基于总量控制的中国农业氮肥需求及温室气体减排潜力研究
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摘要
氮肥应用解决了我国人口吃饭问题,但过量施氮带来了诸多环境问题,因此调控氮肥用量是实现农业、资源和环境可持续发展的重要研究议题。本研究利用农户调查数据和国家统计数据,综合分析了中国农业氮肥的应用现状；通过氮肥肥效反应试验,应用区域氮肥总量控制方法,确定了小麦、玉米、水稻各区域的氮肥总量控制量,并分析其节氮、增产、温室气体减排潜力；通过文献调研方法分析了我国经济作物氮肥总量控制量。在以上研究的基础上,结合氮肥总量控制量和作物种植面积,确定了我国农作物氮肥需求量。主要研究结果如下：
1.通过对2007-2009年32219个农户调研数据整理分析,结果表明我国小麦、水稻、玉米氮肥用量分别为210kg hm-2、210kg hm-2、220kg hm-2;蔬菜和果树氮肥用量分别为388kg hm-2和555kg hm-2。2007-2009年我国氮肥消费量在各作物间分配比例为：小麦(14%)、水稻(16%)、玉米(19%)、蔬菜(20%)、果树(15%)、油料(5%)、薯类(4%)、茶园(2%)、豆类(1%)、其他作物(4%)。
2.应用区域氮肥总量控制方法,对全国7个小麦生态亚区的1165个小麦氮肥肥效反应试验数据进行分析研究,结果表明我国小麦氮肥总量控制量为174kg hm-2,对应的小麦产量为6.24Mg hm-2,温室气体排放强度为495kg CO2eq Mg-1grain.7个农业生态亚区的氮肥总量控制量不同,东北春麦区最低,为99kg hm-2,华北雨养冬麦区最高,为193kg hm-2。如果氮肥总量控制量能被农民采用,我国小麦生产可以节约氮肥85万吨,增加小麦产量1160万吨,降低温室气体排放量(CO2eq)1040万吨。
3.应用区域氮肥总量控制方法,对全国12个玉米生态亚区的1726个玉米氮肥肥效反应试验数据进行分析研究,结果表明我国玉米氮肥总量控制量为174kg hm-2,对应的玉米产量为8.56Mg hm-2,温室气体排放强度为334kg CO2eq Mg-1grain。12个农业生态亚区的氮肥总量控制量不同,东北冷凉春玉米区和东北半湿润春玉米区最低,为150kg hm-2,西北绿洲灌溉春玉米区最高,为219kg hm-2。如果氮肥总量控制量能被农民采用,我国玉米生产可以节约氮肥143万吨,增加玉米产量3190万吨,降低温室气体排放量(CO2eq)1860万吨。
4.应用区域氮肥总量控制方法,对全国8个水稻生态亚区的1177个水稻氮肥肥效反应试验数据进行分析研究,结果表明我国水稻氮肥总量控制量为167kg hm-2,对应的水稻产量为7.67Mg hm-2,温室气体排放强度为1236kg CO2eq Mg-1grain。8个农业生态亚区的氮肥总量控制量不同,黑龙江寒地单季稻区最低,为114kg hm-2,长江下游单季稻区最高,为224kg hm-2。如果氮肥总量控制量能被农民采用,我国水稻生产可以节约氮肥125万吨,增加水稻产量1536万吨,降低温室气体排放量(CO2eq)1572万吨。
5.基于我国作物生产情况,应用氮肥总量控制的方法,预测了我国农作物氮肥需求。在保证我国小麦、玉米、水稻分别增产8.5%、13.2%、7.4%的基础上,我国农业氮肥需求量为3133万吨。
The use of nitrogen fertilizer is critical to feeding China's hungry. However, the excessive use of chemical N fertilizers in agriculture, resulting in a large number of environmental problems. Therefore, limiting the N fertilizer rate is urgent to ensure national food security and protect resources and environment. This thesis focuses on the current situation of China's agricultural nitrogen fertilizer application based on the analysis of farmer survey data and statistical data. A regional N management approach was developed based on the cost of the agricultural response to N application rates from large number on-farm experiments to optimize N management across each agroecological subregions in the intensive Chinese smallholder wheat, maize and rice belt. We also compared N rate, grain yield and GHG emissions between the regional N management approach and farmers' N management, and evaluated the potential for increasing grain yields and mitigating GHG emission intensity using this regional N management approach when compared to farmers' practices across each region. The regional optimal N rate of cash crops, vegetables and fruits was also evaluated by data mining method. Then the demand of N fertilizer was forecasted based on regional optimal N rate and crop cultivated area. Main results as below:
1. We present a new database of N input from a survey of32219farmers during2007to2009. Across all farmers, the N application rate of wheat, rice and maize was210,210and220kg ha-1, respectively. The N application rate of vegetables and fruits was388and555kg ha-1, respectively. The proportion of nitrogen fertilizer consumed by wheat, rice, maize, vegetables, fruits, oil crops, potatos, tea garden, beans and other crops was14%,16%,19%,20%,15%,5%,4%,2%,1%and4%, respectively.
2. In this study, a regional N management approach was developed based on the cost of the agricultural response to N application rates from1,165on-farm experiments to optimize N management across7agroecological subregions in the intensive Chinese smallholder wheat belt. The calculated regional N rate was174kg N ha-1. The corresponding grain yield averaged6.24Mg ha-1. Calculated GHG emission intensity, weighted by wheat area in each subregion, averaged495kg CO2eq Mg-1grain. This regional N management approach, if widely adopted in China, could reduce fertilizer N consumption85MT, increase Chinese wheat production1160MT, and reduce total GHG emissions1040MT.
3. In this study, a regional N management approach was developed based on the cost of the agricultural response to N application rates from1,726on-farm experiments to optimize N management across12agroecological subregions in the intensive Chinese smallholder maize belt. The calculated regional N rate was174kg N ha-1and ranged from150kg N ha-1(NE1&NE2) to219kg N ha-1(NW3). The corresponding grain yield averaged8.56Mg ha-1. Calculated GHG emission intensity, weighted by maize area in each subregion, averaged334kg CO2eq Mg-1grain. This regional N management approach, if widely adopted in China, could reduce fertilizer N consumption143MT, increase Chinese maize production3190MT, and reduce total GHG emissions1860MT.
4. In this study, a regional N management approach was developed based on the cost of the agricultural response to N application rates from1,177on-farm experiments to optimize N management across8agroecological subregions in the intensive Chinese smallholder rice belt. The calculated regional N rate was167kg N ha-1and ranged from114kg N ha-1(NE) to224kg N ha-1(LYR). The corresponding grain yield averaged7.67Mg ha-1. Calculated GHG emission intensity, weighted by rice area in each subregion, averaged1236kg CO2eq Mg-1grain. This regional N management approach, if widely adopted in China, could reduce fertilizer N consumption125MT, increase Chinese maize production1536MT, and reduce total GHG emissions1290MT.
5. The demand for agricultural N fertilizer was forecasted based on regional optimal N rate and crop cultivated area in this study. The agricultural nitrogen fertilizer demand is expected to31.33million tonnes in China, and increase Chinese wheat, maize, rice production by8.5%,13.2%,7.4%, respectively.
1.通过对2007-2009年32219个农户调研数据整理分析,结果表明我国小麦、水稻、玉米氮肥用量分别为210kg hm-2、210kg hm-2、220kg hm-2;蔬菜和果树氮肥用量分别为388kg hm-2和555kg hm-2。2007-2009年我国氮肥消费量在各作物间分配比例为：小麦(14%)、水稻(16%)、玉米(19%)、蔬菜(20%)、果树(15%)、油料(5%)、薯类(4%)、茶园(2%)、豆类(1%)、其他作物(4%)。
2.应用区域氮肥总量控制方法,对全国7个小麦生态亚区的1165个小麦氮肥肥效反应试验数据进行分析研究,结果表明我国小麦氮肥总量控制量为174kg hm-2,对应的小麦产量为6.24Mg hm-2,温室气体排放强度为495kg CO2eq Mg-1grain.7个农业生态亚区的氮肥总量控制量不同,东北春麦区最低,为99kg hm-2,华北雨养冬麦区最高,为193kg hm-2。如果氮肥总量控制量能被农民采用,我国小麦生产可以节约氮肥85万吨,增加小麦产量1160万吨,降低温室气体排放量(CO2eq)1040万吨。
3.应用区域氮肥总量控制方法,对全国12个玉米生态亚区的1726个玉米氮肥肥效反应试验数据进行分析研究,结果表明我国玉米氮肥总量控制量为174kg hm-2,对应的玉米产量为8.56Mg hm-2,温室气体排放强度为334kg CO2eq Mg-1grain。12个农业生态亚区的氮肥总量控制量不同,东北冷凉春玉米区和东北半湿润春玉米区最低,为150kg hm-2,西北绿洲灌溉春玉米区最高,为219kg hm-2。如果氮肥总量控制量能被农民采用,我国玉米生产可以节约氮肥143万吨,增加玉米产量3190万吨,降低温室气体排放量(CO2eq)1860万吨。
4.应用区域氮肥总量控制方法,对全国8个水稻生态亚区的1177个水稻氮肥肥效反应试验数据进行分析研究,结果表明我国水稻氮肥总量控制量为167kg hm-2,对应的水稻产量为7.67Mg hm-2,温室气体排放强度为1236kg CO2eq Mg-1grain。8个农业生态亚区的氮肥总量控制量不同,黑龙江寒地单季稻区最低,为114kg hm-2,长江下游单季稻区最高,为224kg hm-2。如果氮肥总量控制量能被农民采用,我国水稻生产可以节约氮肥125万吨,增加水稻产量1536万吨,降低温室气体排放量(CO2eq)1572万吨。
5.基于我国作物生产情况,应用氮肥总量控制的方法,预测了我国农作物氮肥需求。在保证我国小麦、玉米、水稻分别增产8.5%、13.2%、7.4%的基础上,我国农业氮肥需求量为3133万吨。
The use of nitrogen fertilizer is critical to feeding China's hungry. However, the excessive use of chemical N fertilizers in agriculture, resulting in a large number of environmental problems. Therefore, limiting the N fertilizer rate is urgent to ensure national food security and protect resources and environment. This thesis focuses on the current situation of China's agricultural nitrogen fertilizer application based on the analysis of farmer survey data and statistical data. A regional N management approach was developed based on the cost of the agricultural response to N application rates from large number on-farm experiments to optimize N management across each agroecological subregions in the intensive Chinese smallholder wheat, maize and rice belt. We also compared N rate, grain yield and GHG emissions between the regional N management approach and farmers' N management, and evaluated the potential for increasing grain yields and mitigating GHG emission intensity using this regional N management approach when compared to farmers' practices across each region. The regional optimal N rate of cash crops, vegetables and fruits was also evaluated by data mining method. Then the demand of N fertilizer was forecasted based on regional optimal N rate and crop cultivated area. Main results as below:
1. We present a new database of N input from a survey of32219farmers during2007to2009. Across all farmers, the N application rate of wheat, rice and maize was210,210and220kg ha-1, respectively. The N application rate of vegetables and fruits was388and555kg ha-1, respectively. The proportion of nitrogen fertilizer consumed by wheat, rice, maize, vegetables, fruits, oil crops, potatos, tea garden, beans and other crops was14%,16%,19%,20%,15%,5%,4%,2%,1%and4%, respectively.
2. In this study, a regional N management approach was developed based on the cost of the agricultural response to N application rates from1,165on-farm experiments to optimize N management across7agroecological subregions in the intensive Chinese smallholder wheat belt. The calculated regional N rate was174kg N ha-1. The corresponding grain yield averaged6.24Mg ha-1. Calculated GHG emission intensity, weighted by wheat area in each subregion, averaged495kg CO2eq Mg-1grain. This regional N management approach, if widely adopted in China, could reduce fertilizer N consumption85MT, increase Chinese wheat production1160MT, and reduce total GHG emissions1040MT.
3. In this study, a regional N management approach was developed based on the cost of the agricultural response to N application rates from1,726on-farm experiments to optimize N management across12agroecological subregions in the intensive Chinese smallholder maize belt. The calculated regional N rate was174kg N ha-1and ranged from150kg N ha-1(NE1&NE2) to219kg N ha-1(NW3). The corresponding grain yield averaged8.56Mg ha-1. Calculated GHG emission intensity, weighted by maize area in each subregion, averaged334kg CO2eq Mg-1grain. This regional N management approach, if widely adopted in China, could reduce fertilizer N consumption143MT, increase Chinese maize production3190MT, and reduce total GHG emissions1860MT.
4. In this study, a regional N management approach was developed based on the cost of the agricultural response to N application rates from1,177on-farm experiments to optimize N management across8agroecological subregions in the intensive Chinese smallholder rice belt. The calculated regional N rate was167kg N ha-1and ranged from114kg N ha-1(NE) to224kg N ha-1(LYR). The corresponding grain yield averaged7.67Mg ha-1. Calculated GHG emission intensity, weighted by rice area in each subregion, averaged1236kg CO2eq Mg-1grain. This regional N management approach, if widely adopted in China, could reduce fertilizer N consumption125MT, increase Chinese maize production1536MT, and reduce total GHG emissions1290MT.
5. The demand for agricultural N fertilizer was forecasted based on regional optimal N rate and crop cultivated area in this study. The agricultural nitrogen fertilizer demand is expected to31.33million tonnes in China, and increase Chinese wheat, maize, rice production by8.5%,13.2%,7.4%, respectively.
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