贸易开放与金融发展互动关系研究
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摘要
自20世纪90年代以来,世界经济呈现出全球化的发展趋势,其中,国际贸易和金融发展相互联系和渗透,成为备受关注的两大领域,因此越来越多的学者将研究视野从单纯考量贸易或金融对经济增长的作用转向了两者的内在联系。已有研究大多以发达国家为重点研究对象,认为金融发展是整体经济活动的核心环节,对贸易规模及开放结构均有积极影响,因而不仅发达国家须继续深化金融发展作为推动国际贸易、增强国际竞争力的重要手段和动力,发展中国家更应追随发达国家,实施“金融优先”的发展战略。但对贸易开放与金融发展在不同收入水平国家中所表现出的不同互动关系未引起足够的重视,其对发展中国家的政策建议也值得商榷。因此,贸易开放与金融发展在发展中国家和发达国家内不同的互动关系成为本文研究的核心问题。
论文共由7章构成,从理论和实证两个层面考察了贸易开放与金融发展在不同收入水平国家中的互动关系,尤其是发展中国家贸易开放对金融发展的影响机制。第1章为导论,阐述选题背景和意义、核心概念、研究内容及篇章安排。第2章综述了国内外国际贸易与金融发展的相关文献。第3章遵循经济全球化的演进历史,根据不同收入水平、不同发展特征进行贸易开放与金融发展的阶段划分。第4章多视角剖析贸易开放与金融发展互动的理论机制,重点构建规模经济、风险分散、人力资本和比较优势四个传导机制模型,提出贸易开放与金融发展在发展中国家呈现出贸易带动金融为主导的“需求尾随”互动关系,不同于发达国家金融促进贸易为主导的“供给引导”互动关系。第5章对76个国家近30年来的贸易、金融数据进行了实证分析,进一步揭示互动关系在发达国家和发展中国家所表现出的不同特征和趋势。第6章在回顾中国改革开放以来贸易开放与金融发展历程的基础上,对二者在中国的互动关系进行实证检验,发现以“需求尾随”为主导的互动关系同样适用于现阶段的中国。第7章则结合此轮金融危机的种种现象,对互动关系进行再思考,探索中国协调贸易开放与金融发展的可持续发展道路。
在前人研究的基础上,本文主要在以下5个方面做出了创新:
(1)借鉴Patrick(1966)在金融发展和经济增长关系上所提出理论假说,本文提出贸易开放与金融发展的理论假说:贸易开放与金融发展在发展中国家是以贸易带动金融的“需求尾随”为主导的互动关系,不同于发达国家中金融发展促进贸易开放的“供给引导”互动关系。通过归纳规模经济、风险分散、人力资本和比较优势等互动机制,明确发展中国家的金融发展,包括金融部门的规模和发展程度可能受到贸易开放的影响。
(2)利用SYS-GMM,JJ协整检验,ARDL协整检验,Granger以及Geweke因果分解检验等计量方法全面研究各类收入水平国家以及中国的贸易开放与金融发展的互动关系。结果表明,无论是短期或长期,发展中国家内的贸易开放与金融发展间均存在较强的相关性,其中以贸易开放对金融发展的正面影响为主导,证实了理论分析中“需求尾随”的假说。此外中国的贸易开放与金融发展程度之间也存在显著的双向因果关系,亦以贸易开放对金融发展程度的促进作用为主导。
(3)对贸易开放与金融发展间的关系进行了长时序的跨国实证研究,共涉及76个国家1960-2006年的样本数据,并对其中49个发展中国家,27个发达国家进行了分类研究。并采用“主成分分析”(principal components analysis)方法对众多传统金融指标进行了组合,将常用指标有机组合成5大综合指标,利用这一探索性统计分析方法有效减少数据测量中的误差或异常值所带来的负面影响。
(4)结合当前全球金融危机的背景,在大量的理论和实证工作基础上,本文认为以往研究过于强调金融发展对国际贸易单方面的有利影响存在其局限性和目的性,发展中国家不应一味强调“金融优先”的发展战略,还需从实体经济的发展需求出发,正视金融体系的服务功能,协调二者发展步伐。
Since the 90's of 20th century, the world economy shows the development trend of globalization, in which international trade and financial development have got mutual contact and penetration. They become the two major areas of concern, so a growing number of scholars have shifted their perspective from the relationship between trade or finance and economic growth to the intrinsic link between the trade and finance. Existed researches have mostly focused on developed countries, and regarded the financial development is the core aspect of overall economic activity. It may have a positive impact on the scale and structure of trade openness, thus, it is suggested that not only developed countries should continue to deepen financial development as a promotional power for international trade and competitiveness, developing countries should follow the developed countries, by the implementation of "Financial priority" development strategy. However, the fact that trade openness and financial development in those countries at different income levels show the different interactions has not been taken into the consideration, and its policy recommendations for developing countries are also questionable. Therefore, the different interactions between trade openness and financial development in developing countries and developed countries, is the core issue of this paper.
Thesis constitutes of 7 chapters, containing the theoretical and empirical study of interaction between trade openness and financial development at different income levels countries, especially the mechanism of trade liberalization influences the financial development in developing countries. Chapter 1 explains the background and significance of topics, the core concept, research contents and chapter arrangement. Chapter 2 summarizes the related literature of international trade and financial development. Chapter 3, following the evolution of the economic globalization, analyses different characteristics of the development phasing of trade openness and financial development according to different income levels. Chapter 4 carries out a multi-angle analysis of interactive mechanism between trade liberalization and financial development. Trade openness and financial development in developing countries show a trade-led "demand following" interaction while finance-driven "supply leading" interactive relationship being found in developed countries. Chapter 5, 76 countries of trade, finance data over past 30 years is analyzed, and further reveals the interaction in developed and developing countries have shown different characteristics and trends. Chapter 6, looking back at China's reform and opening up, it is found that "demand following" as the dominant interaction in China at this stage as well based on the empirical testing. Chapter 7 combined with the current financial crisis, re-considers a variety the interaction to explore the coordination of Chinese trade openness and financial development in the road to sustainable development.
At the basis of previous studies, this paper mainly makes innovation in the following five aspects:
(1) Putting forward theoretical hypothesis from Patrick (1966): trade openness and financial development in developing countries based mainly on a trade-led "demand following", while the interaction in developed countries shows "supply leading". Through the interactive mechanism such as economies of scale, risk diversification, human capital and comparative advantage, financial development in developing countries, including the size and level of financial sector, influenced by trade liberalization.
(2) Using SYS-GMM, JJ Cointegration Test, ARDL Cointegration Test, Granger causality and the Geweke decomposition test methods, a comprehensive study of interactive and interdependent relationship in trade openness and financial development of different income levels countries. The results show the existence of strong correlation between trade openness and financial development in developing countries, both the short-term and long-term. And the positive effect trade openness has on financial development confirms the theoretical hypothesis "demand following". In addition, significant two-way causal relationship between trade openness and financial development also exists in China.
(3) The long time series of cross-section and panel data empirical studies involving a total of 76 country sample data of 1960-2006, which includes 49 developing countries, 27 developed countries classified research. The use of "principal component analysis" (principal components analysis) method to transform a few commonly used indicators into 5 synthesis unit. The composite indicators, as an exploratory statistical analysis methods are effective in reducing the data measurement errors or outliers the negative effects.
(4) Combined with the current global financial crisis, and the results of theoretical and empirical work, this paper argues that previous studies on international trade and financial development put too much emphasis of the beneficial effects of unilateral. Developing countries should not be always emphasizing "Financial priority" development strategy. By stressing the service function of the financial system and developing it based on the needs of the real economy, developing countries should pay more attention to the coordination between their developments pace.
论文共由7章构成,从理论和实证两个层面考察了贸易开放与金融发展在不同收入水平国家中的互动关系,尤其是发展中国家贸易开放对金融发展的影响机制。第1章为导论,阐述选题背景和意义、核心概念、研究内容及篇章安排。第2章综述了国内外国际贸易与金融发展的相关文献。第3章遵循经济全球化的演进历史,根据不同收入水平、不同发展特征进行贸易开放与金融发展的阶段划分。第4章多视角剖析贸易开放与金融发展互动的理论机制,重点构建规模经济、风险分散、人力资本和比较优势四个传导机制模型,提出贸易开放与金融发展在发展中国家呈现出贸易带动金融为主导的“需求尾随”互动关系,不同于发达国家金融促进贸易为主导的“供给引导”互动关系。第5章对76个国家近30年来的贸易、金融数据进行了实证分析,进一步揭示互动关系在发达国家和发展中国家所表现出的不同特征和趋势。第6章在回顾中国改革开放以来贸易开放与金融发展历程的基础上,对二者在中国的互动关系进行实证检验,发现以“需求尾随”为主导的互动关系同样适用于现阶段的中国。第7章则结合此轮金融危机的种种现象,对互动关系进行再思考,探索中国协调贸易开放与金融发展的可持续发展道路。
在前人研究的基础上,本文主要在以下5个方面做出了创新:
(1)借鉴Patrick(1966)在金融发展和经济增长关系上所提出理论假说,本文提出贸易开放与金融发展的理论假说:贸易开放与金融发展在发展中国家是以贸易带动金融的“需求尾随”为主导的互动关系,不同于发达国家中金融发展促进贸易开放的“供给引导”互动关系。通过归纳规模经济、风险分散、人力资本和比较优势等互动机制,明确发展中国家的金融发展,包括金融部门的规模和发展程度可能受到贸易开放的影响。
(2)利用SYS-GMM,JJ协整检验,ARDL协整检验,Granger以及Geweke因果分解检验等计量方法全面研究各类收入水平国家以及中国的贸易开放与金融发展的互动关系。结果表明,无论是短期或长期,发展中国家内的贸易开放与金融发展间均存在较强的相关性,其中以贸易开放对金融发展的正面影响为主导,证实了理论分析中“需求尾随”的假说。此外中国的贸易开放与金融发展程度之间也存在显著的双向因果关系,亦以贸易开放对金融发展程度的促进作用为主导。
(3)对贸易开放与金融发展间的关系进行了长时序的跨国实证研究,共涉及76个国家1960-2006年的样本数据,并对其中49个发展中国家,27个发达国家进行了分类研究。并采用“主成分分析”(principal components analysis)方法对众多传统金融指标进行了组合,将常用指标有机组合成5大综合指标,利用这一探索性统计分析方法有效减少数据测量中的误差或异常值所带来的负面影响。
(4)结合当前全球金融危机的背景,在大量的理论和实证工作基础上,本文认为以往研究过于强调金融发展对国际贸易单方面的有利影响存在其局限性和目的性,发展中国家不应一味强调“金融优先”的发展战略,还需从实体经济的发展需求出发,正视金融体系的服务功能,协调二者发展步伐。
Since the 90's of 20th century, the world economy shows the development trend of globalization, in which international trade and financial development have got mutual contact and penetration. They become the two major areas of concern, so a growing number of scholars have shifted their perspective from the relationship between trade or finance and economic growth to the intrinsic link between the trade and finance. Existed researches have mostly focused on developed countries, and regarded the financial development is the core aspect of overall economic activity. It may have a positive impact on the scale and structure of trade openness, thus, it is suggested that not only developed countries should continue to deepen financial development as a promotional power for international trade and competitiveness, developing countries should follow the developed countries, by the implementation of "Financial priority" development strategy. However, the fact that trade openness and financial development in those countries at different income levels show the different interactions has not been taken into the consideration, and its policy recommendations for developing countries are also questionable. Therefore, the different interactions between trade openness and financial development in developing countries and developed countries, is the core issue of this paper.
Thesis constitutes of 7 chapters, containing the theoretical and empirical study of interaction between trade openness and financial development at different income levels countries, especially the mechanism of trade liberalization influences the financial development in developing countries. Chapter 1 explains the background and significance of topics, the core concept, research contents and chapter arrangement. Chapter 2 summarizes the related literature of international trade and financial development. Chapter 3, following the evolution of the economic globalization, analyses different characteristics of the development phasing of trade openness and financial development according to different income levels. Chapter 4 carries out a multi-angle analysis of interactive mechanism between trade liberalization and financial development. Trade openness and financial development in developing countries show a trade-led "demand following" interaction while finance-driven "supply leading" interactive relationship being found in developed countries. Chapter 5, 76 countries of trade, finance data over past 30 years is analyzed, and further reveals the interaction in developed and developing countries have shown different characteristics and trends. Chapter 6, looking back at China's reform and opening up, it is found that "demand following" as the dominant interaction in China at this stage as well based on the empirical testing. Chapter 7 combined with the current financial crisis, re-considers a variety the interaction to explore the coordination of Chinese trade openness and financial development in the road to sustainable development.
At the basis of previous studies, this paper mainly makes innovation in the following five aspects:
(1) Putting forward theoretical hypothesis from Patrick (1966): trade openness and financial development in developing countries based mainly on a trade-led "demand following", while the interaction in developed countries shows "supply leading". Through the interactive mechanism such as economies of scale, risk diversification, human capital and comparative advantage, financial development in developing countries, including the size and level of financial sector, influenced by trade liberalization.
(2) Using SYS-GMM, JJ Cointegration Test, ARDL Cointegration Test, Granger causality and the Geweke decomposition test methods, a comprehensive study of interactive and interdependent relationship in trade openness and financial development of different income levels countries. The results show the existence of strong correlation between trade openness and financial development in developing countries, both the short-term and long-term. And the positive effect trade openness has on financial development confirms the theoretical hypothesis "demand following". In addition, significant two-way causal relationship between trade openness and financial development also exists in China.
(3) The long time series of cross-section and panel data empirical studies involving a total of 76 country sample data of 1960-2006, which includes 49 developing countries, 27 developed countries classified research. The use of "principal component analysis" (principal components analysis) method to transform a few commonly used indicators into 5 synthesis unit. The composite indicators, as an exploratory statistical analysis methods are effective in reducing the data measurement errors or outliers the negative effects.
(4) Combined with the current global financial crisis, and the results of theoretical and empirical work, this paper argues that previous studies on international trade and financial development put too much emphasis of the beneficial effects of unilateral. Developing countries should not be always emphasizing "Financial priority" development strategy. By stressing the service function of the financial system and developing it based on the needs of the real economy, developing countries should pay more attention to the coordination between their developments pace.
引文
1 参见亚当·斯密:《国民财富的性质和原因的研究》第一篇,第二,三章,商务印书馆,1972年
2 参见大卫·李嘉图:《政治经济学及赋税原理》第五、六、七章,商务印书馆,1976年
3 相关内容可参见姚曾荫主编:《国际贸易概论》,人民出版社,1987年,p56
4 转引自郭飞等著:《贸易自由化与投资自由化互动关系研究》,人民出版社,2006年,p54
19 亚当·斯密:《国民财富的性质和原因的研究》(上卷),商务印书馆,1972年,p294
20 约翰·穆勒:《政治经济学原理》(下卷)[M],商务印书馆,1991,p41
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2 参见大卫·李嘉图:《政治经济学及赋税原理》第五、六、七章,商务印书馆,1976年
3 相关内容可参见姚曾荫主编:《国际贸易概论》,人民出版社,1987年,p56
4 转引自郭飞等著:《贸易自由化与投资自由化互动关系研究》,人民出版社,2006年,p54
19 亚当·斯密:《国民财富的性质和原因的研究》(上卷),商务印书馆,1972年,p294
20 约翰·穆勒:《政治经济学原理》(下卷)[M],商务印书馆,1991,p41
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