build a multi-level investor education system including a combination of compensatory education and compulsory education which will meet the needs of different investors.In the methodology of investor education,the investor education means,educational contents and forms of education need to be improved.For different investor demands and characteristics,rich content and innovative forms of education,and a lively,accessible,entertaining education activities should be explored.
在对我国投资者认知偏差进行调查分析的基础上,本文对投资者信心、投资者行为与投资者教育三者之间的关系进行了分析,并建立了一个关系模型;以此为基础,本文对我国政府主导的投资者教育及其权益保护的效率进行了一项事件研究,实证分析了当前政府主导的投资者教育模式与投资者权益保护效率的关系,并对其成因进行了辨析。并在此基础上,利用股价信息含量和投资者理性测度数据,对我国投资者教育的效果进行了实证分析。
然后,在对成熟市场投资者教育和权益保护经验进行分析的基础上,本文探讨了成熟市场投资者教育体系及其投资者权益保护机制带给我们的启示。以此为基础,本文从组织体系和方法论两个方面探讨了如何加强我国投资者教育和权益保护的问题。在投资者教育组织方面,需要通过构建一个多层次的投资者教育体系,将有偿教育与义务教育结合起来,以满足不同投资者的需要;在投资者教育的方法论方面,需要在教育手段、教育内容和教育形式和手段等方面进行改进,针对不同投资者需求的特点,丰富投资者教育内容,创新教育形式,积极探索采用生动活泼、通俗易懂、寓教于乐的形式开展各项教育活动。
Starting from the lessons of the global stock market crash and the survival status of China's securities investors in recent years,this paper discusses the importance of investor education to strengthen their self-protection from both theoretical and practical points of view. Then we study investors' behavour in China by using the questionnaire method from three dimensions—investor's knowledge,psychology and behavior and from seven affecting factors—motive,securities investment Knowledge,awareness of risk,investment philosophy,trading,investment decision-making rule and investment performance.Aiming at these investment characteristics we examines the conservative bias and the reasons for the deviation from mental deviation from the emotional,social psychology and cognitive psychology deviation and from over-confidence,loss aversion,conservatism aversion, excessive fear of selective bias,selecting aversion,gambling psychology,self-attribution,the dependence on the policy bias and rapid money-making psychology.And we analyze investors' several restrictive conditions during investment decision-making including information and knowledge constraints,psychological constraints,funds constraints and external conditions.
On the basis of diagnosing analysis of China's investors cognitive bias,this paper analyzes the relationship among investor confidence,investor behaoviour and investor education,and establishes their relationship model;and then this paper makes a event study on the relation between China's government-led investor education and the efficiency of protecting investor's interests which empirically analyzes of the protection of the rights and interests of investors efficiency;furtherly,this paper discriminates the causes of the situation. On the basis of the ananlysis,the thesis makes an empirical analysis on the effect of investor's education by using of the information content model of stock.
Then,on the basis of ananlyzing their experience of overseas investor education and their equity protection,this paper discusses the inspiration from overseas investor rights protection mechanisms.Then,this paper probes into the topics of how to strengthen our investor education and protection of their equity issue from the organization system and methodology.In investor education organization,we need to build a multi-level investor education system including a combination of compensatory education and compulsory education which will meet the needs of different investors.In the methodology of investor education,the investor education means,educational contents and forms of education need to be improved.For different investor demands and characteristics,rich content and innovative forms of education,and a lively,accessible,entertaining education activities should be explored.
引文
1 中国证券登记结算公司网站.http://www.chinaclear.cn.
2 新浪财经网站.http://finance.sina.com.cn.
3 中证网.www.cs.com.cn.
4 和讯网.http://www.hexun.com/.
5 《大众理财顾问》网站.www.popfinancing.com.cn.
6 中国证监会网站 www.csrc.gov.cn/
7 John Kenneth Galbraith.The Great Crash 1929.Mariner Books.1997.
8 关于本文投资者教育的界定请见1.2.1
9 这些国家(地区)按照气商业法典的起源分为四类:英国法系以普通法为基础;其他三个法系都是从大陆法系中发展起来的但是经过某些变化形成法国法系、德国法系和斯堪的纳维亚法系。
10 史树中.数学于经济,湖南教育出版社,1990
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13 同上。
14[奥]A.哈邪克.个人主义与经济秩序.北京经济学院出版社,1991
15 王冀宁、李心丹、刘玉灿.基于信号传递博弈的中国股票投资者的学习机制研究.数量经济技术经济研究,2004(9)
16 本文所指的投资者成熟度,是指投资者在具备充分的投资知识和经验的基础上,理性分析市场和正确进行投资决策的程度。
17 贺卫.1999.寻租经济学.中国发展出版社.
18 文淑惠.投资者利益保护研究——基于新兴证券市场的理论分析.上海财经大学博士论文.2006.
19 在个人投资者中,也有少部分人投资金额较大。他们在信息搜寻上,也会采取一些类似机构投资者的方式,比如到上市公司进行实地调研,雇佣咨询人员进行专业分析等。但是鉴于这部分投资者在个人投资者中比例较小,所以在本文中暂不考虑。
20 从理论上讲,任何投资者都不具备完全的预测信息真实性的能力。但是机构投资者作为专业投资者,我们可以假定他们获取真实信息与预测信息真实性的能力要超过个人投资者。
21 祈斌、王欧.我国资本市场与世界成熟资本市场的主要差距.2007.中国证监会网站.
22 资料来源www.nyse.com.
23 资料来源www.hkex.com.hk.
24 郭晔.中国证券监管制度的换位思考.经济科学,2004(3):27-34
25 在在经济学中,理性是指在信息完全与信息对称的条件下,经济行为体能够做出最优决策。证券 市场是信息不完全的市场,在上市公司与投资者之间,在大投资者与个人投资者之间都存在信息小对称的情况。本文中,证券市场投资者的理性指投资者能够获取真实信息或具备预测信息真实性的能力,并在此基础上进行最优投资决策。而非理性是指投资者不能获取真实信息或不具备预测信息真实性的能力。
26 Mathew Q.Jackson.1991.Equilibruim,Price Formation,and the Value of Private Information.The Review of Financial Studies,Vol.4,No.l,pp.l-16.Jackson证实了在不完全竞争条件下,完全揭示信息的均衡价格与交易者愿意收集有成本的私人信息这两件事有同时存在的可能性。
27 5埃德加·彼得斯.资本市场的混沌与秩序.中译本.经济科学出版社..1999.
28 Barberis Nicholas,Andrei Shleifer and Robert Vishney.A Model of Investor Sentiment.Working Paper,University of Chicago.1996.
29 本部分内容主要参考莫迪利亚尼.1999.资本市场:机构与工具.中译本.经济科学出版社.
30 Merton,Robert.1973.The Asset Pricing Model of Duration.Econometrica.Vol.9.P867-888.
31 Daniel Kent,David nirshleifer and Avanidhar Subrahmanyam.Investor Psychology and Security Market Under-and over-Reaction.Journal of Finance.1998.
32 同27.
33 布莱克.噪声交易.帕尔格雷夫经济学辞典英文版.中册.1986.
34 德龙.积极反馈投资战略与加剧不稳定的理性投资.财金杂志,1990,(2).
35 Kyle.1985.Continuous Auction and Insider Trading.Econometrica.53.P1315.
36 凯恩斯.就业、利息与货币通论.商务出版社.1986.
37 李心丹.国外金融体系风险理论综述.经济学动态.1998(1).
38 埃德加·彼得斯.资本市场的混沌与秩序.中译本.经济科学出版社.1999.
39 Hong H,Stein J;A Unified Theory of Under-Reaction,Momentum Trading,and Overreaction in Asset Markets[J][M];Journal of Finance;1999.
40 Barberis,Nicholas,Richard Thaler;A Survey of Behavioral Finance[A][M];Handbook of the Economics of Finance;2003.
41 赵德武等.不完善市场条件下的投资者行为与风险资本特性.教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目《基于衍生金融工具的公司投融资研究》(项目批准号:02JAZJD790027).
42 同注释38。
43 刘力.行为金融理论对效率市场假说的挑战.经济科学.1999,(3).
44 同上
45 刘力.行为金融理论对效率市场假说的挑战.经济科学.1999,(3).
46 中证网,2008—1—12。
47 彭迎春、常文虎、沈艳红.如何测量问卷的信度.中华医院管理杂志.2004,(6).
48 韩少梅等.学校—社会行为量表的信度和效度.基础医学与临床,2006,(7).
49 曾五一、黄炳艺.调查问卷的可信度和有效度分析.统计与信息论坛,2005,(6).
50 资料来源:www.sia.com.
51 王烜.中国股市波动特性、政策市成因与政府有效干预机制研究.湖南大学博士论文.2005)
52 这里的“消费”指消费者可自由决定的购买(discretionary purchase)。关键在于这种消费可以被推迟,如房屋、汽车、家庭用具等大的耐用消费品以及如贷款购买等,这些都是相对不那么频繁的大宗购买,属于典型的计划性购买——非常依赖于消费者对他们未来经济形势的预期。
53 Behavioral Macroeconomics主张宏观经济现象是个决策的集合。现在这一研究领域已经成为研究的热点,其研究者中不乏象George A.Akerlof,Robert J.Shiller这样的大师。
54 陶国富.消费行为心理学.立信会计出版社,2003.
55 资料来源www.stat-usa.gov.
56 消费者预期指数已经被列入美国商务部经济分析署发表的最主要综合预示指标之中(Leading Indicator Composite Index published by the U.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of Economic Analysis),这充分证明这一指标有助于对国家经济变化的理解和预测。最主要综合指标的遴选基于各种指标在六个重要特征上的表现:经济重要性、统计准确性、与经济周期峰谷在时间上的一致性.与经济扩张与紧缩的相符性、平滑性、以及及时的实用性。迄今没有其他消费者调查能够满足这些严格的标准。
57 如前所述,在我国,投资者的信心和投资行为还受到“政策”因素的重要影响。
58 鲁直、施欢欢.证券市场投资者信心指数刍议.证券市场导报.2003,(8).
59 张圣平.偏好、信息、信念与证券价格.上海三联书店、上海人民出版社,2006.
60 谭加洲.行为金融与投资者信心.青岛大学硕士论文,2005.
61 卢华.制度变迁与投资者行为——对中国股票市场的实证研究.上海财经大学出版社,2006.
62 资料来源:中国证监会网站www.csrc.gov.cn.
63 资料来源:上海证券交易所网站www.sse.com.cn.
64 资料来源:中国证监会网站www.csrc.gov.cn.
65 资料来源:深圳证券交易所网站www.szse.com.cn.
66 资料来源:中证网www.cs.com.cn.
67 资料来源:上海证券交易所网站www.sse.com.cn.
68 袁秀国、施光耀等.中国证券市场投资者教育报告.www.cs.com.cn.2007-6-4.
69 资料来源:深圳证券交易所网站www.szse.com.cn.
70 资料来源:中国证券业协会网站www.sac.net.cn.
71 资料来源:中国证券报网站www.cnstock.com.
72 本部分内容较多来自深交所网站,www.szse.cn.
73 资料来源:德意志交易所集团网站deutsche-boerse.com.
74 资料来源:http://www.ceconline.com/
75 江洲、谢赤.中国股市“政策市”形成机理及对策研究.求索,2007(8)
76 资料来源:www.szse.cn.
77 东京证券交易所网站,www.tse.or.jp.
78 中国证券投资者保护网.www.sipf.com.cn.
79 同上.
80 纳斯达克证券交易所网站,www.nasdaq.com.
81 中国证券投资者保护网.www.sipf.com.cn.
82 中证网,www.cs.com.cn.
83 经济合作与发展组织(OECD)官方网站,www.oecdchina.org.
83 http://online.wsj.com/public/us
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巨潮网
中国证券投资者保护网
日本银行网站
上海证券报网站
上海证券交易所网站
深圳证券交易所网站
台湾证券暨期货管理委员会全球资讯网。
英格兰银行网站
中国期刊网
中国新世纪读书网
中国证监会网站
中国证券报网站
2 新浪财经网站.http://finance.sina.com.cn.
3 中证网.www.cs.com.cn.
4 和讯网.http://www.hexun.com/.
5 《大众理财顾问》网站.www.popfinancing.com.cn.
6 中国证监会网站 www.csrc.gov.cn/
7 John Kenneth Galbraith.The Great Crash 1929.Mariner Books.1997.
8 关于本文投资者教育的界定请见1.2.1
9 这些国家(地区)按照气商业法典的起源分为四类:英国法系以普通法为基础;其他三个法系都是从大陆法系中发展起来的但是经过某些变化形成法国法系、德国法系和斯堪的纳维亚法系。
10 史树中.数学于经济,湖南教育出版社,1990
11 何大安.选择行为的理性与非理性融合.上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,2006.
12 张圣平.偏好、信息、信念与证券价格.上海三联书店、上海人民出版社,2006.
13 同上。
14[奥]A.哈邪克.个人主义与经济秩序.北京经济学院出版社,1991
15 王冀宁、李心丹、刘玉灿.基于信号传递博弈的中国股票投资者的学习机制研究.数量经济技术经济研究,2004(9)
16 本文所指的投资者成熟度,是指投资者在具备充分的投资知识和经验的基础上,理性分析市场和正确进行投资决策的程度。
17 贺卫.1999.寻租经济学.中国发展出版社.
18 文淑惠.投资者利益保护研究——基于新兴证券市场的理论分析.上海财经大学博士论文.2006.
19 在个人投资者中,也有少部分人投资金额较大。他们在信息搜寻上,也会采取一些类似机构投资者的方式,比如到上市公司进行实地调研,雇佣咨询人员进行专业分析等。但是鉴于这部分投资者在个人投资者中比例较小,所以在本文中暂不考虑。
20 从理论上讲,任何投资者都不具备完全的预测信息真实性的能力。但是机构投资者作为专业投资者,我们可以假定他们获取真实信息与预测信息真实性的能力要超过个人投资者。
21 祈斌、王欧.我国资本市场与世界成熟资本市场的主要差距.2007.中国证监会网站.
22 资料来源www.nyse.com.
23 资料来源www.hkex.com.hk.
24 郭晔.中国证券监管制度的换位思考.经济科学,2004(3):27-34
25 在在经济学中,理性是指在信息完全与信息对称的条件下,经济行为体能够做出最优决策。证券 市场是信息不完全的市场,在上市公司与投资者之间,在大投资者与个人投资者之间都存在信息小对称的情况。本文中,证券市场投资者的理性指投资者能够获取真实信息或具备预测信息真实性的能力,并在此基础上进行最优投资决策。而非理性是指投资者不能获取真实信息或不具备预测信息真实性的能力。
26 Mathew Q.Jackson.1991.Equilibruim,Price Formation,and the Value of Private Information.The Review of Financial Studies,Vol.4,No.l,pp.l-16.Jackson证实了在不完全竞争条件下,完全揭示信息的均衡价格与交易者愿意收集有成本的私人信息这两件事有同时存在的可能性。
27 5埃德加·彼得斯.资本市场的混沌与秩序.中译本.经济科学出版社..1999.
28 Barberis Nicholas,Andrei Shleifer and Robert Vishney.A Model of Investor Sentiment.Working Paper,University of Chicago.1996.
29 本部分内容主要参考莫迪利亚尼.1999.资本市场:机构与工具.中译本.经济科学出版社.
30 Merton,Robert.1973.The Asset Pricing Model of Duration.Econometrica.Vol.9.P867-888.
31 Daniel Kent,David nirshleifer and Avanidhar Subrahmanyam.Investor Psychology and Security Market Under-and over-Reaction.Journal of Finance.1998.
32 同27.
33 布莱克.噪声交易.帕尔格雷夫经济学辞典英文版.中册.1986.
34 德龙.积极反馈投资战略与加剧不稳定的理性投资.财金杂志,1990,(2).
35 Kyle.1985.Continuous Auction and Insider Trading.Econometrica.53.P1315.
36 凯恩斯.就业、利息与货币通论.商务出版社.1986.
37 李心丹.国外金融体系风险理论综述.经济学动态.1998(1).
38 埃德加·彼得斯.资本市场的混沌与秩序.中译本.经济科学出版社.1999.
39 Hong H,Stein J;A Unified Theory of Under-Reaction,Momentum Trading,and Overreaction in Asset Markets[J][M];Journal of Finance;1999.
40 Barberis,Nicholas,Richard Thaler;A Survey of Behavioral Finance[A][M];Handbook of the Economics of Finance;2003.
41 赵德武等.不完善市场条件下的投资者行为与风险资本特性.教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目《基于衍生金融工具的公司投融资研究》(项目批准号:02JAZJD790027).
42 同注释38。
43 刘力.行为金融理论对效率市场假说的挑战.经济科学.1999,(3).
44 同上
45 刘力.行为金融理论对效率市场假说的挑战.经济科学.1999,(3).
46 中证网,2008—1—12。
47 彭迎春、常文虎、沈艳红.如何测量问卷的信度.中华医院管理杂志.2004,(6).
48 韩少梅等.学校—社会行为量表的信度和效度.基础医学与临床,2006,(7).
49 曾五一、黄炳艺.调查问卷的可信度和有效度分析.统计与信息论坛,2005,(6).
50 资料来源:www.sia.com.
51 王烜.中国股市波动特性、政策市成因与政府有效干预机制研究.湖南大学博士论文.2005)
52 这里的“消费”指消费者可自由决定的购买(discretionary purchase)。关键在于这种消费可以被推迟,如房屋、汽车、家庭用具等大的耐用消费品以及如贷款购买等,这些都是相对不那么频繁的大宗购买,属于典型的计划性购买——非常依赖于消费者对他们未来经济形势的预期。
53 Behavioral Macroeconomics主张宏观经济现象是个决策的集合。现在这一研究领域已经成为研究的热点,其研究者中不乏象George A.Akerlof,Robert J.Shiller这样的大师。
54 陶国富.消费行为心理学.立信会计出版社,2003.
55 资料来源www.stat-usa.gov.
56 消费者预期指数已经被列入美国商务部经济分析署发表的最主要综合预示指标之中(Leading Indicator Composite Index published by the U.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of Economic Analysis),这充分证明这一指标有助于对国家经济变化的理解和预测。最主要综合指标的遴选基于各种指标在六个重要特征上的表现:经济重要性、统计准确性、与经济周期峰谷在时间上的一致性.与经济扩张与紧缩的相符性、平滑性、以及及时的实用性。迄今没有其他消费者调查能够满足这些严格的标准。
57 如前所述,在我国,投资者的信心和投资行为还受到“政策”因素的重要影响。
58 鲁直、施欢欢.证券市场投资者信心指数刍议.证券市场导报.2003,(8).
59 张圣平.偏好、信息、信念与证券价格.上海三联书店、上海人民出版社,2006.
60 谭加洲.行为金融与投资者信心.青岛大学硕士论文,2005.
61 卢华.制度变迁与投资者行为——对中国股票市场的实证研究.上海财经大学出版社,2006.
62 资料来源:中国证监会网站www.csrc.gov.cn.
63 资料来源:上海证券交易所网站www.sse.com.cn.
64 资料来源:中国证监会网站www.csrc.gov.cn.
65 资料来源:深圳证券交易所网站www.szse.com.cn.
66 资料来源:中证网www.cs.com.cn.
67 资料来源:上海证券交易所网站www.sse.com.cn.
68 袁秀国、施光耀等.中国证券市场投资者教育报告.www.cs.com.cn.2007-6-4.
69 资料来源:深圳证券交易所网站www.szse.com.cn.
70 资料来源:中国证券业协会网站www.sac.net.cn.
71 资料来源:中国证券报网站www.cnstock.com.
72 本部分内容较多来自深交所网站,www.szse.cn.
73 资料来源:德意志交易所集团网站deutsche-boerse.com.
74 资料来源:http://www.ceconline.com/
75 江洲、谢赤.中国股市“政策市”形成机理及对策研究.求索,2007(8)
76 资料来源:www.szse.cn.
77 东京证券交易所网站,www.tse.or.jp.
78 中国证券投资者保护网.www.sipf.com.cn.
79 同上.
80 纳斯达克证券交易所网站,www.nasdaq.com.
81 中国证券投资者保护网.www.sipf.com.cn.
82 中证网,www.cs.com.cn.
83 经济合作与发展组织(OECD)官方网站,www.oecdchina.org.
83 http://online.wsj.com/public/us
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