基于节水减排的ELC曲线与生态工业分类研究
摘要
我国水资源短缺,人均水资源量只有世界人均水平的29%,且时空分布不均匀,几十年来,由于不合理的开发利用,我国正面临着“水多、水少、水脏、水浑”等问题的严重困扰,对水资源持续利用构成了严峻的挑战。为此,我国“十一五”规划按可持续发展理念设计,提出构建资源节约型和环境友好型社会,力争在2010年使单位工业增加值用水量降低30%,使主要的水环境污染物(COD)排放总量降低10%,使我国国民经济走上可持续发展的道路。要想实现这一目标,必须转变经济增长方式,优化产业结构,这是建设环境友好型产业的关键措施和必然选择。产业结构的调整包括第一、二、三产业之间的调整,也包括第二产业内部结构的调整,由于工业部门是消耗资源最多、对环境污染最为严重的部门,因而也是资源节约潜力最大的部门,所以本文对工业进行了重点分析。本论文在国家自然科学基金项目(40271052)的资助下,系统收集我国各省区和各工业行业的水资源利用和化学需氧量(COD)排放的数据,运用数值建模技术,建立了我国各省区水资源消耗和COD排放的“环境学习曲线”(ELC),并计算了我国各省区节水减排潜力,并对节水减排潜力进行了时空的系统分析,此外,根据我国生态省(生态市)建设标准,测定了我国各省区水资源消耗和COD排放的绿色距离和生态化实现程度,本文还对工业从资源环境的角度进行了重新分类,为调整工业行业内部结构提供了依据。主要内容和结论如下:
1、具体介绍了“学习曲线”(LC)的含义及形式,并引申出“环境学习曲线”(ELC)的含义,根据我国各省区1998年-2005年水资源消耗的案板数据,建立了我国各省区水资源消耗的ELC曲线,分析了人均水资源消耗、万元产值水耗和人均GDP的关系,揭示中国地区之间经济发展和水资源消耗的对应关系,根据所建立的ELC模型,计算了我国各省区不同时段的节水潜力,并对其进行了时间上和空间上的对比分析。
2、基于1998-2005年的案板数据,分析万元产值COD排放量与人均GDP的关系,建立31个省区COD排放的环境学习曲线,并揭示了现阶段我国人均COD排放量和万元产值COD排放量的区域差异,以COD排放的环境学习曲线为依据,分析不同时段COD排放的环境负荷及减排潜力,为各个省区实现“十一五”减排目标提供了科学依据。
3、介绍了绿色距离和生态化实现程度的概念及模型,分别依据2005年我国各省区万元产值水资源消耗和COD排放的数据,测定了现在我国水资源消耗、COD排放的绿色距离和生态化实现程度,并对其空间分布规律进行了分析。
4、从水资源消耗和COD排放双调控出发,利用2005年各工业部门有关统计数据,对我国40个工业行业进行新的分类,我国40个工业行业可以分为3种水资源消耗-水环境类型:低耗水-低污染、高耗水-低污染、高耗水-高污染,为调整工业产业结构、降低水资源消耗和控制水污染提供依据。
本研究的创新之处主要有:①建立了我国各省区水资源消耗和COD捧放的ELC曲线,并根据所建立的模型计算了我国各省区节水减排潜力,分析了它们的时空变化规律:②测定了我国各省区水资源消耗和COD捧放的绿色距离和生态化实现程度;③从资源-环境双调控的角度,对我国40个工业重新进行了分类。
Water resource of China is short,and the level of average water per person is only 29%of the world.Its time and space distribution is non-uniform.As a result of the unreasonable use for several years,our country is facing "much water,little water,dirty water,muddy water".Therefore,our country proposes that we should build resource-efficient and environment friendly society according to the sustainable development idea.Our gogal is that water consumption of the unit industry increasing value reduces 30%,and the main water environment pollution(COD) reduces 10%in 2010.In order to achieve the goal,we must change the economic growth way and optimize the industrial construction,which is the essential measure and inevitable selection to build the environment friendly industry.Industrial structure adjustment not only includes the first,the second, and the third industry,but also includes the second industry internal structure.This paper selects the industry to analysis,because the industry is the sector that consumes the most resources,causes the most serious environmental pollution,and haves the biggest saving resource potential.The paper receives support of National Natural Science Foundation(40271052) and builids "environmental learning curve"(ELC) of our country's provincial water consumpution and COD emission by technology of numerical model,according to collecting the data of water consumption and COD emission of every provinces and industry. In the one hand,the paper calculates the potential of saving water and reducing emission and analyzes it's time and space distribution.In the other hand,the paper determines the green gap and degree of ecological realization of our country's water consumption and COD emission based on the China's ecological province(ecological city) construction standards.At last,the paper reclassifies the industrial sectors,which provides foundation for adjusting industrial sectors.The main contents and conclusions are as followings:
The first one,the paper particularly introduces the "learning curve"(LC) and "environmental learning curve", including their's meanings and forms.The ELC curves of every province's water consumption are established, using the chopping board data in 1998-2005 of theirs.Then the paper analyzes the relation between GDP per person and the water consumption of every person and 10~4 value of output,which reveals the relation of economic development and water consumption.At last,the paper calculates the saving water potentials in different periods and analyses their time and space distribution according to the model of ELC.
The second one,based on the chopping board data in 1998-2005,the paper analyses the COD emission per 10~4 RMB and per person and builds the ELC of every province.Then the paper reveals their regional difference and analyzes COD environmental load and reducing potentials of different periods,which provides scientific basis for realizing the reducing emission goal of the "11 th five-year plan".
The third one,the paper introduces the meanings and models of the green gap and degree of ecological realization The peper determines the green gap and degree of ecological realization of our country's water consumption and COD emission based on the data of every province in 2005.Last,the paper analyses the special distribution.
The fourth one,based on the data of different industrial professions in 2005 year,the paper classifies the forty industrial departments,embarking on the water consumption and COD discharge double regulation.The results show that they can be divided into three types based on the water consumption and COD mission per 10~4 RMB Yuan.One is low water consumption and low pollution,the other is high water consumption and low pollution, and the third is high water consumption and high pollution.The new industrial classification provides basis for adjusting industrial sectors and reducing water pollution.
The innovations of this paper are as followings.The fast oriels that the paper establishes the ELC of water consumption and COD emission,analyses the time and space change of saving water and reducing pollution potentials,which are calculated by the models.The second one is that the paper determines the green gap and degree of ecological realization of our country's water consumption and COD emission.The last one is that classifies the forty industrial departments,embarking on the resource and environment double regulation.
1、具体介绍了“学习曲线”(LC)的含义及形式,并引申出“环境学习曲线”(ELC)的含义,根据我国各省区1998年-2005年水资源消耗的案板数据,建立了我国各省区水资源消耗的ELC曲线,分析了人均水资源消耗、万元产值水耗和人均GDP的关系,揭示中国地区之间经济发展和水资源消耗的对应关系,根据所建立的ELC模型,计算了我国各省区不同时段的节水潜力,并对其进行了时间上和空间上的对比分析。
2、基于1998-2005年的案板数据,分析万元产值COD排放量与人均GDP的关系,建立31个省区COD排放的环境学习曲线,并揭示了现阶段我国人均COD排放量和万元产值COD排放量的区域差异,以COD排放的环境学习曲线为依据,分析不同时段COD排放的环境负荷及减排潜力,为各个省区实现“十一五”减排目标提供了科学依据。
3、介绍了绿色距离和生态化实现程度的概念及模型,分别依据2005年我国各省区万元产值水资源消耗和COD排放的数据,测定了现在我国水资源消耗、COD排放的绿色距离和生态化实现程度,并对其空间分布规律进行了分析。
4、从水资源消耗和COD排放双调控出发,利用2005年各工业部门有关统计数据,对我国40个工业行业进行新的分类,我国40个工业行业可以分为3种水资源消耗-水环境类型:低耗水-低污染、高耗水-低污染、高耗水-高污染,为调整工业产业结构、降低水资源消耗和控制水污染提供依据。
本研究的创新之处主要有:①建立了我国各省区水资源消耗和COD捧放的ELC曲线,并根据所建立的模型计算了我国各省区节水减排潜力,分析了它们的时空变化规律:②测定了我国各省区水资源消耗和COD捧放的绿色距离和生态化实现程度;③从资源-环境双调控的角度,对我国40个工业重新进行了分类。
Water resource of China is short,and the level of average water per person is only 29%of the world.Its time and space distribution is non-uniform.As a result of the unreasonable use for several years,our country is facing "much water,little water,dirty water,muddy water".Therefore,our country proposes that we should build resource-efficient and environment friendly society according to the sustainable development idea.Our gogal is that water consumption of the unit industry increasing value reduces 30%,and the main water environment pollution(COD) reduces 10%in 2010.In order to achieve the goal,we must change the economic growth way and optimize the industrial construction,which is the essential measure and inevitable selection to build the environment friendly industry.Industrial structure adjustment not only includes the first,the second, and the third industry,but also includes the second industry internal structure.This paper selects the industry to analysis,because the industry is the sector that consumes the most resources,causes the most serious environmental pollution,and haves the biggest saving resource potential.The paper receives support of National Natural Science Foundation(40271052) and builids "environmental learning curve"(ELC) of our country's provincial water consumpution and COD emission by technology of numerical model,according to collecting the data of water consumption and COD emission of every provinces and industry. In the one hand,the paper calculates the potential of saving water and reducing emission and analyzes it's time and space distribution.In the other hand,the paper determines the green gap and degree of ecological realization of our country's water consumption and COD emission based on the China's ecological province(ecological city) construction standards.At last,the paper reclassifies the industrial sectors,which provides foundation for adjusting industrial sectors.The main contents and conclusions are as followings:
The first one,the paper particularly introduces the "learning curve"(LC) and "environmental learning curve", including their's meanings and forms.The ELC curves of every province's water consumption are established, using the chopping board data in 1998-2005 of theirs.Then the paper analyzes the relation between GDP per person and the water consumption of every person and 10~4 value of output,which reveals the relation of economic development and water consumption.At last,the paper calculates the saving water potentials in different periods and analyses their time and space distribution according to the model of ELC.
The second one,based on the chopping board data in 1998-2005,the paper analyses the COD emission per 10~4 RMB and per person and builds the ELC of every province.Then the paper reveals their regional difference and analyzes COD environmental load and reducing potentials of different periods,which provides scientific basis for realizing the reducing emission goal of the "11 th five-year plan".
The third one,the paper introduces the meanings and models of the green gap and degree of ecological realization The peper determines the green gap and degree of ecological realization of our country's water consumption and COD emission based on the data of every province in 2005.Last,the paper analyses the special distribution.
The fourth one,based on the data of different industrial professions in 2005 year,the paper classifies the forty industrial departments,embarking on the water consumption and COD discharge double regulation.The results show that they can be divided into three types based on the water consumption and COD mission per 10~4 RMB Yuan.One is low water consumption and low pollution,the other is high water consumption and low pollution, and the third is high water consumption and high pollution.The new industrial classification provides basis for adjusting industrial sectors and reducing water pollution.
The innovations of this paper are as followings.The fast oriels that the paper establishes the ELC of water consumption and COD emission,analyses the time and space change of saving water and reducing pollution potentials,which are calculated by the models.The second one is that the paper determines the green gap and degree of ecological realization of our country's water consumption and COD emission.The last one is that classifies the forty industrial departments,embarking on the resource and environment double regulation.
引文
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