基于SCP范式的银行业市场结构、效率与绩效研究
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摘要
上海金融体系中,银行依然处于主导地位,其绩效的提高对于金融稳定与发展具有重要作用,对它的银行业市场结构、效率和绩效的研究具有重要的现实意义和参照作用。本文在产业组织理论的SCP范式下,采用定量研究和定性研究相结合的方法,通过比较和归纳,分析上海市银行业的市场结构、效率和绩效状况,以及它们之间的内在关系,并分析其原因。
关于这方面的研究有以下理论假说:传统共谋假说认为高度集中的市场会导致银行较高的利润率;相对市场势力假说则认为只有占据较大市场份额的银行才会获得较高的利润率;而效率结构假说则认为高效率的银行可以获得较高的利润率,进而扩大自身市场份额并使银行业市场结构趋向集中;如果较高的市场份额导致了银行的低效率,则表明“安逸生活”假说成立。
本文利用上海市银行业2002年-2006年的相关数据建立模型对三者之间的关系进行了实证分析。首先,本文从市场份额、市场集中度、赫希曼-赫芬达尔指数、洛伦兹曲线、基尼系数、进入壁垒和退出壁垒等多个角度对银行业的市场结构进行了实证研究;然后采用数据包络分析(DEA)方法对各银行的效率进行了测度;然后再对各银行的绩效进行了定性和定量研究;最后,在各阶段研究的指标数据基础上,运用模型来实证分析市场结构、效率和绩效之间的关系。鉴于外资银行在上海市银行业中参与程度不断加深,其地位越来越重要,因此在本文计量模型框架下,还分析了外资银行的进入对上海市银行业的影响。
实证结果拒绝传统共谋假说、相对市场势力假说和效率结构假说而支持“安逸生活”假说,并得出以下结论:上海市银行业中市场份额、市场集中度与银行绩效呈负相关关系;市场份额较大的银行效率未必就高,较大市场份额并非完全是由高效率的经营导致的,还与其自身的庞大规模有关;银行的效率与盈利能力成正相关,效率的提高有助于绩效的改善;资产规模与银行盈利能力相关性较弱,说明规模经济对银行绩效作用不明显,行业中各银行并没有表现出明显的规模经济特征;外资银行的进入促使银行业市场结构更为趋向竞争,其与中资银行在绩效(尤其是盈利能力)上没有明显的相关关系。本文对造成这种状况的原因进行了探究,发现跟体制因素、存贷款利率管制和行政因素是分不开的,因此降低银行业进退壁垒,鼓励民营资本和外资的进入,深化金融改革,提高效率等是上海市银行业发展所必须要考虑的。
Banking sector is the dominant sector of financial system .Improvement of performance plays an important role to the financial stability and development. Shanghai has the highest degree of openness and financial marketization in China. The research on its banking market structure and performance is of great realistic significance and role of the light. This paper combines the two methods of quantitative and qualitative research based on SCP padadigm. By comparing and summing up the actuality, this paper analysis Shanghai's banking market structure,efficiency and performance status, as well as the relationship and its reasons.
On the relationship of them, the following point of views exist: Traditional Collusion Hypothesis asserts the positive relationship between market concentration and bank profitability; Relative Market Power Hypothesis states that only the banks with larger market share can earn a high profit margin; Efficiency Structure Hypothesis figure that the highly efficient banks can get high returns, expand their market share and make banking sector more concentrated; If larger market share lead to the bank’s lower efficiency and performance, it indicates the establishment of“Quiet life”Hypothesis.
This paper carries out empirical study on market structure, efficiency performance and their correlation in Shanghai’s banking sector based on the data from 2002 to 2006.First of all, This paper researches on banking market structure from the market share, market concentration, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, the Lorenz curve, the Gini coefficient, the barriers to entry and other barriers, and then using DEA method to analysis the efficiency; then carrying out the qualitative and quantitative research the economic performance of banks; Finally, based on various stages of research data, using the empirical model to analysis the market structure、efficiency、performance and the their relationships.Considering the deep degree of foreign banks’accession and influence to Shanghai’s banking, so this paper also analysis the impact of foreign banks in the framework of the model.
From the results, Traditional Collusion Hypothesis, Relative Market Power Hypothesis and Efficiency Structure Hypothesis are rejected, and yet“Quiet Life”is supported. It draws the following conclusions: market share and market concentration correlate with bank performance negatively in Shanghai’s banking; the banks with larger market share have lower efficiency, efficient operating is part of reason of the large market shares, their macro-scale should also be considered; the efficiency correlates with profitability positively, efficiency is an important factor affecting performance, the development of efficiency is helpful to better performance; asset scale is not significantly correlative with profitability, indicating that the effect of scale economy on performance is not obvious. Entry of foreign banks promote more competition in the sector, but there is no obvious correlation between the entry of foreign banks and the performance (in particular on profitability)of domestic banks. This paper explores the reasons which cause this state of affairs , the system、interest rate control and administrative factors are important factors. So broaden the barriers to encourage private capital and foreign capital to entry, deepen financial reform and improve operational efficiency and so on, these measures must be taken into account for the development of Shanghai’s banking.
关于这方面的研究有以下理论假说:传统共谋假说认为高度集中的市场会导致银行较高的利润率;相对市场势力假说则认为只有占据较大市场份额的银行才会获得较高的利润率;而效率结构假说则认为高效率的银行可以获得较高的利润率,进而扩大自身市场份额并使银行业市场结构趋向集中;如果较高的市场份额导致了银行的低效率,则表明“安逸生活”假说成立。
本文利用上海市银行业2002年-2006年的相关数据建立模型对三者之间的关系进行了实证分析。首先,本文从市场份额、市场集中度、赫希曼-赫芬达尔指数、洛伦兹曲线、基尼系数、进入壁垒和退出壁垒等多个角度对银行业的市场结构进行了实证研究;然后采用数据包络分析(DEA)方法对各银行的效率进行了测度;然后再对各银行的绩效进行了定性和定量研究;最后,在各阶段研究的指标数据基础上,运用模型来实证分析市场结构、效率和绩效之间的关系。鉴于外资银行在上海市银行业中参与程度不断加深,其地位越来越重要,因此在本文计量模型框架下,还分析了外资银行的进入对上海市银行业的影响。
实证结果拒绝传统共谋假说、相对市场势力假说和效率结构假说而支持“安逸生活”假说,并得出以下结论:上海市银行业中市场份额、市场集中度与银行绩效呈负相关关系;市场份额较大的银行效率未必就高,较大市场份额并非完全是由高效率的经营导致的,还与其自身的庞大规模有关;银行的效率与盈利能力成正相关,效率的提高有助于绩效的改善;资产规模与银行盈利能力相关性较弱,说明规模经济对银行绩效作用不明显,行业中各银行并没有表现出明显的规模经济特征;外资银行的进入促使银行业市场结构更为趋向竞争,其与中资银行在绩效(尤其是盈利能力)上没有明显的相关关系。本文对造成这种状况的原因进行了探究,发现跟体制因素、存贷款利率管制和行政因素是分不开的,因此降低银行业进退壁垒,鼓励民营资本和外资的进入,深化金融改革,提高效率等是上海市银行业发展所必须要考虑的。
Banking sector is the dominant sector of financial system .Improvement of performance plays an important role to the financial stability and development. Shanghai has the highest degree of openness and financial marketization in China. The research on its banking market structure and performance is of great realistic significance and role of the light. This paper combines the two methods of quantitative and qualitative research based on SCP padadigm. By comparing and summing up the actuality, this paper analysis Shanghai's banking market structure,efficiency and performance status, as well as the relationship and its reasons.
On the relationship of them, the following point of views exist: Traditional Collusion Hypothesis asserts the positive relationship between market concentration and bank profitability; Relative Market Power Hypothesis states that only the banks with larger market share can earn a high profit margin; Efficiency Structure Hypothesis figure that the highly efficient banks can get high returns, expand their market share and make banking sector more concentrated; If larger market share lead to the bank’s lower efficiency and performance, it indicates the establishment of“Quiet life”Hypothesis.
This paper carries out empirical study on market structure, efficiency performance and their correlation in Shanghai’s banking sector based on the data from 2002 to 2006.First of all, This paper researches on banking market structure from the market share, market concentration, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, the Lorenz curve, the Gini coefficient, the barriers to entry and other barriers, and then using DEA method to analysis the efficiency; then carrying out the qualitative and quantitative research the economic performance of banks; Finally, based on various stages of research data, using the empirical model to analysis the market structure、efficiency、performance and the their relationships.Considering the deep degree of foreign banks’accession and influence to Shanghai’s banking, so this paper also analysis the impact of foreign banks in the framework of the model.
From the results, Traditional Collusion Hypothesis, Relative Market Power Hypothesis and Efficiency Structure Hypothesis are rejected, and yet“Quiet Life”is supported. It draws the following conclusions: market share and market concentration correlate with bank performance negatively in Shanghai’s banking; the banks with larger market share have lower efficiency, efficient operating is part of reason of the large market shares, their macro-scale should also be considered; the efficiency correlates with profitability positively, efficiency is an important factor affecting performance, the development of efficiency is helpful to better performance; asset scale is not significantly correlative with profitability, indicating that the effect of scale economy on performance is not obvious. Entry of foreign banks promote more competition in the sector, but there is no obvious correlation between the entry of foreign banks and the performance (in particular on profitability)of domestic banks. This paper explores the reasons which cause this state of affairs , the system、interest rate control and administrative factors are important factors. So broaden the barriers to encourage private capital and foreign capital to entry, deepen financial reform and improve operational efficiency and so on, these measures must be taken into account for the development of Shanghai’s banking.
引文
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[5]方莹,严太华.中国银行业市场结构的实证分析与综合评价[J].财经理论与实践,2005,26(2):29-34.
[6]何韧.银行业市场结构、效率和绩效的相关性研究——基于上海地区银行业的考察[J].财经研究,2005,31(12):29-40.
[7]侯世宇.商业银行市场结构与银行X效率[J].广西金融研究,2006 ,(1):34-36.
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[2]崔晓峰.银行产业组织理论与政策研究[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2005
[3]高玉泽.中国银行业市场结构与竞争行为[J].产业经济研究,2003,2(1):49-55.
[4]郭妍,张立光.外资银行进入对我国银行业影响效应的实证研究[J].经济科学,2005,(2):58-66.
[5]方莹,严太华.中国银行业市场结构的实证分析与综合评价[J].财经理论与实践,2005,26(2):29-34.
[6]何韧.银行业市场结构、效率和绩效的相关性研究——基于上海地区银行业的考察[J].财经研究,2005,31(12):29-40.
[7]侯世宇.商业银行市场结构与银行X效率[J].广西金融研究,2006 ,(1):34-36.
[8]黄宪,熊福平.外资银行进入对我国银行业影响的实证研究[J].国际金融研究,2006,(5):21-27.
[9]李华民.转轨过程中国有银行行为与效率问题解析[J].现代财经,2004,(11):35-40.
[10]刘伟,黄桂田.中国银行业改革的侧重点:产权结构还是市场结构[J].经济研究,2002,(8):3-11.
[11]刘元元.我国银行业开放进程中的市场结构演进与启示[J].国际商务——对外经济贸易大学学报,2005,(2):32-33.
[12]秦宛顺,欧阳俊.中国商业银行业市场结构、效率和绩效[J].经济科学,2001,(4):34-45.
[13]苏东水.产业经济学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2000.
[14]涂万春,陈丰先.产权、市场结构与中国银行业绩效——基于修正的scp分析框架[J].产业经济研究,2006,4(23):42-53.
[15]王宁,李植.数据包络分析法DEA在我国商业效率研究中的运用[J].当代经济管理,2006,28(1):67-72.
[16]吴振坤.入世对银行业的影响和应对措施[J].理论探索,2002,(2):3-7.
[17]杨公仆,夏大为.产业经济学[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2002.
[18]叶欣,郭建伟,冯宗宪.垄断到竞争:中国商业银行业市场结构的变迁[J].金融研究,2001,257(11):79-85.
[19]叶欣,冯宗宪.外资银行进入对本国银行体系稳定性影响的实证研究[J].经济科学,2003,(2):50-56.
[20]易定,陈雯.稳中求进:倒计时阶段银行业改革的路径选择[J].财经科学,2006,215(2):1-8.
[21]于良春,鞠源.垄断与竞争:中国银行业改革与发展[J].经济研究,1999,(8):48-57.
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