铁路客运网络演化机制研究
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摘要
辨识铁路客运网络的时空复杂性,理解其形成及演化的内在机理和运行机制,能为合理确定路网规模与建设时序、科学规划技术标准与能力分布打下理论基础,提供决策依据,具有重要的研究价值。
     比较研究了铁路客运网络的复杂性,明确了其叠加性和延展性较弱、与经济社会互馈作用强、要素构成复杂且与地理空间全关联的特性及其高协同性与强相关性。探讨了铁路客运网络拓扑结构复杂、网络结构与流量关联变化以及网络增长动态均衡的生成规律。
     定性分析了铁路客运网络的节点数目有序变化、连边关系偏好择优、层次结构功能完善和整体发展规律等时空特征及形成原理。从自然地理因素、历史和人文因素、政策和体制因素、城市化进程因素、技术因素、地区规模因素和环境因素等方面研究了铁路客运网络演化驱动因素的作用原理。从网络中节点和连边的形成、网络层级体系的形成以及基本网络结构的形成等三个层面,研究了铁路客运网络的一般演化过程。
     在此基础上剥离铁路客运需求网络,研究了经济区域化组团发展与城市化进程、空间地理条件、铁路运输组织方式以及铁路建设方式和预测方法对其形成和分布的影响。设计了基于谱分析的表达方式、基于模糊聚类的凝聚算法以及基于模块性函数的判定标准的铁路客运需求网络的群落发现算法和层级发现算法,构建基于预测数据的铁路客运需求网络模型。
     从网络演化的规模、机制设计、动态性以及外部条件的复杂性等方面,探讨了铁路线路网络演化机制生成的影响因素和方向性。设计了节点的增长、合并或拆分以及退出机制,边的首连、重连和退出机制,以及点权和边权的演化规则,构建了与需求网络互馈、可调参数的铁路客运线路网络演化模型,并给出了算法步骤。
     进一步深入分析了铁路客运网络的局域世界——区域城际铁路客运网络的需求特点和功能层次要求,研究了城镇群空间组织的层次和驱动力。探讨了单核裂变式、多核共生式和网络开放式等三种城镇群空间布局的典型模式及其在集聚程度、空间分布、布局态势和成长状态等方面的差异化特点。构建了区域城际铁路客运网络的供需协同演化模型,并针对前述三种典型的城镇群空间布局形式,分别按规划导向设计了相应的演化规则和算法。
     铁路客运网络演化机制及相关参数的精确化设计,城市节点网络的纳入以及以现有成果为基础的复杂网络性质统计指标及其关系的理论研究,是进一步的研究方向。
The recognition of the time-space complexity and the understanding of the evolution mechanism are very important in research on railway passenger transportation networks.
     By employing the theories and methods of complex networks, the mechanism of railway passenger transportation networks is analyzed, which includes;
     In research on the complexity of railway passenger transportation networks, by comparison between transportation network and some virtual ones, between different transportation modes, between freight and passenger transportation, the characteristics of railway passenger transportation networks are discovered, including dependence on geographic conditions, close correlation and interoperability among its elements, interaction with social and economic systems.
     In research on the evolution principles of railway passenger transportation networks, the basic characteristics under the propulsion are that the number of points is increasing gradually, the connection of points and the hierarchies of the network are clear and optimized, following some principles. The basic evolution process includes three steps, which are the growth of points and edges, the hierarchy, and the basic network.
     In research on the structure of railway passenger demand networks, some factors impose the influence on passenger demand, which includes the local economics, the urbanization, the geography, the operating rules and the construction patterns. Based on the spectral bisection method, the fuzzy clustering agglomerative method and modality fiction, the method to find the communities in demand network is conceived.
     In research on the evolution mechanism of railway passenger lines network, some factors and their influences are discussed, such as the size, the design of mechanism, the dynamics and the surroundings. The mechanism of the growing, combining, splitting and quit of points and edges, the change rules of weights are designed to construct a model of railway passenger lines network with regulable variables. The steps of the method are described.
     In research on the local evolution of railway passenger networks, the local world of railway passenger networks is analyzed, that is, the regional economics and its railway system. Three types of urban area with different spatial planning require different kinds of railway planning and growing rules. The correlative evolution model of regional railway passenger network is constructed and with different design ideas to get three kinds of mechanism and methods.
     The trend in research of this field includes the better design of evolution mechanism, and the theoretical research of the correlation of statistics such as clustering coefficient.
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