小额贷款公司信用风险管理研究
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摘要
在首批七家小额贷款公司试点工作取得一定成效和地方政府的积极推动下,各地小额贷款公司纷纷成立并正式运营,成为适应我国“三农”和中小企业特点,具有中国特色的小额贷款新途径。2008年5月中国人民银行、银监会联合下发《小额贷款公司试点的指导意见》,鼓励和规范我国小额贷款公司的发展。作为一种新型商业化小额贷款组织,我国小额贷款公司迅速发展的过程中,信用风险管理问题日益突出,严重地影响着机构可持续性发展和金融市场稳定。在这一背景下,对小额贷款公司信用风险管理问题进行系统研究具有重要的现实意义。
市场经济条件下,不同类型的金融机构面临着同样的信用风险,但是信用风险特征和形成机理存在一定差异。各种类型金融机构应在一般信用风险管理框架下,结合机构自身特征、信用风险特殊性和实际运作特征实施信用风险识别、评估、预警和控制,选择适宜的信用风险评估指标、评估方法和预警方法,才能实现有效信用风险管理的目标。因此,研究从五个层次展开,首先从关系型借贷理论、软信息理论两个理论视角,回顾相关理论研究和实证研究文献,从中提炼小额贷款公司信用风险管理的理论观点。其次,从主体缺陷、客体缺陷和外部因素等三个层面,剖析小额贷款公司信用风险及其特殊性的具体成因。对小额贷款公司、商业银行和三类新型农村金融机构的机构特征和信用风险管理特征进行系统比较分析,形成小额贷款公司信用风险管理的基本理论框架。再次,借鉴发展中国家和发达国家现有小额贷款信用风险评估指标和评估方法,探讨对小额贷款公司的适用性问题,并展开实证检验和分析。第四,设计小额贷款公司信用风险预警运作流程,确定了适宜的信用风险预警评价方法,并予以实例分析。第五,基于以上理论和实证研究结论,从内部和外部两个层面提出了加强小额贷款公司信用风险控制的具体措施。
研究从主体缺陷、客体缺陷和外部因素等三个层面,剖析小额贷款公司信用风险及其特殊性的具体成因。引入博弈论思想,分析完美信息单次博弈、完美信息重复博弈和不完全信息动态博弈三种情况下,小额贷款公司和贷款客户之间借贷关系的实质,即二者之间属于典型的关系型借贷,关系紧密程度决定着贷款决策的主要依据——软信息的获取数量和质量。
基于对现有小额贷款信用风险评估指标的梳理,形成小额贷款公司信用风险评估指标体系的三个特征维度——客户特征维度、贷款特征维度和关系特征维度。以一系列实地调研、开放式访谈和调查问卷方式获得的第一手数据资料和信贷档案第二手资料为依据,首先采用隶属度分析法选取客户特征维度和贷款特征维度评估指标；然后运用因子分析法确定关系特征维度评估指标,通过信贷员参与的一系列贷款业务和社会活动衡量软信息的获取数量和质量；最后运用Forward stepwise approach和Back stepwise approach对所选取评估指标的合理性予以实证检验,确定了小额贷款公司信用风险评估指标体系。根据小额贷款公司不同发展阶段的软信息获取难易度、有效性和客户提供信息的可靠性等软信息特质以及样本数据限制,构建了阶段性小额贷款公司信用风险评估方法——发展初期基于软集合的信用风险评估方法和发展成熟期基于三个特征维度的信用风险评估方法。运用信用评分模型优劣评价标准,对现有各种小额贷款信用风险评估方法的评估效果予以实证检验和比较,提出了适宜的小额贷款公司信用风险评估方法——交叉验证概率神经网络。
研究设计了小额贷款公司信用风险预警运作流程,通过对贷后信用风险警源因素的分析,运用模糊数学与灰色系统理论相结合的模糊灰色综合评价方法,充分利用各类外部信息来源、专家经验和知识评判信息的模糊性与灰性,提高预警结论的客观性和前瞻性,并以某省(区)小额贷款公司企业客户贷款为例予以实例分析。
结合国外经验和信用风险管理现状,从内部、外部两个层面探讨加强小额贷款公司信用风险控制的一系列措施,强调内外部的协调配合能够提供信用风险控制的有效防火墙,保持小额贷款公司的可持续性竞争优势,促进我国小额信贷市场融资环境和竞争性农村信贷市场的不断完善。
With the pilot of seven microloan companies have achieved certain suceess and actively promoted by local governments, microloan companies have set up and in operation formally in China, became a new way of micro finance with Chinese identity that adapting to "the issues of agriculture, farmer and rural area" and characteristics of SMEs in rural areas. In May2008, People's Bank of China and Banking Regulatory Commission issued'the pilot guidance of microloan company'jointly, to encourage and regulate the development of microloan company. Being a new commercial microfinance organization, with its rapid development, credit risk management issue of microloan company became prominent increasingly, affecting sustainable development of institutions and stability of rural financial market seriously. In this context, credit risk management of microloan company is significance practically.
Different financial institutions face the same credit risk in market economy, but the characteristics and causes of credit risk are different. In order to implement effective credit risk management, different financial institutions should integrate institutional characteristics, special nature of credit risk and operational characteristics into the general framework of credit risk management.This paper is proceeded as the following five levels hierarchically:Firstly, from two perspectives of relationship banking theory and soft information theory, summarized theoretical and empirical research literatures, extracted appropriate viewpoints of credit risk management of microloan company in theory. Secondly, dissected the special nature and causes of credit risk of microloan company in three aspects, which is principal defects, object defects and external factors. Based on comparative analysis of microloan companies, commercial bank and new rural financial institutions in institutional characteristics and credit risk management features, conducted credit risk management framework of microloan company. Again, with reference to the existing indicators and methods of credit risk evaluation in developing and developed microcredit, probed the applicability into microloan company, and expanded a empirical test. Fourthly, designed a credit risk early warning operational processes of microloan company, selected proper evaluation method to determine the situation of credit risk, and to case study following. Finally, based on the above theoretical and empirical analysis, put forward series measures of credit risk control.
With the introduction of game theory, conducted a game model to analyze the nature of lending relationship betweeen microloan company and customer in the case of single game with perfect information, repeated dynamic game with perfect information and incomplete information in rural credit market, revealing the special nature of credit risk and its underlying causes further.
Based on the existing credit risk evaluation indicators of microloan, determined credit risk evaluation indicators of microloan company in three dimensions------customer feature dimension, loan feature dimension and relationship feature dimension. With series of field researches, open interviews and questionnaires, obtaining first-hand survey data and secondary sources of credit file, grounded on the subordinate degree analysis, factor analysis, forward stepwise approach and back stepwise approach method, determined the credit risk evaluation indicators of microloan company ultimately after two screening procedures. In different development stage------early and maturity stage of microloan company, conducted different evaluation methods according to the difficulty, accessibility, reliability of characteristics of soft information and limited sample data. Analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of various credit scoring methods and evaluation criteria comparatively, and empirical study was carried out to test the existing credit risk evaluation methods of microloan. And proposed a credit risk evaluation method of mircoloan company------probabilistic neural network on cross-validation.
The study designed an early warning operational processes of microloan company, analyzed early warning factors of credit risk, conducted a comprehensive evaluation method on fuzzy theory and gray system theory, taking full advantages of various external information sources, expertise knowledge and gray, ambiguity criteria of evaluation. Improving the objectivity, forward-looking conclusion of credit risk early warning, and then carried out a empirical analysis.
With foreign experience mentioned above and the status of microloan companies, put forward complementary measures of credit risk control from internal and external perspective, emphasizing only through coordination and cooperation can provide firewall for microloan companies, preserving sustainable competitive advantages, promoting continuous improvement of financing environment in rural areas and competitive rural credit market.
市场经济条件下,不同类型的金融机构面临着同样的信用风险,但是信用风险特征和形成机理存在一定差异。各种类型金融机构应在一般信用风险管理框架下,结合机构自身特征、信用风险特殊性和实际运作特征实施信用风险识别、评估、预警和控制,选择适宜的信用风险评估指标、评估方法和预警方法,才能实现有效信用风险管理的目标。因此,研究从五个层次展开,首先从关系型借贷理论、软信息理论两个理论视角,回顾相关理论研究和实证研究文献,从中提炼小额贷款公司信用风险管理的理论观点。其次,从主体缺陷、客体缺陷和外部因素等三个层面,剖析小额贷款公司信用风险及其特殊性的具体成因。对小额贷款公司、商业银行和三类新型农村金融机构的机构特征和信用风险管理特征进行系统比较分析,形成小额贷款公司信用风险管理的基本理论框架。再次,借鉴发展中国家和发达国家现有小额贷款信用风险评估指标和评估方法,探讨对小额贷款公司的适用性问题,并展开实证检验和分析。第四,设计小额贷款公司信用风险预警运作流程,确定了适宜的信用风险预警评价方法,并予以实例分析。第五,基于以上理论和实证研究结论,从内部和外部两个层面提出了加强小额贷款公司信用风险控制的具体措施。
研究从主体缺陷、客体缺陷和外部因素等三个层面,剖析小额贷款公司信用风险及其特殊性的具体成因。引入博弈论思想,分析完美信息单次博弈、完美信息重复博弈和不完全信息动态博弈三种情况下,小额贷款公司和贷款客户之间借贷关系的实质,即二者之间属于典型的关系型借贷,关系紧密程度决定着贷款决策的主要依据——软信息的获取数量和质量。
基于对现有小额贷款信用风险评估指标的梳理,形成小额贷款公司信用风险评估指标体系的三个特征维度——客户特征维度、贷款特征维度和关系特征维度。以一系列实地调研、开放式访谈和调查问卷方式获得的第一手数据资料和信贷档案第二手资料为依据,首先采用隶属度分析法选取客户特征维度和贷款特征维度评估指标；然后运用因子分析法确定关系特征维度评估指标,通过信贷员参与的一系列贷款业务和社会活动衡量软信息的获取数量和质量；最后运用Forward stepwise approach和Back stepwise approach对所选取评估指标的合理性予以实证检验,确定了小额贷款公司信用风险评估指标体系。根据小额贷款公司不同发展阶段的软信息获取难易度、有效性和客户提供信息的可靠性等软信息特质以及样本数据限制,构建了阶段性小额贷款公司信用风险评估方法——发展初期基于软集合的信用风险评估方法和发展成熟期基于三个特征维度的信用风险评估方法。运用信用评分模型优劣评价标准,对现有各种小额贷款信用风险评估方法的评估效果予以实证检验和比较,提出了适宜的小额贷款公司信用风险评估方法——交叉验证概率神经网络。
研究设计了小额贷款公司信用风险预警运作流程,通过对贷后信用风险警源因素的分析,运用模糊数学与灰色系统理论相结合的模糊灰色综合评价方法,充分利用各类外部信息来源、专家经验和知识评判信息的模糊性与灰性,提高预警结论的客观性和前瞻性,并以某省(区)小额贷款公司企业客户贷款为例予以实例分析。
结合国外经验和信用风险管理现状,从内部、外部两个层面探讨加强小额贷款公司信用风险控制的一系列措施,强调内外部的协调配合能够提供信用风险控制的有效防火墙,保持小额贷款公司的可持续性竞争优势,促进我国小额信贷市场融资环境和竞争性农村信贷市场的不断完善。
With the pilot of seven microloan companies have achieved certain suceess and actively promoted by local governments, microloan companies have set up and in operation formally in China, became a new way of micro finance with Chinese identity that adapting to "the issues of agriculture, farmer and rural area" and characteristics of SMEs in rural areas. In May2008, People's Bank of China and Banking Regulatory Commission issued'the pilot guidance of microloan company'jointly, to encourage and regulate the development of microloan company. Being a new commercial microfinance organization, with its rapid development, credit risk management issue of microloan company became prominent increasingly, affecting sustainable development of institutions and stability of rural financial market seriously. In this context, credit risk management of microloan company is significance practically.
Different financial institutions face the same credit risk in market economy, but the characteristics and causes of credit risk are different. In order to implement effective credit risk management, different financial institutions should integrate institutional characteristics, special nature of credit risk and operational characteristics into the general framework of credit risk management.This paper is proceeded as the following five levels hierarchically:Firstly, from two perspectives of relationship banking theory and soft information theory, summarized theoretical and empirical research literatures, extracted appropriate viewpoints of credit risk management of microloan company in theory. Secondly, dissected the special nature and causes of credit risk of microloan company in three aspects, which is principal defects, object defects and external factors. Based on comparative analysis of microloan companies, commercial bank and new rural financial institutions in institutional characteristics and credit risk management features, conducted credit risk management framework of microloan company. Again, with reference to the existing indicators and methods of credit risk evaluation in developing and developed microcredit, probed the applicability into microloan company, and expanded a empirical test. Fourthly, designed a credit risk early warning operational processes of microloan company, selected proper evaluation method to determine the situation of credit risk, and to case study following. Finally, based on the above theoretical and empirical analysis, put forward series measures of credit risk control.
With the introduction of game theory, conducted a game model to analyze the nature of lending relationship betweeen microloan company and customer in the case of single game with perfect information, repeated dynamic game with perfect information and incomplete information in rural credit market, revealing the special nature of credit risk and its underlying causes further.
Based on the existing credit risk evaluation indicators of microloan, determined credit risk evaluation indicators of microloan company in three dimensions------customer feature dimension, loan feature dimension and relationship feature dimension. With series of field researches, open interviews and questionnaires, obtaining first-hand survey data and secondary sources of credit file, grounded on the subordinate degree analysis, factor analysis, forward stepwise approach and back stepwise approach method, determined the credit risk evaluation indicators of microloan company ultimately after two screening procedures. In different development stage------early and maturity stage of microloan company, conducted different evaluation methods according to the difficulty, accessibility, reliability of characteristics of soft information and limited sample data. Analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of various credit scoring methods and evaluation criteria comparatively, and empirical study was carried out to test the existing credit risk evaluation methods of microloan. And proposed a credit risk evaluation method of mircoloan company------probabilistic neural network on cross-validation.
The study designed an early warning operational processes of microloan company, analyzed early warning factors of credit risk, conducted a comprehensive evaluation method on fuzzy theory and gray system theory, taking full advantages of various external information sources, expertise knowledge and gray, ambiguity criteria of evaluation. Improving the objectivity, forward-looking conclusion of credit risk early warning, and then carried out a empirical analysis.
With foreign experience mentioned above and the status of microloan companies, put forward complementary measures of credit risk control from internal and external perspective, emphasizing only through coordination and cooperation can provide firewall for microloan companies, preserving sustainable competitive advantages, promoting continuous improvement of financing environment in rural areas and competitive rural credit market.
引文
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