电力市场条件下发电企业盈利策略研究
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摘要
电力市场条件下,发电企业的运营方式和经营策略与垄断一体化经营时期相比正在发生重大转变。在新的电力市场体系中,上网电价和上网电量不再确定,发电企业收入要通过竞争实现。同时,企业收入结构也有显著改变,统一的发电市场根据不同的特性被细分为许多相互联系又相对独立的具体细分市场,这些细分市场共同构成发电企业的收入来源。此时,企业面临的最关键问题是如何在满足各种约束条件的情况下,针对不同的细分市场,制定最优的收入策略和成本策略以获取最大的利润,并运用科学方法规避经营风险。
发电企业的收入主要是在各个电力细分市场中实现的。电量市场(包括中长期合同市场和现货市场)、辅助服务市场(本文主要探讨系统备用市场)、容量市场等都各有其特点。本文基于对各电力细分市场特点的把握,探讨了发电企业在各细分市场上的收入策略。由于同质的电能要在不同的市场上进行交易,且各市场电价不同,这涉及到如何对发电容量进行分配的问题。本文基于现代投资组合理论,运用效用函数,通过构建发电企业在合同市场与现货市场间分配发电容量的数学模型,确定了两者的比例关系,为发电企业合理分配发电容量提供参考。对于发电成本,本文在分析发电企业成本构成的基础上,首先探讨了固定成本的计算与分摊方法。其次,引入实时发电成本分析以对生产过程中连续发生的成本和成本变动进行实时测量、计算和分析,实时追踪生产成本转化为商品的过程,分析成本的变动趋势,从而改变单纯依靠会计成本分析的方法,使成本的分析与电力市场相适应。煤炭成本是发电企业最主要的变动成本。本文通过探讨现阶段煤电关系指出,发电企业应充分整合内外资源,加强对电煤供应侧的管理,并提出了可行策略。
电力市场条件下经营风险不可避免,中长期合同虽然有规避风险的功能,但其作用也是有限的。本文给出了运用动态规划规避竞价上网风险的模型和求解方法。国外电力市场实践证明,建立电力金融市场,通过电力期货和期权可以有效地达到规避风险的目的。发电企业可以利用合理的期货和期权交易达到套期保值甚至是套利的目的。
Compare with the age of integration, under the condition of electricity market, the operation mode and management strategy of power generation enterprise are being reached huge change, facing opportunities and challenges which are unprecedented. In the new power market structure, the purchase price and load of generation are random variables, the revenue of power generation enterprise are implemented by competition. Meanwhile, their revenue structure also change significantly, the unified market was segment into many parts which are independent but contact with each other. This is the source of revenue. At this time, the most critical problem of power generation enterprise in the power market is how to develop the best revenue strategy and cost strategy to maximize profit in the condition of some constraints.
The revenue of power generation enterprise is mainly implemented in electricity market segments. Each market such as load market (include of mid-long term contract market and spot market), ancillary services (this paper mainly discuss reserve service), capacity market, has its own features. Based on analysis of the features for each market, this paper first discussed revenue strategy of power generation enterprise in each market. The electricity is transacted in each of market. Because of different purchase price, we must consider how to distribute electricity capacity in each market, this paper discussed the problem that how power generation enterprise distribute electricity capacity between two market by utility function.
So as to generation cost, based on the analysis of cost structure of power generation enterprise, this paper first discussed the calculation and sharing of fixed cost. Secondly, we introduced real-time cost analysis to analyze the cost and the change of cost which are occurred continuous in Production process, track the progress that cost transform into commodities, and analyze the change trend of cost. Because the cost of coal is the most important variable cost of power generation enterprise, we proposed that power generation enterprise take some measures to strengthen the management of coal.
Under the condition of electricity market, operating risks are inevitable, though mid-long term contract has the function to avoid risks, its efficacy is limited. This paper gave a model to avoid competition risks by use Dynamic Program. The practice of abroad electricity market suggest that electricity financial markets is a useful way to avoid risks, so this paper pointed out that power generation enterprise could use financial power trading to achieve the aim that hedging or arbitrage.
发电企业的收入主要是在各个电力细分市场中实现的。电量市场(包括中长期合同市场和现货市场)、辅助服务市场(本文主要探讨系统备用市场)、容量市场等都各有其特点。本文基于对各电力细分市场特点的把握,探讨了发电企业在各细分市场上的收入策略。由于同质的电能要在不同的市场上进行交易,且各市场电价不同,这涉及到如何对发电容量进行分配的问题。本文基于现代投资组合理论,运用效用函数,通过构建发电企业在合同市场与现货市场间分配发电容量的数学模型,确定了两者的比例关系,为发电企业合理分配发电容量提供参考。对于发电成本,本文在分析发电企业成本构成的基础上,首先探讨了固定成本的计算与分摊方法。其次,引入实时发电成本分析以对生产过程中连续发生的成本和成本变动进行实时测量、计算和分析,实时追踪生产成本转化为商品的过程,分析成本的变动趋势,从而改变单纯依靠会计成本分析的方法,使成本的分析与电力市场相适应。煤炭成本是发电企业最主要的变动成本。本文通过探讨现阶段煤电关系指出,发电企业应充分整合内外资源,加强对电煤供应侧的管理,并提出了可行策略。
电力市场条件下经营风险不可避免,中长期合同虽然有规避风险的功能,但其作用也是有限的。本文给出了运用动态规划规避竞价上网风险的模型和求解方法。国外电力市场实践证明,建立电力金融市场,通过电力期货和期权可以有效地达到规避风险的目的。发电企业可以利用合理的期货和期权交易达到套期保值甚至是套利的目的。
Compare with the age of integration, under the condition of electricity market, the operation mode and management strategy of power generation enterprise are being reached huge change, facing opportunities and challenges which are unprecedented. In the new power market structure, the purchase price and load of generation are random variables, the revenue of power generation enterprise are implemented by competition. Meanwhile, their revenue structure also change significantly, the unified market was segment into many parts which are independent but contact with each other. This is the source of revenue. At this time, the most critical problem of power generation enterprise in the power market is how to develop the best revenue strategy and cost strategy to maximize profit in the condition of some constraints.
The revenue of power generation enterprise is mainly implemented in electricity market segments. Each market such as load market (include of mid-long term contract market and spot market), ancillary services (this paper mainly discuss reserve service), capacity market, has its own features. Based on analysis of the features for each market, this paper first discussed revenue strategy of power generation enterprise in each market. The electricity is transacted in each of market. Because of different purchase price, we must consider how to distribute electricity capacity in each market, this paper discussed the problem that how power generation enterprise distribute electricity capacity between two market by utility function.
So as to generation cost, based on the analysis of cost structure of power generation enterprise, this paper first discussed the calculation and sharing of fixed cost. Secondly, we introduced real-time cost analysis to analyze the cost and the change of cost which are occurred continuous in Production process, track the progress that cost transform into commodities, and analyze the change trend of cost. Because the cost of coal is the most important variable cost of power generation enterprise, we proposed that power generation enterprise take some measures to strengthen the management of coal.
Under the condition of electricity market, operating risks are inevitable, though mid-long term contract has the function to avoid risks, its efficacy is limited. This paper gave a model to avoid competition risks by use Dynamic Program. The practice of abroad electricity market suggest that electricity financial markets is a useful way to avoid risks, so this paper pointed out that power generation enterprise could use financial power trading to achieve the aim that hedging or arbitrage.
引文
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[2] Alvarado f. The stability of power market. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 1999, 14(2):505-511
[3] 刘军虎,陈皓勇,张显. 电力市场远期合同交易的实验分析. 经济经纬,2007,6:26-29
[4] 黄永皓,尚金成. 电力中长期和约交易市场地运作机制与模型. 电力系统自动化, 2003, 27(4):31-36
[5] 迟正刚,张敏. 远期合同市场对电力市场稳定性的影响. 电力系统自动化, 2005, 29(9):11-13
[6] Gedra T W. Optional forward contracts for electric power markets. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems. 1994, 9(4):1766-1773
[7] Bjorgan R, Liu C C, Dahlgren R. Pricing flexible electricity contracts. IEEE Trans on Power Systems, 2006, 21(2):477-482
[8] Newbery D M. Competition, contracts, and entry in the electricity spot market. Journal of Economics, 1998, 29(4):726-749
[9] Green R J. The electricity contract market in England and Wales. Journal of Industrial Economics, 1999, 47(1):107-124
[10] Klemperer P D, Meyer M A. Supply function equilibria in oligopoly under uncertainty econometric. IEEE Trans on Power Systems, 2006, 21(3):1243-1277
[11] Allaz B, Vila J. Cournot competition, forward markets and efficiency. Journal of Economic Theory, 1999, 59(1):1-16
[12] 谢开,刘广一,于尔铿,等. 电力市场中的输电服务(二)—辅助服务及其定价电网技术,1997,21(4): 58-63
[13] 赵学顺,汪震,等.电力市场中运行备用的获取和定价机制综述. 浙江大学学报(工学版),2004,38(1):52-59
[14] 张保会,王立永,等.基于供需双方可靠性竞标的辅助服务交易新机制.电网技术,2005,29(12):52-61
[15] Flynn M E, Sheridan P W, Dillon J D. Reliability and reserve in competitive electricity market scheduling. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2001, 16(1):78-87
[16] 言茂松,邹斌.概率学的AGC先验定价和后验考核新方法.电力系统自动化,2003,27(2):1-6
[17] 丁明,齐先军,安玲.旋转备用市场中考虑可靠性的多目标分层决策.电力系统自动化,2003,27(13):17-22
[18] 谭论农,张保会.市场环境下的事故备用容量.中国电机工程学报,2002 ,22 (11):54-58
[19] 林万警,刘烧,等.发电侧电力市场下的AGC容量确定与机组选择.电力系统自动化,2004,28(19): 17-21
[20] 赵学顺,余志伟,钟志勇,等. 基于高峰负荷定价理论的备用获取和定价.电力系统自动化,2003,27(2):24-28
[21] 文福拴,David A K.加州电力市场失败的教训. 电力系统自动化,2001, 25(5):1-5
[22] Vazquez C, Rivier M. A market approach to long-term security of supply. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2002, 17(2):349-357
[23] Hobbs B F, Inon J, Stoft S E. Installed Capacity Requirements and Price Caps: Oil on the Water, or Fuel on the Fire. The Electricity Journal, 2001, 14(6):23-34
[24] 文福拴,吴复立,倪以信. 电力市场环境下的发电容量充裕性问题. 电力系统自动化,2002, 26(19):16-21
[25] Grande O S, Doorman G L, Wangensteen I. Peaking capacity in restructured power systems: experience and solution. In: IEEE Porto Power Tech Conference 2001, 16(3):9-19
[26] 黄永皓,江健健, 孟远景, 等. 电能平衡与辅助服务的辅助手段—期权. 电力系统自动化, 2004, 28(5):11-15
[27] 王勇,钟志勇,文福拴,等. 发电装机容量市场适当价格水平的确定. 电力系统自动化, 2005, 29(9):5-10
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