化工园区生产安全免疫机理与模型及免疫力评估研究
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摘要
化工园区已成为国内外石油化工产业发展的主流模式，在产生“集聚”效益的同时，带来了区域的高风险，并可能发生危害巨大的化工事故。因此，化工园区必须定期进行自我“诊断”：隐患排查和风险评估，采取措施抵御和控制风险，以提高化工园区生产安全“免疫力”。加强化工园区生产安全事故预防、预警工作，并提升事故应急、恢复水平，对风险控制工作具有重要意义。本文借鉴仿生学方法，基于生物免疫原理，从以下四个方面开展了化工园区生产安全免疫机理与模型及免疫力评估系统及其应用研究：
1）化工园区生产安全事故发生演化机理和免疫机理剖析。借鉴仿生学方法，将化工园区类比生物体，分析了化工园区安全生产管理体系与生物免疫系统的相似性。基于化工园区生产安全抗体系统和抗原系统的相互作用，探讨了化工园区生产安全事故发生机理和演化过程。分别借鉴生物免疫系统的免疫耐受、免疫识别、免疫稳定、免疫应答、免疫反馈、免疫恢复等功能机理剖析了化工园区危险免疫耐受、隐患识别预警、事故应急、善后恢复四个方面的生产安全免疫机理。
2）化工园区生产安全免疫模型构建和免疫系统建立。以生产安全事故的潜伏、萌芽、暴露、恢复整个发生过程为主线，涵盖化工园区规划、建设、不成熟和成熟运作各个阶段，构建了包括免疫耐受子模型、预警子模型、应急子模型、事故恢复子模型四个子模型的化工园区生产安全免疫模型。从孕育先天建设所具有的天然耐受能力、培养后天管理所培育的获得耐受能力、提高抗原识别水平、强化抗体产生水平、提升非事故状态下的免疫稳定能力、增强事故状态下的免疫应答能力、完善基于免疫反馈的短期事故处理、升级基于免疫恢复的长期恢复重建八个方面建立了化工园区生产安全免疫系统。
3）化工园区生产安全免疫力评估指标体系构建和评估模型研究。应用“正反两面覆盖法”，从先天建设和后天管理两个方面构建了包括19个指标层指标的免疫耐受度评估指标体系，从抗原识别和抗体产生两个方面构建了包括28个指标层指标的基于免疫识别的预警水平评估指标体系，从非事故状态下的免疫稳定和事故状态下的免疫应答两个方面构建了包括22个指标层指标的基于免疫稳定和免疫应答的应急能力评估指标体系，从短期事故处理和长期恢复重建两个方面构建了包括25个指标层指标的基于免疫反馈和免疫恢复的事故恢复程度评估指标体系。通过专家问卷调查，应用改进的层次分析法（IAHP）获取各指标的权重，结合改进的多层次灰色评估法，研究了包括免疫耐受度评估子模型、预警水平评估子模型、应急能力评估子模型、事故恢复程度评估子模型四个子模型的化工园区生产安全免疫力评估模型。
4）化工园区生产安全免疫力评估系统软件编制及应用。用Microsoft Visual C#语言编制了包括四个评估子模型对应模块的化工园区生产安全免疫力评估系统软件，并应用于某省两个化工园区。应用结果表明：评估者可应用评估系统软件对化工园区的免疫耐受度、预警水平、应急能力、事故恢复程度的免疫力单方面进行评估，也可对化工园区的整体免疫力进行评估；评估结果与实际情况相符，可识别化工园区自身的免疫脆弱项或缺陷，提供了优化免疫力水平的措施建议，达到了实现化工园区生产安全“自我”调节保障的预期目的。
Chemical industry park (CIP) has become the main development pattern of the chemicaland petroleum industry wor ldwide. CIP brings not only be nefits but also high risk, anddangerous chemical accidents may take place. In order to improve the “immunity” of worksafety, CIP should be self “diagnosed” regularly: hidden danger inve stigation and riskassessment, and take measures to resist and control risk. Obviously, it is really meaningful forcontroling risk, to enhance the level of prevention and early warning and improve thecapability of emergency respo nse and recovery of CIP. Under the guidance of bionics method,based on the biological immune principle, this paper focused on the research of immunemechanism, model, and immunity evaluation system of work safety for CIP from the fourfollowing aspects:
1) The evolution mechanism of accident and immune mechanism of work safety of CIPwere analyzed. Under the guidance of bionics method, put the CIP with organisms analogy,the similarity between work safety management system of CIP and biological immune systemwas analyzed. Based on the interreaction of antibod y system and antige n system of worksafety of CIP, the evolution mechanism of accident of CIP was discussed. Drawing lessonsfrom the function and mechanism of immune tolerance, immune recognition, immune stability,immune response, immune feedback and immune recovery of the biological immune system,the work safety immune mechanism of danger immune tolerance, hazard identifiction andearly warning, accident emergency and accident rehabilitation of CIP were analyzed.
2) The work safety immune mode l and immune system of CIP was built. Taking themain evolution processes(incubation, forming, occurring and recovery stages) of accident asthe main line, covering the planning, construction, operation immature and maturity stages ofCIP, the work safety immune model of CIP was built, which includes immune tolerancemodel, early warning model, emergency model and accident recovery model. Thecorresponding work safety immune system of CIP was also built from eight respects ofcultivating the natural tolerance ability of congenital construction and obtained toleranceability of later management, improving the level of antigen recognition and antibody production, enhancing the ability of immune homeostasis in non-accident state and immuneresponse under accident conditions, improving short-term accident treatment based onimmune feedback and long-term reconstruction based on immune recovery.
3) The assessment index system and evaluation model of work safety immunity of CIPwere studied. The method of covering both sides was used,19indexes were built to measurethe ability of work safety immune tolerance of CIP based on the congenital construction andlater management,28indexes were built to measure the leve l of work safety early warning ofCIP based on antigen recognition and antibody production,22indexes were built to measurethe ability of immune homeostasis in non-accident state and immune response under accidentconditions of CIP,25indexes were built to measure the accident recovery degree based onimmune feedback and immune recovery from two aspects of short-term accident treatmentand long-term reconstruction. The weights of indexes were obtained by the method of IAHPand expert investigation questionnaires, and the improved gray multilevel evaluation methodwere applied to establish the assessment model of work safety immunity of CIP, whichconsist of four submodel.
4) The software of immunity evaluation system of CIP was for mated and applied.Microsoft Visual C#was used to develop the immunity evaluation system of CIP, and theevaluation system was applied by two CIP of some Province. The results showed that:Theevaluator can not only use the immunity evaluation software system of CIP to assess thedegree of immune tolerance, early warning level, emergency ability, the degree of accidentrecovery of CIP individual, but also to assess the whole immunity of CIP; the assessmentresults correspond with the actual situation, and the own immune weaknesses or deficienciesof CIP can also be identified, advises and measures for optimizing the immunity of CIP arealso provided, the purpose of the work safety “self” regulation guarantee of CIP are achieved.
1）化工园区生产安全事故发生演化机理和免疫机理剖析。借鉴仿生学方法，将化工园区类比生物体，分析了化工园区安全生产管理体系与生物免疫系统的相似性。基于化工园区生产安全抗体系统和抗原系统的相互作用，探讨了化工园区生产安全事故发生机理和演化过程。分别借鉴生物免疫系统的免疫耐受、免疫识别、免疫稳定、免疫应答、免疫反馈、免疫恢复等功能机理剖析了化工园区危险免疫耐受、隐患识别预警、事故应急、善后恢复四个方面的生产安全免疫机理。
2）化工园区生产安全免疫模型构建和免疫系统建立。以生产安全事故的潜伏、萌芽、暴露、恢复整个发生过程为主线，涵盖化工园区规划、建设、不成熟和成熟运作各个阶段，构建了包括免疫耐受子模型、预警子模型、应急子模型、事故恢复子模型四个子模型的化工园区生产安全免疫模型。从孕育先天建设所具有的天然耐受能力、培养后天管理所培育的获得耐受能力、提高抗原识别水平、强化抗体产生水平、提升非事故状态下的免疫稳定能力、增强事故状态下的免疫应答能力、完善基于免疫反馈的短期事故处理、升级基于免疫恢复的长期恢复重建八个方面建立了化工园区生产安全免疫系统。
3）化工园区生产安全免疫力评估指标体系构建和评估模型研究。应用“正反两面覆盖法”，从先天建设和后天管理两个方面构建了包括19个指标层指标的免疫耐受度评估指标体系，从抗原识别和抗体产生两个方面构建了包括28个指标层指标的基于免疫识别的预警水平评估指标体系，从非事故状态下的免疫稳定和事故状态下的免疫应答两个方面构建了包括22个指标层指标的基于免疫稳定和免疫应答的应急能力评估指标体系，从短期事故处理和长期恢复重建两个方面构建了包括25个指标层指标的基于免疫反馈和免疫恢复的事故恢复程度评估指标体系。通过专家问卷调查，应用改进的层次分析法（IAHP）获取各指标的权重，结合改进的多层次灰色评估法，研究了包括免疫耐受度评估子模型、预警水平评估子模型、应急能力评估子模型、事故恢复程度评估子模型四个子模型的化工园区生产安全免疫力评估模型。
4）化工园区生产安全免疫力评估系统软件编制及应用。用Microsoft Visual C#语言编制了包括四个评估子模型对应模块的化工园区生产安全免疫力评估系统软件，并应用于某省两个化工园区。应用结果表明：评估者可应用评估系统软件对化工园区的免疫耐受度、预警水平、应急能力、事故恢复程度的免疫力单方面进行评估，也可对化工园区的整体免疫力进行评估；评估结果与实际情况相符，可识别化工园区自身的免疫脆弱项或缺陷，提供了优化免疫力水平的措施建议，达到了实现化工园区生产安全“自我”调节保障的预期目的。
Chemical industry park (CIP) has become the main development pattern of the chemicaland petroleum industry wor ldwide. CIP brings not only be nefits but also high risk, anddangerous chemical accidents may take place. In order to improve the “immunity” of worksafety, CIP should be self “diagnosed” regularly: hidden danger inve stigation and riskassessment, and take measures to resist and control risk. Obviously, it is really meaningful forcontroling risk, to enhance the level of prevention and early warning and improve thecapability of emergency respo nse and recovery of CIP. Under the guidance of bionics method,based on the biological immune principle, this paper focused on the research of immunemechanism, model, and immunity evaluation system of work safety for CIP from the fourfollowing aspects:
1) The evolution mechanism of accident and immune mechanism of work safety of CIPwere analyzed. Under the guidance of bionics method, put the CIP with organisms analogy,the similarity between work safety management system of CIP and biological immune systemwas analyzed. Based on the interreaction of antibod y system and antige n system of worksafety of CIP, the evolution mechanism of accident of CIP was discussed. Drawing lessonsfrom the function and mechanism of immune tolerance, immune recognition, immune stability,immune response, immune feedback and immune recovery of the biological immune system,the work safety immune mechanism of danger immune tolerance, hazard identifiction andearly warning, accident emergency and accident rehabilitation of CIP were analyzed.
2) The work safety immune mode l and immune system of CIP was built. Taking themain evolution processes(incubation, forming, occurring and recovery stages) of accident asthe main line, covering the planning, construction, operation immature and maturity stages ofCIP, the work safety immune model of CIP was built, which includes immune tolerancemodel, early warning model, emergency model and accident recovery model. Thecorresponding work safety immune system of CIP was also built from eight respects ofcultivating the natural tolerance ability of congenital construction and obtained toleranceability of later management, improving the level of antigen recognition and antibody production, enhancing the ability of immune homeostasis in non-accident state and immuneresponse under accident conditions, improving short-term accident treatment based onimmune feedback and long-term reconstruction based on immune recovery.
3) The assessment index system and evaluation model of work safety immunity of CIPwere studied. The method of covering both sides was used,19indexes were built to measurethe ability of work safety immune tolerance of CIP based on the congenital construction andlater management,28indexes were built to measure the leve l of work safety early warning ofCIP based on antigen recognition and antibody production,22indexes were built to measurethe ability of immune homeostasis in non-accident state and immune response under accidentconditions of CIP,25indexes were built to measure the accident recovery degree based onimmune feedback and immune recovery from two aspects of short-term accident treatmentand long-term reconstruction. The weights of indexes were obtained by the method of IAHPand expert investigation questionnaires, and the improved gray multilevel evaluation methodwere applied to establish the assessment model of work safety immunity of CIP, whichconsist of four submodel.
4) The software of immunity evaluation system of CIP was for mated and applied.Microsoft Visual C#was used to develop the immunity evaluation system of CIP, and theevaluation system was applied by two CIP of some Province. The results showed that:Theevaluator can not only use the immunity evaluation software system of CIP to assess thedegree of immune tolerance, early warning level, emergency ability, the degree of accidentrecovery of CIP individual, but also to assess the whole immunity of CIP; the assessmentresults correspond with the actual situation, and the own immune weaknesses or deficienciesof CIP can also be identified, advises and measures for optimizing the immunity of CIP arealso provided, the purpose of the work safety “self” regulation guarantee of CIP are achieved.
引文
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