股权分置改革的对价问题研究
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摘要
股权分置改革的目标是要消除流通权溢价,实现同股同价,从根本上解决我国股市存在的资源配置效率低下和主体缺失的制度性缺陷问题。而决定其成败的核心问题是对价补偿问题。
本文研究了对价补偿的原因和合理性,认为历史上流通股的高溢价发行及股改后全流通的未来风险是非流通股股东向流通股股东支付对价的主要原因;并认为合理对价水平应该是由套利理论推导出的均衡对价。通过运用均衡对价公式对股权分置改革试点的46家公司及全面股改第23-27批公布方案的71家公司进行实证分析,发现如下问题:所有样本平均折算对价不足平均均衡对价的三分之二;部分公司存在严重过度支付的情况而且此类公司占股改公司比重有越来越大的趋势;设计对价方案时对股本结构的考虑不足,以致于非流通股占总股本比例高的公司折算对价远低于均衡对价;大部分公司根据市场接受的对价系数0.3来设计方案,没有将均衡对价作为确定对价水平的第一原则。
根据研究发现的问题,笔者建议管理层应该尽快建立股权分置改革的对价确定原则;加强对价方案设计的监管;增强股改相关政策信息披露的透明度,降低市场非理性因素对股改的影响。
The shareholder structure reform aims to remove the premium on circulated stock shares and make all the stock shares in circulation with the same price, and resolves the systematic problem in the term of low allocating efficiency and agent default in China stock market. It is the consideration payment problem that can make or mar the reform.
This paper researched the reason and rationality of consideration payment. It was believed that the issue of circulated stock shares at high premium and the future risk after the reform is the main reason that uncirculated stock shareholders pay the premium to the circulated stock shareholders, and the reasonable level of consideration should be the equilibrium consideration induced from the arbitrage theory. This article used the equation of equilibrium consideration to do an empirical research on the 46 listed companies for trial and listed companies that gave out scheme in the 23-27 board of the total shareholder structure reform, and found problems as follows: The average discount consideration payment of all samples is less than the second of three of average equilibrium consideration payment; More and more listed companies overpaid the consideration payment; The share structure was so improperly considered when the scheme of consideration was made that the discount consideration of listed companies was far below the equilibrium consideration; Most of the listed companies made the scheme according to the consideration coefficient of 0.3 that the market accepts, nevertheless, they did not regard the equilibrium consideration as the main principle .
According to the problems found in research, it is suggested that the management should set up the principle of consideration payment of shareholder structure reform as fast as possible, and enforce the supervision of making the consideration scheme and strengthen the transparence of the policy information to reduce the effect of irrational factors on the reform.
本文研究了对价补偿的原因和合理性,认为历史上流通股的高溢价发行及股改后全流通的未来风险是非流通股股东向流通股股东支付对价的主要原因;并认为合理对价水平应该是由套利理论推导出的均衡对价。通过运用均衡对价公式对股权分置改革试点的46家公司及全面股改第23-27批公布方案的71家公司进行实证分析,发现如下问题:所有样本平均折算对价不足平均均衡对价的三分之二;部分公司存在严重过度支付的情况而且此类公司占股改公司比重有越来越大的趋势;设计对价方案时对股本结构的考虑不足,以致于非流通股占总股本比例高的公司折算对价远低于均衡对价;大部分公司根据市场接受的对价系数0.3来设计方案,没有将均衡对价作为确定对价水平的第一原则。
根据研究发现的问题,笔者建议管理层应该尽快建立股权分置改革的对价确定原则;加强对价方案设计的监管;增强股改相关政策信息披露的透明度,降低市场非理性因素对股改的影响。
The shareholder structure reform aims to remove the premium on circulated stock shares and make all the stock shares in circulation with the same price, and resolves the systematic problem in the term of low allocating efficiency and agent default in China stock market. It is the consideration payment problem that can make or mar the reform.
This paper researched the reason and rationality of consideration payment. It was believed that the issue of circulated stock shares at high premium and the future risk after the reform is the main reason that uncirculated stock shareholders pay the premium to the circulated stock shareholders, and the reasonable level of consideration should be the equilibrium consideration induced from the arbitrage theory. This article used the equation of equilibrium consideration to do an empirical research on the 46 listed companies for trial and listed companies that gave out scheme in the 23-27 board of the total shareholder structure reform, and found problems as follows: The average discount consideration payment of all samples is less than the second of three of average equilibrium consideration payment; More and more listed companies overpaid the consideration payment; The share structure was so improperly considered when the scheme of consideration was made that the discount consideration of listed companies was far below the equilibrium consideration; Most of the listed companies made the scheme according to the consideration coefficient of 0.3 that the market accepts, nevertheless, they did not regard the equilibrium consideration as the main principle .
According to the problems found in research, it is suggested that the management should set up the principle of consideration payment of shareholder structure reform as fast as possible, and enforce the supervision of making the consideration scheme and strengthen the transparence of the policy information to reduce the effect of irrational factors on the reform.
引文
[1] 何君光, 张大强. 股权分置改革试点中上市公司估值的研究. 中国资产评估, 2005 年第 7 期:12-14.
[2] 薛定胜. 薛定胜:市净率法确定非流通股价格. 新浪财经,2005 年 5 月.
[3] 张卫星. 中国股市风险大讨论. 新浪财经,1999 年 12 月.
[4] 中国人民大学金融与证券研究所(简称 FSI). 国有股减持修正案的设计原则、定价机制和资金运作模式研究. 金融研究,2001 年第 3 期:11-13.
[5] 华生. 华生:股权分置的市场化分散决策原则和方案. 中国证券报, 2005 年 3月 18 日刊:第 7 版
[6] 易宪容. 2005 年中国股市政策改革的重心与难点. 中国金融, 2005 年第 2 期13-16.
[7] 张卫星. 新淘金记. 新浪财经,2002 年 1 月.
[8] 张卫星. 解决股权分置不能忘记历史. 证券市场周刊,2005 年 3 月:28-29.
[9] 屠光绍. 中国上市公司需要股东共同利益机制. 政要建言, 2005 年 4 月:13.
[10] 诸海滨. 股权分置改革百问. 光大证券,2005 年 6 月 24 日:42-47.
[11] 王均文, 胡正梁. 聚焦股权分置改革. 山东经济战略研究, 2005 年 6 月:7-11.
[12] 申镇. 股权分置改革解开中国证券市场的生死之劫. 中国农垦,2005 年 8 月:37-38.
[13] 刘鸿雁, 马莉. 股权分置变局与标本之争. 二十一世纪经济报道, 2005 年 3 月27 日:第 8 版.
[14] 周放生. 后股权分置时代的国资改革. 商业, 2005 年 7 月:44-45.
[15] 巴曙松. 将开启并购大门——解决股权分置凸现价值投资理念. 证券市场周刊,2005 年 6 月:37.
[16] 袁可龙. 股改对价支付的合理水平与衡量方法探讨. 中国股权分置改革专网,2005 年 8 月.
[17] 张卫星. 破解股权分置改革送股方案的三个迷局. 经济参考报,2005 年 7 月:第 8 版.
[18] 王春. 六大试点方案的综合比较. 证券导刊,2005 年 8 月:34.
[19] 尚福林. 尚福林出席国新办记者招待会就资本市场改革和发展答记者问. 中国证券报,2005 年 6 月 28 日第 1 版.
[20] 刘纪鹏. 股权分置改革试点暴露六病症. 国际金融报,2005 年 7 月:第 4 版.
[21] 杨嘉瑛,李江. 股权分置改革给我国证券市场带来什么. 财经科学,2005 第 4期:23-26.
[22] 林坚. 华生:按非流通股比例支付对价才更加合理. 上海证券报,2005 年 7 月:第 4 版.
[23] 赵振全,丁志国. 国有股流通的定价模式. 中国证券报,2000 年 9 月:第 4 版.
[24] 赵振全,丁志国,周佰成. 国有股流通与股票市场制度修正. 财经科学,2001 年第 6 期:35-39.
[25] 赵振全,丁志国,周佰成. 解决国有股流通的关键原则与对策. 数量经济技术经济研究,2001 年第 8 期:42-44.
[26] 刘纪鹏. 算清股权分置改革中的对价账. 国际金融报, 2005 年 7 月:第 4 版.
[27] 刘纪鹏. 运用可流通底价解决股权分置. 金融经济,2005 年第 8 期:25-27.
[28] 赵煜程. 股权分置的实质及一种市场化解决方案. 科技创业,2005 年第 7 期:46-48.
[29] 李宁, 马胜. 股权分置改革中的对价问题. 商场现代化, 2005 年 12 月:138.
[30] 瞿卫东, 姜诚. 股权分置改革中的对价问题研究. 经济与管理研究, 2006 年第 1 期:42-46.
[31] 史春沛, 邓幼强. 当前股改方案对价水平分析. 经济师, 2006 年第 1 期:135-136.
[32] 丁志国,苏治,杜晓宇. 股权分置改革对价方案解析. 财经科学, 2006 年第 1 期:29-36.
[33] 数据来源上海证券交易所网站: http: // www. sse.com.cn
[34] 数据来源深圳证券交易所网站:http: //www. szse.cn.
[35] 曹凤岐. 证券投资学(第二版)[M]. 北京大学出版社
[36] 约瑟夫·E·斯蒂格利茨.经济学. 北京:中国人民大学出版社,1996.
[37] 罗纳尔德·H·科斯.社会成本问题. 法学与经济学杂志,1960 年 10 月.
[38] Aggrawal R. Anomalies or Llusions-Evidence from Stock Market in English Countries. Journal of International Money and Finance,1999.
[39] Black F and Scholes M. The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liability. Journal of Political Economy, 1973.
[40] Charles N. Financial markets and the economy. Englewood Cliffs. Prentice Hall, 1978.
[41] Dewenter and Malatesta . Public offerings of Stated-owned and Privately-owned enterprises: an international comparison. Journal of Finance, 1997.
[42] E. F. Fama. The behavior of stock market prices. Journal of Business, 1965.
[43] Engle, R. F. and Ng, V. K. Measuring and Testing the Inpact of Newa on Voldility. Journal of Finance, 1993.
[44] Fama, Eugene F and Kenneth R. Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, vo1.33, 3-56, 1993.
[45] Frederic S. Misbkin. The economics of money, banking, and financial markets- 5thed. New York: Addison Wesley Longman, Inc., 1997.
[46] Friedman.M. Money and the Stock Market Journal of Political Economy. April 221-244.
[47] Grossman.S.J. On the efficiency of competitive stock markets when traders have drivers information. Journal of Finance, 1976,5.
[48] Ibboston, R.G. ,J.L.Sindelar. Interial public offerings. Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Vo17, 1994.
[49] LeJand, H. E. Option Pricing and Replication with Transaction Costs . Journal of Finance , 1985 ( 40 ).
[50] Livine, R. Stock Markets Growth and Tax Policy. Journal of Finance September 1991, 46(4).
[51] Merton , R. C. Theory of Rational Option Pricing. Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, 1973 ( 4 ).
[52] Richard J. Teweles and Edward S. Bradley. The stock market- 5th ed. New York: Wiley, John & Sons Inc. Pub., 1987.
[53] Sachs & Woo. Understanding China's Economic Performance. Journal of Policy Reforms, Forthcoming, 1999[11].
[2] 薛定胜. 薛定胜:市净率法确定非流通股价格. 新浪财经,2005 年 5 月.
[3] 张卫星. 中国股市风险大讨论. 新浪财经,1999 年 12 月.
[4] 中国人民大学金融与证券研究所(简称 FSI). 国有股减持修正案的设计原则、定价机制和资金运作模式研究. 金融研究,2001 年第 3 期:11-13.
[5] 华生. 华生:股权分置的市场化分散决策原则和方案. 中国证券报, 2005 年 3月 18 日刊:第 7 版
[6] 易宪容. 2005 年中国股市政策改革的重心与难点. 中国金融, 2005 年第 2 期13-16.
[7] 张卫星. 新淘金记. 新浪财经,2002 年 1 月.
[8] 张卫星. 解决股权分置不能忘记历史. 证券市场周刊,2005 年 3 月:28-29.
[9] 屠光绍. 中国上市公司需要股东共同利益机制. 政要建言, 2005 年 4 月:13.
[10] 诸海滨. 股权分置改革百问. 光大证券,2005 年 6 月 24 日:42-47.
[11] 王均文, 胡正梁. 聚焦股权分置改革. 山东经济战略研究, 2005 年 6 月:7-11.
[12] 申镇. 股权分置改革解开中国证券市场的生死之劫. 中国农垦,2005 年 8 月:37-38.
[13] 刘鸿雁, 马莉. 股权分置变局与标本之争. 二十一世纪经济报道, 2005 年 3 月27 日:第 8 版.
[14] 周放生. 后股权分置时代的国资改革. 商业, 2005 年 7 月:44-45.
[15] 巴曙松. 将开启并购大门——解决股权分置凸现价值投资理念. 证券市场周刊,2005 年 6 月:37.
[16] 袁可龙. 股改对价支付的合理水平与衡量方法探讨. 中国股权分置改革专网,2005 年 8 月.
[17] 张卫星. 破解股权分置改革送股方案的三个迷局. 经济参考报,2005 年 7 月:第 8 版.
[18] 王春. 六大试点方案的综合比较. 证券导刊,2005 年 8 月:34.
[19] 尚福林. 尚福林出席国新办记者招待会就资本市场改革和发展答记者问. 中国证券报,2005 年 6 月 28 日第 1 版.
[20] 刘纪鹏. 股权分置改革试点暴露六病症. 国际金融报,2005 年 7 月:第 4 版.
[21] 杨嘉瑛,李江. 股权分置改革给我国证券市场带来什么. 财经科学,2005 第 4期:23-26.
[22] 林坚. 华生:按非流通股比例支付对价才更加合理. 上海证券报,2005 年 7 月:第 4 版.
[23] 赵振全,丁志国. 国有股流通的定价模式. 中国证券报,2000 年 9 月:第 4 版.
[24] 赵振全,丁志国,周佰成. 国有股流通与股票市场制度修正. 财经科学,2001 年第 6 期:35-39.
[25] 赵振全,丁志国,周佰成. 解决国有股流通的关键原则与对策. 数量经济技术经济研究,2001 年第 8 期:42-44.
[26] 刘纪鹏. 算清股权分置改革中的对价账. 国际金融报, 2005 年 7 月:第 4 版.
[27] 刘纪鹏. 运用可流通底价解决股权分置. 金融经济,2005 年第 8 期:25-27.
[28] 赵煜程. 股权分置的实质及一种市场化解决方案. 科技创业,2005 年第 7 期:46-48.
[29] 李宁, 马胜. 股权分置改革中的对价问题. 商场现代化, 2005 年 12 月:138.
[30] 瞿卫东, 姜诚. 股权分置改革中的对价问题研究. 经济与管理研究, 2006 年第 1 期:42-46.
[31] 史春沛, 邓幼强. 当前股改方案对价水平分析. 经济师, 2006 年第 1 期:135-136.
[32] 丁志国,苏治,杜晓宇. 股权分置改革对价方案解析. 财经科学, 2006 年第 1 期:29-36.
[33] 数据来源上海证券交易所网站: http: // www. sse.com.cn
[34] 数据来源深圳证券交易所网站:http: //www. szse.cn.
[35] 曹凤岐. 证券投资学(第二版)[M]. 北京大学出版社
[36] 约瑟夫·E·斯蒂格利茨.经济学. 北京:中国人民大学出版社,1996.
[37] 罗纳尔德·H·科斯.社会成本问题. 法学与经济学杂志,1960 年 10 月.
[38] Aggrawal R. Anomalies or Llusions-Evidence from Stock Market in English Countries. Journal of International Money and Finance,1999.
[39] Black F and Scholes M. The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liability. Journal of Political Economy, 1973.
[40] Charles N. Financial markets and the economy. Englewood Cliffs. Prentice Hall, 1978.
[41] Dewenter and Malatesta . Public offerings of Stated-owned and Privately-owned enterprises: an international comparison. Journal of Finance, 1997.
[42] E. F. Fama. The behavior of stock market prices. Journal of Business, 1965.
[43] Engle, R. F. and Ng, V. K. Measuring and Testing the Inpact of Newa on Voldility. Journal of Finance, 1993.
[44] Fama, Eugene F and Kenneth R. Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, vo1.33, 3-56, 1993.
[45] Frederic S. Misbkin. The economics of money, banking, and financial markets- 5thed. New York: Addison Wesley Longman, Inc., 1997.
[46] Friedman.M. Money and the Stock Market Journal of Political Economy. April 221-244.
[47] Grossman.S.J. On the efficiency of competitive stock markets when traders have drivers information. Journal of Finance, 1976,5.
[48] Ibboston, R.G. ,J.L.Sindelar. Interial public offerings. Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Vo17, 1994.
[49] LeJand, H. E. Option Pricing and Replication with Transaction Costs . Journal of Finance , 1985 ( 40 ).
[50] Livine, R. Stock Markets Growth and Tax Policy. Journal of Finance September 1991, 46(4).
[51] Merton , R. C. Theory of Rational Option Pricing. Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, 1973 ( 4 ).
[52] Richard J. Teweles and Edward S. Bradley. The stock market- 5th ed. New York: Wiley, John & Sons Inc. Pub., 1987.
[53] Sachs & Woo. Understanding China's Economic Performance. Journal of Policy Reforms, Forthcoming, 1999[11].