集宁供电局配电网规划项目评价研究
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摘要
改革开放三十多年来,我国经济建设取得了举世瞩目的巨大成就。各项基础设施不断完善,人民生活水平不断提高。在我国经济建设取得巨大成就的同时,我国的电力事业也取得了长足的发展。电力行业是一国经济建设的基础行业,没有电力行业的发展,没有牢靠的电力基础设施和先进的电力技术,就会严重阻碍经济建设进一步发展和人民生活水平的提高。配电网络的建设是将电力安全可靠的输送到最终用户的重要保障。配电网络的规划建设是一个城市中供电企业的一项重要工作,为了获取最大的经济效益,配电网的规划既要保证电网的安全可靠,又要保证电网经济运行。本文以集宁市区的配电网规划为实证案例,在详细分析了集宁市电力来源、负荷分布及用电情况、中、低压配电网现状的基础上总结出其中、低压配电网存在的问题。通过对科学数据资料的分析整理,运用一元线性回归模型、指数模型和对数模型科学预测出集宁市在未来几年的电网负荷量,为该市区配电网的规划打下基础。接着本文遵照配电网规划的总体目标、总体思路,运用科学的规划改造技术方法,初步设计出集宁市区中、低压配电网的规划方案。最后,本文分别从项目规划的技术效益角度、经济效益角度和社会效益角度三个方面,分层次、分类别的对项目规划的整体方案作出了评价。评价结果显示:在技术效益方面,经过电网规划改造后,配电网在供电可靠性、电网结构、供电质量和设备可靠性等技术方面带来全面的提升,可以取得很好的技术效益;在经济效益方面,虽然从项目本身的财务指标来看,此项目不盈利,但是供电企业作为社会基础建设的重要组成部分,在其充分履行社会职能的同时会产生无法估量的社会效益;而在社会效益评价方面,配电网的重新规划,可以在很大程度上增加用户、行业的经济收益、提高用户满意度、改善行业的综合效益、拉动当地经济的发展、减少环境污染、美化城市、改善城市投资环境。
Reform and opening up more than 30 years, China's economic construction has achieved remarkable tremendous achievements. The improving infrastructure and continuously improve people's living level. In our country's economic construction achievements of the electric power industry, China has made great progress. Electric power industry is the foundation of a country’s economic construction industry, power industry development, has no reliable electrical infrastructure and advanced technology, the power will be seriously hinder the further development of economic construction and improvement of people's living standard. The distribution network construction is safe and reliable electricity transmission to end users. The distribution network planning is a city in the power supply enterprise is an important work, in order to obtain the biggest economic benefits, the distribution network planning to ensure the safe and reliable network, and to ensure the economic operation of the power grid. Based on JiNing urban distribution network planning for empirical case are analyzed in detail, in JiNing power source and load distribution and power, and low voltage distribution network based on the present situation of low voltage distribution network, summed up these problems. Through the analysis of scientific data, using linear regression model, the index model and the logarithm model to predict JiNing municipal science in future years, for the power load obtained.after planning to lay the foundation. Then this follow the general goal of distribution network planning, overall thought and use of scientific planning and transformation method, preliminary design JiNing out of the city, and low voltage distribution network planning scheme. Finally, this paper respectively from the Angle of technical project planning, economic benefit and social benefit view Angle from three aspects, levels and the classification of project planning overall plan made evaluation. Evaluation results show that: the technical efficiency, after renovation, distribution network planning in the power supply reliability and quality of power supply and power grid structure, equipment reliability technology, can bring the comprehensive promotion has achieved very good technical benefit. In the economic aspect, although project itself from the financial indicators, the project not profit, but the power supply enterprise as a social foundation construction is the important component of its social functions at the same time fully fulfill will produce immeasurable social benefits, And in the social benefit evaluation, planning, distribution of can largely increase user, industry, improve the economic benefits, improve customer satisfaction, the comprehensive benefits, boosting the development of local economy and reducing environmental pollution and beautify cities, improve the city's investment environment.
Reform and opening up more than 30 years, China's economic construction has achieved remarkable tremendous achievements. The improving infrastructure and continuously improve people's living level. In our country's economic construction achievements of the electric power industry, China has made great progress. Electric power industry is the foundation of a country’s economic construction industry, power industry development, has no reliable electrical infrastructure and advanced technology, the power will be seriously hinder the further development of economic construction and improvement of people's living standard. The distribution network construction is safe and reliable electricity transmission to end users. The distribution network planning is a city in the power supply enterprise is an important work, in order to obtain the biggest economic benefits, the distribution network planning to ensure the safe and reliable network, and to ensure the economic operation of the power grid. Based on JiNing urban distribution network planning for empirical case are analyzed in detail, in JiNing power source and load distribution and power, and low voltage distribution network based on the present situation of low voltage distribution network, summed up these problems. Through the analysis of scientific data, using linear regression model, the index model and the logarithm model to predict JiNing municipal science in future years, for the power load obtained.after planning to lay the foundation. Then this follow the general goal of distribution network planning, overall thought and use of scientific planning and transformation method, preliminary design JiNing out of the city, and low voltage distribution network planning scheme. Finally, this paper respectively from the Angle of technical project planning, economic benefit and social benefit view Angle from three aspects, levels and the classification of project planning overall plan made evaluation. Evaluation results show that: the technical efficiency, after renovation, distribution network planning in the power supply reliability and quality of power supply and power grid structure, equipment reliability technology, can bring the comprehensive promotion has achieved very good technical benefit. In the economic aspect, although project itself from the financial indicators, the project not profit, but the power supply enterprise as a social foundation construction is the important component of its social functions at the same time fully fulfill will produce immeasurable social benefits, And in the social benefit evaluation, planning, distribution of can largely increase user, industry, improve the economic benefits, improve customer satisfaction, the comprehensive benefits, boosting the development of local economy and reducing environmental pollution and beautify cities, improve the city's investment environment.
引文
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[14]商艳.电力大客户业扩工程项目管理研究[D].镇江:江苏大学工商管理学院,2009
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[24]李穗平.新型导线在重庆电网改造中应用的经济性分析[D].重庆:重庆大学经济管理学院,2007
[25]王志忠.福山供电公司成网改造工程管理系统设计与实现[D].保定:华北电力大学工程学院,2008
[26]熊岗,陈章潮.灰色预测模型的缺陷和改进方法.系统工程.1992,(6):44-50
[27]满广磬.农村电网改造项目管理问题研究[D].济南:山东农业大学经济管理学院,2007
[28]侯清.电网改造对供电企业经济效益的影响分析及对策研究[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2004
[29]张志强.城乡电网改造项目进度管理研究[D].大连:大连理工大学管理学院,2005
[30]郭刚.城市电网改造工程效益分析与评价[D].大连:大连理工大学管理学院,2005
[31]马慧娟.提高煤矿高压电网运行的可靠性与经济性研究[D].郑州:河南理工大学经济管理学院,2009
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[36]陈通.宏微观经济学,天津:天津大学出版社,2003
[37]徐晶.配电网改造与近期规划[D].天津:天津大学管理学院,2007
[38]张志超.石河子10KV配电网优化规划的研究[D].石河子:石河子大学经济管理学院,2007
[39]刘宁.基于自动调节遗传算法的配电网可靠性规划[D].天津:天津大学管理与经济学部,2009
[40]谢瑞祥.城市配电网改造后的安全运行管理问题[J],江苏电机工程,2001,(4):10-17
[41]郭秀玲,张学晋,苑红霞.太原市中低压配电网改造思路[J],电力学报,1998,(4):31-39
[2]王晖.项目管理理论与方法体系研究[D].昆明:昆明理工大学经济管理学院,2004
[3]孙红星.邯郸城市电网改造方案经济效益和社会效益分析与评价[D].保定:华北电力大学经济管理学院,2001
[4]穆建超.FY公司设备管理信息化项目规划方案研究[D].西安:西北大学经济管理学院,2009
[5]刘景龙,张弘鹏.吉林省农村配电网改造的基本模式[J],吉林电力技术,1999,(3):34-38
[6]吴永光.项目管理中的项目规划研究—建筑工程规划[D].北京:对外经贸大学国际商学院,2003
[7]王丹.建设项目经济评价方法与参数,北京:中国计划出版社,1994
[8]温旺.唐山市曹妃甸工业区集中供热项目规划研究[D].天津:天津大学管理学院,2006
[9]史中浩.华北油田电网改造项目经济评价研究[D].天津:天津大学管理学院,2004
[10]康秋勇.城市配电网改造的一些技术要求[J],云南电力技术,2002,(2):22-26
[11]陶时伟.城市电网改造及优化规划的研究[D].重庆:重庆大学电气工程学院,2002
[12]彭新良.巴彦淖尔农垦地区配电网改造项目的研究[D].北京:华北电力大学管理学院,2008
[13]贺艳辉.配电网可靠性与经济性分析[D].济南:山东大学电气自动化学院,2008
[14]商艳.电力大客户业扩工程项目管理研究[D].镇江:江苏大学工商管理学院,2009
[15] Rahman,S.,Bhatnagar,R. An Exert System Based Algorithm for Short-term LoadForecast. IEEE Trans, 1988,PWRS-3,(2),pp.392-399
[16] P. K.Dash, A.C.Liew, S.Rahman. Fuzzy Neural Network and Fuzzy Ewpert System for Load Forecasting. IEE Proc. C, Vol.143,No.1, Jan. 1996
[17]王琳.确定电网规划和前期工作目标[J],华东电力报,2008,(5):33-39
[18]龚长春.辽河油田城区配电网改造可靠性及经济效益评估方法研究[D].沈阳:沈阳工业大学电气自动化学院,2008
[19] Barry Render Ralph M.Stair.Jr.Quantitative Analysis for Management. Newyork.Prentice Hall,Inc.1992:236-257
[20] Raymond Mcleod,Jr.George Schell. Management Information System. Washington,D.C.Potomac,1986:28-124
[21]刘晨晖.电力系统负荷预测理论与方法.哈尔滨工业大学出版社.哈尔滨,1987
[22]徐绳均.电力规划.水利电力出版社,北京,1993
[23]孙杰.基于单亲遗传算法的配电网络优化规划[D].保定:华北电力大学电气学院,2004
[24]李穗平.新型导线在重庆电网改造中应用的经济性分析[D].重庆:重庆大学经济管理学院,2007
[25]王志忠.福山供电公司成网改造工程管理系统设计与实现[D].保定:华北电力大学工程学院,2008
[26]熊岗,陈章潮.灰色预测模型的缺陷和改进方法.系统工程.1992,(6):44-50
[27]满广磬.农村电网改造项目管理问题研究[D].济南:山东农业大学经济管理学院,2007
[28]侯清.电网改造对供电企业经济效益的影响分析及对策研究[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2004
[29]张志强.城乡电网改造项目进度管理研究[D].大连:大连理工大学管理学院,2005
[30]郭刚.城市电网改造工程效益分析与评价[D].大连:大连理工大学管理学院,2005
[31]马慧娟.提高煤矿高压电网运行的可靠性与经济性研究[D].郑州:河南理工大学经济管理学院,2009
[32] Hsu Y Y,Chen J L.Distribution Planning Using Knowledge-Based Expert System.IEEE Trans on Power Delivery,1990,Vol.5 No 3:1514-1519
[33] S.Civanlar,J.J.Grainger,H.Yin,S.S.H.Lee.Distribution feeder reconfiguration for loss reduction.IEEET ransactionson Power Delivery.Volume3,No.3,July 1988
[34]周全仁.电网计算与程序设计.湖南:湖南科学技术出版社.1983
[35]傅家骥,吴贵生.技术经济学,北京:中国经济出版社.1987
[36]陈通.宏微观经济学,天津:天津大学出版社,2003
[37]徐晶.配电网改造与近期规划[D].天津:天津大学管理学院,2007
[38]张志超.石河子10KV配电网优化规划的研究[D].石河子:石河子大学经济管理学院,2007
[39]刘宁.基于自动调节遗传算法的配电网可靠性规划[D].天津:天津大学管理与经济学部,2009
[40]谢瑞祥.城市配电网改造后的安全运行管理问题[J],江苏电机工程,2001,(4):10-17
[41]郭秀玲,张学晋,苑红霞.太原市中低压配电网改造思路[J],电力学报,1998,(4):31-39