土地利用规划城乡建设用地调整辅助决策模型研究
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摘要
新一轮土地利用总体规划实施以来,经济社会在规划的引导下,取得良好成效,但也应清醒地认识到,在规划实施过程中还存在不少问题,尤其是城乡建设用地的配置,宏观环境、重大政策的变化值得关注。在土地利用总体规划指标分解的过程中,地方政府作为一个追求自身利益最大化的经济人,上下级政府之间以及平行政府之间都存在一种非合作博弈。现有的“自上而下,层层分解”的指标分配模式,导致地方政府往往片面的追求最多的城乡建设用地指标,而不顾经济发展的实际需要,并且在整个过程中,缺少前期的配置效率评价、中期的利用效率考核和后期的规划调整机制,影响了城乡建设用地空间配置的效果。客观上亟需找出城乡建设用地空间配置的分析方法和调整方法,为土地利用规划修改中的城乡建设用地调整提供理论基础和政策依据。
研究针对当前城乡建设用地调整中存在的问题,以新一轮土地利用总体规划成果为基础,以城乡建设用地动态空间分析为手段,以提供城乡建设用地规模及布局调整决策为目标,在地理信息系统技术的支持下,构建理论充实、操作方便、具有一定通用性和可扩充性的土地利用规划城乡建设用地调整辅助决策模型,提供城乡建设用地调整的技术支持和决策支持,科学、合理地调整城乡建设用地,实现城乡建设用地数量上“有节”、空间上“有控”的健康发展。
论文的主要研究内容如下：
(1)从空间布局和效率配置多个角度综合评价区域城乡建设用地现状。研究一方面通过全局和局部的空间自相关分析,得出城乡建设用地具有显著的空间关联性和不稳定性；并以地理空间加权回归模型的残差空间分布为基础,通过模型残差表达现状值与模型模拟值之间的差别,分析城乡建设用地布局的发展热点和冷点区域,从空间的角度进行评价为区域城乡建设用地现状布局。另一方面以城乡建设用地的生产要素特性为前提,以扩展生产函数模型为基础,依据边际生产率均衡原则,探索城乡建设用地的空间配置的有效性,对城乡建设用地的规划实施现状做出综合的评价。研究认为,桐庐县经济的发展过多的依赖城乡建设用地资源的投入,不尽合理的城乡配置,使得区域经济的增长、用地布局的优化未能达到最理想的状态,有必要进行城乡建设用地的调整。
(2)构建土地利用规划城乡建设用地调整辅助决策模型。研究探索城乡建设用地在规模上合理、高效的配置模式,根据帕累托效率原理,在其有限供给的条件下重新配置区域城乡建设用地,通过计算区域内各个经济单元城乡建设用地规划配额的偏差,确定区域内城乡建设用地指标的流转规模和流转方向,从而构建城乡建设用地调整辅助决策模型。建立图斑调整的决策指标体系,由城乡建设质量、城乡建设成本、城乡建设效益三个决策因素十四个决策指标构成。对于综合定序的决策指标体系,分别采用逼近于理想点的排序模型、模糊优选模型和属性层次模型三种排序模型对图斑进行组合决策,采用基于层次分析法和嫡权系数法从主、客观两个方面综合确定每种排序模型的指标权重。以城乡建设用地规模调整方案为约束,具体采用0-1整数规划模型确定每块入选图斑,并在入选图斑累加面积与调整目标不完全吻合的情况下,并通过图斑定积分割的方法,进行图斑的分割处理,运用逐步逼近法的原理,实现图斑的精确分割。
(3)以浙江省桐庐县为研究区,应用城乡建设用地调整辅助决策模型,为桐庐县城乡建设用地调整提供辅助决策建议。研究利用桐庐县各乡(镇、街道)二三产业增加值及城乡建设用地配置的面板数据进行确定性变系数模型的回归计算,得到各自的城乡建设用地边际产出；并根据帕累托效率原理,设计桐庐县城乡建设用地规模调整方案。在此方案约束下,先后通过组合决策、入选决策、图斑定积分割等方法,为城乡建设用地调整的精确定位提供辅助决策。最后,对调整后的城乡建设用地规模和布局方案进行空间格局分析和配置效率分析,与原规划方案相比,桐庐县城乡建设用地的空间配置更为均衡,空间布局更为合理。
The implementation of General Land Use Planning (2006-2020) lays a solid foundation for advancing the economy of our country and construction of harmonious society. The macroeconomic environment and great policy, especially spatial allocative efficiency of rural-urban construction land, deserves attention greatly in the process of implementation. Local government, as an economic man, pursuit one's own maximum interests under an index allocation model, which is Top-Down and Layer-Decomposition. It is a non-cooperative game between superior-subordinate government or parallel government, which is in order to declare the most rural-urban construction land index with the regardless of the actual needs of economic development. It will affect spatial allocative efficiency of rural-urban construction land, because the lack of pre-evaluation of allocative efficiency, mid-assessment of utilization efficiency and post-mechanism of planning adjustment. The method of analysis and adjustment of spatial allocative efficiency is desiderated to provide theoretical and policy basis for adjustment of rural-urban construction land for general land use planning revision objectively.
An adjustment method of rural-urban construction land is studied in order to provide decision support of quantity and distribution adjustment, according to the problem of planning revision, based of new general land use planning achievements, as the means of dynamic spatial analysis, and supported by Geographic Information System. This research will support the adjustment of rural-urban construction land both in technology and decision, and guarantee the healthy development of rural-urban construction land with reasonable quantity and rational distribution.
The main research content and the conclusion of the dissertation are as follows:
(1) On the one hand, spatial correlation analysis of regional rural-urban construction land pattern is performed by adopting related theories and methods such as global spatial autocorrelation, local spatial autocorrelation. The result indicates that pattern of rural-urban construction land has apparent space correlation and spatial non-stationary. At the same time, the spatial characteristic in micro level of rural-urban construction land is analyzed based on the spatial residual distribution of geographically weighted regression model. Residual of the model is used to describe the difference between actuality value and simulation value. Original residual of the model is standardized, which describes the hot spots and cold spots for development of rural-urban construction land. In terms of logic, the loss of spatial allocative efficiency is evaluated and the planning implementation of rural-urban construction land is assessmented on the premise of production factor characteristic of rural-urban construction land, based on extended production function model, on the principle of marginal equilibrium production. It is considered that the development of regional economy is dependent excessively on the investment of rural-urban construction land. The spatial allocation of rural-urban construction land with non-equilibrium state of distribution and efficiency is needed to be adjusted because of not quite reasonable allocation.
(2) The Assistant Decision-making Model for Rural-Urban Construction Land Amendation of Land Use Planning will be established. The spatial allocation model of rural-urban construction land is established under the framework of Pareto Optimum for the quantitative expression of marginal economic benefits of rural-urban construction land based on equality of marginal economic benefits in order to optimization of regional economic benefits. The measure methods are proposed for the index and the loss of spatial allocative efficiency after connotation interpretation. The quota deviation of rural-urban construction land is calculated on the theoretical premise of get back efficiency sharing mechanism, which will be used to calculate the scale and direction of adjustment. The decision index system of ranking is composed of14indicators, involved in construction quality, cost and efficiency of rural-urban construction land. Then based on the character of ranking, ranking models, such as similarity to ideal point model, fuzzy optimization model and attribute hierarchy model, are used to make combinatorial decision of ranking. Index weight of three models are calculated by method of both hierarchy analysis and entropy weights. According to the ranking results, every map plot whether be selected into new rural-urban construction land is determined by0-1integer programming model. Partitioning polygon in determined area ensure the accurate location of map plot by a step-by-step approximating method, which contents to the strict control demand of land use planning.
(3) Tonglu County of Zhejiang Province is selected as study area. The decision-making model system for amendation of rural-urban construction land in Tonglu County is established to make assistant decision for the palnning amendation of rural-urban construction land in Tonglu County. Panel data, including the added value of secondary industry and tertiary industry and quantity of rural-urban construction land of every township, is used to regression analysis with SUR model for marginal production of rural-urban construction land. Quantity adjustment scheme of rural-urban construction land use is designed based on the principle of Pareto Optimum. According to this scheme, assistant decision-making for distribution amendation of rural-urban construction land use is provided by comprehensive ranking, selecting decision-making and polygon partitioning. At last, the spatial differences in micro level and spatial allocative efficiency of rural-urban construction land of new amendation scheme is evaluated. Compared with present situation, the spatial allocation of rural-urban construction land use is more equilibrium and the spatial distribution of rural-urban construction land use is more reasonable.
研究针对当前城乡建设用地调整中存在的问题,以新一轮土地利用总体规划成果为基础,以城乡建设用地动态空间分析为手段,以提供城乡建设用地规模及布局调整决策为目标,在地理信息系统技术的支持下,构建理论充实、操作方便、具有一定通用性和可扩充性的土地利用规划城乡建设用地调整辅助决策模型,提供城乡建设用地调整的技术支持和决策支持,科学、合理地调整城乡建设用地,实现城乡建设用地数量上“有节”、空间上“有控”的健康发展。
论文的主要研究内容如下：
(1)从空间布局和效率配置多个角度综合评价区域城乡建设用地现状。研究一方面通过全局和局部的空间自相关分析,得出城乡建设用地具有显著的空间关联性和不稳定性；并以地理空间加权回归模型的残差空间分布为基础,通过模型残差表达现状值与模型模拟值之间的差别,分析城乡建设用地布局的发展热点和冷点区域,从空间的角度进行评价为区域城乡建设用地现状布局。另一方面以城乡建设用地的生产要素特性为前提,以扩展生产函数模型为基础,依据边际生产率均衡原则,探索城乡建设用地的空间配置的有效性,对城乡建设用地的规划实施现状做出综合的评价。研究认为,桐庐县经济的发展过多的依赖城乡建设用地资源的投入,不尽合理的城乡配置,使得区域经济的增长、用地布局的优化未能达到最理想的状态,有必要进行城乡建设用地的调整。
(2)构建土地利用规划城乡建设用地调整辅助决策模型。研究探索城乡建设用地在规模上合理、高效的配置模式,根据帕累托效率原理,在其有限供给的条件下重新配置区域城乡建设用地,通过计算区域内各个经济单元城乡建设用地规划配额的偏差,确定区域内城乡建设用地指标的流转规模和流转方向,从而构建城乡建设用地调整辅助决策模型。建立图斑调整的决策指标体系,由城乡建设质量、城乡建设成本、城乡建设效益三个决策因素十四个决策指标构成。对于综合定序的决策指标体系,分别采用逼近于理想点的排序模型、模糊优选模型和属性层次模型三种排序模型对图斑进行组合决策,采用基于层次分析法和嫡权系数法从主、客观两个方面综合确定每种排序模型的指标权重。以城乡建设用地规模调整方案为约束,具体采用0-1整数规划模型确定每块入选图斑,并在入选图斑累加面积与调整目标不完全吻合的情况下,并通过图斑定积分割的方法,进行图斑的分割处理,运用逐步逼近法的原理,实现图斑的精确分割。
(3)以浙江省桐庐县为研究区,应用城乡建设用地调整辅助决策模型,为桐庐县城乡建设用地调整提供辅助决策建议。研究利用桐庐县各乡(镇、街道)二三产业增加值及城乡建设用地配置的面板数据进行确定性变系数模型的回归计算,得到各自的城乡建设用地边际产出；并根据帕累托效率原理,设计桐庐县城乡建设用地规模调整方案。在此方案约束下,先后通过组合决策、入选决策、图斑定积分割等方法,为城乡建设用地调整的精确定位提供辅助决策。最后,对调整后的城乡建设用地规模和布局方案进行空间格局分析和配置效率分析,与原规划方案相比,桐庐县城乡建设用地的空间配置更为均衡,空间布局更为合理。
The implementation of General Land Use Planning (2006-2020) lays a solid foundation for advancing the economy of our country and construction of harmonious society. The macroeconomic environment and great policy, especially spatial allocative efficiency of rural-urban construction land, deserves attention greatly in the process of implementation. Local government, as an economic man, pursuit one's own maximum interests under an index allocation model, which is Top-Down and Layer-Decomposition. It is a non-cooperative game between superior-subordinate government or parallel government, which is in order to declare the most rural-urban construction land index with the regardless of the actual needs of economic development. It will affect spatial allocative efficiency of rural-urban construction land, because the lack of pre-evaluation of allocative efficiency, mid-assessment of utilization efficiency and post-mechanism of planning adjustment. The method of analysis and adjustment of spatial allocative efficiency is desiderated to provide theoretical and policy basis for adjustment of rural-urban construction land for general land use planning revision objectively.
An adjustment method of rural-urban construction land is studied in order to provide decision support of quantity and distribution adjustment, according to the problem of planning revision, based of new general land use planning achievements, as the means of dynamic spatial analysis, and supported by Geographic Information System. This research will support the adjustment of rural-urban construction land both in technology and decision, and guarantee the healthy development of rural-urban construction land with reasonable quantity and rational distribution.
The main research content and the conclusion of the dissertation are as follows:
(1) On the one hand, spatial correlation analysis of regional rural-urban construction land pattern is performed by adopting related theories and methods such as global spatial autocorrelation, local spatial autocorrelation. The result indicates that pattern of rural-urban construction land has apparent space correlation and spatial non-stationary. At the same time, the spatial characteristic in micro level of rural-urban construction land is analyzed based on the spatial residual distribution of geographically weighted regression model. Residual of the model is used to describe the difference between actuality value and simulation value. Original residual of the model is standardized, which describes the hot spots and cold spots for development of rural-urban construction land. In terms of logic, the loss of spatial allocative efficiency is evaluated and the planning implementation of rural-urban construction land is assessmented on the premise of production factor characteristic of rural-urban construction land, based on extended production function model, on the principle of marginal equilibrium production. It is considered that the development of regional economy is dependent excessively on the investment of rural-urban construction land. The spatial allocation of rural-urban construction land with non-equilibrium state of distribution and efficiency is needed to be adjusted because of not quite reasonable allocation.
(2) The Assistant Decision-making Model for Rural-Urban Construction Land Amendation of Land Use Planning will be established. The spatial allocation model of rural-urban construction land is established under the framework of Pareto Optimum for the quantitative expression of marginal economic benefits of rural-urban construction land based on equality of marginal economic benefits in order to optimization of regional economic benefits. The measure methods are proposed for the index and the loss of spatial allocative efficiency after connotation interpretation. The quota deviation of rural-urban construction land is calculated on the theoretical premise of get back efficiency sharing mechanism, which will be used to calculate the scale and direction of adjustment. The decision index system of ranking is composed of14indicators, involved in construction quality, cost and efficiency of rural-urban construction land. Then based on the character of ranking, ranking models, such as similarity to ideal point model, fuzzy optimization model and attribute hierarchy model, are used to make combinatorial decision of ranking. Index weight of three models are calculated by method of both hierarchy analysis and entropy weights. According to the ranking results, every map plot whether be selected into new rural-urban construction land is determined by0-1integer programming model. Partitioning polygon in determined area ensure the accurate location of map plot by a step-by-step approximating method, which contents to the strict control demand of land use planning.
(3) Tonglu County of Zhejiang Province is selected as study area. The decision-making model system for amendation of rural-urban construction land in Tonglu County is established to make assistant decision for the palnning amendation of rural-urban construction land in Tonglu County. Panel data, including the added value of secondary industry and tertiary industry and quantity of rural-urban construction land of every township, is used to regression analysis with SUR model for marginal production of rural-urban construction land. Quantity adjustment scheme of rural-urban construction land use is designed based on the principle of Pareto Optimum. According to this scheme, assistant decision-making for distribution amendation of rural-urban construction land use is provided by comprehensive ranking, selecting decision-making and polygon partitioning. At last, the spatial differences in micro level and spatial allocative efficiency of rural-urban construction land of new amendation scheme is evaluated. Compared with present situation, the spatial allocation of rural-urban construction land use is more equilibrium and the spatial distribution of rural-urban construction land use is more reasonable.
引文
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