核心产品协作开发的计划决策与风险控制
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摘要
基于资源集成的协作开发已经成了制造企业核心产品开发的重要模式。在核心产品协作开发过程中,核心产品开发的计划决策与风险控制严重地影响核心产品开发的效果。如对其管理不当,将给企业带来致命的后果。本文对核心产品协作开发的计划决策与风险控制方法进行了研究,并取得了如下成果:
     1.明确了企业战略、产业因素、产品特性因素以及资源因素对核心产品开发项目选择的影响,构建了核心产品开发项目选择的决策程序。进而从产品开发效益、开发成功的可能性二个维度建立了核心产品开发项目选择的决策模型。
     2.给出了核心产品开发任务分解的原则与方法,建立了MICK资源分配的综合优化模型,根据各任务MICK资源总量及其核心产品开发时间的要求,采用QFD方法和目标优化法构建了核心产品各任务开发方式选择的决策模型。
     3.针对核心产品协作开发的动机,确定了核心产品协作开发伙伴评价的依据和评价方法。结合核心产品的协作开发网络,建立了在有限的协作资金约束下,使核心产品开发收益实现最大化的协作伙伴选择的量化模型。
     4.提出了柔性网络结构对核心产品协作开发组织的适应性。考虑到柔性网络结构的复杂性,运用熵理论建立了核心产品协作开发组织结构有序性的评价模型,为核心产品协作开发组织结构的设计、选择与优化提供了理论依据。
     5.指出了核心产品协作开发的主要关系风险,构建了关系风险的认知模型,应用D-S理论对关系风险进行了评价,并建立了最大程度地降低关系风险水平的风险决策模型。
     本文给出的核心产品协作开发的计划决策方法,为核心产品协作开发提供了理论基础和具体可行的操作工具,有助于核心产品协作开发的顺利开展,提高核心产品协作开发的效率与效果。与此同时,对协作中关系风险的评价与控制进行的尝试,有利于企业更有效地度量关系风险,从容地应对协作过程中的关系风险。
Cooperative development based on resource integration has become importantmode of core product development for manufacturing enterprises. Planning decisionandriskcontrol ofcoreproductdevelopmentaffect the result of it severely duringthecore product cooperative development. Which will bring enterprises lethal effect ifmismanagement. The method of planning decision and risk control for core productcooperativedevelopmentisstudiedinthispaper.Theresults are asfollows.
     1. Define the effects in selection of core product development from enterprisestrategy, industry factor, product character and resource. The project selectiondecision making process of core product development was built. Then the decisionmaking model of core product development selection was built from the benefit ofproduct developmentandpossibilityofsuccess.
     2. Principles and methods of core product developmenttask decomposition wereraised. Comprehensive optimizationmodel ofMICKresourcesallocationwas built.Inaccording to total MICK resources of every task and time limit of core productdevelopment, the decision making model of development method selection for coreproductionwasbuiltbyusingQFDmethodandmultipurpose optimalmethod.
     3. Basisand primary selection method of core product cooperative developmentpartners were confirmed for motivation of core product cooperative development.Combining with core product cooperative development network, quantitative modelof cooperative partner selection was built to maximize benefit of core productdevelopmentunderlimitedcooperativefunds.
     4. Suitability of flexibility network structure for core product cooperativedevelopment was raised. Considering the complexity of flexibility network structure,evaluation model oforganizational structure orderliness for core product developmentwas built based on entropy theory. A theory base was provided for organizationalstructuredesign,selectionand optimizationofcoreproductcooperativedevelopment.
     5. The main relation risks of core product cooperative development wereindicated andcognitivemodel of relation risk was built. Intellectual property risk wasevaluated through D-S theory. Risk decisionmodel was builtfor minimizing the levelofrelationrisk.
     A planning decision making method of core product cooperative development was giveninthis paper. Atheorybaseand feasibletoolwas providedfor core productcooperative development. It contribute to carry out core product cooperativedevelopment successfully and to increase the efficiency and effect of it. Mean while,it is good for evaluating relation risk and facing relation risk in cooperation througheffortonevaluatingandcontrollingrelationriskduringcooperation.
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