中国贸易成本及其效应的经验分析
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摘要
传统的贸易理论虽然认为贸易成本限制了商品和要素价格的均等化,.减少了贸易量,但没有改变传统贸易模式的决定因素——比较优势。因此,在传统的贸易理论中,贸易成本几乎完全被排除在外了。但是,随着国际贸易的不断发展、变化以及贸易理论的不断创新,越来越多的学者认识到贸易成本的重要性。在新经济地理学、新-新贸易理论中,贸易成本都是核心概念之一。
由于科学技术的进步,尤其是运输和通讯技术的飞跃发展,以距离为基础的贸易成本确实减少了,以至于很多人惊呼“距离的死亡”。然而,即使是在全球化的今天,国际贸易仍然受到贸易成本的困扰,不容忽视,甚至有些学者认为“贸易成本是打开所有其他开放宏观经济学之谜的钥匙。”因此,全面、深入、系统的研究贸易成本及其效应,具有非常重要的理论意义。
自改革开放以来,中国正日益融入全球经济一体化之中,中国已经由改革开放初的贸易小国转变为世界贸易大国。作为一个处于高速发展的发展中国家,中国的开放程度是国内外长期关注的焦点。传统上往往采用贸易依存度和资本流动等间接指标来衡量中国的开放程度。这类指标虽然方便易行,但往往掩盖了具体因素的影响。如果能够测度中国的贸易成本,不仅给中国的日益开放提供直接的证据,而且对于理解中国参与国际分工和专业化模式也至关重要。进一步地,对贸易成本的决定因素进行经验分析、研究贸易成本的效应,例如贸易成本的本地市场效应、贸易成本的FDI区位选择的影响以及贸易成本的生产率的效应等等,将为中国的改革开放和经济发展提供丰富的政策内涵。特别是在经济危机时期,研究贸易成本及其效应,对于如何克服经济危机的影响,可以提出有益的政策性建议。
本文共分七章。
第一章,导论。主要包括选题意义、国内外研究现状、论文的结构安排,研究方法以及论文的创新等几个组成部分。
第二章,贸易成本的估计。首先,介绍了目前测度贸易成本的几种方法,并分析了每种方法的优缺点,在此基础上引出了本文贸易成本估计的模型,并估计了我国与十五个主要贸易伙伴国的双边贸易成本。研究结论显示：1980～2007年中国与十五个主要贸易伙伴国关税等价的双边贸易成本有了显著的下降,年均下降率为2.51%。特别是在2001年中国加入WTO后,贸易成本下降明显。随后,对我国贸易成本的决定因素进行实证分析,结果表明,双边的贸易成本主要与距离、关税、制度、基础设施以及是否签订了自由贸易区等因素有关。最后,介绍了我国降低贸易成本所采取的措施。
第三章,贸易成本的国际贸易效应。首先,在贸易成本估计的模型上分析了贸易成本对贸易总量的影响,结果显示贸易成本的下降促进了我国对外贸易的增长。随后,通过理论模型分析了贸易成本对垂直专业化贸易的影响,发现贸易成本的下降促使垂直专业化贸易呈现出非线性的增长,随着垂直专业化分工的生产阶段的增加,贸易成本的下降对垂直专业化贸易的放大效应将不断增加,最后,利用我国的数据进行了实证分析。实证分析的结果和理论分析相一致,并且垂直专业化贸易与贸易成本存在着Granger因果关系。
第四章,贸易成本的本地市场效应。首先,在摒弃传统的本地市场效应模型中的一些基本假设条件之后,本地市场效应仍然存在,并且贸易成本的降低会强化本地市场效应。随后,利用中国的数据,估计1992-2008年间中国与主要贸易伙伴国双边贸易中的本地市场效应,结果发现在规模经济、贸易成本存在的情况下,我国与主要贸易伙伴的10大类产品当中,有5类产品存在显著的本地市场效应。在35个制造业行业当中有10个行业存在显著的本地市场效应。本地市场效应正成为我国对外贸易的重要源泉之一。最后,通过1992-2001年与2002-2008年两个时期本地市场效应的比较分析,发现在1992-2001年间,在35个行业当中只有6个行业出现本地市场效应,而2001年我国加入WTO后,有15个行业出现了本地市场效应,贸易成本的下降促进了我国本地市场效应的形成。这和理论分析相吻合。
第五章,贸易成本的FDI区位选择效应。首先,从新经济地理学的角度,理论上分析了贸易成本对FDI区位选择的影响。贸易成本的变化将会影响集聚力和分散力的大小,从而影响跨国厂商的区位选择。在垂直型的FDI区位选择模型中,对于发展中国家而言,集聚力主要来源于与母国要素禀赋之间的差异,而贸易成本的下降将进一步增强集聚力。随后,利用中国的经验数据,也进一步证实了中国贸易成本的下降是外商选择中国的区位因素之一。最后,从贸易成本的角度分析了我国中、西部地区吸收FDI偏少的原因,主要是由于中、西部地区的贸易成本明显高于东部地区,表现为中、西部地区位置偏远,运输成本远远高于东部地区；基础设施不完善,交通信息成本高于东部地区；制度成本高于东部地区,增加了投资者的风险和不确定性。
第六章,贸易成本的生产率效应。首先,从理论上分析了贸易成本下降促进行业生产率增长的微观机理。贸易成本的下降可以通过两个途径促进行业生产率的增长：其一是行业内资源重置效应,贸易成本的下降所带来的出口扩张,促使行业内低效率企业退出(贸易自由化的选择效应)和存活企业中市场份额从低效率企业向高效率企业转移(生产再分配效应),从而促进行业生产率增长；其二是企业技术进步效应,贸易成本可以影响企业的技术选择行为.当贸易成本下降时,更多的企业将选择高技术。企业的技术进步和行业内技术溢出将提高行业生产率。随后,利用中国1980-2007年相关数据进行协整检验,实证分析结果表明贸易成本、全要素生产率之间存在着唯一的协整关系,贸易成本的下降促进了全要素生产率的增长。
第七章,结论与政策建议。首先,总结了本文的几点基本结论；之后提出了相关的政策建议。在金融危机时期,降低贸易成本对对外贸易的发展十分重要,特别是灵活的自由贸易区战略显得更为重要。在贸易成本、规模经济存在的情况下,内需与出口之间不一定是相互替代的,反而可能是相互促进的,庞大的国内市场也可以成为国际贸易优势的来源。因此,在中国贸易政策取向上,除了继续重视外部市场外,还应将重心放在国内市场的开发和培育上,而降低贸易成本,可以强化本地市场效应。
Although trade cost restricts equalization of goods and factor's price and reduces trade volume in the traditional trade theories, it doesn't change determinants of traditional trade pattern-comparative advantage. So, in the traditional trade theories, trade cost is almost ignored. But with the developments and changes of international trade and with the innovation of trade theories, more and more scholars realize the importance of trade cost. Trade cost is one of the core concepts in the New Trade Theory, the New Economic Geography, and the New-New Trade Theory.
Owing to the progress of science and technology, especially the drastic developments of transportation and communication technology, trade cost based on distance is really reduced so much that many people exclaim "the death of distance". But even today in the economic globalization, international trade is perplexed by trade cost, which shouldn't be ignored. So it has important theoretical significance to study trade cost and its effects comprehensively, deeply and systematically.
Since reform and opening up, China has been merged into the integrative system of global economy, and China has transformed from small trade country in the early age of reform and opening up into big trade country in the world. As a developing country with rapid developments, China's opening degree has been the focus of attention at home and abroad. Traditionally, indirect indexes such as foreign trade dependence and capital flow et al are usually used to measure China's opening degree. These indexes are very convenient and simple, but they always conceal the impact of specific factors. If China's trade cost can be measured, it not only provides direct evidences for China's gradually opening up, but also it's of importance to understand the pattern of China's participation in the international division and specialization. Furthermore, Empirical analysis on determinants of trade cost and study on effects of trade cost, such as home market effects of trade cost, effects of trade cost on location choice of FDI and effects of trade cost on productivity will provide abundant policy implication for China's reform and opening up and economic developments.Especially in the period of economic crisis, it may put forward policy suggestions for overcoming the influence of economic crisis to study on trade cost and its effects.
The paper is consisted of seven chapters.
ChapterⅠ:Introduction. The main content is to introduce the significance of the research, related research, the paper's structure, research methods, and innovations of the paper.
ChapterⅡ:Measurement of trade cost. First of all, it introduces several methods of measuring trade cost and analyses their advantages and disadvantages.On the basis of it, the model of measuring trade cost of this paper is derived. And bilateral trade cost between China and its 15 major trade partners is measured. The results show that the tariff equivalent bilateral trade cost between China and its 15 major trade partners has fell significantly from 1980 to 2007;the annual falling rate is 2.51 per cent. Especially after access to WTO, the trend is accelerated to decline. Subsequently, an empirical analysis on the determinants of China's trade cost is made.The empirical results show that bilateral trade cost is related to distance, institute, infrastructures and their common free trade areas. At last, it describes the measures to reduce trade cost in China.
ChapterⅢ:Effects of trade cost on International Trade. First, on the basis of the model, it analyses the effects of trade cost on trade volume. The results show that the decreasing of trade cost promotes the growth of China's foreign trade. Secondly, it studies effects of trade cost on vertical specialization trade by a theoretical model.The decreasing of trade-cost-impels non-linear growth of vertical specialization-trade. As the number of production stages increases, the magnification effect of trade cots on vertical specialization trade increases.At last it makes an empirical analysis using China's data. The empirical analysis is consistent with theoretical analysis; and there exists Granger causality relationship between vertical specialization trade and trade cost in China.
ChapterⅣ:Home Market Effects of trade cost. First, by the means of changing some basic assumptions in the traditional model of Home Market Effects, Home Market Effects still emerge.And higher trade cost attenuates Home Market Effects. Secondly, the paper measures Home Market Effects between China and its major trade partners' bilateral trade using China's data from 1992 to 2008.The results show that in the world of increasing scale and trade cost, Home Market Effects exist in five products among ten products; and in thirty-five manufactures, there are ten industrial products which have Home Market Effects. Therefore, Home Market Effect is becoming one of the most important sources of comparative advantages which cause to export from China to other countries. At last, the paper compares Home Market Effects between the period of 1992 to 2001 and the period of 2002 to 2008.The comparison shows that there exist Home Market Effects in six industrial products during the period of 1992 to 2001,but after access to WTO in 2001,there exist Home Market Effects in 15 industrial products during the 2002 to 2008, the lower trade cost accentuates Home Market Effects in China, which is in consistent with theoretical analysis.
ChapterⅤ:Effects of trade cost on location choice of EDI.First, from the perspective of the New Economic Geography, the text analyses theoretically the effects of trade cost on location choice of FDI. The changes of trade cost will influence the force of convergence and divergence, which will affect the location choice of FDI.In the model of vertical multinational firms, from the point view of developing countries, the force of convergence comes form the factor endowment differences between home country and host country; and the declining of trade cost will reinforce the force of convergence. Secondly, the empirical analysis based on China's data shows that the declining of trade cost is one of location factors of FDI choosing China. At last, the chapter analyses the reason why quantity of FDI in central and western China is small in the perspective of trade cost. It is mainly because trade cost of central and western China is higher than that of eastern China. Owing to remote geographic location, transportation cost is higher than that of eastern China; transportation and information cost is higher than that of eastern China due to imperfect infrastructures;and higher institutional costs increase investors'risk and uncertainty.
Chapter VI:Effects of trade cost on Productivity. First, the chapter studies theoretically the micro-mechanism of the effects of trade cost on industrial productivity. Trade cost promotes the growth of industrial productivity by two ways.One way is intra-industrial reallocation effects.The declining of trade cost leads to export expansion, low-productive firms exit (market selection effect) and the resource is reallocated toward higher-productive firms (market share effect), therefore the industrial productivity increases. Another way is technical progress effects of firms. Trade cost may influence the technique choices of firms;more firms will choose High-Tec technology when trade cost is declining. Technical progress in firms and spillover in industry promote the growth of industrial productivity. Secondly, the chapter makes a co-integration analysis using Chinese related data from 1980 to 2007.The empirical results show that the co-integration relationship exists between trade and total factor productivity. The declining of trade cost really promotes the growth of total factor productivity.
Chapter VII:Conclusions. The paper makes some basic research conclusions and provides the corresponding policy implications and suggestions. In the period of economic crisis, it's important to reduce trade cost to promote Chinese foreign trade development, especially establishing flexible Free Trade Areas.Under the condition of increasing and trade cost, domestic demand and export may not replace each other, instead they may promote each other. Enormous home markets can be one of sources of international trade advantages.Therefore, Chinese trade policy should continue to emphasize external market, but also pay attention to developing and cultivating home markets.Reducing trade cost can accentuate Home Market Effects.
由于科学技术的进步,尤其是运输和通讯技术的飞跃发展,以距离为基础的贸易成本确实减少了,以至于很多人惊呼“距离的死亡”。然而,即使是在全球化的今天,国际贸易仍然受到贸易成本的困扰,不容忽视,甚至有些学者认为“贸易成本是打开所有其他开放宏观经济学之谜的钥匙。”因此,全面、深入、系统的研究贸易成本及其效应,具有非常重要的理论意义。
自改革开放以来,中国正日益融入全球经济一体化之中,中国已经由改革开放初的贸易小国转变为世界贸易大国。作为一个处于高速发展的发展中国家,中国的开放程度是国内外长期关注的焦点。传统上往往采用贸易依存度和资本流动等间接指标来衡量中国的开放程度。这类指标虽然方便易行,但往往掩盖了具体因素的影响。如果能够测度中国的贸易成本,不仅给中国的日益开放提供直接的证据,而且对于理解中国参与国际分工和专业化模式也至关重要。进一步地,对贸易成本的决定因素进行经验分析、研究贸易成本的效应,例如贸易成本的本地市场效应、贸易成本的FDI区位选择的影响以及贸易成本的生产率的效应等等,将为中国的改革开放和经济发展提供丰富的政策内涵。特别是在经济危机时期,研究贸易成本及其效应,对于如何克服经济危机的影响,可以提出有益的政策性建议。
本文共分七章。
第一章,导论。主要包括选题意义、国内外研究现状、论文的结构安排,研究方法以及论文的创新等几个组成部分。
第二章,贸易成本的估计。首先,介绍了目前测度贸易成本的几种方法,并分析了每种方法的优缺点,在此基础上引出了本文贸易成本估计的模型,并估计了我国与十五个主要贸易伙伴国的双边贸易成本。研究结论显示：1980～2007年中国与十五个主要贸易伙伴国关税等价的双边贸易成本有了显著的下降,年均下降率为2.51%。特别是在2001年中国加入WTO后,贸易成本下降明显。随后,对我国贸易成本的决定因素进行实证分析,结果表明,双边的贸易成本主要与距离、关税、制度、基础设施以及是否签订了自由贸易区等因素有关。最后,介绍了我国降低贸易成本所采取的措施。
第三章,贸易成本的国际贸易效应。首先,在贸易成本估计的模型上分析了贸易成本对贸易总量的影响,结果显示贸易成本的下降促进了我国对外贸易的增长。随后,通过理论模型分析了贸易成本对垂直专业化贸易的影响,发现贸易成本的下降促使垂直专业化贸易呈现出非线性的增长,随着垂直专业化分工的生产阶段的增加,贸易成本的下降对垂直专业化贸易的放大效应将不断增加,最后,利用我国的数据进行了实证分析。实证分析的结果和理论分析相一致,并且垂直专业化贸易与贸易成本存在着Granger因果关系。
第四章,贸易成本的本地市场效应。首先,在摒弃传统的本地市场效应模型中的一些基本假设条件之后,本地市场效应仍然存在,并且贸易成本的降低会强化本地市场效应。随后,利用中国的数据,估计1992-2008年间中国与主要贸易伙伴国双边贸易中的本地市场效应,结果发现在规模经济、贸易成本存在的情况下,我国与主要贸易伙伴的10大类产品当中,有5类产品存在显著的本地市场效应。在35个制造业行业当中有10个行业存在显著的本地市场效应。本地市场效应正成为我国对外贸易的重要源泉之一。最后,通过1992-2001年与2002-2008年两个时期本地市场效应的比较分析,发现在1992-2001年间,在35个行业当中只有6个行业出现本地市场效应,而2001年我国加入WTO后,有15个行业出现了本地市场效应,贸易成本的下降促进了我国本地市场效应的形成。这和理论分析相吻合。
第五章,贸易成本的FDI区位选择效应。首先,从新经济地理学的角度,理论上分析了贸易成本对FDI区位选择的影响。贸易成本的变化将会影响集聚力和分散力的大小,从而影响跨国厂商的区位选择。在垂直型的FDI区位选择模型中,对于发展中国家而言,集聚力主要来源于与母国要素禀赋之间的差异,而贸易成本的下降将进一步增强集聚力。随后,利用中国的经验数据,也进一步证实了中国贸易成本的下降是外商选择中国的区位因素之一。最后,从贸易成本的角度分析了我国中、西部地区吸收FDI偏少的原因,主要是由于中、西部地区的贸易成本明显高于东部地区,表现为中、西部地区位置偏远,运输成本远远高于东部地区；基础设施不完善,交通信息成本高于东部地区；制度成本高于东部地区,增加了投资者的风险和不确定性。
第六章,贸易成本的生产率效应。首先,从理论上分析了贸易成本下降促进行业生产率增长的微观机理。贸易成本的下降可以通过两个途径促进行业生产率的增长：其一是行业内资源重置效应,贸易成本的下降所带来的出口扩张,促使行业内低效率企业退出(贸易自由化的选择效应)和存活企业中市场份额从低效率企业向高效率企业转移(生产再分配效应),从而促进行业生产率增长；其二是企业技术进步效应,贸易成本可以影响企业的技术选择行为.当贸易成本下降时,更多的企业将选择高技术。企业的技术进步和行业内技术溢出将提高行业生产率。随后,利用中国1980-2007年相关数据进行协整检验,实证分析结果表明贸易成本、全要素生产率之间存在着唯一的协整关系,贸易成本的下降促进了全要素生产率的增长。
第七章,结论与政策建议。首先,总结了本文的几点基本结论；之后提出了相关的政策建议。在金融危机时期,降低贸易成本对对外贸易的发展十分重要,特别是灵活的自由贸易区战略显得更为重要。在贸易成本、规模经济存在的情况下,内需与出口之间不一定是相互替代的,反而可能是相互促进的,庞大的国内市场也可以成为国际贸易优势的来源。因此,在中国贸易政策取向上,除了继续重视外部市场外,还应将重心放在国内市场的开发和培育上,而降低贸易成本,可以强化本地市场效应。
Although trade cost restricts equalization of goods and factor's price and reduces trade volume in the traditional trade theories, it doesn't change determinants of traditional trade pattern-comparative advantage. So, in the traditional trade theories, trade cost is almost ignored. But with the developments and changes of international trade and with the innovation of trade theories, more and more scholars realize the importance of trade cost. Trade cost is one of the core concepts in the New Trade Theory, the New Economic Geography, and the New-New Trade Theory.
Owing to the progress of science and technology, especially the drastic developments of transportation and communication technology, trade cost based on distance is really reduced so much that many people exclaim "the death of distance". But even today in the economic globalization, international trade is perplexed by trade cost, which shouldn't be ignored. So it has important theoretical significance to study trade cost and its effects comprehensively, deeply and systematically.
Since reform and opening up, China has been merged into the integrative system of global economy, and China has transformed from small trade country in the early age of reform and opening up into big trade country in the world. As a developing country with rapid developments, China's opening degree has been the focus of attention at home and abroad. Traditionally, indirect indexes such as foreign trade dependence and capital flow et al are usually used to measure China's opening degree. These indexes are very convenient and simple, but they always conceal the impact of specific factors. If China's trade cost can be measured, it not only provides direct evidences for China's gradually opening up, but also it's of importance to understand the pattern of China's participation in the international division and specialization. Furthermore, Empirical analysis on determinants of trade cost and study on effects of trade cost, such as home market effects of trade cost, effects of trade cost on location choice of FDI and effects of trade cost on productivity will provide abundant policy implication for China's reform and opening up and economic developments.Especially in the period of economic crisis, it may put forward policy suggestions for overcoming the influence of economic crisis to study on trade cost and its effects.
The paper is consisted of seven chapters.
ChapterⅠ:Introduction. The main content is to introduce the significance of the research, related research, the paper's structure, research methods, and innovations of the paper.
ChapterⅡ:Measurement of trade cost. First of all, it introduces several methods of measuring trade cost and analyses their advantages and disadvantages.On the basis of it, the model of measuring trade cost of this paper is derived. And bilateral trade cost between China and its 15 major trade partners is measured. The results show that the tariff equivalent bilateral trade cost between China and its 15 major trade partners has fell significantly from 1980 to 2007;the annual falling rate is 2.51 per cent. Especially after access to WTO, the trend is accelerated to decline. Subsequently, an empirical analysis on the determinants of China's trade cost is made.The empirical results show that bilateral trade cost is related to distance, institute, infrastructures and their common free trade areas. At last, it describes the measures to reduce trade cost in China.
ChapterⅢ:Effects of trade cost on International Trade. First, on the basis of the model, it analyses the effects of trade cost on trade volume. The results show that the decreasing of trade cost promotes the growth of China's foreign trade. Secondly, it studies effects of trade cost on vertical specialization trade by a theoretical model.The decreasing of trade-cost-impels non-linear growth of vertical specialization-trade. As the number of production stages increases, the magnification effect of trade cots on vertical specialization trade increases.At last it makes an empirical analysis using China's data. The empirical analysis is consistent with theoretical analysis; and there exists Granger causality relationship between vertical specialization trade and trade cost in China.
ChapterⅣ:Home Market Effects of trade cost. First, by the means of changing some basic assumptions in the traditional model of Home Market Effects, Home Market Effects still emerge.And higher trade cost attenuates Home Market Effects. Secondly, the paper measures Home Market Effects between China and its major trade partners' bilateral trade using China's data from 1992 to 2008.The results show that in the world of increasing scale and trade cost, Home Market Effects exist in five products among ten products; and in thirty-five manufactures, there are ten industrial products which have Home Market Effects. Therefore, Home Market Effect is becoming one of the most important sources of comparative advantages which cause to export from China to other countries. At last, the paper compares Home Market Effects between the period of 1992 to 2001 and the period of 2002 to 2008.The comparison shows that there exist Home Market Effects in six industrial products during the period of 1992 to 2001,but after access to WTO in 2001,there exist Home Market Effects in 15 industrial products during the 2002 to 2008, the lower trade cost accentuates Home Market Effects in China, which is in consistent with theoretical analysis.
ChapterⅤ:Effects of trade cost on location choice of EDI.First, from the perspective of the New Economic Geography, the text analyses theoretically the effects of trade cost on location choice of FDI. The changes of trade cost will influence the force of convergence and divergence, which will affect the location choice of FDI.In the model of vertical multinational firms, from the point view of developing countries, the force of convergence comes form the factor endowment differences between home country and host country; and the declining of trade cost will reinforce the force of convergence. Secondly, the empirical analysis based on China's data shows that the declining of trade cost is one of location factors of FDI choosing China. At last, the chapter analyses the reason why quantity of FDI in central and western China is small in the perspective of trade cost. It is mainly because trade cost of central and western China is higher than that of eastern China. Owing to remote geographic location, transportation cost is higher than that of eastern China; transportation and information cost is higher than that of eastern China due to imperfect infrastructures;and higher institutional costs increase investors'risk and uncertainty.
Chapter VI:Effects of trade cost on Productivity. First, the chapter studies theoretically the micro-mechanism of the effects of trade cost on industrial productivity. Trade cost promotes the growth of industrial productivity by two ways.One way is intra-industrial reallocation effects.The declining of trade cost leads to export expansion, low-productive firms exit (market selection effect) and the resource is reallocated toward higher-productive firms (market share effect), therefore the industrial productivity increases. Another way is technical progress effects of firms. Trade cost may influence the technique choices of firms;more firms will choose High-Tec technology when trade cost is declining. Technical progress in firms and spillover in industry promote the growth of industrial productivity. Secondly, the chapter makes a co-integration analysis using Chinese related data from 1980 to 2007.The empirical results show that the co-integration relationship exists between trade and total factor productivity. The declining of trade cost really promotes the growth of total factor productivity.
Chapter VII:Conclusions. The paper makes some basic research conclusions and provides the corresponding policy implications and suggestions. In the period of economic crisis, it's important to reduce trade cost to promote Chinese foreign trade development, especially establishing flexible Free Trade Areas.Under the condition of increasing and trade cost, domestic demand and export may not replace each other, instead they may promote each other. Enormous home markets can be one of sources of international trade advantages.Therefore, Chinese trade policy should continue to emphasize external market, but also pay attention to developing and cultivating home markets.Reducing trade cost can accentuate Home Market Effects.
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