国际外包的承接对我国经济效应的实证研究
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摘要
承接国际制造业外包和国际产业转移是我国加入WTO以来经济生活中出现的最显著特征,对我国经济与社会生活产生了重大影响。如何评估和正确检验承接国际外包对我国的影响,具有很强的现实意义。本文主要侧重于从实证角度,就我国外包的测度与历史发展演变、承接外包对我国劳动需求、行业生产率和产业价值链升级的影响进行了理论和实证研究。
本文首先对外包的定义和内涵做了辨析,并总结归纳了几种常用的测度指标。在对我国外包率的测度中,本文采用了垂直专业化指数从承接的角度度量了我国的行业外包率和整体外包率,并引进外包发展指数的概念,利用迪氏加权平均指数分解方法(WMDI),将我国外包发展指数分解为出口结构效应和外包率效应,对我国外包发展的动因进行了分析。研究结果显示,我国承接国际外包整体上以物质外包为主,服务外包占的比例很小。不同类型行业的外包率演变趋势有所不同,资源密集型行业、资本密集型行业和技术密集型行业的外包率逐年稳步提高,而劳动密集型行业的外包率逐渐下降。对我国外包发展指数波动的分解表明,资源密集型行业、资本密集型行业和技术密集型行业外包率的提高及后两种类型行业出口份额的增加促进了我国外包发展指数的提高,而劳动密集型行业外包率和出口份额的下降对我国外包发展指数提高有负面影响。
在外包的生产率效应的实证中,本文采用Malmquist指数测算我国行业的全要素生产率,并将全要素生产率分解为技术进步和技术效率,再采用行业面板数据就外包的行业生产率效应进行了实证分析。实证中将外包分为物质外包和服务外包两种类型,分行业部门讨论不同类型外包对我国行业全要素生产率、技术进步和技术效率的影响。实证结果认为自主研发是我国生产率提高的主要因素,国际外包有助于提高我国的生产率。其中服务外包的生产率效应要大于物质外包,服务外包在促进技术进步和提高技术效率方面均有较大作用。资本投入有助于提高行业生产率,而劳动投入既不能提高技术水平也不能促进技术进步,因而也不能提高生产率。
在外包的劳动需求效应的研究。本章首先就外包影响劳动需求进行了理论分析,再采用行业面板数据就外包的行业劳动需求效应进行了实证研究。实证中本文从承接外包的角度,就外包的劳动需求效应提出假设,并采用标准劳动需求方程模型,基于我国2002-2007年的25个制造业行业面板数据实证考察了承接国际外包对我国劳动需求的总量效应和结构效应。研究结论显示,我国承接国际外包促进了劳动需求总量的增长,但其对不同行业的影响程度表现出很大的差异。劳动密集型产业、高技术行业和出口导向型行业国际外包的承接对我国劳动需求的增长具有积极的促进作用,而承接资本密集型行业和进口替代型行业的国际外包对劳动需求的增长存在负面效应。
外包对我国产业结构升级的影响研究中,首先介绍了产业升级的含义和层次,产业升级共分为工序升级、价值链升级和产业链升级三个层次,以案例分析方法说明就外包对我国产业三个层次升级的影响做出分析,最后就我国企业国际化道路提出启示和政策建议。
Undertaking international manufacturing outsourcing and international industry transfer has been the most significant features of the economic life of China since it Jioned to WTO which has a major impact on the economic and social life of our country Undertake the assessment and proper test the impact of international outsourcing on China is of great practical significance. From the empirical point, This article has made the theoretical and empirical research on the measure of our outsourcing and historical evolution, the labor demand effect productivity effect of outsourcing.
Firstly, the article definied the outsourcing concept and summarized several commonly used measure indicators. Based on the methods of Hummels and China's input-output tables, this paper then estimates the overall outsourcing rate, material outsourcing rate and services outsourcing rate of material production sectors of 23 industries as a whole from the perspective of undertake international outsourcing and analyzes the evolution of outsourcing rate for different types industry. Then use the definition of outsourcing development index and Divisia weighted average index decomposition method, this paper decomposes outsourcing development index into export structure effect and the outsourcing rate effect to analyze the development of China's outsourcing. The results show that the most of International Outsourcing china undertaked is material outsourcing. For different types of industry, The evolution trend of international outsourcing in the rate of evolution is different the outsourcing rate of resource-intensive industries, capital-intensive industries and technology-intensive industry steadily increased year by year, while the outsourcing rate of labor-intensive industries declined. The decomposition of China's outsourcing development index shows that the outsourcing rate increase of resource-intensive industries, capital-intensive industries and technology-intensive industry and the increase in export share of the latter two types of industry promote the improvement of China's outsourcing development index, the decline of outsourcing rate and the export share the labor-intensive industry has a negative impact on the China's outsourcing development index. Based on the of empirical findings, some policy suggestion are put forward for upgrading China's international outsourcing。
Secondly, this article made a empirical study of productivity effects of outsourcing. Used Malmquist index as the measure of the total factor productivity of and decomposed total factor productivity into technological progress and technical efficiency, based on industry panel data, this article made a empirical study of the productivity effects of outsourcing. Empirical results show that independent research and development is a major factor in China's productivity growth, international outsourcing is helpful to improve the productivity of our country. the productivity effect of service outsourcing is greater than that of material outsourcing, Both service outsourcing and material outsourcing have a greater role in the promotion of technological progress and improve technical efficiency. Capital investment can improve industry productivity, While labor inputs can not improve the technical efficiency and can not promote technical progress, and therefore can not increase productivity.
Thirdly, Applied 2002-2007China's 25 manufacturing industry data and based on panel data model, this paper had make a empirical tests about the labor demand effects of international outsourcing from the perspective of undertaking international manufacturing transfer. The results shows that undertaking the international outsourcing has promoted the growth of China's labor demand, undertaking the international outsourcing of Labor-intensive industries, high-tech industries and export-oriented industry has a positive role in promoting the growth of China's labor demand, while undertaking the international outsourcing of the capital-intensive industry, low-technology industries has negative effects on employment growth.
Finally, this paper had make a study of the impact of Outsourcing on the Industrial Upgrading。This part introduced the meaning and level of industrial upgrading, industrial upgrading including process upgrading, the value chain upgrading and industrial chain upgrading, Based on case studies,the papers analyze the impact of outsourcing on the industry upgrades and some policy suggestion are put forward for upgrading China's international outsourcing。
本文首先对外包的定义和内涵做了辨析,并总结归纳了几种常用的测度指标。在对我国外包率的测度中,本文采用了垂直专业化指数从承接的角度度量了我国的行业外包率和整体外包率,并引进外包发展指数的概念,利用迪氏加权平均指数分解方法(WMDI),将我国外包发展指数分解为出口结构效应和外包率效应,对我国外包发展的动因进行了分析。研究结果显示,我国承接国际外包整体上以物质外包为主,服务外包占的比例很小。不同类型行业的外包率演变趋势有所不同,资源密集型行业、资本密集型行业和技术密集型行业的外包率逐年稳步提高,而劳动密集型行业的外包率逐渐下降。对我国外包发展指数波动的分解表明,资源密集型行业、资本密集型行业和技术密集型行业外包率的提高及后两种类型行业出口份额的增加促进了我国外包发展指数的提高,而劳动密集型行业外包率和出口份额的下降对我国外包发展指数提高有负面影响。
在外包的生产率效应的实证中,本文采用Malmquist指数测算我国行业的全要素生产率,并将全要素生产率分解为技术进步和技术效率,再采用行业面板数据就外包的行业生产率效应进行了实证分析。实证中将外包分为物质外包和服务外包两种类型,分行业部门讨论不同类型外包对我国行业全要素生产率、技术进步和技术效率的影响。实证结果认为自主研发是我国生产率提高的主要因素,国际外包有助于提高我国的生产率。其中服务外包的生产率效应要大于物质外包,服务外包在促进技术进步和提高技术效率方面均有较大作用。资本投入有助于提高行业生产率,而劳动投入既不能提高技术水平也不能促进技术进步,因而也不能提高生产率。
在外包的劳动需求效应的研究。本章首先就外包影响劳动需求进行了理论分析,再采用行业面板数据就外包的行业劳动需求效应进行了实证研究。实证中本文从承接外包的角度,就外包的劳动需求效应提出假设,并采用标准劳动需求方程模型,基于我国2002-2007年的25个制造业行业面板数据实证考察了承接国际外包对我国劳动需求的总量效应和结构效应。研究结论显示,我国承接国际外包促进了劳动需求总量的增长,但其对不同行业的影响程度表现出很大的差异。劳动密集型产业、高技术行业和出口导向型行业国际外包的承接对我国劳动需求的增长具有积极的促进作用,而承接资本密集型行业和进口替代型行业的国际外包对劳动需求的增长存在负面效应。
外包对我国产业结构升级的影响研究中,首先介绍了产业升级的含义和层次,产业升级共分为工序升级、价值链升级和产业链升级三个层次,以案例分析方法说明就外包对我国产业三个层次升级的影响做出分析,最后就我国企业国际化道路提出启示和政策建议。
Undertaking international manufacturing outsourcing and international industry transfer has been the most significant features of the economic life of China since it Jioned to WTO which has a major impact on the economic and social life of our country Undertake the assessment and proper test the impact of international outsourcing on China is of great practical significance. From the empirical point, This article has made the theoretical and empirical research on the measure of our outsourcing and historical evolution, the labor demand effect productivity effect of outsourcing.
Firstly, the article definied the outsourcing concept and summarized several commonly used measure indicators. Based on the methods of Hummels and China's input-output tables, this paper then estimates the overall outsourcing rate, material outsourcing rate and services outsourcing rate of material production sectors of 23 industries as a whole from the perspective of undertake international outsourcing and analyzes the evolution of outsourcing rate for different types industry. Then use the definition of outsourcing development index and Divisia weighted average index decomposition method, this paper decomposes outsourcing development index into export structure effect and the outsourcing rate effect to analyze the development of China's outsourcing. The results show that the most of International Outsourcing china undertaked is material outsourcing. For different types of industry, The evolution trend of international outsourcing in the rate of evolution is different the outsourcing rate of resource-intensive industries, capital-intensive industries and technology-intensive industry steadily increased year by year, while the outsourcing rate of labor-intensive industries declined. The decomposition of China's outsourcing development index shows that the outsourcing rate increase of resource-intensive industries, capital-intensive industries and technology-intensive industry and the increase in export share of the latter two types of industry promote the improvement of China's outsourcing development index, the decline of outsourcing rate and the export share the labor-intensive industry has a negative impact on the China's outsourcing development index. Based on the of empirical findings, some policy suggestion are put forward for upgrading China's international outsourcing。
Secondly, this article made a empirical study of productivity effects of outsourcing. Used Malmquist index as the measure of the total factor productivity of and decomposed total factor productivity into technological progress and technical efficiency, based on industry panel data, this article made a empirical study of the productivity effects of outsourcing. Empirical results show that independent research and development is a major factor in China's productivity growth, international outsourcing is helpful to improve the productivity of our country. the productivity effect of service outsourcing is greater than that of material outsourcing, Both service outsourcing and material outsourcing have a greater role in the promotion of technological progress and improve technical efficiency. Capital investment can improve industry productivity, While labor inputs can not improve the technical efficiency and can not promote technical progress, and therefore can not increase productivity.
Thirdly, Applied 2002-2007China's 25 manufacturing industry data and based on panel data model, this paper had make a empirical tests about the labor demand effects of international outsourcing from the perspective of undertaking international manufacturing transfer. The results shows that undertaking the international outsourcing has promoted the growth of China's labor demand, undertaking the international outsourcing of Labor-intensive industries, high-tech industries and export-oriented industry has a positive role in promoting the growth of China's labor demand, while undertaking the international outsourcing of the capital-intensive industry, low-technology industries has negative effects on employment growth.
Finally, this paper had make a study of the impact of Outsourcing on the Industrial Upgrading。This part introduced the meaning and level of industrial upgrading, industrial upgrading including process upgrading, the value chain upgrading and industrial chain upgrading, Based on case studies,the papers analyze the impact of outsourcing on the industry upgrades and some policy suggestion are put forward for upgrading China's international outsourcing。
引文
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