东盟五国财政投资与经济增长关系研究
摘要
自20世纪60年代以来,撇开20世纪80年代中期世界经济衰退和20世纪90年代中期爆发的亚洲金融危机两个短暂时期,菲律宾以外的其他四个东盟国家(印度尼西亚、马来西亚、新加坡和泰国)的经济长期以来保持了较快的增长速度,菲律宾由于受到国内政治动荡和经济政策失误的影响,经济增长速度逐渐落后于其余四个国家。
本文从公共投资(包括公共基础设施投资、公共R&D投资与公共教育投资)的角度探讨东盟五国经济增长及其差异的原因。本文的研究得出以下结论:
一、受到投资效率和投资规模的影响,公共基础设施投资对东盟五个国家长期经济增长的作用不同。其中,印度尼西亚、马来西亚、新加坡和泰国公共基础设施资本对经济增长具有显著的促进作用。而菲律宾公共基础设施资本则由于使用效率低下,对产出增长促进作用不大。
二、新加坡和马来西亚财政R&D投资以及R&D相关的财政税收激励带动了私人部门R&D投资,两国总体R&D投资水平上升较快,进而促进了两国的经济增长。相反,泰国、印度尼西亚和菲律宾的政府R&D投资活动以及R&D投资激励政策对促进私人部门R&D投资的作用不大,总体R&D投资水平呈现下降趋势。因而,这三个国家公共R&D对促进经济增长作用有限。
三、东盟五国中,新加坡和菲律宾公共教育投资对经济增长促进作用明显,而印尼、马来西亚和泰国公共教育投资对长期经济增长的解释作用不大。教育投资的结构不完善和效率低下是这三个国家公共教育投资对经济增长没有产生显著促进作用的主要原因。
本文从公共投资角度来分析和比较东盟国家经济增长及其差异的原因,补充和完善了对东盟国家经济增长原因的研究。
Since the 1960s, except two short periods of the world economic recession in the mid-1980s and Asian financial crisis in 1997, the economic growth of Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand maintained a relatively high economic growth, while the Philippines gradually lagged behind the other four ASEAN countries, due to its political turmoil and problems of its economic policies.
The dissertation addresses the issue of the source of economic growth and disparity of ASEAN-5 in the perspective of public investment (including public infrastructure investment, public R&D investment and public education investment), and comes to the following conclusions:
1. Public infrastructure investment has different impacts on economic growth of ASEAN-5 because of the differences in investment efficiency and scale. Infrastructure capital of Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand has significant positive effect on economic growth; however, the infrastructure capital has no significant effect on economic growth of the Philippines because of its low investment efficiency.
2. Public R&D investment and fiscal incentives to R&D in Singapore and Malaysia largely promoted private R&D investment, resulting in an increase of overall R&D investment. As a result, public R&D activities of these two countries have a significant positive effect on economic growth. On the contrary, public R&D activities of Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines have little impact on the private R&D investment, and the overall R&D investment as percentage of GDP presents a decreasing trend. Therefore, in the three countries, public R&D activities have limited effect on economic growth.
3. Among ASEAN-5 countries, government education expenditure of Singapore and the Philippines significantly promoted economic growth. However, government educational expenditure of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand can not significantly explain economic growth of these countries, and the structural problem and low efficiency of government educational expenditure are the main reasons.
The analysis here would complement the research on the source of economic growth and economic disparity of ASEAN countries in the perspective of public investment.
本文从公共投资(包括公共基础设施投资、公共R&D投资与公共教育投资)的角度探讨东盟五国经济增长及其差异的原因。本文的研究得出以下结论:
一、受到投资效率和投资规模的影响,公共基础设施投资对东盟五个国家长期经济增长的作用不同。其中,印度尼西亚、马来西亚、新加坡和泰国公共基础设施资本对经济增长具有显著的促进作用。而菲律宾公共基础设施资本则由于使用效率低下,对产出增长促进作用不大。
二、新加坡和马来西亚财政R&D投资以及R&D相关的财政税收激励带动了私人部门R&D投资,两国总体R&D投资水平上升较快,进而促进了两国的经济增长。相反,泰国、印度尼西亚和菲律宾的政府R&D投资活动以及R&D投资激励政策对促进私人部门R&D投资的作用不大,总体R&D投资水平呈现下降趋势。因而,这三个国家公共R&D对促进经济增长作用有限。
三、东盟五国中,新加坡和菲律宾公共教育投资对经济增长促进作用明显,而印尼、马来西亚和泰国公共教育投资对长期经济增长的解释作用不大。教育投资的结构不完善和效率低下是这三个国家公共教育投资对经济增长没有产生显著促进作用的主要原因。
本文从公共投资角度来分析和比较东盟国家经济增长及其差异的原因,补充和完善了对东盟国家经济增长原因的研究。
Since the 1960s, except two short periods of the world economic recession in the mid-1980s and Asian financial crisis in 1997, the economic growth of Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand maintained a relatively high economic growth, while the Philippines gradually lagged behind the other four ASEAN countries, due to its political turmoil and problems of its economic policies.
The dissertation addresses the issue of the source of economic growth and disparity of ASEAN-5 in the perspective of public investment (including public infrastructure investment, public R&D investment and public education investment), and comes to the following conclusions:
1. Public infrastructure investment has different impacts on economic growth of ASEAN-5 because of the differences in investment efficiency and scale. Infrastructure capital of Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand has significant positive effect on economic growth; however, the infrastructure capital has no significant effect on economic growth of the Philippines because of its low investment efficiency.
2. Public R&D investment and fiscal incentives to R&D in Singapore and Malaysia largely promoted private R&D investment, resulting in an increase of overall R&D investment. As a result, public R&D activities of these two countries have a significant positive effect on economic growth. On the contrary, public R&D activities of Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines have little impact on the private R&D investment, and the overall R&D investment as percentage of GDP presents a decreasing trend. Therefore, in the three countries, public R&D activities have limited effect on economic growth.
3. Among ASEAN-5 countries, government education expenditure of Singapore and the Philippines significantly promoted economic growth. However, government educational expenditure of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand can not significantly explain economic growth of these countries, and the structural problem and low efficiency of government educational expenditure are the main reasons.
The analysis here would complement the research on the source of economic growth and economic disparity of ASEAN countries in the perspective of public investment.
引文
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[3]同注释2,p.165.
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[1]仅Micheal Sarel(1997),Juses Felipe(1995)等少数文献对东盟国家经济增长原因进行了较为系统的研究。
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[2]世界银行《世界发展报告1994》将新加坡列为高收入国家,并在脚注中说明新加坡政府仍将其视为发展中国家,此后的世界发展报告中,都将其列为非OECD的其他高收入国家。1995年1月,OECD决定不再将新加坡归为发展中国家,而是将其与文莱、巴哈马群岛、科威特、卡塔尔和阿联酋从新归类为“更加发达的发展中国家”(more advanced developing countries)(Gavin Peebles and Peter Wilson,2003)。IMF(1997,p.4)将新加坡、以色列、香港、台湾和韩国归入“传统工业化国家”。使用Summers和Heson(1991)的数据以1985年美元计算,新加坡1990年的劳动产出率为法国的76%,德国的77%,日本的99%,英国的88%和美国的62%。
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[1]Gavin Peeble,and Peter Wilson.Economic Growth and Development in Singapore:Past and Future [M].UK:Edward Elgar Publishing Limited,2002,p.52.
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[1]2000年新加坡制造业增加值中机器和运输设备所占比重达到61.5%,2001年电子产品出口受到世界经济放缓的严重冲击而急剧下降,从而导致新加坡经济滑坡。在此背景下,新加坡政府提出在继续推进原有产业升级的同时,将生物医药产业发展成为其第四大产业部门的计划(其他三大产业部门分别为电子产业、工程产业和化工产业)。因此,2002年,该子部门产值在制造业产值中有所下降,而化学制品产值则大幅提高到了占总制造业22%的比重。
[2]但是,Rajih Rasiah(2003)认为马来西亚仅有外国企业才具有创新能力,本国企业由于缺少技术能力而只能从事OEM生产活动。
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[2]从《1988年世界发展报告》显示,1986年,低收入国家财政收入占GDP比重平均为15.4%、中低收入国家为21.4%、中等收入国家为24%、中高收入国家为25%和工业化国家的34%(The World Bank.World Development Report 1988[R],Oxford University Press,table 24,1988)。
[1]数据来源于Bank Indonesia,Financial Statistics,各年数据,转引自Anwar Nasaution,Fiscal System and Practice in Indonesia(A),In Fiscal Systems and Practices in ASEAN(C),edited by Mukul G.Asher,Institute of Southeast Asian Studies,Singapore,1989.
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[3]同注释2,p.165.
[1]据《1988年世界发展报告》资料显示,1971年,发展中国家政府支出占GNP的比重平均为18.7%,1985年,该比率上升到了26.5%。其中,低收入国家为20.8%,中等收入国家为27.5%(世界银行。1988年世界发展报告[R].中国财政经济出版社,第46页)。
[1]仅Micheal Sarel(1997),Juses Felipe(1995)等少数文献对东盟国家经济增长原因进行了较为系统的研究。
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[2]世界银行《世界发展报告1994》将新加坡列为高收入国家,并在脚注中说明新加坡政府仍将其视为发展中国家,此后的世界发展报告中,都将其列为非OECD的其他高收入国家。1995年1月,OECD决定不再将新加坡归为发展中国家,而是将其与文莱、巴哈马群岛、科威特、卡塔尔和阿联酋从新归类为“更加发达的发展中国家”(more advanced developing countries)(Gavin Peebles and Peter Wilson,2003)。IMF(1997,p.4)将新加坡、以色列、香港、台湾和韩国归入“传统工业化国家”。使用Summers和Heson(1991)的数据以1985年美元计算,新加坡1990年的劳动产出率为法国的76%,德国的77%,日本的99%,英国的88%和美国的62%。
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[4]资料来源于OECD,Basic Science and Technology Statistics。2000年,美国联邦政府的研发投资占全国研发经费总额的27.1%、日本政府为21.7%、德国为32%、英国为28.9%、法国为38.7%、韩国为24.9%。
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[1]Gavin Peeble,and Peter Wilson.Economic Growth and Development in Singapore:Past and Future [M].UK:Edward Elgar Publishing Limited,2002,p.52.
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[1]2000年新加坡制造业增加值中机器和运输设备所占比重达到61.5%,2001年电子产品出口受到世界经济放缓的严重冲击而急剧下降,从而导致新加坡经济滑坡。在此背景下,新加坡政府提出在继续推进原有产业升级的同时,将生物医药产业发展成为其第四大产业部门的计划(其他三大产业部门分别为电子产业、工程产业和化工产业)。因此,2002年,该子部门产值在制造业产值中有所下降,而化学制品产值则大幅提高到了占总制造业22%的比重。
[2]但是,Rajih Rasiah(2003)认为马来西亚仅有外国企业才具有创新能力,本国企业由于缺少技术能力而只能从事OEM生产活动。
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[3]目前,由瑞士国际管理发展学院(IMD)每年出版的《世界竞争力年鉴》涵盖61个国家和地区。
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[2]从《1988年世界发展报告》显示,1986年,低收入国家财政收入占GDP比重平均为15.4%、中低收入国家为21.4%、中等收入国家为24%、中高收入国家为25%和工业化国家的34%(The World Bank.World Development Report 1988[R],Oxford University Press,table 24,1988)。
[1]数据来源于Bank Indonesia,Financial Statistics,各年数据,转引自Anwar Nasaution,Fiscal System and Practice in Indonesia(A),In Fiscal Systems and Practices in ASEAN(C),edited by Mukul G.Asher,Institute of Southeast Asian Studies,Singapore,1989.
[1]Mukul G.Asher.Fiscal System and Practices in Maylaysia[A].in Mukul G.Asher ed.Fiscal Systems and Practices in ASEAN[C].Singapore:Institute of Southeast Asian Studies,1989,p.86.
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[3]作者为印尼中央银行实体和政府金融统计部门研究员(Real Sector and Government Finance Statisitics Division,Bank of Indonesia),该文提交到欧文·费雪中央银行统计委员会会议(Irving Fisher Committee On Central Bank Statistics,2004年9月9-10日,巴塞尔),并发表于IFC Bulletin,No.20.April 2005,具有一定的权威性。
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[2]这13个研究所和研究中心包括生物处理技术中心(Bioprocessing Technology Centre)、遥控成像,感应和处理中心(Centre for Remote Imaging,,Sensing and Processing)、信号处理中心(Centre for Signal Processing)、无线通讯中心(Centre for Wireless Communications)、数据存储所(Data Storage Institute);环境技术所(Environmental Technology Institute)、材料研究和工程所(Institute of Materials Research and Engineering)、微电子所(Institute of Microelectronics)、高级计算研究所(Institute of High Performance Computing)以及Kent Ridge试验室(Kent Ridge Labs)。
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