基于实物期权的高校人力资本价值评价
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摘要
目前,全国各高校为了稳定和引进人才都出台了一系列的优惠政策和待遇,但很多院校效果并不理想,究其原因主要还是对人才的价值衡量失当,也就是我们所说的人力资本的价值评价不合理。
本文针对目前高校人力资本价值评价方法的不足,提出了利用实物期权、平行复合实物期权模型来评价高校人力资本价值,解决人力资本管理中的不确定性这一长期困扰人们的问题。
本文重点研究内容有:首先,论述了人力资本的内涵及人力资本价值评价的重要性的基础上,总结了现有的人力资本价值评价的主要理论和方法,并对他们进行了比较分析,指出这些评价方法存在的局限性。其次,根据高校人力资本管理中不确定性,将实物期权思想引入到人力资本管理中,鉴于人力资本与实物期权相似性,建立了人力资本的实物期权。人力资本实物期权是基于人力资本管理活动的实物期权,是管理人力资本不确定性及风险的重要工具。实物期权的理论基础是期权定价理论,这样就可以将实物期权定价模型应用到高校人力资本价值评价。最后,根据平行复合实物期权的特性,将平行复合实物期权思想引入到人力资本价值的评价当中,建立多阶段的平行复合实物期权评价模型,同时将随机动态规划的方法应用到平行复合实物期权的定价中,并且运用该模型对高校人力资本价值进行评价。
本论文建立人力资本价值实物期权评价模型、多阶段的平行复合实物期权评价模型和实例研究分析的基本构架,对高校人力资本价值进行评价,此研究有重要的实用价值和应用前景。
At present, in order to stabilize and the introduce talents, all colleges and universities have established a series of preferential policies and treatment. However, results in many institutions were not satisfactory because of misconduct on measuring talents. That is called unreasonable evaluation on human capital.
This article has analyzed the deficiency on university evaluation of human capital, which proposed real option and parallel compound real option to evaluate the value of human capital in colleges and universities, which resolved the problem of uncertainty in human capital management.
This article has several key elements as following: first, summing up the main theories and methods existing human capital value assessment based on the end pointing out the limitations in these methods. Second, introducing the real options in the human capital management based on the uncertainties and risks in human capital management. In view of human capital and real option have a similarity, the establishment of the Human Capital Real Option. Human capital real option is one kind of real options based on human capital management and an important tool to measure uncertainty. The theoretical basis of real options is of option pricing theory; therefore, this method can be explicated in human capital assessment in colleges and universities. At last, According to the parallel compound of real options characteristics, compound parallel of real options thinking to the introduction of the value of human capital evaluation, establishing parallel compound real option in Multi-stage and introducing the stochastic dynamic programming in parallel composite real option. In universities the college human capital value is evaluated with this model.
In this article , the real option assessment model、parallel composite real option assessment model and empirical analysis. Evaluating the human capital has an important practical value and applicable prospects.
本文针对目前高校人力资本价值评价方法的不足,提出了利用实物期权、平行复合实物期权模型来评价高校人力资本价值,解决人力资本管理中的不确定性这一长期困扰人们的问题。
本文重点研究内容有:首先,论述了人力资本的内涵及人力资本价值评价的重要性的基础上,总结了现有的人力资本价值评价的主要理论和方法,并对他们进行了比较分析,指出这些评价方法存在的局限性。其次,根据高校人力资本管理中不确定性,将实物期权思想引入到人力资本管理中,鉴于人力资本与实物期权相似性,建立了人力资本的实物期权。人力资本实物期权是基于人力资本管理活动的实物期权,是管理人力资本不确定性及风险的重要工具。实物期权的理论基础是期权定价理论,这样就可以将实物期权定价模型应用到高校人力资本价值评价。最后,根据平行复合实物期权的特性,将平行复合实物期权思想引入到人力资本价值的评价当中,建立多阶段的平行复合实物期权评价模型,同时将随机动态规划的方法应用到平行复合实物期权的定价中,并且运用该模型对高校人力资本价值进行评价。
本论文建立人力资本价值实物期权评价模型、多阶段的平行复合实物期权评价模型和实例研究分析的基本构架,对高校人力资本价值进行评价,此研究有重要的实用价值和应用前景。
At present, in order to stabilize and the introduce talents, all colleges and universities have established a series of preferential policies and treatment. However, results in many institutions were not satisfactory because of misconduct on measuring talents. That is called unreasonable evaluation on human capital.
This article has analyzed the deficiency on university evaluation of human capital, which proposed real option and parallel compound real option to evaluate the value of human capital in colleges and universities, which resolved the problem of uncertainty in human capital management.
This article has several key elements as following: first, summing up the main theories and methods existing human capital value assessment based on the end pointing out the limitations in these methods. Second, introducing the real options in the human capital management based on the uncertainties and risks in human capital management. In view of human capital and real option have a similarity, the establishment of the Human Capital Real Option. Human capital real option is one kind of real options based on human capital management and an important tool to measure uncertainty. The theoretical basis of real options is of option pricing theory; therefore, this method can be explicated in human capital assessment in colleges and universities. At last, According to the parallel compound of real options characteristics, compound parallel of real options thinking to the introduction of the value of human capital evaluation, establishing parallel compound real option in Multi-stage and introducing the stochastic dynamic programming in parallel composite real option. In universities the college human capital value is evaluated with this model.
In this article , the real option assessment model、parallel composite real option assessment model and empirical analysis. Evaluating the human capital has an important practical value and applicable prospects.
引文
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[4] Schultz,T.W. Investment in Human Capital [J].The American Economic Review,196:12 (1):1~17.
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[6]刘大为.人力资源价值计量模型比较研究[J].中国科技论坛,2004(6):136~138.
[7]王新华,孙剑平.国内外人力资本定价理论研究综述[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2003(8):67~69.
[8]樊培银,徐凤霞.关于人力资源价值计量方法的探讨[J].中国工业经济,2002(3):91~96.
[9] Myers S C.Determinants of Corporate Borrowing.Journal of Financial Economics, Vo:5, Iss:2, 1977(11):325~364.
[10]韩国文.国内外实物期权研究综述[J].技术经济,2006(4):95~97.
[11] Lenos, Trigeogis.A Log-Transformed Binomial Numerical Analysis Method for Valuing Complex Multi-Option. Journal of financial and quantitative analysis, Vol:26, Iss:3, 1991:309~325.
[12] Kester, Carl W.Turning Growth Options into Real Assets.in.Aggarwal, Raj(ed). Capital Budgeting under Uncertainty, 1993:187~207.
[13] Kulatilaka, Nalin, Operating Flexibilities in Capital Budgeting: Substitutability and Complementarity in Real Options. In Real Options in Capital Investment: Models, Strategies, and Applications, Trigeorgis, Lenos(ed.), NewYork, NY: Praeger(1995):121~132.
[14] Paul D. Childs, Steven H. Ott and Alexander J. Triantis. Capital budgeting for interrelated projects: a real options approach. Journal of Financial Quantitative Analysis, Vo1:33, Iss:3, 1993:305~334.
[15] Pennings.E, Lint O.Market entry, phased rollout or abandonment? A real options approach.European Journal of Operational Research, 124, 2000:125~138.
[16] Alvarez, L.H.R. Stenbacka, R. Adoption of uncertain multi-stage technology projects: a real options approach. Journal of Mathematical Economics, 35, 2001:71~97.
[17] Lin, W.T. Computing a Multivariate Normal Integral for Valuing Compound Real Option. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting.Vo1:18, Iss:22, 2002:185~209
[18] Buraschi, A. and Dumas, B. The forward valuations of compound option. Journal of Derivatives, 9, 2001:8-17.
[19] Geman, H, EI Karoui N. and Rochet J.C. Changes of numeraire, changes of probability measure and option pricing. Journal of Applied Probability, 32, 1995:443~458.
[20] Elettra A. and Rossella A. A generalization of the Geske formula for compound options. Mathematical Social Sciences, 45, 2003:75~82.
[21] Herath H.S.B and Park C.S. Multi-Stage Capital Investment Opportunities as Compound Real Options. The Engineering Economist,Vo1:47, Iss:l, 2002:1~27.
[22]张宗成,戚道安.创业投资定价模型的推导[J].华中科技大学学报,30(7),2002:83~88.
[23]郑德渊,李湛.基于不对称风险复合期权定价模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2003(2) :14~18.
[24] D. Cassimon, P.J Engelen.L.Thomassen and M. Van Wouwe. The valuation of a NDA using a 6-fold compound option. Research Policy, 33,2004:41~51.
[25] Rainer Brosch.Portfolio-aspects in the options management. Working Paper Series: Finance & Accounting, Vo1:66, Iss:2, 2001:1~22.
[26]于洋,王辉,杜永怡.我国实物期权研究的回顾与思考[J].科研管理,2003( 7):116~121.
[27]范龙振,唐国兴.投资机会价值的期权评价方法[J].管理工程学报,2000(4):34~39.
[28]戴和忠.现实期权在R&D项目评价中的应用[J].科研管理,2000(121):108~112.
[29]郑德渊.基于跳跃过程的复合期权定价模型[J].中国管理科学,2004,12(1) :15~19.
[30]郑德渊,李湛.基于不对称风险的复合期权定价模型[J].系统工程理论与实,2003 ( 2 ) :14~18.
[31]董翠玲,师恪.标的股票服从跳—扩散过程的复合期权定价模型[J].新疆大学学报(自然科学版),2005,22(1):26~30.
[32]代春艳,黄正洪.复合期权定价理论与IT项目投资评价[J].统计与决策,2005(7) :133~135.
[33]陈琦,石金涛.人力资本流动风险管理-实物期权理论的应用[J].科学管理研.2004(4):81~84.
[34]贺向华,胡振华.实物期权在人力资本价值计量中的应用[J].华东经济管理,2005(11):115~117.
[35]司强,魏冠明.人力资本价值的实物期权分析[J].人力资源,2006(3):75~77.
[36]张忠元,向洪.人才资本[M].北京:中国时代经济出版社,2002:22.
[37] Arthur Andesen and The American Productivity and Quality Center. The Knowledge management Assessment Tool: External Benchmarking Version, Winter,1996:45.
[38]钟旭东.企业人力资本使用价值和利用效果的计算[J].中南工业大学学报,2000(3):35~36.
[39]刘永泽,戴军.论知识经济对人力资源会计的影响[J].会计研究,2000 (3):1~6.
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