基于模糊影响图的电网项目工程造价风险评估
|
摘要
分析了国内外电网项目工程造价风险评估现状,并指出了传统的电网项目工程造价风险评估方法的不足。从风险的定义、要素、特点和度量方法出发,归纳总结了风险管理的流程。运用德尔菲法得出影响电网项目工程造价的风险因素。简单的阐述了传统的风险评估方法,如层次分析法、因子分析法、灰关联分析法、模糊综合评价方法和蒙特卡洛方法。重点介绍了基于模糊集合理论和影响图理论的模糊影响图方法,并给出了模糊影响图评估方法的数学思想。
鉴于风险分析中某些事件发生概率和关系概率两个重要参数确定时需借助专家主观判断,将模糊影响图理论运用到电网项目工程造价风险评估中,介绍了其基本原理和评估方法,建立了电网项目工程造价风险评估模型,并结合实例进行了评估。该方法成功地应用到电网项目工程造价风险分析中。虽然仅给出了该方法在电网项目工程风险评估中的应用,但其具有更广泛应用价值。
模糊影响图方法既能克服传统风险分析方法建模上的缺陷,又能克服工程背景下影响图结构中概率获取上的困难,是一种有较大应用前景的工程项目造价风险评估方法。考虑到工程项目的阶段性以及资金的时间价值,对于多阶段、具有超价值节点的模糊影响图方法尚有待于进一步研究。
The status of construction cost of power grid project is analyzed at home and abroad. Points out the shortages of traditional assessment methods of construction costs risk of power grid project. According to the definition, factors, characteristics and measuring methods of risks, summarizes the risk management process. Influencing factors of risks of construction costs of power grid project are got. Brief introduction of the traditional risk assessment methods, such as analytic hierarchy process, factors analysis, grey correlation analytical method, fuzzy comprehensive evolution method, and Monte Carlo method. Mainly introduces fuzzy influence diagram (FID) method based on fuzzy set theory and influence diagram theory, and presents the mathematical thinking of FID.
Considering the fuzzy characteristic of the two key inputs such as event happening probability and relation probability, the method induces fuzzy probability into FID to evaluate construction costs risk of power grid project, and the basic principles and evaluation method of FID were presented. An application of the presented method for evaluation of construction costs risk of power grid project. The method can be widely applicable although only power grid project is analyzed.
FID method not only can overcome the shortage of the traditional methods, but also overcome the difficulties of getting probability in engineering background. FID is a larger application prospect in assessment methods of construction cost risk. Considering the project phases and the value of money, FID with the multi-stage and super value node remains to be further research.
鉴于风险分析中某些事件发生概率和关系概率两个重要参数确定时需借助专家主观判断,将模糊影响图理论运用到电网项目工程造价风险评估中,介绍了其基本原理和评估方法,建立了电网项目工程造价风险评估模型,并结合实例进行了评估。该方法成功地应用到电网项目工程造价风险分析中。虽然仅给出了该方法在电网项目工程风险评估中的应用,但其具有更广泛应用价值。
模糊影响图方法既能克服传统风险分析方法建模上的缺陷,又能克服工程背景下影响图结构中概率获取上的困难,是一种有较大应用前景的工程项目造价风险评估方法。考虑到工程项目的阶段性以及资金的时间价值,对于多阶段、具有超价值节点的模糊影响图方法尚有待于进一步研究。
The status of construction cost of power grid project is analyzed at home and abroad. Points out the shortages of traditional assessment methods of construction costs risk of power grid project. According to the definition, factors, characteristics and measuring methods of risks, summarizes the risk management process. Influencing factors of risks of construction costs of power grid project are got. Brief introduction of the traditional risk assessment methods, such as analytic hierarchy process, factors analysis, grey correlation analytical method, fuzzy comprehensive evolution method, and Monte Carlo method. Mainly introduces fuzzy influence diagram (FID) method based on fuzzy set theory and influence diagram theory, and presents the mathematical thinking of FID.
Considering the fuzzy characteristic of the two key inputs such as event happening probability and relation probability, the method induces fuzzy probability into FID to evaluate construction costs risk of power grid project, and the basic principles and evaluation method of FID were presented. An application of the presented method for evaluation of construction costs risk of power grid project. The method can be widely applicable although only power grid project is analyzed.
FID method not only can overcome the shortage of the traditional methods, but also overcome the difficulties of getting probability in engineering background. FID is a larger application prospect in assessment methods of construction cost risk. Considering the project phases and the value of money, FID with the multi-stage and super value node remains to be further research.
引文
[1]Bosker D S. M. AbouRizk. Modeling Seheduling Uncertainty in Capital Construetion Project [C]. Winter Simulation Conferene, IEEE.2005.21
[2]Babic Darko Duki, Tamara Maric, Dubravka. Analysis of Duration and Cost Estimate of Construction Projeets Through Computer Simulation[C].29th Int.Conf.on Information Technology Interfaces,IEEE.2007.6
[3]Arocena Pablo. Cost and Quality Gains From Diversification and Vertieal Integrationin the Eleetrieity Industry [J]. A DEA Approach Energy Eeonomics. 2008,30(1):456-459
[4]Gwang-Hee Kim. Neural Network Model Incorporating a Genetic Algorithm in Estimating Construetion Cost [J]. Building and Environment.2004,39(4): 34-37
[5]李庆中.施工企业工程造价风险评估及应对策略研究[D].天津：天津大学,2007
[6]朱勇华,徐天群,周学良.工程造价风险分析中的组合分布模型[J].武汉大学学报(工学版).2003,24(2)：34-36
[7]李高扬,刘明广,吴育华.工程项目风险预测模型[J].统计与决策.2006,12(11)：12-15
[8]何明,黄莉.基于灰关联度的大型科研项目费用风险预测模型[J].工业技术经济.2007,24(5)：45-47
[9]雷碧涛,杨建,刘君健.基于模糊评估模型的公路工程造价风险研究[J].长沙铁道学院学报(社会科学版).2007.(12)
[10]张宇清.电网工程项目造价风险模拟仿真研究[D].北京：华北电力大学,2008
[11]葛朝晖.电网项目工程造价风险管理研究[D].保定：华北电力大学,2008
[12]刘金兰,韩文秀,李光泉.关于工程项目风险分析的模糊影响图方法[J].系统工程学报.1994,12(02)：78-80
[13]韩敏.火电工程项目投资风险管理研究[D].保定：华北电力大学,2008
[14]潘晓琳.基于模糊影响图方法的商业银行信用风险评估[J].重庆师范大学学报.2005,12(02)：80-84
[15]Basu Abhi. Practical Risk Analysis in Scheduling [M]. Aace-Itransactions-1998.1998.
[16]W Boehm B. Software risk management:Principles and practices [J]. IEEE Software.1991.(8).32-41
[17]ASokolowska. Models of Risk and Choice:Challenge or Danger[J]. Acta Psychologica.2000,104(3):67-69
[18]P Helm. Integrated risk management for natural and technological disasters[C]. Tephra.1996.15(1)
[19]邓华.电力项目投资风险分析及管理[D].北京：对外经济贸易大学,2000
[20]谷云.电网工程项目投标风险分析与对策研究[D].保定：华北电力大学,2008
[21]Yu Zuwei. Spatial Energy Market Risk Analysis Using the Semivariance Risk Measure [J]. Electrical Power and Energy System.2007,34 (29):600-608
[22]孙亚胜.模糊网络分析在海上风电项目风险评价中的应用[D].大连：大连理工大学,2008
[23]Thomas Hertz David B. and. Risk Analysis and its Application [M]. Chichester. John Wiley and Sons.1983.
[24]Santiago Medina Julian Moreno. Risk Evaluation in Colombian Electricity Market Using Fuzzy Logic [J]. Energy Economics.2007,30(29):999-1009
[25]黄宏伟,陈桂香.风险管理在降低地铁造价中的作用[J].现代隧道技术2003,24(05)：45-47
[26]周直.大型工程项目实施阶段风险分析与管理研究[D].上海：同济大学,2007
[27]杨芳.电网工程造价内部控制研究[D].北京：华北电力大学,2008
[28]周舒,曹庆.工程造价风险管理方法研究[D].重庆：重庆大学,2007
[29]郭仲伟.风险分析与决策[M].北京.机械工业出版社.1986.
[30]TL Saaty. The Analytic Hierarchy Process [M]. New York:McGraw-Hill, 1980
[31]赵焕臣,许树柏,和金生.层次分析法——种简易的新决策方法[M].北京科学出版社,1986：23-90
[32]Harshman R. Foundation of the PARAFAC procedure[C].model and conditions for an'Explanatory'multi-mode factor analysis.
[33]James Berger. Statistical decision theory and Bayesian analysis [M]. Springer-Verlag New York, In.1985.
[34]秦寿康.综合评价原理[M].北京：电子工业出版社,2003：30-100
[35]喻湘存,熊曙初.系统工程教程[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006：40-90
[36]胡翔.灰色关联度评价法在电网安全性评价中的应用[J].华东电力,2009,12(6)：50-54
[37]Cao Mingxia Dang Yaoguo. An improvement on calculation of absolute degree of grey incidence[C].Taipe.452-454
[38]Sifeng Liu. Generalizeddegree of grey incidence [C].Dalian.DMU Publishing House.1992
[39]Srdjevic Bojan. Combining different prioritization methods in the analytic hierarchy process synthesis [J]. Computer & Operations Research.2005.32. 1897-1919
[40]Feng Shan Li D. Xu.Decision support for fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of urban developmen[J]. Fuzzy Sets and System.1999,105(1-12):40-45
[41]Shi Kaiquan Cui Yuquan. Both-branch fuzzy decision and eneryption-authentication [J]. Science in China.2003,12(2):90-103
[42]A Baggio. Monte-Carlo localization for mobile sensor network[C]. Proc. of the2nd International Conference on Mobile Ad-hocand Sensor Networks.2006
[43]王斌.建设项目造价风险管理方法研究[D].武汉：华中科技大学,2006
[44]Zadeh L. A. Fuzzy sets [M]. Information and Control.1965,8(3)
[45]吴孟达,刘普寅.模糊理论及其应用[M].长沙：国防科技大学出版社,1998：39-90
[46]余建星,孟博,刘立名,王涛.模糊影响图在海洋工程项目风险分析中的应用[J].中国海上油气工程,2002,12(03)：30-34
[47]刘征驰,赖明勇,周堂,孙斌锋.基于影响图理论的供应链系统风险评估模型[J].软科学,2009,12(01)：56-58
[48]方学进.基于模糊影响图的隧道施工安全风险评价研究[D].重庆：重庆交通，2009
[49]史志富,刘海燕,张安,刘新学.基于影响图的UCAV编队对地攻击战术决策研究[J].系统工程与电子技术,2009,12(01)：34-38
[50]于睿箭,冯允成.影响图的基础理论和发展[J].北京航空航天大学学报,1994,24(04)：44-56
[51]肖盛燮,王平义.模糊数学在土木与水利工程中的应用[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2004：45-78
[52]林盛,蔺炜莹.利用模糊影响图方法进行管道风险评价[J].天津理工大学学报,2005,24(06)：45-56
[53]Shaehter.Probabilistie Inference and Influence Diagrams [J]. Operations Research.1988.36(4).588-604
[54]Shaehter R. D. Evaluating Influence[J]. Operation Research.1986.34(6). 871-882
[55]程铁信,王平,张伟波.模糊影响图评价算法的探讨[J].系统工程学报,2004,12(02)：34-40
[56]龚莲花.基于模糊影响图的基础设施项目融资风险研究[D].武汉：武汉理工大学,2006
[2]Babic Darko Duki, Tamara Maric, Dubravka. Analysis of Duration and Cost Estimate of Construction Projeets Through Computer Simulation[C].29th Int.Conf.on Information Technology Interfaces,IEEE.2007.6
[3]Arocena Pablo. Cost and Quality Gains From Diversification and Vertieal Integrationin the Eleetrieity Industry [J]. A DEA Approach Energy Eeonomics. 2008,30(1):456-459
[4]Gwang-Hee Kim. Neural Network Model Incorporating a Genetic Algorithm in Estimating Construetion Cost [J]. Building and Environment.2004,39(4): 34-37
[5]李庆中.施工企业工程造价风险评估及应对策略研究[D].天津：天津大学,2007
[6]朱勇华,徐天群,周学良.工程造价风险分析中的组合分布模型[J].武汉大学学报(工学版).2003,24(2)：34-36
[7]李高扬,刘明广,吴育华.工程项目风险预测模型[J].统计与决策.2006,12(11)：12-15
[8]何明,黄莉.基于灰关联度的大型科研项目费用风险预测模型[J].工业技术经济.2007,24(5)：45-47
[9]雷碧涛,杨建,刘君健.基于模糊评估模型的公路工程造价风险研究[J].长沙铁道学院学报(社会科学版).2007.(12)
[10]张宇清.电网工程项目造价风险模拟仿真研究[D].北京：华北电力大学,2008
[11]葛朝晖.电网项目工程造价风险管理研究[D].保定：华北电力大学,2008
[12]刘金兰,韩文秀,李光泉.关于工程项目风险分析的模糊影响图方法[J].系统工程学报.1994,12(02)：78-80
[13]韩敏.火电工程项目投资风险管理研究[D].保定：华北电力大学,2008
[14]潘晓琳.基于模糊影响图方法的商业银行信用风险评估[J].重庆师范大学学报.2005,12(02)：80-84
[15]Basu Abhi. Practical Risk Analysis in Scheduling [M]. Aace-Itransactions-1998.1998.
[16]W Boehm B. Software risk management:Principles and practices [J]. IEEE Software.1991.(8).32-41
[17]ASokolowska. Models of Risk and Choice:Challenge or Danger[J]. Acta Psychologica.2000,104(3):67-69
[18]P Helm. Integrated risk management for natural and technological disasters[C]. Tephra.1996.15(1)
[19]邓华.电力项目投资风险分析及管理[D].北京：对外经济贸易大学,2000
[20]谷云.电网工程项目投标风险分析与对策研究[D].保定：华北电力大学,2008
[21]Yu Zuwei. Spatial Energy Market Risk Analysis Using the Semivariance Risk Measure [J]. Electrical Power and Energy System.2007,34 (29):600-608
[22]孙亚胜.模糊网络分析在海上风电项目风险评价中的应用[D].大连：大连理工大学,2008
[23]Thomas Hertz David B. and. Risk Analysis and its Application [M]. Chichester. John Wiley and Sons.1983.
[24]Santiago Medina Julian Moreno. Risk Evaluation in Colombian Electricity Market Using Fuzzy Logic [J]. Energy Economics.2007,30(29):999-1009
[25]黄宏伟,陈桂香.风险管理在降低地铁造价中的作用[J].现代隧道技术2003,24(05)：45-47
[26]周直.大型工程项目实施阶段风险分析与管理研究[D].上海：同济大学,2007
[27]杨芳.电网工程造价内部控制研究[D].北京：华北电力大学,2008
[28]周舒,曹庆.工程造价风险管理方法研究[D].重庆：重庆大学,2007
[29]郭仲伟.风险分析与决策[M].北京.机械工业出版社.1986.
[30]TL Saaty. The Analytic Hierarchy Process [M]. New York:McGraw-Hill, 1980
[31]赵焕臣,许树柏,和金生.层次分析法——种简易的新决策方法[M].北京科学出版社,1986：23-90
[32]Harshman R. Foundation of the PARAFAC procedure[C].model and conditions for an'Explanatory'multi-mode factor analysis.
[33]James Berger. Statistical decision theory and Bayesian analysis [M]. Springer-Verlag New York, In.1985.
[34]秦寿康.综合评价原理[M].北京：电子工业出版社,2003：30-100
[35]喻湘存,熊曙初.系统工程教程[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006：40-90
[36]胡翔.灰色关联度评价法在电网安全性评价中的应用[J].华东电力,2009,12(6)：50-54
[37]Cao Mingxia Dang Yaoguo. An improvement on calculation of absolute degree of grey incidence[C].Taipe.452-454
[38]Sifeng Liu. Generalizeddegree of grey incidence [C].Dalian.DMU Publishing House.1992
[39]Srdjevic Bojan. Combining different prioritization methods in the analytic hierarchy process synthesis [J]. Computer & Operations Research.2005.32. 1897-1919
[40]Feng Shan Li D. Xu.Decision support for fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of urban developmen[J]. Fuzzy Sets and System.1999,105(1-12):40-45
[41]Shi Kaiquan Cui Yuquan. Both-branch fuzzy decision and eneryption-authentication [J]. Science in China.2003,12(2):90-103
[42]A Baggio. Monte-Carlo localization for mobile sensor network[C]. Proc. of the2nd International Conference on Mobile Ad-hocand Sensor Networks.2006
[43]王斌.建设项目造价风险管理方法研究[D].武汉：华中科技大学,2006
[44]Zadeh L. A. Fuzzy sets [M]. Information and Control.1965,8(3)
[45]吴孟达,刘普寅.模糊理论及其应用[M].长沙：国防科技大学出版社,1998：39-90
[46]余建星,孟博,刘立名,王涛.模糊影响图在海洋工程项目风险分析中的应用[J].中国海上油气工程,2002,12(03)：30-34
[47]刘征驰,赖明勇,周堂,孙斌锋.基于影响图理论的供应链系统风险评估模型[J].软科学,2009,12(01)：56-58
[48]方学进.基于模糊影响图的隧道施工安全风险评价研究[D].重庆：重庆交通，2009
[49]史志富,刘海燕,张安,刘新学.基于影响图的UCAV编队对地攻击战术决策研究[J].系统工程与电子技术,2009,12(01)：34-38
[50]于睿箭,冯允成.影响图的基础理论和发展[J].北京航空航天大学学报,1994,24(04)：44-56
[51]肖盛燮,王平义.模糊数学在土木与水利工程中的应用[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2004：45-78
[52]林盛,蔺炜莹.利用模糊影响图方法进行管道风险评价[J].天津理工大学学报,2005,24(06)：45-56
[53]Shaehter.Probabilistie Inference and Influence Diagrams [J]. Operations Research.1988.36(4).588-604
[54]Shaehter R. D. Evaluating Influence[J]. Operation Research.1986.34(6). 871-882
[55]程铁信,王平,张伟波.模糊影响图评价算法的探讨[J].系统工程学报,2004,12(02)：34-40
[56]龚莲花.基于模糊影响图的基础设施项目融资风险研究[D].武汉：武汉理工大学,2006