洪水资源化利用模式及风险分析
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摘要
本论文针对我国缺水地区的水资源短缺问题，开展洪水资源化利用模式及其风险分析研究。
论文结合河北省洋河水库实例，利用抬高水库汛限水位及地下水回灌两种途径，采用水库洪水优化调度与多目标风险分析相结合的方法，根据水库工程自然条件与安全运行情况等，拟定多个不同的汛限水位方案，建立水库洪水调度多目标动态规划模型，对过去多场不同频率的历史洪水过程进行优化调度，可得水库不同汛限水位～不同频率洪水～水库最大蓄洪量～水库最大下泄流量之间的关系曲线以及地下水回灌后地下水位增幅～回灌水量等变化关系。在此基础上参照近期海河流域水资源量的分配方案对洪水资源化可利用量进行分配，并计算其资源化利用效益。根据以上所得结果，建立了综合考虑入库洪水、水库安全运行、下泄洪水超下游地区防洪标准、下泄洪水减少导致下游生态环境用水破坏、地下水安全回灌以及资源化利用效益计算精度等不确定性因素的洪水资源化利用二维多目标风险分析和决策模型，并对不同水库汛限水位下的洪水资源化利用风险效益进行了计算，得出了不同频率入库洪水下的水库最优分期汛限水位方案。
Based on the problem of water resources the paper develops the research of method of flood utilization and its risk analysis.
The paper concludes the best flood utilization project of varied flood frequency and different period of time by deducing the volume, benefit and risk of flood utilization with
the method of theorizing flood control multi-objective dynamic programming model and groundwater balance model of downriver district and two dimension multi-objective risk analysis model which based on five factors-uncertain risk of upriver flood and reservoir controlling and calculative parameter of economic profit, probability risk of drainage beyond the safe mark of downriver and harmful to biology and environment. We can find several relations between any two factors such as the different flood limit lever of reservoir, the flood with different frequency, the biggest volume of store floodwate, the biggest rate of flow in the course of flood discharging. Appling to practice of Yanghe reservoir in Hebei province, the best project of limitative water line and the available volume, benefit and risk can be concluded. It is proved that the method the paper propositions is reasonable.
论文结合河北省洋河水库实例，利用抬高水库汛限水位及地下水回灌两种途径，采用水库洪水优化调度与多目标风险分析相结合的方法，根据水库工程自然条件与安全运行情况等，拟定多个不同的汛限水位方案，建立水库洪水调度多目标动态规划模型，对过去多场不同频率的历史洪水过程进行优化调度，可得水库不同汛限水位～不同频率洪水～水库最大蓄洪量～水库最大下泄流量之间的关系曲线以及地下水回灌后地下水位增幅～回灌水量等变化关系。在此基础上参照近期海河流域水资源量的分配方案对洪水资源化可利用量进行分配，并计算其资源化利用效益。根据以上所得结果，建立了综合考虑入库洪水、水库安全运行、下泄洪水超下游地区防洪标准、下泄洪水减少导致下游生态环境用水破坏、地下水安全回灌以及资源化利用效益计算精度等不确定性因素的洪水资源化利用二维多目标风险分析和决策模型，并对不同水库汛限水位下的洪水资源化利用风险效益进行了计算，得出了不同频率入库洪水下的水库最优分期汛限水位方案。
Based on the problem of water resources the paper develops the research of method of flood utilization and its risk analysis.
The paper concludes the best flood utilization project of varied flood frequency and different period of time by deducing the volume, benefit and risk of flood utilization with
the method of theorizing flood control multi-objective dynamic programming model and groundwater balance model of downriver district and two dimension multi-objective risk analysis model which based on five factors-uncertain risk of upriver flood and reservoir controlling and calculative parameter of economic profit, probability risk of drainage beyond the safe mark of downriver and harmful to biology and environment. We can find several relations between any two factors such as the different flood limit lever of reservoir, the flood with different frequency, the biggest volume of store floodwate, the biggest rate of flow in the course of flood discharging. Appling to practice of Yanghe reservoir in Hebei province, the best project of limitative water line and the available volume, benefit and risk can be concluded. It is proved that the method the paper propositions is reasonable.
引文
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[3] 吴湘婷，江京会，苏青．洪水风险管理和洪水资源化浅议．人民黄河．2002．4
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