基于GIS与SD的区域可持续发展研究
摘要
随着经济的持续快速增长,人类在取得高度物质文明的同时,也出现了人口膨胀、资源短缺、生态破坏、污染严重等一系列的危机。因此,改变传统的发展模式,走可持续发展之路,就成为人类发展的必然选择。微观区域的可持续发展是宏观层面上实现整体可持续发展的基础。从地理学角度,运用系统论观点进行区域系统可持续发展的研究,是区域可持续发展研究的一种探索和尝试。
本论文在理论推演的基础上,构建了县域可持续发展评价指标体系及评价模型,分析了区域可持续发展系统的结构、功能、特征及其因果反馈关系,并以庆阳为例进行了实证研究。联合使用着重于空间现象分析处理的GIS技术与着重于时间序列动态模拟的SD方法,对庆阳各县(区)区域可持续发展的时空演变特征进行了研究,分析了庆阳各县(区)1990年以来区域可持续发展的时空演变规律,并对2007年后区域可持续发展的时空演变趋势进行了预测研究。最后,设计了适合庆阳的区域可持续发展路径。本论文的研究具体包括以下几方面:
1.关于评价指标体系和评价模型的分析。设计了县域可持续发展的评价指标体系,并将所有评价指标划分为元指标与二次指标两类:确定了区域可持续发展的综合评价模型,在全面考虑区域发展的持续性和协调性的基础上,对区域可持续发展加以综合评价。
2.关于区域可持续发展系统的分析。认为区域可持续发展系统内存在着一系列复杂的因果反馈作用关系,体现在主要的因果反馈作用回路上,这些反馈回路相互联系、相互制约,影响着区域可持续发展系统的运行方向。
3.关于庆阳区域可持续发展状况的实证评价。对庆阳各县(区)的区域可持续发展状况进行了综合评价与分析,结果表明:1990—2007年,庆阳各县(区)的区域可持续发展综合水平总体上是在逐渐增强,但这种增强的主要拉动力是经济的快速增长与社会的迅速进步,是以牺牲资源和环境为代价的。
4.关于庆阳区域可持续发展的趋势预测。运用系统动力学模型预测了庆阳各县(区)未来的区域可持续发展变化趋势,研究表明传统经济发展模式是不可持续的发展模式。在传统经济发展模式下,2007—2020年庆阳各县(区)的区域可持续发展综合水平将会逐渐转为下降的趋势,经济增长速度越快,这种现象越明显。
5.关于庆阳区域可持续发展的空间结构演变分析。使用重心位移分析方法,分析了1990年以来庆阳区域可持续发展的空间结构演变规律及2007年后庆阳区域可持续发展的空间结构演变趋势。研究表明,庆阳区域可持续发展的空间分布不均衡,各县区差异较大,且空间结构不稳定,随时间变化波动较大,经济增速越快,波动就越大,区域可持续发展系统会越不稳定。
6.关于庆阳区域可持续发展的实现路径分析。从生态经济学的角度设计了适合于庆阳的区域可持续发展路径,将生态经济的理念贯穿于庆阳的区域发展中,认为发展生态工业、发展生态农业、发展生态服务业、推广生态消费是最适合庆阳的区域可持续发展路径。
综上所述,一方面本论文丰富与发展了区域可持续发展理论,为区域可持续发展方面的研究提供了新思路、新方法,具有重要的理论意义。另一方面,又能够为庆阳相关政府部门制定区域可持续发展战略提供科学依据,有助于实现微观区域的可持续发展,从而最终实现宏观层面上的整体可持续发展,具有重大的现实意义。
Along with the rapid growth of economic development, the human beings have been addressed abundant substance civilization, and on the other hand, series crisis about the population expansion, resource shortage, ecological destruction and environmental pollution have emerged. Therefore, the human beings must change traditional development mode into sustainable development mode. The sustainable development of microcosmic region is the basis of macroscopical sustainable development. From the viewpoint of geography science, the study on the regional systemic sustainable development based on the systemic analysis theory is an innovative and valuable behavior to the field of regional sustainable development research.
Based on theoretical deduction, this thesis established an indicators' system and a model as well to assess the regional sustainable development on the county level, and analyzed the structure, function, characters and feedback relation of regional sustainable developmental system by taking Qingyang as a case. Based on the approach of GIS and SD, this thesis respectively analyzed the characters of the temporal and spatial evolvement on the sub-regional sustainable development in Qingyang, and doped out the temporal and spatial evolvement trend as well. In the end, the road to address the sustainable development of Qingyang is designed and proposed. The research includes several aspects as following:
1. Analysis on the assessment indicators' system and assessment model. This thesis proposed an indicators' system, which is categorized as meta-data index and secondary index, to assess the regional sustainable development on county level. And then, this thesis established a general assessment model considered the sustainability and co-ordinability to synthetically evaluate the regional development.
2. Analysis on the regional sustainable developmental system. The outcome shows that the system contains a series of complicated causality and feedback which is represented as catena closed loops. The loops affect each other result of redirecting the regional sustainable development system.
3. Assessment of the regional sustainable development of Qingyang. The thesis assessed and analyzed the quo state of sub-regional (county level) sustainable development in Qingyang. The outcome shows that the integrated sustainability on the county level is increased gradually, where the driving force for increasing is due to the rapid growing of the society and economy along with the cost of abundant resources consumption and ecosystem degradation.
4. Prediction of regional sustainable development of Qingyang. This thesis predicted the evolvement trend of sub-regional sustainable development in Qingyang based on the methodology of SD. The outcome shows that the traditional economic development mode is not sustainable. Under the traditional economic development, the integrated sustainability of sub-region will decline continually from 2007 to 2020. The decline could be more obvious if the economic growth is more rapid.
5. Analysis on the evolvement of spatial structure of regional sustainable development of Qingyang. This thesis analyzed the historical evolvement and trend of spatial structure disciplinarian of regional sustainable development based on the method of Gravity Center Shift. The outcome shows that the spatial distribution is unbalance. The spatial structure is unsteady, and the undulation is obvious. The more rapid growth of economic development, the undulation is more obvious, and the regional sustainable development system is more unsteady.
6. Analysis on the developmental path to meet the regional sustainable development. From the perspective of ecological economics, this thesis proposed a suitable path used for Qingyang to meet the sustainable development, which embodies the conception of ecological economics. It is considered that the suitable path includes ecological industry, ecological agriculture, ecological service industry and ecological consumption.
In conclusion, on the one hand, this thesis is of important theoretical significance, which is expected to enrich and develop the theory on regional sustainable development, and to provide new idea and method as well for the research on regional sustainable development. On the other hand, this thesis has prominent practical significance, which could provide scientific foundation for the local government to make the developmental polices which is propitious to achieve the microcosmic regional sustainable development, and to meet the whole macroscopically sustainable development of Qingyang.
本论文在理论推演的基础上,构建了县域可持续发展评价指标体系及评价模型,分析了区域可持续发展系统的结构、功能、特征及其因果反馈关系,并以庆阳为例进行了实证研究。联合使用着重于空间现象分析处理的GIS技术与着重于时间序列动态模拟的SD方法,对庆阳各县(区)区域可持续发展的时空演变特征进行了研究,分析了庆阳各县(区)1990年以来区域可持续发展的时空演变规律,并对2007年后区域可持续发展的时空演变趋势进行了预测研究。最后,设计了适合庆阳的区域可持续发展路径。本论文的研究具体包括以下几方面:
1.关于评价指标体系和评价模型的分析。设计了县域可持续发展的评价指标体系,并将所有评价指标划分为元指标与二次指标两类:确定了区域可持续发展的综合评价模型,在全面考虑区域发展的持续性和协调性的基础上,对区域可持续发展加以综合评价。
2.关于区域可持续发展系统的分析。认为区域可持续发展系统内存在着一系列复杂的因果反馈作用关系,体现在主要的因果反馈作用回路上,这些反馈回路相互联系、相互制约,影响着区域可持续发展系统的运行方向。
3.关于庆阳区域可持续发展状况的实证评价。对庆阳各县(区)的区域可持续发展状况进行了综合评价与分析,结果表明:1990—2007年,庆阳各县(区)的区域可持续发展综合水平总体上是在逐渐增强,但这种增强的主要拉动力是经济的快速增长与社会的迅速进步,是以牺牲资源和环境为代价的。
4.关于庆阳区域可持续发展的趋势预测。运用系统动力学模型预测了庆阳各县(区)未来的区域可持续发展变化趋势,研究表明传统经济发展模式是不可持续的发展模式。在传统经济发展模式下,2007—2020年庆阳各县(区)的区域可持续发展综合水平将会逐渐转为下降的趋势,经济增长速度越快,这种现象越明显。
5.关于庆阳区域可持续发展的空间结构演变分析。使用重心位移分析方法,分析了1990年以来庆阳区域可持续发展的空间结构演变规律及2007年后庆阳区域可持续发展的空间结构演变趋势。研究表明,庆阳区域可持续发展的空间分布不均衡,各县区差异较大,且空间结构不稳定,随时间变化波动较大,经济增速越快,波动就越大,区域可持续发展系统会越不稳定。
6.关于庆阳区域可持续发展的实现路径分析。从生态经济学的角度设计了适合于庆阳的区域可持续发展路径,将生态经济的理念贯穿于庆阳的区域发展中,认为发展生态工业、发展生态农业、发展生态服务业、推广生态消费是最适合庆阳的区域可持续发展路径。
综上所述,一方面本论文丰富与发展了区域可持续发展理论,为区域可持续发展方面的研究提供了新思路、新方法,具有重要的理论意义。另一方面,又能够为庆阳相关政府部门制定区域可持续发展战略提供科学依据,有助于实现微观区域的可持续发展,从而最终实现宏观层面上的整体可持续发展,具有重大的现实意义。
Along with the rapid growth of economic development, the human beings have been addressed abundant substance civilization, and on the other hand, series crisis about the population expansion, resource shortage, ecological destruction and environmental pollution have emerged. Therefore, the human beings must change traditional development mode into sustainable development mode. The sustainable development of microcosmic region is the basis of macroscopical sustainable development. From the viewpoint of geography science, the study on the regional systemic sustainable development based on the systemic analysis theory is an innovative and valuable behavior to the field of regional sustainable development research.
Based on theoretical deduction, this thesis established an indicators' system and a model as well to assess the regional sustainable development on the county level, and analyzed the structure, function, characters and feedback relation of regional sustainable developmental system by taking Qingyang as a case. Based on the approach of GIS and SD, this thesis respectively analyzed the characters of the temporal and spatial evolvement on the sub-regional sustainable development in Qingyang, and doped out the temporal and spatial evolvement trend as well. In the end, the road to address the sustainable development of Qingyang is designed and proposed. The research includes several aspects as following:
1. Analysis on the assessment indicators' system and assessment model. This thesis proposed an indicators' system, which is categorized as meta-data index and secondary index, to assess the regional sustainable development on county level. And then, this thesis established a general assessment model considered the sustainability and co-ordinability to synthetically evaluate the regional development.
2. Analysis on the regional sustainable developmental system. The outcome shows that the system contains a series of complicated causality and feedback which is represented as catena closed loops. The loops affect each other result of redirecting the regional sustainable development system.
3. Assessment of the regional sustainable development of Qingyang. The thesis assessed and analyzed the quo state of sub-regional (county level) sustainable development in Qingyang. The outcome shows that the integrated sustainability on the county level is increased gradually, where the driving force for increasing is due to the rapid growing of the society and economy along with the cost of abundant resources consumption and ecosystem degradation.
4. Prediction of regional sustainable development of Qingyang. This thesis predicted the evolvement trend of sub-regional sustainable development in Qingyang based on the methodology of SD. The outcome shows that the traditional economic development mode is not sustainable. Under the traditional economic development, the integrated sustainability of sub-region will decline continually from 2007 to 2020. The decline could be more obvious if the economic growth is more rapid.
5. Analysis on the evolvement of spatial structure of regional sustainable development of Qingyang. This thesis analyzed the historical evolvement and trend of spatial structure disciplinarian of regional sustainable development based on the method of Gravity Center Shift. The outcome shows that the spatial distribution is unbalance. The spatial structure is unsteady, and the undulation is obvious. The more rapid growth of economic development, the undulation is more obvious, and the regional sustainable development system is more unsteady.
6. Analysis on the developmental path to meet the regional sustainable development. From the perspective of ecological economics, this thesis proposed a suitable path used for Qingyang to meet the sustainable development, which embodies the conception of ecological economics. It is considered that the suitable path includes ecological industry, ecological agriculture, ecological service industry and ecological consumption.
In conclusion, on the one hand, this thesis is of important theoretical significance, which is expected to enrich and develop the theory on regional sustainable development, and to provide new idea and method as well for the research on regional sustainable development. On the other hand, this thesis has prominent practical significance, which could provide scientific foundation for the local government to make the developmental polices which is propitious to achieve the microcosmic regional sustainable development, and to meet the whole macroscopically sustainable development of Qingyang.
引文
[1]冯年华.区域可持续发展理论与实证研究-基于创新与能力建设角度[D].南京农业大学博士学位论文,2003.
[2]承继成,林珲,杨汝万.面向信息社会的区域可持续发展导论[M].北京:商务印书馆,2001.1-5.
[3]董志芸.我国区域可持续发展空间差异的定量研究[D].河北大学硕士学位论文,2004.
[4]苏黎明.区域可持续发展的测度与评价-以珠海市为例[D].暨南大学硕士学位论文,2006.
[5]岳敏,李含琳.陇东黄土高原PREE系统可持续发展动态分析-以甘肃省庆阳市为例[J].经济地理,2009,29(1):124-129.
[6]Rachel Carson.Silence Spring[M].Boston:Houghton Mifflin company,1962.
[7]Dennis L.Meadows.The Limits to Growth[M].New York:Universe Books,1972.
[8]郑军南.生态足迹理论在区域可持续发展评价中的应用-以浙江省为例[D].浙江大学硕士学位论文,2006.
[9]李利锋,郑度.区域可持续发展评价:进展与展望[J].地理科学进展,2002,21(3):237-248.
[10]Trzyna T C(eds).A Sustainable World:Defining and Measuring Sustainable Development[M].London:Earthscan,1995.
[11]Cobb C.The Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare[A].In:Daly H E,Cobb J B(eds).For the Common Good[C].Boston:Beacon Press,1989.401-455.
[12]Cobb C,Halstead T.The Genuine Progress Indicator[M].San Francisco:Redefining Progress,1994.
[13]Hardi P,Barg S.Measuring Sustainable Development:Reviewing of Current Practice[M].Ottawa:Industry Canada,1997.
[14]Hicks John Richard.Value and Capital[M].Oxford:Clarendon Press,1946.
[15]Stockhammer E,Hochreiter H,Obermeyr Bet al.The index of sustainable economic welfare as an alternative to GDP in measuring economic welfare.The results of the Austrian(revised) ISEW calculation 1955-1992[J].Ecological Economics,1997,21(1):19-34.
[16]皮尔斯(Pearce D W),沃福德(Warlord J J)著.张世秋等译.世界无末日:经济学,环境与可持续发展[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,1996.
[17]The World Bank.Monitoring Environmental Progress:A Report on Work in Progress[M].New York:The World Bank,1995.
[18]The World Bank.Expanding the Measure of Wealth:Indicators of Environmentally Sustainable Development[M].New York:The World Bank,1997.
[19]Daly H.On Wilfied Beckerman's critique of sustainable development[J].Environmental Values,1995,4(1):49-56.
[20]Dale Jamieson.Sustainability and beyond[J].Ecological Economics,1998,24(2):183-192.
[21]UNDP.Human Development Report,1990,1991,1994,1995,1997[M].New York:Oxford University Press.
[22]Sagar A D,Najam A.The human development index:a critical review[J].Ecological Economics,1998,25(3):249-264.
[23]Yoshihiko Wada.The myth of 'sustainable development':The ecological footprint of Japanese consumption[Dissertation D].Vancouver,B.C.:School of Community and Regional Planning,The University of British Columbia,Canada,1999.
[24]Mathis Wackemagel,William E(Rees).Our Ecological Footprint:Reducing Human Impact on the Earth[M].Gabriola Island B.C.,Canada:New Society Publishers,1996.
[25]Mathis Wackernagel.Ecological footprint and appropriated carrying capacity:a tool for planning toward sustainability[Dissertation D].Vancouver,B.C.:School of Community and Regional Planning,The University of British Columbia,Canada,1994.
[26]William E(Rees).Revisiting carrying capacity:area-based indicators of sustainability[J].Population and Environment,1996,170):195-215.
[27]牛文元.持续发展导论[M].北京:科学出版社,1994.21-30.
[28]Victousek P,Ehrlich P,Enrlich A et al.Human appropriation of the products of photosynthesis [J].Bioscience,1986,36(6):368-373.
[29]中国21世纪议程管理中心,中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所.可持续发展指标体系的理论与实践[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2004.53-65.
[30]叶文虎,陈国谦.三种生产论:可持续发展的基本理论[J].中国人口资源与环境,1997,7(2):14-18.
[31]王黎明,毛汉英.区域可持续发展综合集成研讨厅体系研究[J].地理研究,1998,17(4):408-414.
[32]张志强.区域PRED的系统分析与决策制定方法[J].地理研究,1995,14(4):62-68.
[33]王黎明.区域可持续发展-基于人地关系地域系统的视角[M].北京:中国经济出版社,1998.1-8.
[34]王黎明.面向PRED问题的人地关系系统构型理论与方法研究[J].地理研究,1997A6(2):38-43.
[35]钱智.区域可持续发展一般理论分析[J].中国可持续发展,2000,(1).
[36]曹利军.可持续发展评价理论与方法[M].北京:科学出版社,1999.
[37]任建兰.区域可持续发展理论与方法[M].济南:山东省地图出版社,1998.
[38]申玉铭,毛汉英.区域可持续发展的若干理论问题研究[J].地理科学进展,1999,18(4):287-293.
[39]叶民强,张世英.区域可持续发展系统及其目标实现过程研究[J].科技进步与对策,2001,(2):27-29.
[40]龚胜生.论区域可持续发展系统的三大关系[J].华中师范大学学报(自然科学版),1999,33(4):596-604.
[41]刘彦随.区域可持续发展系统原理与决策[J].陕西师范大学学报(自然科学版),1996,24(2):98-102.
[42]陈迎.可持续发展指标和指标体系研究现状简评[J].世界经济与政治,1997,(6):51-54.
[43]中科院可持续发展研究组.2001年中国可持续发展战略报告[J].北京:科学出版社,2001.
[44]赵景柱.持续发展的理论分析[J].生态经济,1991,(2):12-15.
[45]黄仁涛.中国社会发展水平评价及动态制图[J].武汉测绘科技大学学报,1994,19(4):339-345.
[46]龚建华.GIS支持下的区域持续发展研究[D].北京大学博士学位论文,1995.
[47]毛汉英.省级可持续发展指标体系初步研究.中国可持续发展论坛材料之一.
[48]冷疏影,刘燕华.中国脆弱生态区可持续发展指标体系框架设计[J].中国人口资源与环境,1999,9(2):40-45.
[49]叶正波.可持续发展评估理论及实践[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2002.1-15.
[50]李善峰.中国可持续发展实验区研究[M].山东:齐鲁书社,2004.1-35.
[51]方创琳.区域发展规划论[M].北京:科学出版社,2000.1-13.
[52]张学文,叶元煦.区域可持续发展三维系统理论初探[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报,2002,23(2):126-129.
[53]黄秉维.区域可持续发展的理论基础一陆地系统科学[J].地理学报,1996,51(5):445-452.
[54]牛文元等.可持续发展理论的系统解析[M].武汉:湖北科学技术出版社,1998.6-42.
[55]毛汉英.人地系统与区域持续发展研究[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1995.15-38.
[56]申玉铭,杨燕凤.区域可持续发展的系统调控研究[J].经济地理,1997,17(2):8-15.
[57]巩建华.可持续发展的理论基础探讨[J].兰州学刊,1998,(6):37-39.
[58]周海林.可持续发展原理[M].北京:商务印书馆,2004.77-124.
[59]秦耀辰等.区域持续发展的基本理论及其实践意义[J].地理科学进展,1997,16(1):15-23.
[60]杨万钟.经济地理学导论[M].上海:华东师范大学出版社,1999.1-11.
[6l]邬伦等.地理信息系统原理、方法和应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2001.1-3.
[62]严茂超.生态经济学新论-理论、方法与应用[M].北京:中国致公出版社,2001.4-9.
[63]姜学民,徐志辉.生态经济学通论[M].北京:中国林业出版社,1993.1-7.
[64]张海如.区域经济教程[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2002.1-22.
[65]倪兆球.环境经济学[M].广州:广东教育出版社,1995.5-15.
[66]张履鹏等.资源经济学[M].开封:河南大学出版社,1993.1-9.
[67]王其藩.高级系统动力学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1995-1.5.
[68]梅安新等.遥感导论[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2001.1-3.
[69]徐建华.现代地理学中的数学方法[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2002.224-251.
[70]吕潭华.可持续发展评价指标体系研究[D].厦门大学硕士学位论文,2002.
[71]刘国,许模,于静.可持续发展评价指标体系研究评述[J].成都理工大学学报(社会科学版),2007,15(3):29-33.
[72]刘求实,沈红.区域可持续发展指标体系与评价方法研究[J].中国人口资源与环境,1997,7(4):60-64.
[73]乔家君,许萍,王宜晓.区域可持续发展指标体系研究综述[J].河南大学学报(自然科学版),2002,32(4):71-75.
[74]兰国良.可持续发展指标体系建构及其应用研究[D].天津大学博士学位论文,2004.
[75]余丹林.区域可持续发展评价指标体系的构建思路[J].地理科学进展,1998,17(2):84-89.
[76]李植斌.区域可持续发展评价指标体系与方法的初步研究[J].人文地理,1998,13(4):70-74.
[77]Liverman D M,Hanson M E,Brown B J et al.Global sustainability:toward measurement[J].Environmental Management,1988,12(2):133-143.
[78]Peter Hardi,Terrence Zdan.The Belllagio principles for assessment[A].In:Peter Hardi and Terrence Zdan(eds).Assessing sustainable development:Principles in practice[C],Winnipeg,Canada:International Institute of Sustainable Development,1997.
[79]黄艳.甘肃省少数民族地区生态环境约束下的经济发展研究[D].兰州大学硕士学位论文,2007.
[80]顾培亮.系统分析与协调[M].天津:天津大学出版杜,1998.
[81]曾珍香,顾培亮.可持续发展的系统分析与评价[M].北京:科学出版社,2000.48-81.
[82]钱学森等.组织管理的技术-系统工程,论系统工程(增订本)[M].长沙:湖南科学技术出版社,1988.
[83]熊德国.系统科学理论在区域可持续发展中的应用研究[D].重庆大学博士学位论文,2004.
[84]Rosen R.Some comments on systems and system theory[J].International Journal of General Systems,1986,13(1):1-3.
[85]李新运等.济南市可持续发展系统分析[J].国土开发与整治,1998,8(1):14-18.
[86]杨志恒.区域可持续发展系统空间协调分析及动态模拟研究[D].山东师范大学硕士学位论文,2003.
[87]肖广岭.可持续发展与系统动力学[J].自然辩证法研究,1997,13(4):37-41.
[88]胡大伟.基于系统动力学和神经网络模型的区域可持续发展的仿真研究-以江苏省建湖生态县为例[D].南京农业大学博士学位论文,2006.
[89]Katsuhiko ogata.System Dynamics(Fourth Edition)[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2005.22-57.
[90]王其藩.社会经济复杂系统动态分析[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,1992.
[91]余洁,边馥苓,胡炳清.基于GIS和SD方法的社会经济发展与生态环境响应动态模拟预测研究[J].武汉大学学报(信息科学版),2003,28(1):18-24.
[92]张为民.北京城市可持续发展综合评价研究[D].北京工业大学博士学位论文,2002.
[93]朱丽.广州市环境、经济和社会可持续发展综合评价[D].中国科学院研究生院博士学位论文,2006.
[94]赵书茂.基于GIS的区域可持续经济发展研究-以河南省为例[D].解放军信息工程大学博士学位论文,2004.
[95]郭仁忠.空间分析[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2001.77-116.
[96]冯宗宪,黄建山.1978--2003年中国经济重心与产业重心的动态轨迹及其对比研究[J].经济地理,2006,26(2):249-254.
[97]乔家君,李小建.近50年来中国经济重心移动路径分析[J].地域研究与开发,2005,24(1):12-16.
[98]黄建山,冯宗宪.陕西省社会经济重心与环境污染重心的演变路径及其对比分析[J].人文地理'206,(4):117-122.
[99]张平,黄建山.1952-2005年我国消费经济重心移动路径分析[J].统计与决策,2008,(18):99-101.
[100]樊杰,陶普曼W.中国农村工业化的经济分析及省际发展水平差异[J].地理学报,1996,51(5):398-407.
[101]Asheim B,Dunford M.Regional futures[J].Regional Studies,1997,31(5):445-455.
[102]周民良.经济重心、区域差距与协调发展[J].中国社会科学,2000,20(2):42-53.
[103]肖焰恒,陈艳.生态工业理论及其模式实现途径探讨[J].中国人口资源与环境,2001,11(3):100-103.
[104]冯久田.基于循环经济的生态工业理论研究与实证分析[D].武汉理工大学博士学位论 文,2005.
[105]诸大建.从可持续发展到循环型经济[J].世界环境,2000,(3):6-12.
[106]刘庆广.甘肃省循环经济发展模式研究[D].兰州大学博士学位论文,2007.
[107]翟勇.中国生态农业理论与模式研究[D].西北农林科技大学博士学位论文,2006.
[108]赵志龙.庆阳农业产业化存在的问题及发展对策[J].甘肃农业,2007,(6):52-53.
[109]汪中华.我国民族地区生态建设与经济发展的耦合研究[D].东北林业大学博士学位论文,2005.
[110]苗红.基于文化生态学的庆阳农耕文化与区域环境关系研究[D].兰州大学博士学位论文,2007.
[111]李可媛.绿色物流的内涵及其发展策略探析[J].现代物流,2005,28(2):53-54.
[112]李艳萍.基于绿色餐饮的我国餐饮企业检测体系研究[D].天津商业大学硕士学位论文,2007.
[113]蓝娟.论生态消费及其实现[D].成都理工大学硕士学位论文,2007.
[114]卿定文,张菊.建设环境友好型社会呼唤生态消费[J].消费经济,2006,22(3):11-14.
[115]王信.西部生态环境重建中生态消费问题的思考[J].林业经济,2006,(4):26-28.
[116]钟芸香.构建我国生态消费模式的探讨[J].消费经济,2008,24(3):29-32.
[117]杨松茂.生态消费:人类消费行为发展的深度思考[J].特区经济,2005,(10):50-52.
[2]承继成,林珲,杨汝万.面向信息社会的区域可持续发展导论[M].北京:商务印书馆,2001.1-5.
[3]董志芸.我国区域可持续发展空间差异的定量研究[D].河北大学硕士学位论文,2004.
[4]苏黎明.区域可持续发展的测度与评价-以珠海市为例[D].暨南大学硕士学位论文,2006.
[5]岳敏,李含琳.陇东黄土高原PREE系统可持续发展动态分析-以甘肃省庆阳市为例[J].经济地理,2009,29(1):124-129.
[6]Rachel Carson.Silence Spring[M].Boston:Houghton Mifflin company,1962.
[7]Dennis L.Meadows.The Limits to Growth[M].New York:Universe Books,1972.
[8]郑军南.生态足迹理论在区域可持续发展评价中的应用-以浙江省为例[D].浙江大学硕士学位论文,2006.
[9]李利锋,郑度.区域可持续发展评价:进展与展望[J].地理科学进展,2002,21(3):237-248.
[10]Trzyna T C(eds).A Sustainable World:Defining and Measuring Sustainable Development[M].London:Earthscan,1995.
[11]Cobb C.The Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare[A].In:Daly H E,Cobb J B(eds).For the Common Good[C].Boston:Beacon Press,1989.401-455.
[12]Cobb C,Halstead T.The Genuine Progress Indicator[M].San Francisco:Redefining Progress,1994.
[13]Hardi P,Barg S.Measuring Sustainable Development:Reviewing of Current Practice[M].Ottawa:Industry Canada,1997.
[14]Hicks John Richard.Value and Capital[M].Oxford:Clarendon Press,1946.
[15]Stockhammer E,Hochreiter H,Obermeyr Bet al.The index of sustainable economic welfare as an alternative to GDP in measuring economic welfare.The results of the Austrian(revised) ISEW calculation 1955-1992[J].Ecological Economics,1997,21(1):19-34.
[16]皮尔斯(Pearce D W),沃福德(Warlord J J)著.张世秋等译.世界无末日:经济学,环境与可持续发展[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,1996.
[17]The World Bank.Monitoring Environmental Progress:A Report on Work in Progress[M].New York:The World Bank,1995.
[18]The World Bank.Expanding the Measure of Wealth:Indicators of Environmentally Sustainable Development[M].New York:The World Bank,1997.
[19]Daly H.On Wilfied Beckerman's critique of sustainable development[J].Environmental Values,1995,4(1):49-56.
[20]Dale Jamieson.Sustainability and beyond[J].Ecological Economics,1998,24(2):183-192.
[21]UNDP.Human Development Report,1990,1991,1994,1995,1997[M].New York:Oxford University Press.
[22]Sagar A D,Najam A.The human development index:a critical review[J].Ecological Economics,1998,25(3):249-264.
[23]Yoshihiko Wada.The myth of 'sustainable development':The ecological footprint of Japanese consumption[Dissertation D].Vancouver,B.C.:School of Community and Regional Planning,The University of British Columbia,Canada,1999.
[24]Mathis Wackemagel,William E(Rees).Our Ecological Footprint:Reducing Human Impact on the Earth[M].Gabriola Island B.C.,Canada:New Society Publishers,1996.
[25]Mathis Wackernagel.Ecological footprint and appropriated carrying capacity:a tool for planning toward sustainability[Dissertation D].Vancouver,B.C.:School of Community and Regional Planning,The University of British Columbia,Canada,1994.
[26]William E(Rees).Revisiting carrying capacity:area-based indicators of sustainability[J].Population and Environment,1996,170):195-215.
[27]牛文元.持续发展导论[M].北京:科学出版社,1994.21-30.
[28]Victousek P,Ehrlich P,Enrlich A et al.Human appropriation of the products of photosynthesis [J].Bioscience,1986,36(6):368-373.
[29]中国21世纪议程管理中心,中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所.可持续发展指标体系的理论与实践[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2004.53-65.
[30]叶文虎,陈国谦.三种生产论:可持续发展的基本理论[J].中国人口资源与环境,1997,7(2):14-18.
[31]王黎明,毛汉英.区域可持续发展综合集成研讨厅体系研究[J].地理研究,1998,17(4):408-414.
[32]张志强.区域PRED的系统分析与决策制定方法[J].地理研究,1995,14(4):62-68.
[33]王黎明.区域可持续发展-基于人地关系地域系统的视角[M].北京:中国经济出版社,1998.1-8.
[34]王黎明.面向PRED问题的人地关系系统构型理论与方法研究[J].地理研究,1997A6(2):38-43.
[35]钱智.区域可持续发展一般理论分析[J].中国可持续发展,2000,(1).
[36]曹利军.可持续发展评价理论与方法[M].北京:科学出版社,1999.
[37]任建兰.区域可持续发展理论与方法[M].济南:山东省地图出版社,1998.
[38]申玉铭,毛汉英.区域可持续发展的若干理论问题研究[J].地理科学进展,1999,18(4):287-293.
[39]叶民强,张世英.区域可持续发展系统及其目标实现过程研究[J].科技进步与对策,2001,(2):27-29.
[40]龚胜生.论区域可持续发展系统的三大关系[J].华中师范大学学报(自然科学版),1999,33(4):596-604.
[41]刘彦随.区域可持续发展系统原理与决策[J].陕西师范大学学报(自然科学版),1996,24(2):98-102.
[42]陈迎.可持续发展指标和指标体系研究现状简评[J].世界经济与政治,1997,(6):51-54.
[43]中科院可持续发展研究组.2001年中国可持续发展战略报告[J].北京:科学出版社,2001.
[44]赵景柱.持续发展的理论分析[J].生态经济,1991,(2):12-15.
[45]黄仁涛.中国社会发展水平评价及动态制图[J].武汉测绘科技大学学报,1994,19(4):339-345.
[46]龚建华.GIS支持下的区域持续发展研究[D].北京大学博士学位论文,1995.
[47]毛汉英.省级可持续发展指标体系初步研究.中国可持续发展论坛材料之一.
[48]冷疏影,刘燕华.中国脆弱生态区可持续发展指标体系框架设计[J].中国人口资源与环境,1999,9(2):40-45.
[49]叶正波.可持续发展评估理论及实践[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2002.1-15.
[50]李善峰.中国可持续发展实验区研究[M].山东:齐鲁书社,2004.1-35.
[51]方创琳.区域发展规划论[M].北京:科学出版社,2000.1-13.
[52]张学文,叶元煦.区域可持续发展三维系统理论初探[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报,2002,23(2):126-129.
[53]黄秉维.区域可持续发展的理论基础一陆地系统科学[J].地理学报,1996,51(5):445-452.
[54]牛文元等.可持续发展理论的系统解析[M].武汉:湖北科学技术出版社,1998.6-42.
[55]毛汉英.人地系统与区域持续发展研究[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1995.15-38.
[56]申玉铭,杨燕凤.区域可持续发展的系统调控研究[J].经济地理,1997,17(2):8-15.
[57]巩建华.可持续发展的理论基础探讨[J].兰州学刊,1998,(6):37-39.
[58]周海林.可持续发展原理[M].北京:商务印书馆,2004.77-124.
[59]秦耀辰等.区域持续发展的基本理论及其实践意义[J].地理科学进展,1997,16(1):15-23.
[60]杨万钟.经济地理学导论[M].上海:华东师范大学出版社,1999.1-11.
[6l]邬伦等.地理信息系统原理、方法和应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2001.1-3.
[62]严茂超.生态经济学新论-理论、方法与应用[M].北京:中国致公出版社,2001.4-9.
[63]姜学民,徐志辉.生态经济学通论[M].北京:中国林业出版社,1993.1-7.
[64]张海如.区域经济教程[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2002.1-22.
[65]倪兆球.环境经济学[M].广州:广东教育出版社,1995.5-15.
[66]张履鹏等.资源经济学[M].开封:河南大学出版社,1993.1-9.
[67]王其藩.高级系统动力学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1995-1.5.
[68]梅安新等.遥感导论[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2001.1-3.
[69]徐建华.现代地理学中的数学方法[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2002.224-251.
[70]吕潭华.可持续发展评价指标体系研究[D].厦门大学硕士学位论文,2002.
[71]刘国,许模,于静.可持续发展评价指标体系研究评述[J].成都理工大学学报(社会科学版),2007,15(3):29-33.
[72]刘求实,沈红.区域可持续发展指标体系与评价方法研究[J].中国人口资源与环境,1997,7(4):60-64.
[73]乔家君,许萍,王宜晓.区域可持续发展指标体系研究综述[J].河南大学学报(自然科学版),2002,32(4):71-75.
[74]兰国良.可持续发展指标体系建构及其应用研究[D].天津大学博士学位论文,2004.
[75]余丹林.区域可持续发展评价指标体系的构建思路[J].地理科学进展,1998,17(2):84-89.
[76]李植斌.区域可持续发展评价指标体系与方法的初步研究[J].人文地理,1998,13(4):70-74.
[77]Liverman D M,Hanson M E,Brown B J et al.Global sustainability:toward measurement[J].Environmental Management,1988,12(2):133-143.
[78]Peter Hardi,Terrence Zdan.The Belllagio principles for assessment[A].In:Peter Hardi and Terrence Zdan(eds).Assessing sustainable development:Principles in practice[C],Winnipeg,Canada:International Institute of Sustainable Development,1997.
[79]黄艳.甘肃省少数民族地区生态环境约束下的经济发展研究[D].兰州大学硕士学位论文,2007.
[80]顾培亮.系统分析与协调[M].天津:天津大学出版杜,1998.
[81]曾珍香,顾培亮.可持续发展的系统分析与评价[M].北京:科学出版社,2000.48-81.
[82]钱学森等.组织管理的技术-系统工程,论系统工程(增订本)[M].长沙:湖南科学技术出版社,1988.
[83]熊德国.系统科学理论在区域可持续发展中的应用研究[D].重庆大学博士学位论文,2004.
[84]Rosen R.Some comments on systems and system theory[J].International Journal of General Systems,1986,13(1):1-3.
[85]李新运等.济南市可持续发展系统分析[J].国土开发与整治,1998,8(1):14-18.
[86]杨志恒.区域可持续发展系统空间协调分析及动态模拟研究[D].山东师范大学硕士学位论文,2003.
[87]肖广岭.可持续发展与系统动力学[J].自然辩证法研究,1997,13(4):37-41.
[88]胡大伟.基于系统动力学和神经网络模型的区域可持续发展的仿真研究-以江苏省建湖生态县为例[D].南京农业大学博士学位论文,2006.
[89]Katsuhiko ogata.System Dynamics(Fourth Edition)[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2005.22-57.
[90]王其藩.社会经济复杂系统动态分析[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,1992.
[91]余洁,边馥苓,胡炳清.基于GIS和SD方法的社会经济发展与生态环境响应动态模拟预测研究[J].武汉大学学报(信息科学版),2003,28(1):18-24.
[92]张为民.北京城市可持续发展综合评价研究[D].北京工业大学博士学位论文,2002.
[93]朱丽.广州市环境、经济和社会可持续发展综合评价[D].中国科学院研究生院博士学位论文,2006.
[94]赵书茂.基于GIS的区域可持续经济发展研究-以河南省为例[D].解放军信息工程大学博士学位论文,2004.
[95]郭仁忠.空间分析[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2001.77-116.
[96]冯宗宪,黄建山.1978--2003年中国经济重心与产业重心的动态轨迹及其对比研究[J].经济地理,2006,26(2):249-254.
[97]乔家君,李小建.近50年来中国经济重心移动路径分析[J].地域研究与开发,2005,24(1):12-16.
[98]黄建山,冯宗宪.陕西省社会经济重心与环境污染重心的演变路径及其对比分析[J].人文地理'206,(4):117-122.
[99]张平,黄建山.1952-2005年我国消费经济重心移动路径分析[J].统计与决策,2008,(18):99-101.
[100]樊杰,陶普曼W.中国农村工业化的经济分析及省际发展水平差异[J].地理学报,1996,51(5):398-407.
[101]Asheim B,Dunford M.Regional futures[J].Regional Studies,1997,31(5):445-455.
[102]周民良.经济重心、区域差距与协调发展[J].中国社会科学,2000,20(2):42-53.
[103]肖焰恒,陈艳.生态工业理论及其模式实现途径探讨[J].中国人口资源与环境,2001,11(3):100-103.
[104]冯久田.基于循环经济的生态工业理论研究与实证分析[D].武汉理工大学博士学位论 文,2005.
[105]诸大建.从可持续发展到循环型经济[J].世界环境,2000,(3):6-12.
[106]刘庆广.甘肃省循环经济发展模式研究[D].兰州大学博士学位论文,2007.
[107]翟勇.中国生态农业理论与模式研究[D].西北农林科技大学博士学位论文,2006.
[108]赵志龙.庆阳农业产业化存在的问题及发展对策[J].甘肃农业,2007,(6):52-53.
[109]汪中华.我国民族地区生态建设与经济发展的耦合研究[D].东北林业大学博士学位论文,2005.
[110]苗红.基于文化生态学的庆阳农耕文化与区域环境关系研究[D].兰州大学博士学位论文,2007.
[111]李可媛.绿色物流的内涵及其发展策略探析[J].现代物流,2005,28(2):53-54.
[112]李艳萍.基于绿色餐饮的我国餐饮企业检测体系研究[D].天津商业大学硕士学位论文,2007.
[113]蓝娟.论生态消费及其实现[D].成都理工大学硕士学位论文,2007.
[114]卿定文,张菊.建设环境友好型社会呼唤生态消费[J].消费经济,2006,22(3):11-14.
[115]王信.西部生态环境重建中生态消费问题的思考[J].林业经济,2006,(4):26-28.
[116]钟芸香.构建我国生态消费模式的探讨[J].消费经济,2008,24(3):29-32.
[117]杨松茂.生态消费:人类消费行为发展的深度思考[J].特区经济,2005,(10):50-52.