基于本地劳动力就业的资源型地区发展战略研究
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摘要
作为我国典型的有色金属基地和独特的民族地区,西藏的和谐、稳定与发展关系着国家安全、社会稳定和民族团结,关系着国家的长治久安及地缘政治的协调稳定,关系着我国在南亚乃至整个世界的位置；从经济角度看,作为有色金属、地热、太阳能、传统能源以及白色盐业基地,西藏自治区在国家发展过程中正扮演着越来越重要的角色。近年来,为了进一步促进西藏自治区资源的有效利用,切实提高区域农牧民收入,中央连续推行以援助型项目为核心的扶持战略,建成了江达县玉龙铜矿、曲松铬矿、马悠木金矿以及甲玛铜多金属矿等矿产资源开采基地,形成了以有色金属开采为主导产业的矿业经济,在西藏自治区“十二五”发展规划中,矿业基地的建成与投产成为自治区未来经济增长的亮点。
随着中央扶持及资源开采力度的加大,区外非藏族劳动力由于工资的吸引而不断进入西藏,在部分城市,外来劳动者几乎成为了劳动力市场的主力军。外来高素质、具备专业技能的劳动力为区域经济腾飞贡献了巨大力量,但另一方面由于外来劳动力具备较高的专业技能及文化素质,在与本地劳动者竞争岗位时具有很大的优势,使本已狭窄的就业空间大部分为外来非藏族劳动力填满,国际上甚至出现了资源掠夺论。
鉴于此,本研究以甲玛铜多金属矿区为研究对象,首先探讨资源型地区劳动力市场特征及分异,重点分析本地劳动力的供给状况、劳动力素质及就业意愿；其次根据人口普查数据和调查问卷数据,分析矿产资源开采过程中非藏族移民数量、居住特征、社会网络以及促使区外非藏族劳动力转移机理;在此基础上,通过区域经济系统建模评估资源型地区外来非藏族劳动力就业对本地经济发展的影响；最后评估政府援助型发展战略对本地劳动力的吸纳度,基于研究区资源禀赋优势,探讨民族地区推行就业创造战略对经济增长绩效、收入分配及经济波动性等方面的改善,提出促进本地劳动力就业的区域发展战略。
论文共分六章,第一章为绪论,重点分析选题背景、意义、国内外研究现状、文章主要研究方法、研究内容以及技术路线等；第二章为理论基础,探讨资源型地区发展的主要理论,包括资源诅咒理论、劳动力转移理论、产业结构演化理论等；第三章概述西藏地区矿产资源开发利用与经济社会发展现状,分析区域人口、产业结构、劳动力就业等,探讨区域资源开发利用与经济发展之间的关系,重点关注西藏地区矿产资源开发利用存在的问题；第四章为甲玛铜多金属区劳动力转移与区域发展研究,以甲玛矿区为案例,探讨资源型地区开采中外来劳动力的进入以及就业,同时分析本地劳动力的机械增长及就业途径,研究发现,随着资源型地区开发力度的不断增大,外来非藏族劳动力转移明显,同时区域产业结构也在不断变化,第三产业产值和就业结构都在提升,但与外来劳动力相比,本地劳动力由于技术水平及文化素质的影响,难以获得较好的就业途径,现有的发展模式提供的就业岗位本地劳动力难以胜任,资源开采力度的加大加剧了区域自然灾害的风险,而区域居民收入的提高与个人价值实现之间存在矛盾,资源富集区中央援助型发展战略容易导致“资源诅咒”；第五章为通过本地劳动力就业的区域发展模式选择,在第四章分析的基础上,从劳动力就业弹性、产业发展结构偏离度指数等指标出发,探讨中央援助型发展战略在吸纳本地劳动力就业方面的局限性以及现有资源开采战略的风险,提出以促进本地劳动力就业为核心的发展模式,即推行以劳动密集型产业为基础的比较优势战略,立足区域文化、社会资源,在增加劳动力就业基础上提高农牧民收入；第六章为结论与展望,归纳总结本研究的主要研究结论和未来研究方向。
通过上述研究分析,本研究的主要结论有：
(1)由于独特的人口政策及生育文化,甲玛铜多金属区人口增长速率快,劳动力机械增长明显；随着以大型国有企业——中金黄金集团在这一区域资源开采力度的加大,农村劳动力非农转移明显,甲玛铜多金属矿区及其周边地区正处于“人口红利期”。
(2)中央援助型发展项目的实施创造了较多的非农就业机会,但由于对劳动力文化素质及专业技能要求较高,现行发展战略对本地劳动力吸纳度有限,背离本地丰富的劳动力供给市场。
(3)基于区域资源禀赋及劳动力市场特征,在基础设施建设基本完成的前提下实现资本、技术密集型产业向劳动密集型产业转型,推行就业创造战略,能有改善经济增长绩效、缓解收入分配矛盾、降低经济波动性。
(4)以新型城镇化战略为基础的城镇体系建设能有效集聚农村分散的剩余劳动力,促进分工与劳动力就业,政府实施创新型金融制度,协助区域农牧民微小企业发展,能够有效促进区域劳动力就业。
(5)西藏资源型地区资源开采过程中必须兼顾经济、社会与环境的多重效益,尤其注重地质灾害的建成与治理,注重生态保护与重建,设立矿区保育、地质灾害防控、尾矿重建等专项,既提高了本地劳动力的就业比重又能有效改善矿区环境,建成宜居、持续的多层次、全方位工矿业发展区。
研究成果有望在“资源型地区制度安排、经济增长、收入分配”等方面有所突破,对提高资源型地区自生能力、实现区域协调发展具有重要意义,能有效驳斥“外来汉族劳动力威胁论”。
Building a modern, harmonious,and creative high-income society in Minority areas related to national security. Party Central Committee pays great attention to the development of minority areas and implements long-term aid-based development strategy. But the aid-based projects from the government are majorly fund-intensive and technology-intensive. Local labor force has a low participation due to the limitations of the cultural qualities and professional skills then cause an influx of external Han alien labor force. Thus other countries in the international point out the flow of external Han alien labor posing a threat to minorities.
As we study the "Jiama Copper Polymetallic Mine (JCPM)" economic area in Tibet, first of all, we should evaluate the aid-based development strategy's capacity of absorbing the local labor force, and discuss the relationship between external Han alien labor force and local economy and the influence to local labor force's employment. Next we predict the local labor supply, employment behavior and relative factors, discuss the disproportion of existing development strategy and local labor market. Last but not the least, based on Tibet's resources endowment advantage, we explore the improvement of economy growth, income distribution and economic volatility and others by creating employment strategies to put forward the regional development pattern of promoting employment.
We set up a regional econometric model of Jia Ma Copper Mmulti-metal Mmine labour market, in which both labour demand and supply are endogenously determined and thus unemployment is determined by their interaction. Therefore, we model labour demand in the industrial sector and in private services, while labour supply is split into two components which define respectively the participation rate and self employment. The model simulations evaluate the response of the regional labour market, in comparison with the national one, to exogenous shocks depending on shocks in either demand or supply. The intersectoral difference highlights the fact that industry, although declining in terms of employment, still maintains a crucial role in generating employment multiplier effects, which in turn may reduce unemployment. This evidence has important policy implications, as it suggests that industrial policy may play a crucial role in stimulating labour demand and supply, and through this route the whole regional growth process.On the other hand, this paper develops an econometric model for studying the structure of regional labor markets. We estimate the model for three representative Mo-zhu-gong ka. The simulation results of these heterogeneous states reveal substantial structural differences in the short as well as the long-run. These differences impact on labor demand and labor supply and, hence, call for investigating demand and supply of labor instead of merely the unemployment rate. The revealed commonalities and differences may help regional as well as national policy makers to formulate policies tailored at the specific needs of regional labor markets.The thesis is divided into six chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, focusing on analysis of the background, significance, research status, articles main research methods, research, and technology roadmap intends to solve the key problems. The second chapter is the theoretical basis of resource-based regional development theory, including the resource curse theory, the the labor transfer theory, the industrial structure evolution theory. The third chapter summarizes regional economic development status, focusing on the analysis of the regional population, industrial structure, labor and employment, and to explore the relationship between the regional resource extraction and economic development, and focus on the Jiama Copper Polymetallic Mine development brought wealth to the area andpotential risks that may arise. The forth chapter focuses on Jiama Copper Polymetallic Zone labor transfer and regional development, Jiama Mine as a case, investigates the entry and employment of foreign labor in the exploitation of the resource-based areas, mechanical analysis of the local labor force growth and employment pathways, the study foundwith increasing resource-based regional development efforts, the transfer of foreign non-Tibetan labor significantly, while the regional industrial structure is also changing, the output value of the tertiary industry and the structure of employment in the upgrade, but compared with the foreign labor, local labor due totechnical level and cultural qualities of the impact is difficult to obtain better employment pathways, the existing model of development to provide jobs in the local labor could not do, increasing the degree of resource extraction exacerbated regional natural disaster risk, while area residents income risescontradictions between personal values to achieve the development strategy of the resource rich region of central assistance type easily lead to the "resource curse".In Chapter5, on the basis of the analysis, the author selected for regional development model based on the local labor force, from the flexibility of the labor force, the structure of industrial development degree of deviation index were starting to explore the development of central assistance strategy to absorb the local labor forcelimitations of existing resources exploitation strategy to disaster risk, proposed as the core of the development model to promote the employment of local labor, that is, the implementation of the strategy of comparative advantage based on labor-intensive industries, based on regional culture, social resources, increase laborincrease the income of peasants and herdsmen; employment on the basis of Chapter6is the conclusion and outlook, summarized in the summary of the study's main conclusions and future research directions.
The main conclusions are:
(1) Due to the unique population policy and childbearing culture,the rate of population growth is fast and the machinery growth of working population is obviously in Jiama Copper Poly metal District; With the increase of mining intensity of China National Gold Group Corporation which is a large state-owned enterprises in this area, we can see nonfarm metastasis in rural labor turn to significantly, Jiama Copper-Polymetallic Mine and its surrounding area is in a "demographic dividend period".
(2) The implementation of the development projects of the central government's assistance created a number of non-farm employment opportunities, but it departure from the local labor supply market because of the high-requirement of cultural qualities and professional skills as well as the limited absorb degree of local workforce considering current development strategy.
(3) Based on regional resource endowments and labor market characteristics, realizing the transition of capital and technology-intensive industries to labor-intensive industries and implementing the strategy of job creation under the premise of the construction of infrastructure basically completed can effectively improve the performance of economic growth, ease the contradictions of income distribution and reduce the economic volatility.
(4) Urban system construction which based on new urbanization strategy can concentrate dispersed surplus labor in rural effectively, promote the division and employment of the labor force. The government adopting innovative financial system and assisting the development of regional agriculture herdsman's micro and small enterprises can promote regional employment effectually.
(5) Multiple benefits of economic, social and environmental must be considered in resource exploitation in resource-based regions of Tibet, with particular emphasis on the formation and governance of the geological disasters, focus on ecological protection and reconstruction, establish special projects such as mining conservation, the geologic hazard prevention, tailings reconstruction etc. It can improve the proportion of employment of local labor and ameliorate the mining environment effectively, finally turn to a both livable and sustained multi-level and comprehensive worker Mining Development Area.
The research results are expected to achieve a breakthrough in the national regional institutional arrangements, economic development, income distribution and other aspects, have important significance to improve the minority areas autogenetic ability to achieve a coordinated regional development and can effectively refute the "external Han alien labor threat theory".
随着中央扶持及资源开采力度的加大,区外非藏族劳动力由于工资的吸引而不断进入西藏,在部分城市,外来劳动者几乎成为了劳动力市场的主力军。外来高素质、具备专业技能的劳动力为区域经济腾飞贡献了巨大力量,但另一方面由于外来劳动力具备较高的专业技能及文化素质,在与本地劳动者竞争岗位时具有很大的优势,使本已狭窄的就业空间大部分为外来非藏族劳动力填满,国际上甚至出现了资源掠夺论。
鉴于此,本研究以甲玛铜多金属矿区为研究对象,首先探讨资源型地区劳动力市场特征及分异,重点分析本地劳动力的供给状况、劳动力素质及就业意愿；其次根据人口普查数据和调查问卷数据,分析矿产资源开采过程中非藏族移民数量、居住特征、社会网络以及促使区外非藏族劳动力转移机理;在此基础上,通过区域经济系统建模评估资源型地区外来非藏族劳动力就业对本地经济发展的影响；最后评估政府援助型发展战略对本地劳动力的吸纳度,基于研究区资源禀赋优势,探讨民族地区推行就业创造战略对经济增长绩效、收入分配及经济波动性等方面的改善,提出促进本地劳动力就业的区域发展战略。
论文共分六章,第一章为绪论,重点分析选题背景、意义、国内外研究现状、文章主要研究方法、研究内容以及技术路线等；第二章为理论基础,探讨资源型地区发展的主要理论,包括资源诅咒理论、劳动力转移理论、产业结构演化理论等；第三章概述西藏地区矿产资源开发利用与经济社会发展现状,分析区域人口、产业结构、劳动力就业等,探讨区域资源开发利用与经济发展之间的关系,重点关注西藏地区矿产资源开发利用存在的问题；第四章为甲玛铜多金属区劳动力转移与区域发展研究,以甲玛矿区为案例,探讨资源型地区开采中外来劳动力的进入以及就业,同时分析本地劳动力的机械增长及就业途径,研究发现,随着资源型地区开发力度的不断增大,外来非藏族劳动力转移明显,同时区域产业结构也在不断变化,第三产业产值和就业结构都在提升,但与外来劳动力相比,本地劳动力由于技术水平及文化素质的影响,难以获得较好的就业途径,现有的发展模式提供的就业岗位本地劳动力难以胜任,资源开采力度的加大加剧了区域自然灾害的风险,而区域居民收入的提高与个人价值实现之间存在矛盾,资源富集区中央援助型发展战略容易导致“资源诅咒”；第五章为通过本地劳动力就业的区域发展模式选择,在第四章分析的基础上,从劳动力就业弹性、产业发展结构偏离度指数等指标出发,探讨中央援助型发展战略在吸纳本地劳动力就业方面的局限性以及现有资源开采战略的风险,提出以促进本地劳动力就业为核心的发展模式,即推行以劳动密集型产业为基础的比较优势战略,立足区域文化、社会资源,在增加劳动力就业基础上提高农牧民收入；第六章为结论与展望,归纳总结本研究的主要研究结论和未来研究方向。
通过上述研究分析,本研究的主要结论有：
(1)由于独特的人口政策及生育文化,甲玛铜多金属区人口增长速率快,劳动力机械增长明显；随着以大型国有企业——中金黄金集团在这一区域资源开采力度的加大,农村劳动力非农转移明显,甲玛铜多金属矿区及其周边地区正处于“人口红利期”。
(2)中央援助型发展项目的实施创造了较多的非农就业机会,但由于对劳动力文化素质及专业技能要求较高,现行发展战略对本地劳动力吸纳度有限,背离本地丰富的劳动力供给市场。
(3)基于区域资源禀赋及劳动力市场特征,在基础设施建设基本完成的前提下实现资本、技术密集型产业向劳动密集型产业转型,推行就业创造战略,能有改善经济增长绩效、缓解收入分配矛盾、降低经济波动性。
(4)以新型城镇化战略为基础的城镇体系建设能有效集聚农村分散的剩余劳动力,促进分工与劳动力就业,政府实施创新型金融制度,协助区域农牧民微小企业发展,能够有效促进区域劳动力就业。
(5)西藏资源型地区资源开采过程中必须兼顾经济、社会与环境的多重效益,尤其注重地质灾害的建成与治理,注重生态保护与重建,设立矿区保育、地质灾害防控、尾矿重建等专项,既提高了本地劳动力的就业比重又能有效改善矿区环境,建成宜居、持续的多层次、全方位工矿业发展区。
研究成果有望在“资源型地区制度安排、经济增长、收入分配”等方面有所突破,对提高资源型地区自生能力、实现区域协调发展具有重要意义,能有效驳斥“外来汉族劳动力威胁论”。
Building a modern, harmonious,and creative high-income society in Minority areas related to national security. Party Central Committee pays great attention to the development of minority areas and implements long-term aid-based development strategy. But the aid-based projects from the government are majorly fund-intensive and technology-intensive. Local labor force has a low participation due to the limitations of the cultural qualities and professional skills then cause an influx of external Han alien labor force. Thus other countries in the international point out the flow of external Han alien labor posing a threat to minorities.
As we study the "Jiama Copper Polymetallic Mine (JCPM)" economic area in Tibet, first of all, we should evaluate the aid-based development strategy's capacity of absorbing the local labor force, and discuss the relationship between external Han alien labor force and local economy and the influence to local labor force's employment. Next we predict the local labor supply, employment behavior and relative factors, discuss the disproportion of existing development strategy and local labor market. Last but not the least, based on Tibet's resources endowment advantage, we explore the improvement of economy growth, income distribution and economic volatility and others by creating employment strategies to put forward the regional development pattern of promoting employment.
We set up a regional econometric model of Jia Ma Copper Mmulti-metal Mmine labour market, in which both labour demand and supply are endogenously determined and thus unemployment is determined by their interaction. Therefore, we model labour demand in the industrial sector and in private services, while labour supply is split into two components which define respectively the participation rate and self employment. The model simulations evaluate the response of the regional labour market, in comparison with the national one, to exogenous shocks depending on shocks in either demand or supply. The intersectoral difference highlights the fact that industry, although declining in terms of employment, still maintains a crucial role in generating employment multiplier effects, which in turn may reduce unemployment. This evidence has important policy implications, as it suggests that industrial policy may play a crucial role in stimulating labour demand and supply, and through this route the whole regional growth process.On the other hand, this paper develops an econometric model for studying the structure of regional labor markets. We estimate the model for three representative Mo-zhu-gong ka. The simulation results of these heterogeneous states reveal substantial structural differences in the short as well as the long-run. These differences impact on labor demand and labor supply and, hence, call for investigating demand and supply of labor instead of merely the unemployment rate. The revealed commonalities and differences may help regional as well as national policy makers to formulate policies tailored at the specific needs of regional labor markets.The thesis is divided into six chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, focusing on analysis of the background, significance, research status, articles main research methods, research, and technology roadmap intends to solve the key problems. The second chapter is the theoretical basis of resource-based regional development theory, including the resource curse theory, the the labor transfer theory, the industrial structure evolution theory. The third chapter summarizes regional economic development status, focusing on the analysis of the regional population, industrial structure, labor and employment, and to explore the relationship between the regional resource extraction and economic development, and focus on the Jiama Copper Polymetallic Mine development brought wealth to the area andpotential risks that may arise. The forth chapter focuses on Jiama Copper Polymetallic Zone labor transfer and regional development, Jiama Mine as a case, investigates the entry and employment of foreign labor in the exploitation of the resource-based areas, mechanical analysis of the local labor force growth and employment pathways, the study foundwith increasing resource-based regional development efforts, the transfer of foreign non-Tibetan labor significantly, while the regional industrial structure is also changing, the output value of the tertiary industry and the structure of employment in the upgrade, but compared with the foreign labor, local labor due totechnical level and cultural qualities of the impact is difficult to obtain better employment pathways, the existing model of development to provide jobs in the local labor could not do, increasing the degree of resource extraction exacerbated regional natural disaster risk, while area residents income risescontradictions between personal values to achieve the development strategy of the resource rich region of central assistance type easily lead to the "resource curse".In Chapter5, on the basis of the analysis, the author selected for regional development model based on the local labor force, from the flexibility of the labor force, the structure of industrial development degree of deviation index were starting to explore the development of central assistance strategy to absorb the local labor forcelimitations of existing resources exploitation strategy to disaster risk, proposed as the core of the development model to promote the employment of local labor, that is, the implementation of the strategy of comparative advantage based on labor-intensive industries, based on regional culture, social resources, increase laborincrease the income of peasants and herdsmen; employment on the basis of Chapter6is the conclusion and outlook, summarized in the summary of the study's main conclusions and future research directions.
The main conclusions are:
(1) Due to the unique population policy and childbearing culture,the rate of population growth is fast and the machinery growth of working population is obviously in Jiama Copper Poly metal District; With the increase of mining intensity of China National Gold Group Corporation which is a large state-owned enterprises in this area, we can see nonfarm metastasis in rural labor turn to significantly, Jiama Copper-Polymetallic Mine and its surrounding area is in a "demographic dividend period".
(2) The implementation of the development projects of the central government's assistance created a number of non-farm employment opportunities, but it departure from the local labor supply market because of the high-requirement of cultural qualities and professional skills as well as the limited absorb degree of local workforce considering current development strategy.
(3) Based on regional resource endowments and labor market characteristics, realizing the transition of capital and technology-intensive industries to labor-intensive industries and implementing the strategy of job creation under the premise of the construction of infrastructure basically completed can effectively improve the performance of economic growth, ease the contradictions of income distribution and reduce the economic volatility.
(4) Urban system construction which based on new urbanization strategy can concentrate dispersed surplus labor in rural effectively, promote the division and employment of the labor force. The government adopting innovative financial system and assisting the development of regional agriculture herdsman's micro and small enterprises can promote regional employment effectually.
(5) Multiple benefits of economic, social and environmental must be considered in resource exploitation in resource-based regions of Tibet, with particular emphasis on the formation and governance of the geological disasters, focus on ecological protection and reconstruction, establish special projects such as mining conservation, the geologic hazard prevention, tailings reconstruction etc. It can improve the proportion of employment of local labor and ameliorate the mining environment effectively, finally turn to a both livable and sustained multi-level and comprehensive worker Mining Development Area.
The research results are expected to achieve a breakthrough in the national regional institutional arrangements, economic development, income distribution and other aspects, have important significance to improve the minority areas autogenetic ability to achieve a coordinated regional development and can effectively refute the "external Han alien labor threat theory".
引文
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