台风灾害下无车群体疏散需求预测与集散设施选址研究
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摘要
世界范围内台风灾害频繁发生，呈现出数量逐年增多、强度增大、灾害影响范围增广的态势，对人类社会造成极大的经济损失。当台风灾害影响范围较大，并且存在较强的破坏性时，实施大规模应急疏散越来越多地成为科学防灾、主动避险的有效途径。台风灾害事件的紧迫性不仅要求疏散活动实现安全、低风险的目标，更要在有限的安全疏散时间内快速、高效地进行。为此以往的研究常常以疏散群体中占较大比例的有车群体，即机动车群体为研究对象研究高效的疏散策略。然而Katrina、Gustav和Ike等飓风灾害的疏散实践证明，弱势群体和无车群体的疏散效率才是制约台风灾害应急疏散活动成功与否的关键。由于无车群体涵盖人群类别较多，疏散中更需要疏散组织与运输支持，不同于机动车群体对于疏散交通管理策略的需求，因此如何最大限度地争取无车群体的利益，制定有效的台风灾害疏散组织方案，提高无车群体的应急疏散效率是应急管理领域亟待解决的前沿性课题。
台风灾害下的无车群体应急疏散是一个系统问题，为完成大规模无车群体的应急疏散活动，制定合理有效的疏散组织方案是根本，而科学的疏散组织方案，基本前提是对被疏散者疏散行为的理解。本文以“台风灾害下无车群体疏散行为分析→疏散需求预测→基于公共交通运输的无车群体集散设施选址方案的制定”为研究主线，首先对台风灾害下无车群体应急疏散领域涉及的基本问题进行阐述，从引发大规模应急疏散的台风灾害条件、无车群体应急疏散的对象、疏散范围、疏散方式、以及疏散时间等方面对文中的研究对象和研究背景进行界定；为了验证无车群体应急疏散行为的客观存在，开展了台风灾害条件下疏散行为调查，为行为研究、疏散需求预测、集散设施选址等研究内容提供必要的数据支撑；其次从微观行为分析的角度，解析被疏散者最终疏散决策形成的机理，构建了基于有限理性和Probit回归理论的疏散风险容忍阈值模型，通过分析被疏散者在台风灾害条件下的风险承受能力，达到准确预测初始疏散需求的目的；再次针对被疏散者在应急条件下的特殊出行行为对疏散需求的影响，以其中最具有代表性的小群体集聚行为为研究对象，提出小群体疏散集聚地点选择模型，对集聚模式以及集聚行为造成的疏散需求预测结果进行重点分析；最后通过构建可靠的大规模集散设施选址与服务分配模型，提出基于公共车辆运输的无车群体疏散组织方案，在无车群体集散设施选址过程中着重考虑了无车人员在集散场所中等待并暴露在台风灾害环境中的风险，以寻求最优最为可靠的集散设施选址数量及位置、疏散服务分配、以及疏散车辆调度规划；最后以我国某一城市市区路网为例开展了台风灾害下无车群体应急疏散规划实例研究，在不同的疏散需求输入情况下，比较无车群体疏散集散设施选址及服务分配结果，针对疏散行为对最终选址结果的影响进行分析，最后为台风灾害下无车群体应急疏散管理实践提供了政策建议。
本文以国内外相关研究成果为基础，以调查统计、行为分析、优化建模为研究手段，对台风灾害条件下无车群体疏散过程中的关键问题进行深入挖掘与研究，在理论层面上具有一定的创新和承接意义，在实践应用层面对于提升城市应急管理实践的科学水平、提高城市及区域应对灾害事件的响应效率也具有重要的现实意义。
With the increasing frequency and intensity of typhoon disasters to human lives,the large scale emergency evacuation has already become an active and effectivemethod to avoid or decrease economy losses. Emergency evacuation is required to besafe, low risky, rapid, and high effective due to the urgency of typhoon disasters;therefore, most researches were mostly focused on automobile groups which are in themajority of evacuees to explore effective evacuation strategies. However, afterexperienced with hurricane Katrina, Gustav, and Ike, it was found that carless andvulnerable population is the key point that restricts the performance of a high effectiveemergency evacuation. Carless evacuees cover a great range of groups and put moreconcentration on evacuation organization and transportation support compared toautomobile evacuees. Therefore, how to make effective evacuation organization strategyand improve the carless evacuation efficiency is an important topic in emergencymanagement.
The carless emergency evacuation problem under typhoon disaster has to bestudied systematically, and a reasonable and effective organization strategy is thefoundation of a successful evacuation practice; while capturing and understanding theevacuation behaviors of carless evacuees is the basic condition of making suchorganization strategy. In this study, it follows the roadmap of carless evacuationbehavior analysis, evacuation demand forecasting, and evacuation pickup facilitylocation design under typoon disasters.
Firstly, the basic problems of carless evacuation under typhoon conditions wereintroduced and the related evacuation problems studied in this paper are further defined,including typhoon conditions that trigger a large-scale emergency evacuation,evacuation groups, evacuation scope, evacuation modes, and evacuation periods. It wasfollowed by large scale emergency evacuation behavior analysis based on a Stated-Preference (SP) survey on evacuees' evacuation decisions so as to provide data supportfor the evacuation demand prediction and evacuation organization strategy studies.
Secondly, from the point of micro behavior analysis, the final evacuation decision-making mechanism was studied, and an evacuation risk tolerance threshold model wasgiven based on bounded rationality theory and Probit regression method. The risk- resistant capability of evacuee under typhoon disaster was analyzed to predict the exactoriginal evacuation demand.
Thirdly, based on small group evacuation gathering location chosen model,evacuee's group gathering behavior under typhoon conditions was targeted, and theeffect of group gathering behavior on the evacuation demand forcasting result wastypically analyzed.
Fourthly, a transit-based evacuation organization strategy was constructed, and areliable emergency facility location design model was proposed to determine theoptimal transit pickup facility locations, evacuee allocations, and evacuation vehicledispatching schedules, when facilities were subject to disruption risks due to typhoondisasters. The waiting cost and exposure risks of carless people in the inclementsurroundings were systematically studied.
Finally, a case study of carless evacuation planning in a certain urban districtnetwork was conducted. The optimal pickup facility locations and service assignmentunder different evacuation demand inputs and different evacuation behaviors (especiallythe group gathering behavior of evacuees) were compared and analyzed. Based on theresearch results, the strategy proposals for emergency evacuation management practiceunder typhoon disasters were provided.
Based on the current research achievements in the carless evacuation field, thispaper deeply explored the key problems produced in the carless evacuation processunder typhoon disasters by adopting statistical methods, behavior analysis andoptimization theory. The research results not only can enrich the current emergencyevacuation management theory system, but also improve urban emergency practicecapability, crisis management capacity and the overall urban disaster response capacity,so this research has important theoretical significance and practical value.
台风灾害下的无车群体应急疏散是一个系统问题，为完成大规模无车群体的应急疏散活动，制定合理有效的疏散组织方案是根本，而科学的疏散组织方案，基本前提是对被疏散者疏散行为的理解。本文以“台风灾害下无车群体疏散行为分析→疏散需求预测→基于公共交通运输的无车群体集散设施选址方案的制定”为研究主线，首先对台风灾害下无车群体应急疏散领域涉及的基本问题进行阐述，从引发大规模应急疏散的台风灾害条件、无车群体应急疏散的对象、疏散范围、疏散方式、以及疏散时间等方面对文中的研究对象和研究背景进行界定；为了验证无车群体应急疏散行为的客观存在，开展了台风灾害条件下疏散行为调查，为行为研究、疏散需求预测、集散设施选址等研究内容提供必要的数据支撑；其次从微观行为分析的角度，解析被疏散者最终疏散决策形成的机理，构建了基于有限理性和Probit回归理论的疏散风险容忍阈值模型，通过分析被疏散者在台风灾害条件下的风险承受能力，达到准确预测初始疏散需求的目的；再次针对被疏散者在应急条件下的特殊出行行为对疏散需求的影响，以其中最具有代表性的小群体集聚行为为研究对象，提出小群体疏散集聚地点选择模型，对集聚模式以及集聚行为造成的疏散需求预测结果进行重点分析；最后通过构建可靠的大规模集散设施选址与服务分配模型，提出基于公共车辆运输的无车群体疏散组织方案，在无车群体集散设施选址过程中着重考虑了无车人员在集散场所中等待并暴露在台风灾害环境中的风险，以寻求最优最为可靠的集散设施选址数量及位置、疏散服务分配、以及疏散车辆调度规划；最后以我国某一城市市区路网为例开展了台风灾害下无车群体应急疏散规划实例研究，在不同的疏散需求输入情况下，比较无车群体疏散集散设施选址及服务分配结果，针对疏散行为对最终选址结果的影响进行分析，最后为台风灾害下无车群体应急疏散管理实践提供了政策建议。
本文以国内外相关研究成果为基础，以调查统计、行为分析、优化建模为研究手段，对台风灾害条件下无车群体疏散过程中的关键问题进行深入挖掘与研究，在理论层面上具有一定的创新和承接意义，在实践应用层面对于提升城市应急管理实践的科学水平、提高城市及区域应对灾害事件的响应效率也具有重要的现实意义。
With the increasing frequency and intensity of typhoon disasters to human lives,the large scale emergency evacuation has already become an active and effectivemethod to avoid or decrease economy losses. Emergency evacuation is required to besafe, low risky, rapid, and high effective due to the urgency of typhoon disasters;therefore, most researches were mostly focused on automobile groups which are in themajority of evacuees to explore effective evacuation strategies. However, afterexperienced with hurricane Katrina, Gustav, and Ike, it was found that carless andvulnerable population is the key point that restricts the performance of a high effectiveemergency evacuation. Carless evacuees cover a great range of groups and put moreconcentration on evacuation organization and transportation support compared toautomobile evacuees. Therefore, how to make effective evacuation organization strategyand improve the carless evacuation efficiency is an important topic in emergencymanagement.
The carless emergency evacuation problem under typhoon disaster has to bestudied systematically, and a reasonable and effective organization strategy is thefoundation of a successful evacuation practice; while capturing and understanding theevacuation behaviors of carless evacuees is the basic condition of making suchorganization strategy. In this study, it follows the roadmap of carless evacuationbehavior analysis, evacuation demand forecasting, and evacuation pickup facilitylocation design under typoon disasters.
Firstly, the basic problems of carless evacuation under typhoon conditions wereintroduced and the related evacuation problems studied in this paper are further defined,including typhoon conditions that trigger a large-scale emergency evacuation,evacuation groups, evacuation scope, evacuation modes, and evacuation periods. It wasfollowed by large scale emergency evacuation behavior analysis based on a Stated-Preference (SP) survey on evacuees' evacuation decisions so as to provide data supportfor the evacuation demand prediction and evacuation organization strategy studies.
Secondly, from the point of micro behavior analysis, the final evacuation decision-making mechanism was studied, and an evacuation risk tolerance threshold model wasgiven based on bounded rationality theory and Probit regression method. The risk- resistant capability of evacuee under typhoon disaster was analyzed to predict the exactoriginal evacuation demand.
Thirdly, based on small group evacuation gathering location chosen model,evacuee's group gathering behavior under typhoon conditions was targeted, and theeffect of group gathering behavior on the evacuation demand forcasting result wastypically analyzed.
Fourthly, a transit-based evacuation organization strategy was constructed, and areliable emergency facility location design model was proposed to determine theoptimal transit pickup facility locations, evacuee allocations, and evacuation vehicledispatching schedules, when facilities were subject to disruption risks due to typhoondisasters. The waiting cost and exposure risks of carless people in the inclementsurroundings were systematically studied.
Finally, a case study of carless evacuation planning in a certain urban districtnetwork was conducted. The optimal pickup facility locations and service assignmentunder different evacuation demand inputs and different evacuation behaviors (especiallythe group gathering behavior of evacuees) were compared and analyzed. Based on theresearch results, the strategy proposals for emergency evacuation management practiceunder typhoon disasters were provided.
Based on the current research achievements in the carless evacuation field, thispaper deeply explored the key problems produced in the carless evacuation processunder typhoon disasters by adopting statistical methods, behavior analysis andoptimization theory. The research results not only can enrich the current emergencyevacuation management theory system, but also improve urban emergency practicecapability, crisis management capacity and the overall urban disaster response capacity,so this research has important theoretical significance and practical value.
引文
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