基于GIS和RS的林火行为预测研究
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摘要
火行为的扩展具有时间性和空间特征。随着人类对火灾知识的不断增长和3S空间信息技术的快速发展，利用GIS和卫星遥感技术来进行林火行为研究在森林防火中的作用已越来越重要。由于多变的大气条件、复杂的地形以及多样的植被类型，甚至不同的火蔓延方向都将引起火烧强度的明显变化，从而引起火行为的变化。影响火行为的因素很多，其机制也很复杂，很难用一般性概念来描述它，以遥感和地理信息系统进行火行为变化规律和火行为的时空格局研究，是未来的一种重要方法。
论文综合分析了国内外林火蔓延研究的发展状况和影响火蔓延的相关因子，指出当前在技术与方法上存在的问题与不足。提出了火蔓延模型选择的4个基本出发点：模型的功能、模型适用的地区和植被类型、模型的假设条件、模型的检验频数，阐明了几种林火蔓延模型及其适用性，论述了不同林火蔓延模型的选用对实际火场的预测预报的理论意义。全文着重阐述了如何运用基于GIS的林火蔓延模型来模拟林火蔓延规律和火行为的时空格局，在此基础上，提出了一种新的基于GS技术、遥感技术和数学建模等技术的森林火灾预报预测模型，该模型通过建立森林火灾本底数据库，分析森林火灾发生和蔓延诱发因素，探讨了林火发生与蔓延的预报预测理论，以期能促进林火行为预测技术的发展和完善。
研究过程中，以ArcGIS8.3，VC++6.0为研究平台，利用ERDAS IMAGINE、计算机技术和数学知识，实现了基本地理信息子系统功能、卫星遥感实时监测功能。同时进行了林火行为计算机模拟，为林火指挥扑救提供有力的决策支持。本研究的主要内容和结论如下：
(1)综合运用GIS和RS技术、计算机技术及森林防火专业技术设计和开发了广州市森林防火林火行为子系统。
(2)结合广州市的实际情况建立了火行为的蔓延模型，它与GIS的结合使理论研究成果在实践中的应用成为可能，实现了复杂条件下林火蔓延的预测。
(3)基本地理信息系统功能。对扑火指挥员所关心的一些GIS功能进行了集成，如地理信息查询、地图放大、缩小、漫游、测量等功能，火蔓延时防火隔离带的设计。
(4)实现了火行为的模拟和仿真。本系统在分析了影响火行为的各种因子上，选择了适合于当地的林火蔓延模型，并在GIS平台上成功实现了林火蔓延的计算机模拟和仿真。
Fire spreading has the feature of time and space. With the rapid development of 3S spatial information technology and the increasingly growth knowledge of fire disaster ,It pays a more and more important role in conducting fire behavior forecast within the field of fire prevention by means of GIS technology. Fire behavior pattern is closely related with the change of fire intensity. Owing to changeable atmosphere condition, sophisticated terrain and Vegetation distribution, even different fire spreading direction can cause the obviously change of fire intensity, so cause the change of fire pattern. It is difficult to describe it in a general conception since the affected factor of fire behavior are varied and its complex mechanism. By means of remote sensing and GIS object-oriented as a tool which studies the change law and spatial pattern of fire behavior is an important method for the future .
The paper analyses the present study status of fire spreading research and the affected factors of fire spreading also points out the question and insufficient existing on technology and method about it at present .For the purpose of study on forecasting fire behavior and the visualization of fire spreading simulation,the paper is concentrated on analyzing the different kinds of forest fire spreading models and their application conditions based on setting forth some influencing factors such as fuels .. topography and wind .it is referred that choosing a specified model will play an important role in forecasting the actual fire field .In screening fire spreading model,the four basic principles are put forward,those are the function of model ,the model's individual characteristics and the frequency of model and its testimony . On the basis of this ,this paper puts forwards a new kind of fire spreading and forecast model based on GIS technology ,the remote sensing technology .mathematics modeling .the modeling forecast forest fire by building base database of forest fire .analyzing factors leads to forest fire .building the models about forest fire and prediction .this model can promote develop and perfect theory and technology of forest fire . On the basis of analyses comprehensively the practical requirement of forest fire prevention in Guangzhou City, the paper adopts ArcGIS8.3 , VC++6.0 as the basic platform and ERDAS IMAGINE , mathematics knowledge as sharp tool which designs the basic geography information subsystem , remote sensing real monitor system , computer simulation of fire behavior. Followed this function fire prevention guider can make forceful decision which serve as fire prevention scheme.The main contents and conclusions as follows:
(1) Building the model of fire spreading.
(2) The Basic Geography Information Function. It integrated some GIS function which the fire prevention guider are concerned,such as geography information querying, magnify map , deflate map roaming map , measure map. The design of fireproofing separate line while fire spreading.
(3) Computer simulation of fire behavior. The simulation of fire spreading is a basis for fire behavior forecast.
(4)This system puts forward fire spreading model according to local situation and implements fire behavior simulation successfully on GIS platform through analyses some pertain factors concerned on fire behavior.
论文综合分析了国内外林火蔓延研究的发展状况和影响火蔓延的相关因子，指出当前在技术与方法上存在的问题与不足。提出了火蔓延模型选择的4个基本出发点：模型的功能、模型适用的地区和植被类型、模型的假设条件、模型的检验频数，阐明了几种林火蔓延模型及其适用性，论述了不同林火蔓延模型的选用对实际火场的预测预报的理论意义。全文着重阐述了如何运用基于GIS的林火蔓延模型来模拟林火蔓延规律和火行为的时空格局，在此基础上，提出了一种新的基于GS技术、遥感技术和数学建模等技术的森林火灾预报预测模型，该模型通过建立森林火灾本底数据库，分析森林火灾发生和蔓延诱发因素，探讨了林火发生与蔓延的预报预测理论，以期能促进林火行为预测技术的发展和完善。
研究过程中，以ArcGIS8.3，VC++6.0为研究平台，利用ERDAS IMAGINE、计算机技术和数学知识，实现了基本地理信息子系统功能、卫星遥感实时监测功能。同时进行了林火行为计算机模拟，为林火指挥扑救提供有力的决策支持。本研究的主要内容和结论如下：
(1)综合运用GIS和RS技术、计算机技术及森林防火专业技术设计和开发了广州市森林防火林火行为子系统。
(2)结合广州市的实际情况建立了火行为的蔓延模型，它与GIS的结合使理论研究成果在实践中的应用成为可能，实现了复杂条件下林火蔓延的预测。
(3)基本地理信息系统功能。对扑火指挥员所关心的一些GIS功能进行了集成，如地理信息查询、地图放大、缩小、漫游、测量等功能，火蔓延时防火隔离带的设计。
(4)实现了火行为的模拟和仿真。本系统在分析了影响火行为的各种因子上，选择了适合于当地的林火蔓延模型，并在GIS平台上成功实现了林火蔓延的计算机模拟和仿真。
Fire spreading has the feature of time and space. With the rapid development of 3S spatial information technology and the increasingly growth knowledge of fire disaster ,It pays a more and more important role in conducting fire behavior forecast within the field of fire prevention by means of GIS technology. Fire behavior pattern is closely related with the change of fire intensity. Owing to changeable atmosphere condition, sophisticated terrain and Vegetation distribution, even different fire spreading direction can cause the obviously change of fire intensity, so cause the change of fire pattern. It is difficult to describe it in a general conception since the affected factor of fire behavior are varied and its complex mechanism. By means of remote sensing and GIS object-oriented as a tool which studies the change law and spatial pattern of fire behavior is an important method for the future .
The paper analyses the present study status of fire spreading research and the affected factors of fire spreading also points out the question and insufficient existing on technology and method about it at present .For the purpose of study on forecasting fire behavior and the visualization of fire spreading simulation,the paper is concentrated on analyzing the different kinds of forest fire spreading models and their application conditions based on setting forth some influencing factors such as fuels .. topography and wind .it is referred that choosing a specified model will play an important role in forecasting the actual fire field .In screening fire spreading model,the four basic principles are put forward,those are the function of model ,the model's individual characteristics and the frequency of model and its testimony . On the basis of this ,this paper puts forwards a new kind of fire spreading and forecast model based on GIS technology ,the remote sensing technology .mathematics modeling .the modeling forecast forest fire by building base database of forest fire .analyzing factors leads to forest fire .building the models about forest fire and prediction .this model can promote develop and perfect theory and technology of forest fire . On the basis of analyses comprehensively the practical requirement of forest fire prevention in Guangzhou City, the paper adopts ArcGIS8.3 , VC++6.0 as the basic platform and ERDAS IMAGINE , mathematics knowledge as sharp tool which designs the basic geography information subsystem , remote sensing real monitor system , computer simulation of fire behavior. Followed this function fire prevention guider can make forceful decision which serve as fire prevention scheme.The main contents and conclusions as follows:
(1) Building the model of fire spreading.
(2) The Basic Geography Information Function. It integrated some GIS function which the fire prevention guider are concerned,such as geography information querying, magnify map , deflate map roaming map , measure map. The design of fireproofing separate line while fire spreading.
(3) Computer simulation of fire behavior. The simulation of fire spreading is a basis for fire behavior forecast.
(4)This system puts forward fire spreading model according to local situation and implements fire behavior simulation successfully on GIS platform through analyses some pertain factors concerned on fire behavior.
引文
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