太原地区需求侧管理经济评价模型与分析
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摘要
电力需求侧管理(DSM)是一种先进的提高电力资源利用效率的管理方法。有效的DSM可以使电力市场的参与各方深受其益。随着太原地区经济的高速发展,电力供需矛盾日益突出,国外和国内的一些地区的成功经验表明在太原地区有必要实施这项科学的资源管理方法。
本文介绍了DSM在国内外的实施情况,分析了太原地区用电市场的现状,采用灰色预测方法对该地区未来几年内的用电情况进行了分析预测,指出了在太原地区实施DSM的必要性。在此基础上,采用考虑不确定因素的DSM向项目成本效益评价方法评价了太原地区实施DSM的成本和效益,结果证明这种方法更加符合太原地区实际情况,更能减少实施中的风险。通过算例分析还指出了有必要建立一种激励机制提高电网公司实施DSM项目的积极性,并且对如何构建激励机制给出了政策性建议。
Demand-Side Management is an advanced method of management to improve the electric resources' efficiency. An effective DSM is favorable to all the partners of the electric markets. With the high economic development of the Tai Yuan district, the contradictory between the electric supply and the demand is increasing prominent. The successful experiences of the overseas and our country show that it is necessary for the Tai Yuan district to implement the DSM.Introducing the application of DSM and analyzing the use of electricity in Tai Yuan district, this paper forecasts the electric use of this district for several years using Gray Forecasting Method and points out the necessity of application of DSM for Tai Yuan district. Then the paper appraises the benefits and the costs of the DSM in Tai Yuan using an appraising method considering the uncertain factors. The results show that this method is more suitable for the Tai Yuan district's realities and can reduce the implementing risks. It also points out that it is necessary to build an encouraging mechanism to drive the grid to implement DSM actively, and provides some suggestions.
本文介绍了DSM在国内外的实施情况,分析了太原地区用电市场的现状,采用灰色预测方法对该地区未来几年内的用电情况进行了分析预测,指出了在太原地区实施DSM的必要性。在此基础上,采用考虑不确定因素的DSM向项目成本效益评价方法评价了太原地区实施DSM的成本和效益,结果证明这种方法更加符合太原地区实际情况,更能减少实施中的风险。通过算例分析还指出了有必要建立一种激励机制提高电网公司实施DSM项目的积极性,并且对如何构建激励机制给出了政策性建议。
Demand-Side Management is an advanced method of management to improve the electric resources' efficiency. An effective DSM is favorable to all the partners of the electric markets. With the high economic development of the Tai Yuan district, the contradictory between the electric supply and the demand is increasing prominent. The successful experiences of the overseas and our country show that it is necessary for the Tai Yuan district to implement the DSM.Introducing the application of DSM and analyzing the use of electricity in Tai Yuan district, this paper forecasts the electric use of this district for several years using Gray Forecasting Method and points out the necessity of application of DSM for Tai Yuan district. Then the paper appraises the benefits and the costs of the DSM in Tai Yuan using an appraising method considering the uncertain factors. The results show that this method is more suitable for the Tai Yuan district's realities and can reduce the implementing risks. It also points out that it is necessary to build an encouraging mechanism to drive the grid to implement DSM actively, and provides some suggestions.
引文
[1] 卜迪纯.电力需求侧管理:全社会共享的资源[J].电力需求侧管理,2004,6(1):16～17
[2] 于戎.解读电力需求侧管理[J].华北电业,2004(6):1
[3] 电力工业部计划用电办公室.国外电力需求侧管理.北京中国电力出版社1997,1～5:13～15
[4] 钟庆,吴捷,张庆云.需求侧管理技术应用综述[J].广东电力,2002,15(1):21～25
[5] 曾鸣.电力需求侧管理[M].中国电力出版社.2001
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[7] 宋宏坤.美国加州如何通过DSM解决能源危机[J].电力需求侧管理,2004,6(3):62～64
[8] 国家经贸委考察团.美国、加拿大电力需求侧管理考察报告[J].电力需求侧管理,2002,4(3):58～60
[9] 麦卡锡·埃德加,贡光禹.英国竞争性电力市场环境中的需求侧管理[J].电力需求侧管理,2000,4:44-46
[10] 胡子珩,黄日星,陈韧俐.电力需求侧管理全球发展经验及启示[J].大众用电,2004(9):3～5
[11] Sharma, D.Parameswara etc. Analytical search of problems and prospects of power sector through Delphi study: case study of Kerala State, India[J]. Energy Policy 2003,31(9): 1245～1255
[12] Romeo Pacudan, Elaine de Guzman. Impact of energy efficiency policy to productive efficiency of electricity distribution industry in the Philippines[J]. Energy Economics 2002,24(1):41～54
[13] M.S. Majid, EM. Taha etc. Impact of demand-side retrofit on the energy savings at the Universiti Teknologi Malaysia[J]. Power Engineering Society Winter Meeting, 2000. IEEE, Singapore 534～539
[14] S.M. Hasnain, S.H. Alawaji etc. Prospects of cool thermal storage utilization in Saudi Arabia[J].Energy Conversion and Management 2000 41(11) 1829-1839
[15] W.L. Lee,EW.H. Yik. Framework for formulating a performance-based incentive-rebate scale for the demand side energy management scheme for commercial buildings in Hong Kong[J].Applied Energy,2002,73(8): 139～166
[16] 陈铁成.北京市积极推进电力需求侧管理[J].节能与环保:17～18
[17] 张开利,王惠英.上海电力需求侧管理现状和设想[J].上海节能,2004(2):33～38
[18] 王惠英.上海电力需求侧管理对策研究[J].上海节能,2005(1):20～23
[19] 郑龙.上海电力迎峰度夏和需求侧管理[J].上海节能,2005(3):26～28
[20] 周长敬.电力需求侧管理对胜利油田的激励作用[J].电力需求侧管理,2004,6(4):8～10
[21] 江苏省经贸委.江苏电力需求侧管理成效显著[J].中国经贸导刊,2004(19):37～38
[22] 方耀明,王冬利,宋宏坤.6省市2003年迎峰度夏调研分析[J].电力需求侧管理,2003,5(5):3～7
[23] 朱成章.对电力需求侧管理的几点看法[J].节能与环保,2004(5):10～11
[24] 朱密.电力可持续发展的战略选择[J].中国电力企业管理,2004(5):31～33
[25] 刘亲民.缺不缺电都应加强需求侧管理[J].中国电力企业管理,2004(5):33～35
[26] 牛东晓,曹树华,赵磊,张文泉.电力负荷预测技术及其应用[M].北京:中国电力出版社,1998
[27] 朱成章,徐任武.需求侧管理(DSM)[M].北京:中国电力出版社,1999.
[28] 高岱,袁桂来,马玉清,陈昆泉.南昌 DSM 研究的成本效益分析[J].江西能源.1998(1):10～18
[29] 曾庆仪.南昌地区电力需求侧管理的应用分析[J].华东电力.2004,32(2):12～14
[30] 刘军.需求侧管理评价指标体系及评价模型[J].华北电力技术.2003(7)
[31] 余良.基于DSM的节能项目投资效益评价与激励机制研究[硕士学位论文].重庆大学硕士学位论文.2003.04.
[32] 傅家骥等.工业技术经济学[M].清华大学出版社.1996
[33] 陈肖红,张彩庆,齐正平.DSM激励机制及其在我国的可行性[J].电力需求侧管理,2004,6(5):7～9
[34] 谢翠菊,孙新跃,周志伟.电力需求侧管理激励机制探讨[J].电力需求侧管理,2005,7(4):53～55
[35] 曾鸣.鼓励电力公司实施DSM的若干政策建议[J].电力需求侧管,2000,(4):17～19
[36] Flory J, Peters J, Vogt L, Keating K, Hopkins B, Friedman N.R.. Evaluating DSM: can an engineer count on it? A short note paper summarizing a panel session at the July 1992 summer power meeting[J]. IEEE transaction on Power Systems, 1994,9(4):1752～1758
[37] Rankin R. et al. Demand side management for commercial buildings using an inline heat pump water heating methodology[J]. Energy Conversion and Management, 2004, 45 (9-10):1553～1563
[38] Zeng Ming, Zhao Lizhi, Liu Baohua, Wang Baoqing;Liu Gendong;Zhao Lei. The study on the feasibility of DSM for Beijing[J]. IEEE international conference on Power System Technology,1998,1 (1):302～306
[39] Sheen J.N. Economic profitability analysis of demand side management program[J]. Energy Conversion and Management,46(18-19):2919～2935
[40] Roman R, Wilson R. Commercial demand side management using a programmable logic controller[J]. IEEE transaction on Power Systems,1995,10(1):376～379
[2] 于戎.解读电力需求侧管理[J].华北电业,2004(6):1
[3] 电力工业部计划用电办公室.国外电力需求侧管理.北京中国电力出版社1997,1～5:13～15
[4] 钟庆,吴捷,张庆云.需求侧管理技术应用综述[J].广东电力,2002,15(1):21～25
[5] 曾鸣.电力需求侧管理[M].中国电力出版社.2001
[6] 孙小菲.美国实施DSM能效项目及政策介绍[J].电力需求侧管理,2005,7(2):63-64
[7] 宋宏坤.美国加州如何通过DSM解决能源危机[J].电力需求侧管理,2004,6(3):62～64
[8] 国家经贸委考察团.美国、加拿大电力需求侧管理考察报告[J].电力需求侧管理,2002,4(3):58～60
[9] 麦卡锡·埃德加,贡光禹.英国竞争性电力市场环境中的需求侧管理[J].电力需求侧管理,2000,4:44-46
[10] 胡子珩,黄日星,陈韧俐.电力需求侧管理全球发展经验及启示[J].大众用电,2004(9):3～5
[11] Sharma, D.Parameswara etc. Analytical search of problems and prospects of power sector through Delphi study: case study of Kerala State, India[J]. Energy Policy 2003,31(9): 1245～1255
[12] Romeo Pacudan, Elaine de Guzman. Impact of energy efficiency policy to productive efficiency of electricity distribution industry in the Philippines[J]. Energy Economics 2002,24(1):41～54
[13] M.S. Majid, EM. Taha etc. Impact of demand-side retrofit on the energy savings at the Universiti Teknologi Malaysia[J]. Power Engineering Society Winter Meeting, 2000. IEEE, Singapore 534～539
[14] S.M. Hasnain, S.H. Alawaji etc. Prospects of cool thermal storage utilization in Saudi Arabia[J].Energy Conversion and Management 2000 41(11) 1829-1839
[15] W.L. Lee,EW.H. Yik. Framework for formulating a performance-based incentive-rebate scale for the demand side energy management scheme for commercial buildings in Hong Kong[J].Applied Energy,2002,73(8): 139～166
[16] 陈铁成.北京市积极推进电力需求侧管理[J].节能与环保:17～18
[17] 张开利,王惠英.上海电力需求侧管理现状和设想[J].上海节能,2004(2):33～38
[18] 王惠英.上海电力需求侧管理对策研究[J].上海节能,2005(1):20～23
[19] 郑龙.上海电力迎峰度夏和需求侧管理[J].上海节能,2005(3):26～28
[20] 周长敬.电力需求侧管理对胜利油田的激励作用[J].电力需求侧管理,2004,6(4):8～10
[21] 江苏省经贸委.江苏电力需求侧管理成效显著[J].中国经贸导刊,2004(19):37～38
[22] 方耀明,王冬利,宋宏坤.6省市2003年迎峰度夏调研分析[J].电力需求侧管理,2003,5(5):3～7
[23] 朱成章.对电力需求侧管理的几点看法[J].节能与环保,2004(5):10～11
[24] 朱密.电力可持续发展的战略选择[J].中国电力企业管理,2004(5):31～33
[25] 刘亲民.缺不缺电都应加强需求侧管理[J].中国电力企业管理,2004(5):33～35
[26] 牛东晓,曹树华,赵磊,张文泉.电力负荷预测技术及其应用[M].北京:中国电力出版社,1998
[27] 朱成章,徐任武.需求侧管理(DSM)[M].北京:中国电力出版社,1999.
[28] 高岱,袁桂来,马玉清,陈昆泉.南昌 DSM 研究的成本效益分析[J].江西能源.1998(1):10～18
[29] 曾庆仪.南昌地区电力需求侧管理的应用分析[J].华东电力.2004,32(2):12～14
[30] 刘军.需求侧管理评价指标体系及评价模型[J].华北电力技术.2003(7)
[31] 余良.基于DSM的节能项目投资效益评价与激励机制研究[硕士学位论文].重庆大学硕士学位论文.2003.04.
[32] 傅家骥等.工业技术经济学[M].清华大学出版社.1996
[33] 陈肖红,张彩庆,齐正平.DSM激励机制及其在我国的可行性[J].电力需求侧管理,2004,6(5):7～9
[34] 谢翠菊,孙新跃,周志伟.电力需求侧管理激励机制探讨[J].电力需求侧管理,2005,7(4):53～55
[35] 曾鸣.鼓励电力公司实施DSM的若干政策建议[J].电力需求侧管,2000,(4):17～19
[36] Flory J, Peters J, Vogt L, Keating K, Hopkins B, Friedman N.R.. Evaluating DSM: can an engineer count on it? A short note paper summarizing a panel session at the July 1992 summer power meeting[J]. IEEE transaction on Power Systems, 1994,9(4):1752～1758
[37] Rankin R. et al. Demand side management for commercial buildings using an inline heat pump water heating methodology[J]. Energy Conversion and Management, 2004, 45 (9-10):1553～1563
[38] Zeng Ming, Zhao Lizhi, Liu Baohua, Wang Baoqing;Liu Gendong;Zhao Lei. The study on the feasibility of DSM for Beijing[J]. IEEE international conference on Power System Technology,1998,1 (1):302～306
[39] Sheen J.N. Economic profitability analysis of demand side management program[J]. Energy Conversion and Management,46(18-19):2919～2935
[40] Roman R, Wilson R. Commercial demand side management using a programmable logic controller[J]. IEEE transaction on Power Systems,1995,10(1):376～379