我国西部地区生态移民小城镇化问题研究
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摘要
生态移民政策在我国西部地区已经实施二十余年,近年来其目标和任务从以前单纯的异地扶贫和因生态环境问题异地搬迁,已经转变为融入了生态、资源、环境、城镇化以及可持续发展等更多的利益诉求。越来越多的人口经济学者和人口资源与环境研究者将研究对象放在了西部地区生态移民和其城镇化问题之上。生态移民小城镇化的概念亦在研究过程中逐步清晰起来,即因原有生态环境遭到破坏或呈现脆弱趋势,无法承受并不适合人类生存发展或原有生态系统需要保护而进行的自愿或政府主导性异地移民,并通过这种方式使人口聚集、产业集聚、要素集聚,形成转变产业结构和就业多样性的新型小城镇模式,以求实现生态、社会与小城镇经济体共同协调发展的目标。
我国西都地区因地域、气候、环境、民族以及生产生活方式的不同,生态移民小城镇化必然会呈现出不一样的地域特征。显然,因地制宜和因人制宜的研究前提是研究这些不同地域的各项特征和生态移民小城镇化的各项影响因素；研究已有的生态移民城镇化效用也需要分地域进行研究,并需要将这一部分的研究结果和前者的影响因素进行对比、对照分析,最终得出因地制宜和因人制宜的理想解决途径；此外,生态移民城小镇化是一个不断连续的过程,它不仅体现在生态移民工程通常会以一批一批移民的方式跨时数年进行,而且移民小城镇化的主体——“人”是动态的有选择性的因素。因此,当地政府的政治诉求、移民者的利益选择以及投资企业的收益效用都会对整体生态移民小城镇化效果产生重要的影响。
首先是西部地区生态移民必要性和该地区人口特征分析。通常我国西部生态脆弱地区的生态环境恶化原因被归纳为自然环境的逐步恶化,如干燥、降雨变少、气候变化和风沙袭击；自然气候突发性灾害,如地震、泥石流、山体滑落和堰塞湖等；以及人为因素,如草原牧区的过渡放牧和山区的过渡砍伐。然而,经过笔者的研究分析,西部地区生态移民的必要性还存在更为重要的深层机理,它们才是生态脆弱和生态保护地区居民需要生态移民的根本所在。
研究结果表明,内蒙古自治区“双权一制”工作下达之后,草场开始实施家庭承包制度,牧民们用网围栏圈画起自己的草牧场。原本为明确产权制度、提高牧民生产力的举措,却因为在不了解草原生态系统和民族地区特征的情况下造成了一系列的后果。另一种导致内蒙古草原生态失衡的行为便是矿藏的开发；过渡放牧和超载养殖只是近30年来三江源地区草场植被率下降的一个侧面原因。由市场机制刺激的金矿开采和挖掘虫草行为才是该地区生态脆弱的主要原因；宁夏水利设施常年失修,导致老化断裂,失去了本应由的整体抗旱蓄水能力,导致宁夏地区干旱承载力持续下降。此外,宁夏地区科学灌溉的管理制度缺乏和群众科学节水、用水的意识淡薄也是原因之一除此之外,有限的植被被砍伐耕种农作物,土地含水量进一步减退,同时加重了农田灌溉的压力,形成严重的“供给不足无须需求夸大”的后果。贫瘠的土地产量极少,宁夏农村的壮年劳动力流失严重,纷纷外出打工以获取相对高一些的回报。这导致宁夏干旱地区农村田间劳动力锐减,放任农田、农作物和水利设施的维护和修缮。每遇旱期灌溉渠道不胜压力,抗旱救灾人员缺乏,致使农作物大量损失；西南部地区许多地方处于卡斯特地貌,包括贵州、广西、云南和四川部分地区。这些地区地震频发、山体滑落常见、土地流失严重、石质化趋势明显,耕种产量普遍偏低,资源困乏,从而导致居民贫困。
对西部地区人口结构基于统计数据分析之后发现,西部地区少数民族人口比重大,民族构成复杂,对开发投资产生一定的影响民族人口比重大,民族个数多,是西部地区在人口方面的基本特点。此外,虽然从数量上看,西部地区一些省区,例如四川、新疆、宁夏、陕西等人才密度并不很低,有些甚至超过全国平均水平,但是人才的结构不合理,缺乏开发建设所需的科技人才和优秀的管理人才,造成了西部人才的结构性短缺此外,西部地区人才的开发利用效率也很低,限制了人才的利用效率。
其次,在生态移民小城镇化过程中,移民搬迁是整个关节中最为重要的一环。目前我国实施的生态移民模式主要是政府动员型,但随着生态移民工程的进展,生态移民的主体——拟搬迁农牧户自身的意愿选择成为政府除自身诉求之外最大的考虑因素。本文使用演化博弈论的方法对农牧户生态移民搬迁策略选择进行考察。演化博弈论分析共有两个部分,分别是：农牧户和当地政府以及农牧户之间的策略选择博弈。分析得出,一方面,在开展生态移民工程时尽量减小因搬迁而导致的农牧户实物损失,加大给予生态移民土地流转或实物性损失的补贴,以及让拟搬迁农牧户看到因环境不断恶化而追加投入农业生产成本变得越来越高而促使他们选择生态移民。另一方面,如果第一批生态移民比较成功,原居住地的农牧户会逐渐发现因为邻居、亲友搬迁导致自身(家庭)减少的社会资本越来越多,基于从众心态和回复社会资本的考虑会选择生态移民。此外,在生态移民小城镇化实践中应当提升生态移民后农牧户劳务收入实现最大化的成功概率,同时因原居住地生态环境变化或生存境况变迁,农牧户采取传统生活、生产方式的劳务收入最大化成功概率越来越小时,也会促使他们选择生态移民策略。在对拟搬迁农牧户之间策略选择博弈分析中发现,在因生态移民而改变生产生活方式所造成的损失(负担)是搬迁后效用最大化(排除了100%成功概率)的0.4—0.6倍时,会出现一部人选择生态移民并定居在安置点或新城镇,而另一部分人会最终返乡。在不考虑当地政府强制移民搬迁情况下,生态移民成功搬迁定居的比重在50%左右。
再次,在对西部地区生态移民小城镇化效用分析中发现,草原地区生态移民小城镇化存在复杂的区域性问题。畜牧业产业化升级需要足够的资金支持,形成集约化的生产资料密集型生产,产业链中红利最多收益最大的一块应当适度出让给这些草原生态移民,让其成为真正的主人。
干旱地区生态移民对于提高贫困农民经济收入水平的作用非常大。从宁夏南部山区的移民情况来看,经济效益相对较好的仍然是固原和彭阳地区。由于该地区自然资源条件相对较好,加之近些年生态移民和退耕还林等政策的实施,明显改善了当地的生态环境,经济效益提高的较快。这说明经济效益的提高除了增加国家投入以外,还依赖于原来的经济基础和自然资源条件。
通过对自变量变化的分析过程中发现,西南地区生态移民城镇化后的外出务工收入在各个样本中高度显著为正,说明在长期一段时间以来,外出务工是支持移民农户家庭收入的主要部分,对家庭收入的增长起到了重要的作用。随着城市化进程的推进,外出务工的机会也将增多,也为农户外出增收提供了较大的平台和机会。非农经营收入是除打工外,对农户增收第二大的贡献因素,说明当今的社会发展,在农村多样化的收入结构是增收的前提和保证。非农经营正是农户利用自身的资源禀赋和条件,由一产向二三产业靠拢和转变的尝试,因此也带来西南地区生态移民家庭收入的明显增长。
对于西部地区生态移民小城镇化而言,西部地区农村户籍人口是连接农村和小城镇的纽带,更是带活小城镇产业集聚、人口集聚以及促使农村地区通过土地流转、产业升级、增加收入的核心因素。“人”的因素是西部地区生态移民小城镇化的关键。如何实现“人”的小城镇化是研究的重点。
西部地区生态移民小城镇化的核心不是将这些新城镇居民统一规划到第
三城市产业中去,这既不现实也无法真正实现该地区的可持续发展。应当借助生态移民到城镇后的集聚化、产业化可能性的优势,盘活新城镇居民择业、就业可能性的诸多选择,将小城镇与农村地区有效而灵活地连接起来,基于第一产业对农牧产品进行开发种植、加工、交易、物流,建立产业链上中下游配套完善,让原有农户根据自身优势和意愿进行就业选择,以主人翁的角色投入到新城镇与农村种植、养殖基地合力建设中,最终实现借城镇化东风盘活西部地区农村——小城镇一体化产业群,使通过生态移民进入小城镇的居民成为新型农业——产业者。生态移民小城镇化就是要把农业产业化、新型小城镇化作为一个整体,统筹谋划,促进生态移民城乡一体化。在培养能力、扶持产业、增进市场信息流通、政策扶持、维护生态环境平衡、城乡社会事业进步,改变非城镇即农村的二元结构对立,逐步实现诸多生产要素在生态移民小城镇化中合理流动及优化组合,促使有效生产力在城镇与乡村之间合理分布,新型生态移民小城镇的经济和社会生活与乡村紧密联系、协调发展。此外,西部地区县域经济和小城镇基础建设发展过程中,长期存在公共财政投资薄弱甚至入不敷出的局面。根据政府和社会民营资本间合作的PPP模式,本文提出了西部地区小城镇基础设施建设中运用此模式的可能性。以实现在水电供给、交通运输、医院医疗、学校教育等领域,发挥政府规划、全程参与,社会民营资本建设、运作的合作互惠机制效用。在生态移民小城镇化案例分析中,本文选择了成都市龙泉驿区的案例。龙泉驿区当地政府解决需要投入巨大搬迁安置和城镇化福利资金的做法是,通过土地增减挂钩,由政府、农民和企业共同运作分享农民的土地级差。
最后,本文使用基于多代理的NetLogo生态模拟技术演化了一个小型生态移民城镇的仿真实验。通过干预改变新移民规模、流动人口数量、新移民收入、储蓄额、搬迁费用和土地价值等变量,基于多代理情景“涌现”理论,对生态移民小城镇化可能性发展结果进行一些分析。分析发现,生态移民新城镇在生态移民不断人口聚集、产业聚集的基础上,实现了土地价值和生产总值的提升,城镇基础建设和第三产业服务业在小城镇化进程中得到了明显的提高。但是,新移民之间收入差距也随着城镇化进程前进的脚步而变得不断扩大,导致了个人间资产(主要是储蓄和房产价值)差距逐步拉开。另外,小城镇基础性服务也出现了承载力不足的表现,在城镇近郊移民聚集区和近郊的移民安置点,电力、自来水和交通等基础性城镇服务相对严重不足。对于一个生态移民小城镇,这些区域显然不会成为人们长期安居的选择。一旦有能力,他们会搬迁至生活条件相对优越的地段生活。近郊移民聚集区和安置点很有可能会成为该城镇吸纳最新移民的“棚户区”或“城中村”,成为未来该城镇棚户区改造的重心。根据我国东、南部城市棚户区形成和近期改造的经验来看,西部地区生态移民小城镇化进程中难免会出现城镇内部“二元结构”的局面,成为日后改善群众居住条件、完善城镇功能、改善城镇环境的工作难点之一。
Eco-immigration policy has been implemented in China's western region more than twenty years, in recent years, its objectives and tasks from the previous simple remote poverty and environmental problems due to off-site relocation, has been transformed into into the ecology, resources, environme nt, and sustainable urbanization development of more interest demands. Mor e and more economists and population Population, Resources and Environme nt researchers on the study on the ecological migration in the western regio n and its urbanization problems. The concept of ecological migration of sma11towns in the research process also gradually clear up, that because of the original ecological environment has been destroyed or rendered fragile tren d, can not afford or are not fit for human survival and development and th e need to protect the existing ecosystem be voluntary or government leading off-site migration, and in this way so that population aggregation, industry concentration, concentration factors, changes in the industrial structure and t he formation of a new employment diversity patterns of small towns, in ord er to achieve population, resources, environment and economy of small tow ns jointly coordinated development target.
All areas of the West because of geography, climate, environment, lifes tyle and the production of different ethnic, ecological migrants bound small towns showing a different regional characteristics. Apparently, according to1ocal conditions, and the person should study the impact of the premise is t o study these different geographical and ecological characteristics of the sma11town of migration factors; study of existing ecological urbanization of ge ographical migration utility also needs to be studied, and the need factors af fecting this part of the research results and the former comparison, comparat ive analysis, the final results due to local conditions and an ideal way to re solve the person should; addition, the city town of ecological migration is a n ongoing continuous process, it is not only reflected in the ecological Migr ation is usually conducted in a few years time across a number of ways a group of immigrants, and immigrants small towns of the body-the "people " are dynamic selective factor. Therefore, the local government's political as pirations, interest income utility immigrant selection and investment compani es will have a significant impact on the overall ecological effect of small t owns immigrants.
The first is the necessity of ecological migration in the western region and demographic characteristics of the region. Environmental degradation oft en ecologically fragile areas of the western reasons summarized as the grad ual deterioration of the natural environment, such as dry, rainfall becomes1ess, climate change and dust storms; natural climate sudden disasters, such as earthquakes, landslides, mountain slide and damming Lake;, and human f actors, such as the transition of deforestation overgrazing grassland and mou ntains. However, after the author's research and analysis, the necessity of ec ological migrants in the western region, there are still more important under lying mechanism of their residents is fragile ecology and ecological protecti on areas fundamental to the ecological needs of immigrants.
The results show that, after the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region "d ouble right one system" work issued, the household contract responsibility s ystem implemented pasture, herders circle with fence painting from their ow n pasture. Originally a clear system of property rights, improve the producti vity of pastoral initiatives, but because without knowing the grassland ecosy stems of national and regional characteristics caused by a series of conseque nces. Another cause of the behavior of Inner Mongolia grassland ecological imbalance is mineral development; overgrazing and overload farming just th e past30years the rate of decline in the Three Rivers area of grassland ve getation one side causes. By the market mechanism to stimulate gold minin g and mining Cordyceps behavior is the main reason for the region's fragile ecology; Ningxia perennial water conservancy facilities in disrepair, leading to rupture of aging, losing the overall storage capacity by drought, leading to drought in Ningxia carrying capacity continued to decline. In addition, Ningxia irrigation management system lacks scientific and mass-saving scien ce, consciousness of water is one of the reasons for the weak. In addition, limited arable crops being felled vegetation, land further moisture loss, whil e irrigation increased the pressure, a serious "supply demand shortage witho ut exaggeration," the consequences. Yield very little barren land, the loss of prime labor force in rural areas of Ningxia serious, migrant workers have t o obtain relatively high returns. This resulted in arid regions of Ningxia rur al farm labor force dropped, letting farmland, crops and water conservancy facilities maintenance and repair. Yuhan numerous irrigation channels each o f the pressure, the lack of drought relief personnel, resulting in significant1oss of crops; many places in southwest Karst landform regions, including pa its of Guizhou, Guangxi, Yunnan and Sichuan. These earthquake-prone areas, mountain slipped common, serious soil erosion, stone trend evident, general ly low yield farming, resource sleepy, causing residents of poverty.
After analysis of the population structure in western region based on st atistical data found that, a significant minority of the population than in the western region, the ethnic composition of the complexity of the developme nt and investment have some impact than the major ethnic population, the n umber of multi-national, in the western region of the basic characteristics in terms of population. In addition, although in volume terms, some of the provinces in the western region, such as Sichuan, Xinjiang, Ningxia, Shaanx i and other personnel density is not very low, and some even more than th e national average, but the irrational structure of talent, lack of development and construction of the necessary iT personnel and excellent management p ersonnel, resulting in a structural shortage of talent in Western Moreover, ta lent development and utilization efficiency is very low in the western region, limiting the efficiency of talent.
Secondly, in the small town of ecological migration process, the entire joint relocation is the most important part. Currently China's implementation of ecological migration patterns mainly government mobilization type, but with the progress of ecological migration project, the main ecological migra nts-proposed relocation of farmers and herdsmen's own willingness to cho ose to become self-government in addition to the demands of the biggest co nsiderations. This article uses evolutionary game theory approach to the relo cation of farmers and herdsmen ecological migration strategy choice to insp ect. Evolutionary Game Theory has two parts, namely:Strategic herdsmen a nd local governments, and between farmers and herdsmen select game. Anal ysis of results, on the one hand, in the conduct of ecological migration proj ect to minimize losses due to the relocation of farmers and herdsmen in ki nd as a result of increase given to ecological land transfers or in-kind subsi dies to loss of migrants, and to allow the proposed relocation of farmers an d herdsmen saw due to the deteriorating environment and the additional inv estment in agricultural production costs become higher and prompted them t0choose ecological migration. On the other hand, if the first batch of succ essful ecological migrants, former residence of the farmers and herdsmen wi11gradually find because neighbors, relatives and friends led to the relocatio n of their (family) to reduce social capital more and more, based on herd mentality and restore social capital Consider ecological migrants will choose, In addition, the practice of ecological towns immigrants should enhance the ecological migration labor income of farmers and herdsmen to maximize th e probability of success achieved, but because the original ecological enviro nment change of residence or living situation changes, farmers and herdsme n take the traditional life, labor production methods more hours to maximiz e the probability of success of income, will encourage them to choose ecolo gical migration strategy. In the proposed relocation of farmers and herdsmen choose between strategy game analysis found that the loss of production d ue to ecological migrants lifestyle changes caused by (burden) is the relocat ion of utility maximization (excluding the100%probability of success) of0.4-0.6times, there will be an ecological migrants and people choose to settl e in the new settlements or towns, while another part will eventually return home. In the local government does not consider the case of forced relocat ion, ecological migrants to settle in the proportion of successful relocation o f around50%.
Again, in the western region of ecological migration utility analysis in small towns found that the presence of complex regional issues of ecologica1migration steppe region of small towns. Livestock industrial upgrading req uires adequate financial support, intensive form of production-intensive produ ction, industrial chain dividend income up to a maximum grant to these gra sslands should moderate ecological migration, allowed to become a true mas ter.
Ecological migration arid areas to enhance the role of economic incom e for poor farmers is very large. From the mountains of the southern Ningx ia immigration point of view, is still relatively good economic and Pengyan g Guyuan region. Because of the region's natural resources, relatively good condition, coupled with recent immigrants and returning farmland to forest e cology implementation of such policies, significantly improving the local env ironment, economic efficiency faster. This shows that in addition to improvi ng economic efficiency increase national investment, but also on the basis o f the original economic and natural resource conditions.
Through the analysis of the independent variables change, migrant inco me was highly significant positive in all samples Southwest ecological urban ization immigrants after explanation since long period of time, migrant work ers are the main part of the support for immigrant farm household income, household income growth plays an important role. With the urbanization pro cess, the opportunity will also be an increase in migrant workers, but also f or farmers to provide a larger platform and opportunity to go out income. Operating income is in addition to non-agricultural wage, the income of the farmer's second largest contributor, described today's social development, di versified revenue structure in rural areas is a prerequisite and guarantee inco me. It operates using its own non-farm households resource endowments an d conditions, by a change in the production and try to move closer to the secondary and tertiary industries, it also brings significant growth in the sou thwest region of ecological migration of household income.
For ecological migration small towns in the western region, the rural household population in the western region is connected to link rural and s mall towns, it is a small town with live industrial agglomeration, the conce ntration of population in rural areas and promote circulation through the Ian d, industrial upgrading and increasing revenue core factor."Human" factor i s the small town in the western region of ecological migration key. How to achieve "human" Urbanization is a small focus of the study.
Is not the core of ecological migration small town in the western regio a that unified planning the new urban residents to the second and third ind ustries to the city, which is neither realistic nor can not really achieve susta inable development in the region. It should help the ecological advantages o f the town after immigrating to the accumulation and industrialization possib ilities, make an inventory of new urban jobs, a lot of choice of employmen t possibilities, the small towns and rural areas effectively and flexibly conne cted, based on the first industries to agriculture product development, animal husbandry, cultivation, processing, trade, logistics, build the industrial chain downstream facilities, so that the original farmers according to their own st rengths and willingness employment options to the role of the new masters of urban and rural areas into cultivation, breeding base to help build, and ultimately revitalize the east by the town of West areas-small towns integ rated industrial group, so that ecological migrants entering through the small town residents to become new agricultural-industrial persons. Ecological migration is to take the small towns of the industrialization of agriculture, n ew small towns as a whole, overall planning, promotion of eco-rural integra tion of migrants. In training capacity to support the industry, increase the fl ow of market information, policy support, maintain ecological balance, caree r advancement and rural social change non-urban opposition that rural dual structure, and gradually realize the rational flow of factors of production in many ecological migrants in small towns and optimize the mix, promote the rational distribution of productive forces effectively between urban and rura1areas, small towns new eco immigrant economic and social life in close c ontact with the rural coordinated development. In addition, the western regio n of small towns and county economic infrastructure development, investme nt in long-term presence of weak public finances situation even make ends meet. According to PPP mode between the government and social cooperati on of private capital, the paper raised the possibility of a small urban infras tructure construction in the western region to use this mode. In the field of water and electricity supply in order to achieve, transportation, hospitals, h ealth care, schools and education, role of the government plan, full participa tion in the social construction of private capital, the effectiveness of the ope ration of the mechanism of mutual cooperation. In the small town of ecolog ical immigration case analysis, the paper chooses cases Longquanyi area. Lo ngquan District local government to solve the need to invest huge relocation and urbanization welfare fund approach is linked to changes by land, by t he government, farmers and businesses work together to share farmers' land differential.
Finally, using multi-agent-based simulation technology NetLogo ecologic al evolution of ecological migration simulation of a small town. New immig rants by changing the size of the intervention, the number of floating popul ation, new immigrants income, savings, relocation costs and land values and other variables, based on multi-agent scenario "emergence" theory, the poss ibility of the development of small towns to do some analysis results of ec ological migration. Analysis found a new town in the ecological migrants ec ological migrants continue to population centers, industrial cluster based on t he land value and enhance the realization of the GDP, urban infrastructure services and the tertiary industry was evident in the small urbanization proc ess improved. However, the income gap between the new immigrants but al so with the pace of progress of urbanization become expanding, leading to i nter-personal assets (primarily savings and property value) gap gradually ope ned. In addition, basic services of small towns also appeared insufficient be aring capacity performance, relative to a serious shortage in urban and subu rban suburban enclave of immigrant resettlement sites, electricity, water, and transportation and other basic urban services. For a small town ecological migrants, these areas will obviously not become long-term housing options. Once capable, they will move to the living conditions of relatively privilege d location of life. Suburban immigrant communities and settlements is likely to become the town to attract new immigrants "shanty town" or "city", be come the future transformation of the shanty town center. Recent experience in the formation and transformation of the term, ecological migration in th e western region of small urbanization will inevitably occur inside the town "dual structure" of the situation, according to China to become eastern and southern urban shantytowns in the future to improve the living conditions of the masses, improve the urban functions, One of the difficulties to impro ve the urban environment work.
我国西都地区因地域、气候、环境、民族以及生产生活方式的不同,生态移民小城镇化必然会呈现出不一样的地域特征。显然,因地制宜和因人制宜的研究前提是研究这些不同地域的各项特征和生态移民小城镇化的各项影响因素；研究已有的生态移民城镇化效用也需要分地域进行研究,并需要将这一部分的研究结果和前者的影响因素进行对比、对照分析,最终得出因地制宜和因人制宜的理想解决途径；此外,生态移民城小镇化是一个不断连续的过程,它不仅体现在生态移民工程通常会以一批一批移民的方式跨时数年进行,而且移民小城镇化的主体——“人”是动态的有选择性的因素。因此,当地政府的政治诉求、移民者的利益选择以及投资企业的收益效用都会对整体生态移民小城镇化效果产生重要的影响。
首先是西部地区生态移民必要性和该地区人口特征分析。通常我国西部生态脆弱地区的生态环境恶化原因被归纳为自然环境的逐步恶化,如干燥、降雨变少、气候变化和风沙袭击；自然气候突发性灾害,如地震、泥石流、山体滑落和堰塞湖等；以及人为因素,如草原牧区的过渡放牧和山区的过渡砍伐。然而,经过笔者的研究分析,西部地区生态移民的必要性还存在更为重要的深层机理,它们才是生态脆弱和生态保护地区居民需要生态移民的根本所在。
研究结果表明,内蒙古自治区“双权一制”工作下达之后,草场开始实施家庭承包制度,牧民们用网围栏圈画起自己的草牧场。原本为明确产权制度、提高牧民生产力的举措,却因为在不了解草原生态系统和民族地区特征的情况下造成了一系列的后果。另一种导致内蒙古草原生态失衡的行为便是矿藏的开发；过渡放牧和超载养殖只是近30年来三江源地区草场植被率下降的一个侧面原因。由市场机制刺激的金矿开采和挖掘虫草行为才是该地区生态脆弱的主要原因；宁夏水利设施常年失修,导致老化断裂,失去了本应由的整体抗旱蓄水能力,导致宁夏地区干旱承载力持续下降。此外,宁夏地区科学灌溉的管理制度缺乏和群众科学节水、用水的意识淡薄也是原因之一除此之外,有限的植被被砍伐耕种农作物,土地含水量进一步减退,同时加重了农田灌溉的压力,形成严重的“供给不足无须需求夸大”的后果。贫瘠的土地产量极少,宁夏农村的壮年劳动力流失严重,纷纷外出打工以获取相对高一些的回报。这导致宁夏干旱地区农村田间劳动力锐减,放任农田、农作物和水利设施的维护和修缮。每遇旱期灌溉渠道不胜压力,抗旱救灾人员缺乏,致使农作物大量损失；西南部地区许多地方处于卡斯特地貌,包括贵州、广西、云南和四川部分地区。这些地区地震频发、山体滑落常见、土地流失严重、石质化趋势明显,耕种产量普遍偏低,资源困乏,从而导致居民贫困。
对西部地区人口结构基于统计数据分析之后发现,西部地区少数民族人口比重大,民族构成复杂,对开发投资产生一定的影响民族人口比重大,民族个数多,是西部地区在人口方面的基本特点。此外,虽然从数量上看,西部地区一些省区,例如四川、新疆、宁夏、陕西等人才密度并不很低,有些甚至超过全国平均水平,但是人才的结构不合理,缺乏开发建设所需的科技人才和优秀的管理人才,造成了西部人才的结构性短缺此外,西部地区人才的开发利用效率也很低,限制了人才的利用效率。
其次,在生态移民小城镇化过程中,移民搬迁是整个关节中最为重要的一环。目前我国实施的生态移民模式主要是政府动员型,但随着生态移民工程的进展,生态移民的主体——拟搬迁农牧户自身的意愿选择成为政府除自身诉求之外最大的考虑因素。本文使用演化博弈论的方法对农牧户生态移民搬迁策略选择进行考察。演化博弈论分析共有两个部分,分别是：农牧户和当地政府以及农牧户之间的策略选择博弈。分析得出,一方面,在开展生态移民工程时尽量减小因搬迁而导致的农牧户实物损失,加大给予生态移民土地流转或实物性损失的补贴,以及让拟搬迁农牧户看到因环境不断恶化而追加投入农业生产成本变得越来越高而促使他们选择生态移民。另一方面,如果第一批生态移民比较成功,原居住地的农牧户会逐渐发现因为邻居、亲友搬迁导致自身(家庭)减少的社会资本越来越多,基于从众心态和回复社会资本的考虑会选择生态移民。此外,在生态移民小城镇化实践中应当提升生态移民后农牧户劳务收入实现最大化的成功概率,同时因原居住地生态环境变化或生存境况变迁,农牧户采取传统生活、生产方式的劳务收入最大化成功概率越来越小时,也会促使他们选择生态移民策略。在对拟搬迁农牧户之间策略选择博弈分析中发现,在因生态移民而改变生产生活方式所造成的损失(负担)是搬迁后效用最大化(排除了100%成功概率)的0.4—0.6倍时,会出现一部人选择生态移民并定居在安置点或新城镇,而另一部分人会最终返乡。在不考虑当地政府强制移民搬迁情况下,生态移民成功搬迁定居的比重在50%左右。
再次,在对西部地区生态移民小城镇化效用分析中发现,草原地区生态移民小城镇化存在复杂的区域性问题。畜牧业产业化升级需要足够的资金支持,形成集约化的生产资料密集型生产,产业链中红利最多收益最大的一块应当适度出让给这些草原生态移民,让其成为真正的主人。
干旱地区生态移民对于提高贫困农民经济收入水平的作用非常大。从宁夏南部山区的移民情况来看,经济效益相对较好的仍然是固原和彭阳地区。由于该地区自然资源条件相对较好,加之近些年生态移民和退耕还林等政策的实施,明显改善了当地的生态环境,经济效益提高的较快。这说明经济效益的提高除了增加国家投入以外,还依赖于原来的经济基础和自然资源条件。
通过对自变量变化的分析过程中发现,西南地区生态移民城镇化后的外出务工收入在各个样本中高度显著为正,说明在长期一段时间以来,外出务工是支持移民农户家庭收入的主要部分,对家庭收入的增长起到了重要的作用。随着城市化进程的推进,外出务工的机会也将增多,也为农户外出增收提供了较大的平台和机会。非农经营收入是除打工外,对农户增收第二大的贡献因素,说明当今的社会发展,在农村多样化的收入结构是增收的前提和保证。非农经营正是农户利用自身的资源禀赋和条件,由一产向二三产业靠拢和转变的尝试,因此也带来西南地区生态移民家庭收入的明显增长。
对于西部地区生态移民小城镇化而言,西部地区农村户籍人口是连接农村和小城镇的纽带,更是带活小城镇产业集聚、人口集聚以及促使农村地区通过土地流转、产业升级、增加收入的核心因素。“人”的因素是西部地区生态移民小城镇化的关键。如何实现“人”的小城镇化是研究的重点。
西部地区生态移民小城镇化的核心不是将这些新城镇居民统一规划到第
三城市产业中去,这既不现实也无法真正实现该地区的可持续发展。应当借助生态移民到城镇后的集聚化、产业化可能性的优势,盘活新城镇居民择业、就业可能性的诸多选择,将小城镇与农村地区有效而灵活地连接起来,基于第一产业对农牧产品进行开发种植、加工、交易、物流,建立产业链上中下游配套完善,让原有农户根据自身优势和意愿进行就业选择,以主人翁的角色投入到新城镇与农村种植、养殖基地合力建设中,最终实现借城镇化东风盘活西部地区农村——小城镇一体化产业群,使通过生态移民进入小城镇的居民成为新型农业——产业者。生态移民小城镇化就是要把农业产业化、新型小城镇化作为一个整体,统筹谋划,促进生态移民城乡一体化。在培养能力、扶持产业、增进市场信息流通、政策扶持、维护生态环境平衡、城乡社会事业进步,改变非城镇即农村的二元结构对立,逐步实现诸多生产要素在生态移民小城镇化中合理流动及优化组合,促使有效生产力在城镇与乡村之间合理分布,新型生态移民小城镇的经济和社会生活与乡村紧密联系、协调发展。此外,西部地区县域经济和小城镇基础建设发展过程中,长期存在公共财政投资薄弱甚至入不敷出的局面。根据政府和社会民营资本间合作的PPP模式,本文提出了西部地区小城镇基础设施建设中运用此模式的可能性。以实现在水电供给、交通运输、医院医疗、学校教育等领域,发挥政府规划、全程参与,社会民营资本建设、运作的合作互惠机制效用。在生态移民小城镇化案例分析中,本文选择了成都市龙泉驿区的案例。龙泉驿区当地政府解决需要投入巨大搬迁安置和城镇化福利资金的做法是,通过土地增减挂钩,由政府、农民和企业共同运作分享农民的土地级差。
最后,本文使用基于多代理的NetLogo生态模拟技术演化了一个小型生态移民城镇的仿真实验。通过干预改变新移民规模、流动人口数量、新移民收入、储蓄额、搬迁费用和土地价值等变量,基于多代理情景“涌现”理论,对生态移民小城镇化可能性发展结果进行一些分析。分析发现,生态移民新城镇在生态移民不断人口聚集、产业聚集的基础上,实现了土地价值和生产总值的提升,城镇基础建设和第三产业服务业在小城镇化进程中得到了明显的提高。但是,新移民之间收入差距也随着城镇化进程前进的脚步而变得不断扩大,导致了个人间资产(主要是储蓄和房产价值)差距逐步拉开。另外,小城镇基础性服务也出现了承载力不足的表现,在城镇近郊移民聚集区和近郊的移民安置点,电力、自来水和交通等基础性城镇服务相对严重不足。对于一个生态移民小城镇,这些区域显然不会成为人们长期安居的选择。一旦有能力,他们会搬迁至生活条件相对优越的地段生活。近郊移民聚集区和安置点很有可能会成为该城镇吸纳最新移民的“棚户区”或“城中村”,成为未来该城镇棚户区改造的重心。根据我国东、南部城市棚户区形成和近期改造的经验来看,西部地区生态移民小城镇化进程中难免会出现城镇内部“二元结构”的局面,成为日后改善群众居住条件、完善城镇功能、改善城镇环境的工作难点之一。
Eco-immigration policy has been implemented in China's western region more than twenty years, in recent years, its objectives and tasks from the previous simple remote poverty and environmental problems due to off-site relocation, has been transformed into into the ecology, resources, environme nt, and sustainable urbanization development of more interest demands. Mor e and more economists and population Population, Resources and Environme nt researchers on the study on the ecological migration in the western regio n and its urbanization problems. The concept of ecological migration of sma11towns in the research process also gradually clear up, that because of the original ecological environment has been destroyed or rendered fragile tren d, can not afford or are not fit for human survival and development and th e need to protect the existing ecosystem be voluntary or government leading off-site migration, and in this way so that population aggregation, industry concentration, concentration factors, changes in the industrial structure and t he formation of a new employment diversity patterns of small towns, in ord er to achieve population, resources, environment and economy of small tow ns jointly coordinated development target.
All areas of the West because of geography, climate, environment, lifes tyle and the production of different ethnic, ecological migrants bound small towns showing a different regional characteristics. Apparently, according to1ocal conditions, and the person should study the impact of the premise is t o study these different geographical and ecological characteristics of the sma11town of migration factors; study of existing ecological urbanization of ge ographical migration utility also needs to be studied, and the need factors af fecting this part of the research results and the former comparison, comparat ive analysis, the final results due to local conditions and an ideal way to re solve the person should; addition, the city town of ecological migration is a n ongoing continuous process, it is not only reflected in the ecological Migr ation is usually conducted in a few years time across a number of ways a group of immigrants, and immigrants small towns of the body-the "people " are dynamic selective factor. Therefore, the local government's political as pirations, interest income utility immigrant selection and investment compani es will have a significant impact on the overall ecological effect of small t owns immigrants.
The first is the necessity of ecological migration in the western region and demographic characteristics of the region. Environmental degradation oft en ecologically fragile areas of the western reasons summarized as the grad ual deterioration of the natural environment, such as dry, rainfall becomes1ess, climate change and dust storms; natural climate sudden disasters, such as earthquakes, landslides, mountain slide and damming Lake;, and human f actors, such as the transition of deforestation overgrazing grassland and mou ntains. However, after the author's research and analysis, the necessity of ec ological migrants in the western region, there are still more important under lying mechanism of their residents is fragile ecology and ecological protecti on areas fundamental to the ecological needs of immigrants.
The results show that, after the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region "d ouble right one system" work issued, the household contract responsibility s ystem implemented pasture, herders circle with fence painting from their ow n pasture. Originally a clear system of property rights, improve the producti vity of pastoral initiatives, but because without knowing the grassland ecosy stems of national and regional characteristics caused by a series of conseque nces. Another cause of the behavior of Inner Mongolia grassland ecological imbalance is mineral development; overgrazing and overload farming just th e past30years the rate of decline in the Three Rivers area of grassland ve getation one side causes. By the market mechanism to stimulate gold minin g and mining Cordyceps behavior is the main reason for the region's fragile ecology; Ningxia perennial water conservancy facilities in disrepair, leading to rupture of aging, losing the overall storage capacity by drought, leading to drought in Ningxia carrying capacity continued to decline. In addition, Ningxia irrigation management system lacks scientific and mass-saving scien ce, consciousness of water is one of the reasons for the weak. In addition, limited arable crops being felled vegetation, land further moisture loss, whil e irrigation increased the pressure, a serious "supply demand shortage witho ut exaggeration," the consequences. Yield very little barren land, the loss of prime labor force in rural areas of Ningxia serious, migrant workers have t o obtain relatively high returns. This resulted in arid regions of Ningxia rur al farm labor force dropped, letting farmland, crops and water conservancy facilities maintenance and repair. Yuhan numerous irrigation channels each o f the pressure, the lack of drought relief personnel, resulting in significant1oss of crops; many places in southwest Karst landform regions, including pa its of Guizhou, Guangxi, Yunnan and Sichuan. These earthquake-prone areas, mountain slipped common, serious soil erosion, stone trend evident, general ly low yield farming, resource sleepy, causing residents of poverty.
After analysis of the population structure in western region based on st atistical data found that, a significant minority of the population than in the western region, the ethnic composition of the complexity of the developme nt and investment have some impact than the major ethnic population, the n umber of multi-national, in the western region of the basic characteristics in terms of population. In addition, although in volume terms, some of the provinces in the western region, such as Sichuan, Xinjiang, Ningxia, Shaanx i and other personnel density is not very low, and some even more than th e national average, but the irrational structure of talent, lack of development and construction of the necessary iT personnel and excellent management p ersonnel, resulting in a structural shortage of talent in Western Moreover, ta lent development and utilization efficiency is very low in the western region, limiting the efficiency of talent.
Secondly, in the small town of ecological migration process, the entire joint relocation is the most important part. Currently China's implementation of ecological migration patterns mainly government mobilization type, but with the progress of ecological migration project, the main ecological migra nts-proposed relocation of farmers and herdsmen's own willingness to cho ose to become self-government in addition to the demands of the biggest co nsiderations. This article uses evolutionary game theory approach to the relo cation of farmers and herdsmen ecological migration strategy choice to insp ect. Evolutionary Game Theory has two parts, namely:Strategic herdsmen a nd local governments, and between farmers and herdsmen select game. Anal ysis of results, on the one hand, in the conduct of ecological migration proj ect to minimize losses due to the relocation of farmers and herdsmen in ki nd as a result of increase given to ecological land transfers or in-kind subsi dies to loss of migrants, and to allow the proposed relocation of farmers an d herdsmen saw due to the deteriorating environment and the additional inv estment in agricultural production costs become higher and prompted them t0choose ecological migration. On the other hand, if the first batch of succ essful ecological migrants, former residence of the farmers and herdsmen wi11gradually find because neighbors, relatives and friends led to the relocatio n of their (family) to reduce social capital more and more, based on herd mentality and restore social capital Consider ecological migrants will choose, In addition, the practice of ecological towns immigrants should enhance the ecological migration labor income of farmers and herdsmen to maximize th e probability of success achieved, but because the original ecological enviro nment change of residence or living situation changes, farmers and herdsme n take the traditional life, labor production methods more hours to maximiz e the probability of success of income, will encourage them to choose ecolo gical migration strategy. In the proposed relocation of farmers and herdsmen choose between strategy game analysis found that the loss of production d ue to ecological migrants lifestyle changes caused by (burden) is the relocat ion of utility maximization (excluding the100%probability of success) of0.4-0.6times, there will be an ecological migrants and people choose to settl e in the new settlements or towns, while another part will eventually return home. In the local government does not consider the case of forced relocat ion, ecological migrants to settle in the proportion of successful relocation o f around50%.
Again, in the western region of ecological migration utility analysis in small towns found that the presence of complex regional issues of ecologica1migration steppe region of small towns. Livestock industrial upgrading req uires adequate financial support, intensive form of production-intensive produ ction, industrial chain dividend income up to a maximum grant to these gra sslands should moderate ecological migration, allowed to become a true mas ter.
Ecological migration arid areas to enhance the role of economic incom e for poor farmers is very large. From the mountains of the southern Ningx ia immigration point of view, is still relatively good economic and Pengyan g Guyuan region. Because of the region's natural resources, relatively good condition, coupled with recent immigrants and returning farmland to forest e cology implementation of such policies, significantly improving the local env ironment, economic efficiency faster. This shows that in addition to improvi ng economic efficiency increase national investment, but also on the basis o f the original economic and natural resource conditions.
Through the analysis of the independent variables change, migrant inco me was highly significant positive in all samples Southwest ecological urban ization immigrants after explanation since long period of time, migrant work ers are the main part of the support for immigrant farm household income, household income growth plays an important role. With the urbanization pro cess, the opportunity will also be an increase in migrant workers, but also f or farmers to provide a larger platform and opportunity to go out income. Operating income is in addition to non-agricultural wage, the income of the farmer's second largest contributor, described today's social development, di versified revenue structure in rural areas is a prerequisite and guarantee inco me. It operates using its own non-farm households resource endowments an d conditions, by a change in the production and try to move closer to the secondary and tertiary industries, it also brings significant growth in the sou thwest region of ecological migration of household income.
For ecological migration small towns in the western region, the rural household population in the western region is connected to link rural and s mall towns, it is a small town with live industrial agglomeration, the conce ntration of population in rural areas and promote circulation through the Ian d, industrial upgrading and increasing revenue core factor."Human" factor i s the small town in the western region of ecological migration key. How to achieve "human" Urbanization is a small focus of the study.
Is not the core of ecological migration small town in the western regio a that unified planning the new urban residents to the second and third ind ustries to the city, which is neither realistic nor can not really achieve susta inable development in the region. It should help the ecological advantages o f the town after immigrating to the accumulation and industrialization possib ilities, make an inventory of new urban jobs, a lot of choice of employmen t possibilities, the small towns and rural areas effectively and flexibly conne cted, based on the first industries to agriculture product development, animal husbandry, cultivation, processing, trade, logistics, build the industrial chain downstream facilities, so that the original farmers according to their own st rengths and willingness employment options to the role of the new masters of urban and rural areas into cultivation, breeding base to help build, and ultimately revitalize the east by the town of West areas-small towns integ rated industrial group, so that ecological migrants entering through the small town residents to become new agricultural-industrial persons. Ecological migration is to take the small towns of the industrialization of agriculture, n ew small towns as a whole, overall planning, promotion of eco-rural integra tion of migrants. In training capacity to support the industry, increase the fl ow of market information, policy support, maintain ecological balance, caree r advancement and rural social change non-urban opposition that rural dual structure, and gradually realize the rational flow of factors of production in many ecological migrants in small towns and optimize the mix, promote the rational distribution of productive forces effectively between urban and rura1areas, small towns new eco immigrant economic and social life in close c ontact with the rural coordinated development. In addition, the western regio n of small towns and county economic infrastructure development, investme nt in long-term presence of weak public finances situation even make ends meet. According to PPP mode between the government and social cooperati on of private capital, the paper raised the possibility of a small urban infras tructure construction in the western region to use this mode. In the field of water and electricity supply in order to achieve, transportation, hospitals, h ealth care, schools and education, role of the government plan, full participa tion in the social construction of private capital, the effectiveness of the ope ration of the mechanism of mutual cooperation. In the small town of ecolog ical immigration case analysis, the paper chooses cases Longquanyi area. Lo ngquan District local government to solve the need to invest huge relocation and urbanization welfare fund approach is linked to changes by land, by t he government, farmers and businesses work together to share farmers' land differential.
Finally, using multi-agent-based simulation technology NetLogo ecologic al evolution of ecological migration simulation of a small town. New immig rants by changing the size of the intervention, the number of floating popul ation, new immigrants income, savings, relocation costs and land values and other variables, based on multi-agent scenario "emergence" theory, the poss ibility of the development of small towns to do some analysis results of ec ological migration. Analysis found a new town in the ecological migrants ec ological migrants continue to population centers, industrial cluster based on t he land value and enhance the realization of the GDP, urban infrastructure services and the tertiary industry was evident in the small urbanization proc ess improved. However, the income gap between the new immigrants but al so with the pace of progress of urbanization become expanding, leading to i nter-personal assets (primarily savings and property value) gap gradually ope ned. In addition, basic services of small towns also appeared insufficient be aring capacity performance, relative to a serious shortage in urban and subu rban suburban enclave of immigrant resettlement sites, electricity, water, and transportation and other basic urban services. For a small town ecological migrants, these areas will obviously not become long-term housing options. Once capable, they will move to the living conditions of relatively privilege d location of life. Suburban immigrant communities and settlements is likely to become the town to attract new immigrants "shanty town" or "city", be come the future transformation of the shanty town center. Recent experience in the formation and transformation of the term, ecological migration in th e western region of small urbanization will inevitably occur inside the town "dual structure" of the situation, according to China to become eastern and southern urban shantytowns in the future to improve the living conditions of the masses, improve the urban functions, One of the difficulties to impro ve the urban environment work.
引文
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2 参见2002年《关于进一步完善退耕还林政策措施的若干意见》：“为了加强生态保护和建设,要结合退耕还林工程开展生态移民、封山绿化。对居住在生态地位重要、生态环境脆弱、已丧失基本生存条件地区的人口实行生态移民。”
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2 笔者通过对中国学术期刊全文数据库(CNKI)近十年研究结果进行主题关键字查询统计得出。
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1 部分参考数据来自宁夏农业信息网http://www.nxny.gov.cn/structure/index.htm
2 《西南大早》,参考百度百科百科：http:/baike.baidu.com/picview/3375576/3375576/0/d872d69570959 87dd 0135e29.html#albumindex=0&picindex=0
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1 参考李锦.四川横断山区生态移民安置模式[J].贵州民族研究,2007(01)：64-70.
1 见香港乐施会历年环境报告。
2 “清华大学中国城镇化调查”是清华大学在2013年自恢复文科院系以来的首次大型全国性入户抽样调查,样本覆盖大陆地区31个省、直辖市、自治区。
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1 徐璋勇.西部蓝皮书：中国西部发展报告(2013)[M],北京.社科文献出版社.2013.07
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1 参考盛昭瀚等《社会科学计算实验基本教程》、《社会科学计算实验案例分析》,上海三联书店,2010.
1 模型版权信息De Leon, F.D., Felsen, M. and Wilensky, U. (2007). NetLogo Urban Suite-Tijuana Bordertowns model. http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/models/UrbanSuite-TijuanaBordertowns. Center for Connected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL. Wilensky, U. (1999). NetLogo. http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/. Center for Connected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL.
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