基于可持续发展的我国电源结构优化研究
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摘要
电力资源是一种优质、高效、清洁、使用方便的二次能源,是我国能源结构的重要组成部分,是支撑国家经济发展的重要战略物资,也是提高人民生活水平最基本的物质基础。为了实现电力供需平衡、提高电能利用效率、节能降耗、提高能源利用效率和保护环境的目标,各国都将优化电源结构、充分利用可再生能源发电作为寻求经济和社会可持续发展的重要举措。优化电源结构要求电力必须与能源、经济、环境等要素协调发展,这也是电力工业可持续发展战略的必然要求。因此,在对电源结构进行优化研究时必须首先研究电力资源与国家经济发展、能源和环境承载力、科技水平等影响因素的关系,建立包括经济、环境、能源在内的复杂系统观,寻求电力与经济、环境和能源协调发展的规律,对影响电源结构优化的各个要素进行协调控制。
论文在对国内外研究动态进行归纳总结的基础上,基于可持续发展理论、系统科学、复杂性科学和政府规制理论的相关知识,从复杂系统层面构建了完整而可行的电源结构优化研究体系,主要内容包括：
一.电源复杂系统分析,从系统的角度将影响电源结构优化的主要影响因素归纳为电力供给、社会经济发展、能源供给和环境承载四个子系统,构成了电源复杂系统,通过各子系统间的相互作用机理分析为电源结构优化的研究寻求一个最佳的着眼点；
二.我国电力供需分析及电力需求量中期预测,从电力供需平衡、电力需求与经济增长的关系以及电能利用效率变化趋势及影响因素三个方面对我国电力供需现状进行了分析,并在此基础上对我国电力需求量进行了中期预测,从而为电源结构优化的研究奠定了基础；
三.电源类型分析,这是电源结构优化研究的前提。电源结构优化的一个重要目标是追求经济性,反映电源经济性的一个重要指标是供电成本,在对发电能源供给结构和利用效率进行分析的基础上,对主要电源类型的经济性进行了对比分析,并对主要影响因素进行了敏感性分析；
四.我国电源结构评价,这是电源结构优化研究的条件。通过我国电源结构评价的功能分析,指出电源结构评价的目的,并以电源复杂系统的构成要素为框架,构造了相对完整的评价指标体系,提出了基于模糊模式识别理论的评价方法,并对我国电源结构评价进行了实证分析；
五.电源结构综合优化,这是全文的核心所在。基于可持续发展,以电源复杂系统的构成和功能为参照,以经济性最优为目标,以电力供需平衡、节能环保等为约束条件,提出了基于经济性比较排序的电源结构综合优化模型,设计了算法流程,并对我国2010年及2014年电源结构优化和以黑龙江省为例的电源结构待建方案优化进行了实证分析;
六.政府规制措施和建议,针对我国电源结构的现状,基于可持续发展,依据产业组织理论,提出了经济性规制和社会性规制相结合的政府规制措施,为实现我国电源结构优化提供有益的决策支持和参考借鉴。
As a kind of high-quality, efficient, clean and easy to be used secondary energy, the electrical power energy is not only an important component in our country's energy structure, but also the important strategic material for supporting the national economic development and the most basic material foundation for improving the people's living standard. In order to realize the goals including the power supply-demand balance, increase of the power energy utilization efficiency, energy saving and energy consumption decrease as well as the environmental protection and so on, many countries have taken the power supply structure optimization and the full utilization of the reproducible energy as the important measure for the social and economic sustainable development. The power supply structure optimization requests the harmonious development among such essential factors as electric power, economy, energy and environment, which is also the inevitable requirement of sustainable development strategy for electric power industry. Therefore, regarding the research on the power supply structure optimization, the paper firstly studies the relations between the electric power energy and the main essential factores such as the national economic development, energy and environment carrying capacities, science and technology levels and so on, then sets up complex system thinking including economy, environment and energy, seeks the regular pattern for the harmonious development of electric power and economy, environment and energy, and carries on the harmonious control for each element affecting power supply structure optimization.
Based on the generalization and induction of the abroad and domestic recent research achievement, in compliance with the sustainable development theory as well as the relevant knowledges on the system science and the complexity science as well as the government regulation, on the level of the complex system, the paper sets up a complete and practical research system for the power supply structure optimization. The main conents include:
Firstly, the analysis of the power complex system. From the angle of the system, the main effect factors on the power supply structure optimization can be generalizd into four subsystem including the power supply, social and economic development, energy supply and environment earring subsystems, which can constitute power supply complex system. The analysis of the interacting mechanics among every sub-system can provide the best focus of attention for the study of the power supply structure optimization.
Secondly, Chinese electric power supply and demand analysis and forecasting of electric power demand, which is the basis of the power supply structure optimization. The basic target of realization of power supply structure optimization is to guarantee the balance of electric power supply and demand. In three respects of the balance of electrical power demand and supply, the relation between electrical power demand and economy increase as well as the electrical power utilization efficiency change trend and its effect factors, the paper makes a research on the actual situation of Chinese electrical power demand and supply and based on it, carries on a middle-term forecast on the Chinese electric power demand, thereby, sets up a firm foundation for the power supply structure optimization.
Thirdly, the analysis of power supply types, which is the prerequisite for the power supply structure optimization. One of the important goals for the power supply structure optimization is to seek the power economization. An important index for the power supply economization is the power supply cost. Based on the deep research on the power generation energy structure and the energy utilization efficiency, the paper makes a comparative analysis for some main power supply types and makes the relative sensitive analysis for the main effect factors.
Fourthly, the relevant appraisal of Chinese power structure, which are the conditions for the power supply structure optimization. With the view to the analysis of functions of Chinese power structure, the paper points out the purposes of power structure appraisal. By using the element composition of power supply complex system as the research frame, the paper sets up a comparatively complete appraisal index system, makes the empirical research on the Chinese power structure by using the method of fuzzy recognization theory-based appraisal and realizes the readability of the appraisal results.
Fifthly, the power structure comprehensive optimization, which is the core of the paper. Based on the sustainable development, with reference to the power supply complex system, by taking the minimum power supply cost as the optimization goal, the paper takes the main restrictions such as the environment protection, primary energy supply, the balance of power supply and demand and so on into the optimization models, proposes the optimization method, designs a calculation method and perform an empirical research on the Chinese power structure optimization as well as optimized selection of alternative power supply units plans by using the Heilongjiang province as an example..
Sixthly, government regulation methods and suggestions, which are the destination of the paper. In view of the actual situation of power supply structure optimization, with the goal of sustainable development, based on the industry organization method, with reference to the influence factors and interacting mechanics of the power supply complex system, the paper puts forward the government regulation methods and proposals, which can provide the beneficial decision supports and references for realization of the goals of the Chinese power supply structure optimization.
论文在对国内外研究动态进行归纳总结的基础上,基于可持续发展理论、系统科学、复杂性科学和政府规制理论的相关知识,从复杂系统层面构建了完整而可行的电源结构优化研究体系,主要内容包括：
一.电源复杂系统分析,从系统的角度将影响电源结构优化的主要影响因素归纳为电力供给、社会经济发展、能源供给和环境承载四个子系统,构成了电源复杂系统,通过各子系统间的相互作用机理分析为电源结构优化的研究寻求一个最佳的着眼点；
二.我国电力供需分析及电力需求量中期预测,从电力供需平衡、电力需求与经济增长的关系以及电能利用效率变化趋势及影响因素三个方面对我国电力供需现状进行了分析,并在此基础上对我国电力需求量进行了中期预测,从而为电源结构优化的研究奠定了基础；
三.电源类型分析,这是电源结构优化研究的前提。电源结构优化的一个重要目标是追求经济性,反映电源经济性的一个重要指标是供电成本,在对发电能源供给结构和利用效率进行分析的基础上,对主要电源类型的经济性进行了对比分析,并对主要影响因素进行了敏感性分析；
四.我国电源结构评价,这是电源结构优化研究的条件。通过我国电源结构评价的功能分析,指出电源结构评价的目的,并以电源复杂系统的构成要素为框架,构造了相对完整的评价指标体系,提出了基于模糊模式识别理论的评价方法,并对我国电源结构评价进行了实证分析；
五.电源结构综合优化,这是全文的核心所在。基于可持续发展,以电源复杂系统的构成和功能为参照,以经济性最优为目标,以电力供需平衡、节能环保等为约束条件,提出了基于经济性比较排序的电源结构综合优化模型,设计了算法流程,并对我国2010年及2014年电源结构优化和以黑龙江省为例的电源结构待建方案优化进行了实证分析;
六.政府规制措施和建议,针对我国电源结构的现状,基于可持续发展,依据产业组织理论,提出了经济性规制和社会性规制相结合的政府规制措施,为实现我国电源结构优化提供有益的决策支持和参考借鉴。
As a kind of high-quality, efficient, clean and easy to be used secondary energy, the electrical power energy is not only an important component in our country's energy structure, but also the important strategic material for supporting the national economic development and the most basic material foundation for improving the people's living standard. In order to realize the goals including the power supply-demand balance, increase of the power energy utilization efficiency, energy saving and energy consumption decrease as well as the environmental protection and so on, many countries have taken the power supply structure optimization and the full utilization of the reproducible energy as the important measure for the social and economic sustainable development. The power supply structure optimization requests the harmonious development among such essential factors as electric power, economy, energy and environment, which is also the inevitable requirement of sustainable development strategy for electric power industry. Therefore, regarding the research on the power supply structure optimization, the paper firstly studies the relations between the electric power energy and the main essential factores such as the national economic development, energy and environment carrying capacities, science and technology levels and so on, then sets up complex system thinking including economy, environment and energy, seeks the regular pattern for the harmonious development of electric power and economy, environment and energy, and carries on the harmonious control for each element affecting power supply structure optimization.
Based on the generalization and induction of the abroad and domestic recent research achievement, in compliance with the sustainable development theory as well as the relevant knowledges on the system science and the complexity science as well as the government regulation, on the level of the complex system, the paper sets up a complete and practical research system for the power supply structure optimization. The main conents include:
Firstly, the analysis of the power complex system. From the angle of the system, the main effect factors on the power supply structure optimization can be generalizd into four subsystem including the power supply, social and economic development, energy supply and environment earring subsystems, which can constitute power supply complex system. The analysis of the interacting mechanics among every sub-system can provide the best focus of attention for the study of the power supply structure optimization.
Secondly, Chinese electric power supply and demand analysis and forecasting of electric power demand, which is the basis of the power supply structure optimization. The basic target of realization of power supply structure optimization is to guarantee the balance of electric power supply and demand. In three respects of the balance of electrical power demand and supply, the relation between electrical power demand and economy increase as well as the electrical power utilization efficiency change trend and its effect factors, the paper makes a research on the actual situation of Chinese electrical power demand and supply and based on it, carries on a middle-term forecast on the Chinese electric power demand, thereby, sets up a firm foundation for the power supply structure optimization.
Thirdly, the analysis of power supply types, which is the prerequisite for the power supply structure optimization. One of the important goals for the power supply structure optimization is to seek the power economization. An important index for the power supply economization is the power supply cost. Based on the deep research on the power generation energy structure and the energy utilization efficiency, the paper makes a comparative analysis for some main power supply types and makes the relative sensitive analysis for the main effect factors.
Fourthly, the relevant appraisal of Chinese power structure, which are the conditions for the power supply structure optimization. With the view to the analysis of functions of Chinese power structure, the paper points out the purposes of power structure appraisal. By using the element composition of power supply complex system as the research frame, the paper sets up a comparatively complete appraisal index system, makes the empirical research on the Chinese power structure by using the method of fuzzy recognization theory-based appraisal and realizes the readability of the appraisal results.
Fifthly, the power structure comprehensive optimization, which is the core of the paper. Based on the sustainable development, with reference to the power supply complex system, by taking the minimum power supply cost as the optimization goal, the paper takes the main restrictions such as the environment protection, primary energy supply, the balance of power supply and demand and so on into the optimization models, proposes the optimization method, designs a calculation method and perform an empirical research on the Chinese power structure optimization as well as optimized selection of alternative power supply units plans by using the Heilongjiang province as an example..
Sixthly, government regulation methods and suggestions, which are the destination of the paper. In view of the actual situation of power supply structure optimization, with the goal of sustainable development, based on the industry organization method, with reference to the influence factors and interacting mechanics of the power supply complex system, the paper puts forward the government regulation methods and proposals, which can provide the beneficial decision supports and references for realization of the goals of the Chinese power supply structure optimization.
引文
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