西部农业现代化演进过程及机理研究
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摘要
本文是关于西部农业现代化演进过程及机理的实证研究。西部农业现代化滞后性问题长期困扰其经济、社会协调与可持续发展。尤其在“四化”同步时代背景下,西部农业现代化演进不仅整体脱节,而且在某些局部地区出现严重反差,反映了西部农业现代化演进过程的特殊性与复杂性。本研究关键问题是：西部农业现代化演进过程有何不同?哪些主要因素产生影响和如何影响西部农业现代化演进?研究目的有三：一是搭建一般理论分析框架,在理论层面揭示农业现代化演进“均衡”条件。二是刻画西部农业现代化演进过程,揭示其与农业现代化一般规律的差异及表现形式。三是实证西部农业现代化演进主要影响因子,解析西部农业现代化演进机理。论文研究思路：论文综合运用多种定性、定量方法与手段,系统刻画西部农业现代化演进过程及其差异性,解析西部农业现代化演进机理,并基于理论与实证结论提出推进西部农业现代化演进的主要途径与对策。
一、研究内容
①农业现代化演进的理论阐释。首先,对研究所涉及代表性、经典理论进行归纳、梳理与述评,将其作为研究理论主体基础和逻辑引申起点,以明确论文研究主攻方向和切入视角。其次,对农业现代化概念进行比较与理清,将其作为研究深入概念起点,并基于对世界几种主要农业现代化发展类型与模式认知与考究,建立农业现代化演进分析模型,以揭示农业现代化演进过程及其均衡条件。最后,在评析已有农业现代化量化分析指标与方法基础上,提出研究所筛选农业现代化核心指标和运用量化方法。
②西部农业现代化发展现状与综合测度。首先,从历史学角度,以政策梳理为主线,追根溯源,回顾了从计划经济时期、改革开放初期至经济全面转型时期,农业现代化发展历史变迁与轨迹,并对其进行简要评析。其次,从过程、结果两个维度,运用典型性、代表性单一量化指标,刻画西部农业现代化发展现状及主要成就。最后,基于单一指标分析局限性以及分析便宜性需要,进一步运用指标合成方法对单一指标进行合成与综合测度,为后文分析奠定基础。
③西部农业现代化演进比较与区域差异。基于指标合成与综合测度结果,从时序比较、横向比较、纵向比较等多层面比较分析,揭示西部农业现代化演进总体特点与区域差异,并在对未来农业现代化预测基础上,综合把握西部农业现代化演进趋势。
④西部农业现代化演进过程及其差异性。建立多种计量模型,从演进过程特征、演进状态及转移、演进阶段等三方面系统刻画西部农业现代化演进过程。并分别将其同农业现代化一般规律进行比较,以揭示西部农业现代化演进过程同一般规律的差异性及表现形式。最后分析西部农业现代化演进过程差异性的产生后果。
⑤西部农业现代化演进主要影响因子实证。基于理论分析框架,进一步拓展、梳理了农业现代化演进主要的内生和外生影响因子,并选择量化指标并设计实证分析模型。运用西部十二省份平衡面板数据,从空间计量和门槛计量的双重维度,检验了主要影响因子的影响方向、影响程度,并通过实证结果比较揭示西部农业现代化演进差异性的影响因子。
⑥西部农业现代化演进机理解析。基于影响因子作用方向,将西部农业现代化演进机理层次细分为动力机制、约束机制及保障机制三层面,以此全方位解析西部农业现代化演进机理。
⑦推动西部农业现代化演进的主要途径与对策。综合前文分析结果,提出推动西部演进的主要途径、政策操作思路及主要对策建议。
二、主要结论
①理论推演表明农业人力资本“临界”突破是农业现代化演进的关键。研究发现基于“劳动力异质性”假设的内生发展模型较新古典模型更适宜揭示农业现代化演进均衡条件。在内生框架下农业人力资本积累速度唯有跨越“临界值”才能推动农业现代化演进,过度强调农业物质资本积累会形成外部性“挤出效应”,使农业现代化演进过程受阻。这也表明农业现代化实践操作中,单纯以物质资本投入为侧重的“外延式”模式会使农业现代化演进预期目标偏离,产生适得其反效果。同时,理论推演也揭示在推动农业现代化演进过程中也不应将技术进步作为唯一内容,耕地面积变动、农业劳动力数量变化亦会影响农业人力资本积累逼近“均衡点”时间,进而影响农业现代化演进过程。
②样本区间内西部农业现代化演进速度在区域间和区域内差异突出。样本区间内西部农业现代化演进速度较快,以西部大开发战略实施为“分水岭”,西部农业现代化演进迈入快速“轨道”,存在着“台阶式”增长、速度非平稳性、增幅间断平衡性、政策反映敏感性等特点。但是,从横向比较来看,西部农业现代化演进速度慢于东中部地区乃至全国整体。从西部域内纵向比较来看,西部农业现代化演进结构性差别、不一致性、不平衡现象较为突出,西北地区农业现代化演进速度明显优于西南地区,这也昭示着其将成为西部农业现代化演进与“赶超”的结构性矛盾、亟待解决。从演进趋势来看,未来西部农业现代化演进速度波动性以及区域间差异性问题仍表现突出。
③西部农业现代化演进过程呈现“俱乐部收敛”特征,“两极分化”问题严峻。借鉴“收敛假说”思想,运用Sala-Ⅰ-Martin模型及非参数Kernel方法揭示西部农业现代化演进过程特征。研究发现：从中国层面来看,中国农业现代化演进过程呈现典型“俱乐部收敛”特征,这意味着西部、东中部地区会分别收敛于自身“稳态均衡”或者说西部与东中部地区“稳态”不同。长期来看,在区域间西部农业现代化演进“不平等性”并不会发生显著变化。这显然同农业现代化“绝对收敛”一般规律存在明显差异性。从区域内来看,西部各省份农业现代化演进也不会收敛于相同“稳态”,亦表现为显著“俱乐部收敛”,具体体现为“双峰状”-“单峰状”-“双峰状与三峰状交替循环”的“俱乐部收敛”类型。且由“主峰”与“波峰”间距可知,西部域内“两极分化”问题已十分严峻。
④西部农业现代化演进状态变迁与转换艰难且存在重复性。借鉴系统演进思想,运用马尔科夫链模型揭示西部农业现代化演进状态及其转移性。研究发现：在马尔可夫链概率转移矩阵中主对角线上概率较大。主对角线上的转移概率揭示了西部农业现代化演进状态内部“动态性”信息,主对角线上转移概率较大也就意味西部农业现代化演进状态间实现转移可能性或概率较小,演进状态变迁艰巨性、复杂性可想而知。同时,通过对比马尔科夫链“初始分布”与“稳态分布”可知,有的演进状态在“稳态分布”中所占比例相对“初始分布”占比有所下降,演进状态存在重复性,退化可能性较大,也有悖于农业现代化一般规律,差异性表现明显。
⑤西部农业现代化演进符合Logistic成长曲线式阶段规律但其差异性明显。样本区间内西部地区农业现代化演进符合Logistic成长曲线所描绘的阶段性规律,西部农业现代化已演进至Logistic成长曲线第一阶段,即“形成期”阶段。而中国和东部地区农业现代化已分别演进至“成长初期”阶段和“成长后期”阶段,比较发现西部农业现代化演进阶段规律存在明显差异性。此外,农业现代化、工业化和城镇化同步及其动态均衡亦是农业现代化演进一般规律。但西部农业现代化演进中却出现不同步、脱节及动态失衡的规律变异性。
⑥现阶段西部农业现代化演进是农业人力资本、农业比较优势、农业研究与发展、工业化、城镇化等利导因子相互制衡与联合驱动结果。实证结果揭示农业人力资本、农业比较优势、农业研究与发展、工业化、城镇化等与西部农业现代化演进之间存在显著正向效应,农业人力资本对西部农业现代化演进影响系数最大,其次为工业化,再之为城镇化。且各驱动因子影响存在“门槛效应”,跨越相应“门槛值”后边际影响效应亦不同。这说明西部农业现代化演进过程并不是单一“驱动力”所支撑的,而是上述几种“驱动力”相互联系、共同作用、相互制衡所形成的动力机制维系与联合驱动结果。
⑦农业分工、农业结构、信息化等构成的约束机制及制度保障机制缺失是阻滞西部农业现代化演进的深层次原因。其中,非农分工不完全引致农户“兼业化”,农业横向分工交易成本高使农业内合作缺失与新型农业经营主体缺位,农业产业链条中的“市场链”与“加工链”的“弱位”使纵向分工受阻,阻滞了西部农业现代化演进过程；农业“大而全、小而全”所形成的农业结构同质以及种植业结构调整中的“压粮扩经”削弱了西部农业现代化演进基础条件。西部信息产业发展滞后、信息基础设施和传播体系不健全、信息资源匮乏制约了信息化发挥“渗透效应”及其对农业现代化演进“引领”作用。此外,制度保障机制缺失,也在一定程度上强化了约束机制“负面效应”,阻滞了西部农业现代化演进过程。
三、创新之处
①运用数理模型揭示了农业现代化演进“均衡条件”。研究运用生产函数从新古典框架和内生发展框架“双重”视角探究并揭示了农业现代化演进过程与“均衡条件”,发现农业人力资本“临界值”突破是农业现代化演进关键,且实证印证与理论推演一致。这是已有研究鲜有涉及的,研究具有一定拓展性和新意。
②揭示了农业现代化一般规律在西部地区所呈现的差异性。研究借鉴“收敛假说”、系统演进思想及Logistic成长曲线,实证揭示西部农业现代化演进过程特征、演进状态变迁、演进阶段与农业现代化一般规律存在显著差异,弥补了现阶段学术界关于农业现代化自身研究止步于农业现代化测度的缺陷与不足。
③实证了西部农业现代化演进主要影响因子及其位序。研究从内生、外生两个层面拓展了影响西部农业现代化演进的主要因子,将农业人力资本、农业比较优势、农业研究与发展、农业结构、农业分工、城镇化、工业化、信息化、制度安排等变量予以实证。研究发现农业人力资本边际效应显著为正且最大,其次为工业化,再之为城镇化。研究弥补了现阶段关于农业现代化研究定性研究居多、定量研究稀缺,偶有定量研究也大多偏重“四化”关系描述的不足。
④尝试将新的科学方法引入研究并有所突破。在分析农业现代化演进过程时运用的Kernel核密度估计方法、马尔可夫链模型、Logistic成长曲线模型及其Levenberg-Marquardt估计方法都是同类研究不曾运用的。在实证西部农业现代化演进影响因子时运用了前沿的空间计量和门槛计量技术,也有助于克服传统计量方法局限性,具有一定新意。
This dissertation is an empirical study on the evolution process and mechanism of agricultural modernization in Western China. The harmony and sustainable development between economy and society has been long plagued by the lag issue of agricultural modernization in Western China. The evolution of agricultural modernization is not only disjointed on the whole, but there is a serious contrast in some local areas, reflecting the specificity and complexity of the evolution process of agricultural modernization in Western China. In this study, the key question is:What are the differences in the evolution process of agricultural modernization in Western China? What are the main impacting factors? And how do they affect the evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China? And the study purposes are: building a general theoretical framework to reveal the equilibrium conditions of agricultural modernization evolution by drawing on relevant theory; revealing the performance of variations of agricultural modernization's general law by portraying the evolution process of western agricultural modernization; empirically analyzing the major factors to resolve the mechanism of agricultural modernization in Western China. The research ideas of the dissertation is that, a variety of qualitative and quantitative analysis methods are used in this dissertation to portray the evolution process and differences, resolve the evolution mechanism, and based on the theoretical and empirical conclusions, the main way and countermeasures are proposed to promote the evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China.
1. The main contents
①The theoretical interpretation of the evolution of agricultural modernization. Firstly, the classical theory and related researches involved are summarized, sorted and commented, which is used as main basis of the theoretical and logical starting point for the study to clarify the main research direction and perspective. Secondly, the concept of agricultural modernization, as a starting point of further research, is compared and clarified. And based on cognitive and research of agricultural modernization types and models in the whole world, an analytical model is established to reveal the equilibrium conditions of the evolution of agricultural modernization. Finally, based on the comments of existing research, modernization indicators and quantitative methods are chosen.
②The development status and comprehensive measurement of agricultural modernization in Western China. Firstly, from the perspective of history and the main policy line, the track of agricultural modernization is recalled from the planned economy period, the beginning of reform and opening up period to overall economic transition period, and a brief comment is made. Secondly, some typical, representative single quantitative indicators are used to depict the status and main achievements of western agricultural modernization from the perspective of the process and results. Finally, based on the limitations of single indicator, indicators synthesis of single indicators is used to measure the development of agricultural modernization, laying foundation for text analysis.
③Comparative analysis and regional differences of the evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China. Based on the results of comprehensive measurement, the overall evolution features and regional differences are revealed by the timing comparison, horizontal comparison, and longitudinal comparison. And on the basis of predicting agriculture modernization in the future, the evolution trends of western agricultural modernization are grasped in order to form a preliminary understanding of the evolution of western agricultural modernization.
④The differences in the evolution process of agricultural modernization in Western China. A variety of econometric models are established to depict the evolution process of agricultural modernization in Western China from the evolution process characteristics, evolution status and transferring and evolution stage. By comparing them with general law of agricultural modernization respectively, differences and manifestations are revealed in the evolution process of agricultural modernization in Western China. Finally, consequences for the difference the evolution of the western agricultural modernization are analyzed.
⑤Empirical Analysis on the major factors affecting the evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China. Based on the theoretical analysis framework, factors affecting the evolution of western agricultural modernization are expanded from the aspects of both endogenous and exogenous. And then quantitative indicators are selected and the models are designed to make an empirical analysis. Based on balanced panel data of twelve provinces in western China, the impact direction and degree of major factors are examined by spatial and threshold econometrics. At last, by comparing the empirical results, the factors affecting the difference in the evolution process of agricultural modernization in Western China.
⑥The evolution mechanism of agricultural modernization in Western China. According to the direction of main factors, the mechanism has been subdivided into force mechanism, restraint mechanism and security mechanisms to resolve the evolution of the western agricultural modernization comprehensively.
⑦The main ways and countermeasures to promote the evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China. Based on comprehensive analysis of the text, the main ways, policy operational thinking and related countermeasures are proposed to promote the evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China.
2. The main conclusions
①Theoretical deduction shows that breakthrough of agricultural human capital "thresholds" is the key to agricultural modernization evolution. The study finds that the endogenous model based on "labor heterogeneity hypothesis" is more suitable than neoclassical model to reveal the equilibrium conditions of agricultural modernization evolution. Under the framework of endogenous model, the breakthrough of agricultural human capital "thresholds" is the key to agricultural modernization evolution. The accumulation of physical capital will lead to "crowding effect" if excessively emphasized, and will block the evolution process of agricultural modernization. This also shows that in the practical operation of agricultural modernization, the "epitaxial model" simply driven by physical capital investment may make the evolution of agricultural modernization targets deviate and lead to counterproductive effect. Meanwhile, the theoretical deduction also reveals that technological progress should not be consider as unique content in promoting the evolution process of agricultural modernization, changes in arable land and labor force will also affect the time of agricultural human capital arriving at "equilibrium point", thereby affecting the evolution process of agricultural modernization evolution.
②In the sample interval the evolution velocity differences of agricultural modernization in Western China are outstanding among and within regions. In the sample interval, the evolution velocity of western agricultural modernization is fast and after implementation of western development strategy as a "watershed", the evolution of western agricultural modernization sets foot on the fast "track". And it takes on the characteristics of "step growth", non-stationary speed and intermittent increase, sensitive to the policies and so on. But on the other hand, based on horizontal and vertical comparison, the evolution of western agricultural modernization is significantly slower between regions. The characteristics of internal structural differences, inconsistency, and imbalance are also more prominent within western regions. The evolution rate of northwest region is better than southwest region, which also shows that it will be the structural contradictions in catching up process of the evolution of western agricultural modernization and must be resolved. Meanwhile, from the evolution trend of the western agricultural modernization, the "fluctuations forward" and differences between regions will still more distinct in the future.
③The evolution process of agricultural modernization in Western China has "club convergence" feature and the "polarization" problem is serious."Convergence hypothesis", Sala-I-Martin model and Kernel nonparametric methods are applied to reveal process characteristics of agricultural modernization in Western China. From the perspective of China, the process characteristics of the evolution of agricultural modernization present a typical significant "club convergence", which means that the western region and eastern and central region will converge on their own "steady state equilibrium", that is, the "steady state" of the east, middle and the west is different. In the long run, the "inequality" of the evolution of western agricultural modernization will not change. It is clear that the process characteristics of agricultural modernization are inconsistent and contrary with the general law. At the same time, within regions the evolution of agricultural modernization among western provinces does not converge to the same "steady state", they also showed significant "club convergence", embodied as the character of "twin peak"-"single peak"-"bi-modal and tri-modal alternating" across the whole sample period. And from the distance between "peak" and "the crest", the polarization problem is still serious.
④The changes and conversions of the evolution state of agricultural modernization in Western China are difficult and repetitive. Based on system evolution thought and Markov Chain model, the changes and conversions of agricultural modernization evolution state are revealed. The study found that the probability of the Markov Chain transition probability matrix on the main diagonal is greater. Transition probabilities on the main diagonal reveal the "internal dynamic" conversion of evolution state of western agricultural modernization. The main diagonal transition probability is greater, which means the transition probability or probability is small, so you can imagine how difficult and complex the evolution state changes of western agricultural modernization are. And by comparing Markov Chain's "initial distribution" and "steady-state distribution", the relative proportion of some evolution state in "steady-state distribution" has declined comparing with the "initial distribution", the evolution state of existence repeatability and may degenerate, the variability is obvious.
⑤The evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China is in accordance with the "Logistic growth curve style" stage law and its differences are significant. In the sample interval, the evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China is in line with phased law depicted by Logistic growth curve. The evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China has evolved to the first phase of Logistic growth curve that is "formative stage", While China and eastern regions have evolved to the "early growth stage" and "post-growth stage". By comparison it can be found that the evolutionary stage of western agriculture is significant different. In addition, the synchronization and its dynamic equilibrium among agricultural modernization, industrialization and urbanization are also the general law. However, in the west, the evolution of agricultural modernization lag behind the evolution of industrialization and urbanization, the phenomenon of dynamic imbalance and disconnection are very prominent.
⑥The current evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China is balanced and joined by human capital in agriculture, agricultural comparative advantage, agricultural research and development, industrialization and urbanization.The empirical results reveal that human capital of agriculture, agricultural comparative advantage, agricultural research and development, industrialization, urbanization have significant positive effect on the evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China. Among them, the coefficient of human capital in agriculture is maximum, followed by industrialization and urbanization. There exists "threshold effect" of each driving factor, after crossing appropriate "threshold" the marginal effect is also different. This shows the evolution of western modernization of agriculture is not driven by single force, but driven by several driving forces that build up the dynamic mechanism of the evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China.
⑦The main reason of lagging problem in western agricultural modernization evolution is caused by the restricting mechanism composed of agriculture division, information technology and agriculture structure and the missing of institutional safeguards. Among them, farmers'"industrialization" formed by incomplete non-farm agricultural division, high transaction costs of agricultural traversing division leading to lacking agricultural cooperation and absence of new agricultural business entities and the disjointing of "market chain" and "processing chain" in the agricultural industry chain will arrest the evolution of western agricultural modernization. The homogeneity of agricultural structure homogeneity formed by "large and small" problem, the phenomenon of depressing food production to expand economic crop production in the planting structure adjustment will result in endowments departure and food security, which would weaken the basic condition of the evolution of western agricultural modernization. The backwardness of western information industry, the dissemination of information infrastructure system, inadequate dissemination system and scarce information resources restricted the "osmotic effect" and its influences on the evolution of western agricultural modernization. In addition, to some extent, the lacking of institutional safeguards strengthen the binding mechanism's "negative effect" and arrest the evolution of western agricultural modernization.
3. Innovation
①The "equilibrium" conditions of agricultural modernization evolution are revealed by mathematical models. With the production function, this paper discusses the conditions of agricultural modernization evolution impacted by two mechanisms, physical capital under neoclassical framework and human capital under the endogenous development framework. The theoretical deduction shows that breaking through thresholds of agricultural human capital accumulation is the key condition of agricultural modernization evolution, and the empirical analysis coincides the theoretical reasoning, which is rarely involved in previous studies. And it is supposed to be new from this point of view.
②The differences between the western agricultural modernization evolution and the general law are revealed. Referring to the "convergence hypothesis", system evolution thinking and Logistic growth curve, this paper comprehensively and empirically analyzes the differences between the western agricultural modernization evolution and the general law from evolution progress characteristic, evolution state transferring and evolution stage law. And this study makes up the flaws that most of current study focus on the estimation of agricultural modernization.
③The main factors and their influential rank of western agricultural modernization evolution are empirically analyzed. Based on the theoretical analysis framework, and from endogenous and exogenous two levels, the factors impacting evolution of agricultural modernization in western China mainly are agricultural human capital, agricultural comparative advantage, agricultural R&D, agricultural structures, agricultural division of labor, urbanization, industrialization, information technology, institutional arrangements and policy support, which are empirically analyzed in the model. The results show that, agricultural human capital has a significant positive effect with the largest coefficient, followed by industrialization and urbanization. This study, to some extent, makes up the shortage that more qualitative study and less quantitative study on the evolution of agricultural modernization.
④New scientific methods are applied to the study and make a breakthrough. The methods of Nonparametric Kernel Density Estimation, Markov Chain, Logistic Growth Curve Model and Levenberg Marquardt Estimation, which are never used in this field before, are used when analyzing the evolution progress of agricultural modernization. Moreover, when empirically analyzing the factors of agricultural modernization evolution in western China, the frontier and advanced methods like Spatial Econometrics and Threshold Measurement are applied to overcome the limitation of traditional econometrics methods, which may offer some new ideas.
一、研究内容
①农业现代化演进的理论阐释。首先,对研究所涉及代表性、经典理论进行归纳、梳理与述评,将其作为研究理论主体基础和逻辑引申起点,以明确论文研究主攻方向和切入视角。其次,对农业现代化概念进行比较与理清,将其作为研究深入概念起点,并基于对世界几种主要农业现代化发展类型与模式认知与考究,建立农业现代化演进分析模型,以揭示农业现代化演进过程及其均衡条件。最后,在评析已有农业现代化量化分析指标与方法基础上,提出研究所筛选农业现代化核心指标和运用量化方法。
②西部农业现代化发展现状与综合测度。首先,从历史学角度,以政策梳理为主线,追根溯源,回顾了从计划经济时期、改革开放初期至经济全面转型时期,农业现代化发展历史变迁与轨迹,并对其进行简要评析。其次,从过程、结果两个维度,运用典型性、代表性单一量化指标,刻画西部农业现代化发展现状及主要成就。最后,基于单一指标分析局限性以及分析便宜性需要,进一步运用指标合成方法对单一指标进行合成与综合测度,为后文分析奠定基础。
③西部农业现代化演进比较与区域差异。基于指标合成与综合测度结果,从时序比较、横向比较、纵向比较等多层面比较分析,揭示西部农业现代化演进总体特点与区域差异,并在对未来农业现代化预测基础上,综合把握西部农业现代化演进趋势。
④西部农业现代化演进过程及其差异性。建立多种计量模型,从演进过程特征、演进状态及转移、演进阶段等三方面系统刻画西部农业现代化演进过程。并分别将其同农业现代化一般规律进行比较,以揭示西部农业现代化演进过程同一般规律的差异性及表现形式。最后分析西部农业现代化演进过程差异性的产生后果。
⑤西部农业现代化演进主要影响因子实证。基于理论分析框架,进一步拓展、梳理了农业现代化演进主要的内生和外生影响因子,并选择量化指标并设计实证分析模型。运用西部十二省份平衡面板数据,从空间计量和门槛计量的双重维度,检验了主要影响因子的影响方向、影响程度,并通过实证结果比较揭示西部农业现代化演进差异性的影响因子。
⑥西部农业现代化演进机理解析。基于影响因子作用方向,将西部农业现代化演进机理层次细分为动力机制、约束机制及保障机制三层面,以此全方位解析西部农业现代化演进机理。
⑦推动西部农业现代化演进的主要途径与对策。综合前文分析结果,提出推动西部演进的主要途径、政策操作思路及主要对策建议。
二、主要结论
①理论推演表明农业人力资本“临界”突破是农业现代化演进的关键。研究发现基于“劳动力异质性”假设的内生发展模型较新古典模型更适宜揭示农业现代化演进均衡条件。在内生框架下农业人力资本积累速度唯有跨越“临界值”才能推动农业现代化演进,过度强调农业物质资本积累会形成外部性“挤出效应”,使农业现代化演进过程受阻。这也表明农业现代化实践操作中,单纯以物质资本投入为侧重的“外延式”模式会使农业现代化演进预期目标偏离,产生适得其反效果。同时,理论推演也揭示在推动农业现代化演进过程中也不应将技术进步作为唯一内容,耕地面积变动、农业劳动力数量变化亦会影响农业人力资本积累逼近“均衡点”时间,进而影响农业现代化演进过程。
②样本区间内西部农业现代化演进速度在区域间和区域内差异突出。样本区间内西部农业现代化演进速度较快,以西部大开发战略实施为“分水岭”,西部农业现代化演进迈入快速“轨道”,存在着“台阶式”增长、速度非平稳性、增幅间断平衡性、政策反映敏感性等特点。但是,从横向比较来看,西部农业现代化演进速度慢于东中部地区乃至全国整体。从西部域内纵向比较来看,西部农业现代化演进结构性差别、不一致性、不平衡现象较为突出,西北地区农业现代化演进速度明显优于西南地区,这也昭示着其将成为西部农业现代化演进与“赶超”的结构性矛盾、亟待解决。从演进趋势来看,未来西部农业现代化演进速度波动性以及区域间差异性问题仍表现突出。
③西部农业现代化演进过程呈现“俱乐部收敛”特征,“两极分化”问题严峻。借鉴“收敛假说”思想,运用Sala-Ⅰ-Martin模型及非参数Kernel方法揭示西部农业现代化演进过程特征。研究发现：从中国层面来看,中国农业现代化演进过程呈现典型“俱乐部收敛”特征,这意味着西部、东中部地区会分别收敛于自身“稳态均衡”或者说西部与东中部地区“稳态”不同。长期来看,在区域间西部农业现代化演进“不平等性”并不会发生显著变化。这显然同农业现代化“绝对收敛”一般规律存在明显差异性。从区域内来看,西部各省份农业现代化演进也不会收敛于相同“稳态”,亦表现为显著“俱乐部收敛”,具体体现为“双峰状”-“单峰状”-“双峰状与三峰状交替循环”的“俱乐部收敛”类型。且由“主峰”与“波峰”间距可知,西部域内“两极分化”问题已十分严峻。
④西部农业现代化演进状态变迁与转换艰难且存在重复性。借鉴系统演进思想,运用马尔科夫链模型揭示西部农业现代化演进状态及其转移性。研究发现：在马尔可夫链概率转移矩阵中主对角线上概率较大。主对角线上的转移概率揭示了西部农业现代化演进状态内部“动态性”信息,主对角线上转移概率较大也就意味西部农业现代化演进状态间实现转移可能性或概率较小,演进状态变迁艰巨性、复杂性可想而知。同时,通过对比马尔科夫链“初始分布”与“稳态分布”可知,有的演进状态在“稳态分布”中所占比例相对“初始分布”占比有所下降,演进状态存在重复性,退化可能性较大,也有悖于农业现代化一般规律,差异性表现明显。
⑤西部农业现代化演进符合Logistic成长曲线式阶段规律但其差异性明显。样本区间内西部地区农业现代化演进符合Logistic成长曲线所描绘的阶段性规律,西部农业现代化已演进至Logistic成长曲线第一阶段,即“形成期”阶段。而中国和东部地区农业现代化已分别演进至“成长初期”阶段和“成长后期”阶段,比较发现西部农业现代化演进阶段规律存在明显差异性。此外,农业现代化、工业化和城镇化同步及其动态均衡亦是农业现代化演进一般规律。但西部农业现代化演进中却出现不同步、脱节及动态失衡的规律变异性。
⑥现阶段西部农业现代化演进是农业人力资本、农业比较优势、农业研究与发展、工业化、城镇化等利导因子相互制衡与联合驱动结果。实证结果揭示农业人力资本、农业比较优势、农业研究与发展、工业化、城镇化等与西部农业现代化演进之间存在显著正向效应,农业人力资本对西部农业现代化演进影响系数最大,其次为工业化,再之为城镇化。且各驱动因子影响存在“门槛效应”,跨越相应“门槛值”后边际影响效应亦不同。这说明西部农业现代化演进过程并不是单一“驱动力”所支撑的,而是上述几种“驱动力”相互联系、共同作用、相互制衡所形成的动力机制维系与联合驱动结果。
⑦农业分工、农业结构、信息化等构成的约束机制及制度保障机制缺失是阻滞西部农业现代化演进的深层次原因。其中,非农分工不完全引致农户“兼业化”,农业横向分工交易成本高使农业内合作缺失与新型农业经营主体缺位,农业产业链条中的“市场链”与“加工链”的“弱位”使纵向分工受阻,阻滞了西部农业现代化演进过程；农业“大而全、小而全”所形成的农业结构同质以及种植业结构调整中的“压粮扩经”削弱了西部农业现代化演进基础条件。西部信息产业发展滞后、信息基础设施和传播体系不健全、信息资源匮乏制约了信息化发挥“渗透效应”及其对农业现代化演进“引领”作用。此外,制度保障机制缺失,也在一定程度上强化了约束机制“负面效应”,阻滞了西部农业现代化演进过程。
三、创新之处
①运用数理模型揭示了农业现代化演进“均衡条件”。研究运用生产函数从新古典框架和内生发展框架“双重”视角探究并揭示了农业现代化演进过程与“均衡条件”,发现农业人力资本“临界值”突破是农业现代化演进关键,且实证印证与理论推演一致。这是已有研究鲜有涉及的,研究具有一定拓展性和新意。
②揭示了农业现代化一般规律在西部地区所呈现的差异性。研究借鉴“收敛假说”、系统演进思想及Logistic成长曲线,实证揭示西部农业现代化演进过程特征、演进状态变迁、演进阶段与农业现代化一般规律存在显著差异,弥补了现阶段学术界关于农业现代化自身研究止步于农业现代化测度的缺陷与不足。
③实证了西部农业现代化演进主要影响因子及其位序。研究从内生、外生两个层面拓展了影响西部农业现代化演进的主要因子,将农业人力资本、农业比较优势、农业研究与发展、农业结构、农业分工、城镇化、工业化、信息化、制度安排等变量予以实证。研究发现农业人力资本边际效应显著为正且最大,其次为工业化,再之为城镇化。研究弥补了现阶段关于农业现代化研究定性研究居多、定量研究稀缺,偶有定量研究也大多偏重“四化”关系描述的不足。
④尝试将新的科学方法引入研究并有所突破。在分析农业现代化演进过程时运用的Kernel核密度估计方法、马尔可夫链模型、Logistic成长曲线模型及其Levenberg-Marquardt估计方法都是同类研究不曾运用的。在实证西部农业现代化演进影响因子时运用了前沿的空间计量和门槛计量技术,也有助于克服传统计量方法局限性,具有一定新意。
This dissertation is an empirical study on the evolution process and mechanism of agricultural modernization in Western China. The harmony and sustainable development between economy and society has been long plagued by the lag issue of agricultural modernization in Western China. The evolution of agricultural modernization is not only disjointed on the whole, but there is a serious contrast in some local areas, reflecting the specificity and complexity of the evolution process of agricultural modernization in Western China. In this study, the key question is:What are the differences in the evolution process of agricultural modernization in Western China? What are the main impacting factors? And how do they affect the evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China? And the study purposes are: building a general theoretical framework to reveal the equilibrium conditions of agricultural modernization evolution by drawing on relevant theory; revealing the performance of variations of agricultural modernization's general law by portraying the evolution process of western agricultural modernization; empirically analyzing the major factors to resolve the mechanism of agricultural modernization in Western China. The research ideas of the dissertation is that, a variety of qualitative and quantitative analysis methods are used in this dissertation to portray the evolution process and differences, resolve the evolution mechanism, and based on the theoretical and empirical conclusions, the main way and countermeasures are proposed to promote the evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China.
1. The main contents
①The theoretical interpretation of the evolution of agricultural modernization. Firstly, the classical theory and related researches involved are summarized, sorted and commented, which is used as main basis of the theoretical and logical starting point for the study to clarify the main research direction and perspective. Secondly, the concept of agricultural modernization, as a starting point of further research, is compared and clarified. And based on cognitive and research of agricultural modernization types and models in the whole world, an analytical model is established to reveal the equilibrium conditions of the evolution of agricultural modernization. Finally, based on the comments of existing research, modernization indicators and quantitative methods are chosen.
②The development status and comprehensive measurement of agricultural modernization in Western China. Firstly, from the perspective of history and the main policy line, the track of agricultural modernization is recalled from the planned economy period, the beginning of reform and opening up period to overall economic transition period, and a brief comment is made. Secondly, some typical, representative single quantitative indicators are used to depict the status and main achievements of western agricultural modernization from the perspective of the process and results. Finally, based on the limitations of single indicator, indicators synthesis of single indicators is used to measure the development of agricultural modernization, laying foundation for text analysis.
③Comparative analysis and regional differences of the evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China. Based on the results of comprehensive measurement, the overall evolution features and regional differences are revealed by the timing comparison, horizontal comparison, and longitudinal comparison. And on the basis of predicting agriculture modernization in the future, the evolution trends of western agricultural modernization are grasped in order to form a preliminary understanding of the evolution of western agricultural modernization.
④The differences in the evolution process of agricultural modernization in Western China. A variety of econometric models are established to depict the evolution process of agricultural modernization in Western China from the evolution process characteristics, evolution status and transferring and evolution stage. By comparing them with general law of agricultural modernization respectively, differences and manifestations are revealed in the evolution process of agricultural modernization in Western China. Finally, consequences for the difference the evolution of the western agricultural modernization are analyzed.
⑤Empirical Analysis on the major factors affecting the evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China. Based on the theoretical analysis framework, factors affecting the evolution of western agricultural modernization are expanded from the aspects of both endogenous and exogenous. And then quantitative indicators are selected and the models are designed to make an empirical analysis. Based on balanced panel data of twelve provinces in western China, the impact direction and degree of major factors are examined by spatial and threshold econometrics. At last, by comparing the empirical results, the factors affecting the difference in the evolution process of agricultural modernization in Western China.
⑥The evolution mechanism of agricultural modernization in Western China. According to the direction of main factors, the mechanism has been subdivided into force mechanism, restraint mechanism and security mechanisms to resolve the evolution of the western agricultural modernization comprehensively.
⑦The main ways and countermeasures to promote the evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China. Based on comprehensive analysis of the text, the main ways, policy operational thinking and related countermeasures are proposed to promote the evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China.
2. The main conclusions
①Theoretical deduction shows that breakthrough of agricultural human capital "thresholds" is the key to agricultural modernization evolution. The study finds that the endogenous model based on "labor heterogeneity hypothesis" is more suitable than neoclassical model to reveal the equilibrium conditions of agricultural modernization evolution. Under the framework of endogenous model, the breakthrough of agricultural human capital "thresholds" is the key to agricultural modernization evolution. The accumulation of physical capital will lead to "crowding effect" if excessively emphasized, and will block the evolution process of agricultural modernization. This also shows that in the practical operation of agricultural modernization, the "epitaxial model" simply driven by physical capital investment may make the evolution of agricultural modernization targets deviate and lead to counterproductive effect. Meanwhile, the theoretical deduction also reveals that technological progress should not be consider as unique content in promoting the evolution process of agricultural modernization, changes in arable land and labor force will also affect the time of agricultural human capital arriving at "equilibrium point", thereby affecting the evolution process of agricultural modernization evolution.
②In the sample interval the evolution velocity differences of agricultural modernization in Western China are outstanding among and within regions. In the sample interval, the evolution velocity of western agricultural modernization is fast and after implementation of western development strategy as a "watershed", the evolution of western agricultural modernization sets foot on the fast "track". And it takes on the characteristics of "step growth", non-stationary speed and intermittent increase, sensitive to the policies and so on. But on the other hand, based on horizontal and vertical comparison, the evolution of western agricultural modernization is significantly slower between regions. The characteristics of internal structural differences, inconsistency, and imbalance are also more prominent within western regions. The evolution rate of northwest region is better than southwest region, which also shows that it will be the structural contradictions in catching up process of the evolution of western agricultural modernization and must be resolved. Meanwhile, from the evolution trend of the western agricultural modernization, the "fluctuations forward" and differences between regions will still more distinct in the future.
③The evolution process of agricultural modernization in Western China has "club convergence" feature and the "polarization" problem is serious."Convergence hypothesis", Sala-I-Martin model and Kernel nonparametric methods are applied to reveal process characteristics of agricultural modernization in Western China. From the perspective of China, the process characteristics of the evolution of agricultural modernization present a typical significant "club convergence", which means that the western region and eastern and central region will converge on their own "steady state equilibrium", that is, the "steady state" of the east, middle and the west is different. In the long run, the "inequality" of the evolution of western agricultural modernization will not change. It is clear that the process characteristics of agricultural modernization are inconsistent and contrary with the general law. At the same time, within regions the evolution of agricultural modernization among western provinces does not converge to the same "steady state", they also showed significant "club convergence", embodied as the character of "twin peak"-"single peak"-"bi-modal and tri-modal alternating" across the whole sample period. And from the distance between "peak" and "the crest", the polarization problem is still serious.
④The changes and conversions of the evolution state of agricultural modernization in Western China are difficult and repetitive. Based on system evolution thought and Markov Chain model, the changes and conversions of agricultural modernization evolution state are revealed. The study found that the probability of the Markov Chain transition probability matrix on the main diagonal is greater. Transition probabilities on the main diagonal reveal the "internal dynamic" conversion of evolution state of western agricultural modernization. The main diagonal transition probability is greater, which means the transition probability or probability is small, so you can imagine how difficult and complex the evolution state changes of western agricultural modernization are. And by comparing Markov Chain's "initial distribution" and "steady-state distribution", the relative proportion of some evolution state in "steady-state distribution" has declined comparing with the "initial distribution", the evolution state of existence repeatability and may degenerate, the variability is obvious.
⑤The evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China is in accordance with the "Logistic growth curve style" stage law and its differences are significant. In the sample interval, the evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China is in line with phased law depicted by Logistic growth curve. The evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China has evolved to the first phase of Logistic growth curve that is "formative stage", While China and eastern regions have evolved to the "early growth stage" and "post-growth stage". By comparison it can be found that the evolutionary stage of western agriculture is significant different. In addition, the synchronization and its dynamic equilibrium among agricultural modernization, industrialization and urbanization are also the general law. However, in the west, the evolution of agricultural modernization lag behind the evolution of industrialization and urbanization, the phenomenon of dynamic imbalance and disconnection are very prominent.
⑥The current evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China is balanced and joined by human capital in agriculture, agricultural comparative advantage, agricultural research and development, industrialization and urbanization.The empirical results reveal that human capital of agriculture, agricultural comparative advantage, agricultural research and development, industrialization, urbanization have significant positive effect on the evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China. Among them, the coefficient of human capital in agriculture is maximum, followed by industrialization and urbanization. There exists "threshold effect" of each driving factor, after crossing appropriate "threshold" the marginal effect is also different. This shows the evolution of western modernization of agriculture is not driven by single force, but driven by several driving forces that build up the dynamic mechanism of the evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China.
⑦The main reason of lagging problem in western agricultural modernization evolution is caused by the restricting mechanism composed of agriculture division, information technology and agriculture structure and the missing of institutional safeguards. Among them, farmers'"industrialization" formed by incomplete non-farm agricultural division, high transaction costs of agricultural traversing division leading to lacking agricultural cooperation and absence of new agricultural business entities and the disjointing of "market chain" and "processing chain" in the agricultural industry chain will arrest the evolution of western agricultural modernization. The homogeneity of agricultural structure homogeneity formed by "large and small" problem, the phenomenon of depressing food production to expand economic crop production in the planting structure adjustment will result in endowments departure and food security, which would weaken the basic condition of the evolution of western agricultural modernization. The backwardness of western information industry, the dissemination of information infrastructure system, inadequate dissemination system and scarce information resources restricted the "osmotic effect" and its influences on the evolution of western agricultural modernization. In addition, to some extent, the lacking of institutional safeguards strengthen the binding mechanism's "negative effect" and arrest the evolution of western agricultural modernization.
3. Innovation
①The "equilibrium" conditions of agricultural modernization evolution are revealed by mathematical models. With the production function, this paper discusses the conditions of agricultural modernization evolution impacted by two mechanisms, physical capital under neoclassical framework and human capital under the endogenous development framework. The theoretical deduction shows that breaking through thresholds of agricultural human capital accumulation is the key condition of agricultural modernization evolution, and the empirical analysis coincides the theoretical reasoning, which is rarely involved in previous studies. And it is supposed to be new from this point of view.
②The differences between the western agricultural modernization evolution and the general law are revealed. Referring to the "convergence hypothesis", system evolution thinking and Logistic growth curve, this paper comprehensively and empirically analyzes the differences between the western agricultural modernization evolution and the general law from evolution progress characteristic, evolution state transferring and evolution stage law. And this study makes up the flaws that most of current study focus on the estimation of agricultural modernization.
③The main factors and their influential rank of western agricultural modernization evolution are empirically analyzed. Based on the theoretical analysis framework, and from endogenous and exogenous two levels, the factors impacting evolution of agricultural modernization in western China mainly are agricultural human capital, agricultural comparative advantage, agricultural R&D, agricultural structures, agricultural division of labor, urbanization, industrialization, information technology, institutional arrangements and policy support, which are empirically analyzed in the model. The results show that, agricultural human capital has a significant positive effect with the largest coefficient, followed by industrialization and urbanization. This study, to some extent, makes up the shortage that more qualitative study and less quantitative study on the evolution of agricultural modernization.
④New scientific methods are applied to the study and make a breakthrough. The methods of Nonparametric Kernel Density Estimation, Markov Chain, Logistic Growth Curve Model and Levenberg Marquardt Estimation, which are never used in this field before, are used when analyzing the evolution progress of agricultural modernization. Moreover, when empirically analyzing the factors of agricultural modernization evolution in western China, the frontier and advanced methods like Spatial Econometrics and Threshold Measurement are applied to overcome the limitation of traditional econometrics methods, which may offer some new ideas.
引文
① 此部分详见姜松、王钊：《西部农业现代化：学术演进与比较研究》,《改革》(录用待刊发)。
② 资料来源于维基百科。http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki
① 此节内容详见黄庆华、姜松：《发达国家农业现代化模式选择对重庆的启示——来自美日法三国的经验比较》,《农业经济问题》,2013年第4期。
① 此部分详见：姜松、王钊：《西部农业现代化：学术演进与比较研究》,《改革》(录用待刊发)。
① 该部分详细内容参见：姜松、王钊：《土地流转、适度规模经营与农民增收——基于重庆市数据实证》,《软科学》2012年第9期。
① 此部分详细内容参见：姜松,王钊等：《粮食生产中的科技进步速度及贡献研究——基于1985-2010年省级面板数据》,《农业技术经济》2012第10期。
① 此部分内容详见：姜松、王钊：《西部农业现代化：学术演进与比较研究》,《改革》(录用待刊发)。
① 此部分内容详见：姜松、王钊：《西部农业现代化：学术演进与比较研究》,《改革》(录用待刊发)。
② 由于在对数据进行指数化处理后,基期1987年的农业现代化发展指数变为0,为了计算西部农业现代化的年均增长率,从1988年开始计算(下同)。
③ 数据来自郑有贵和李成贵：《一号文件与中国农村改革》,安徽人民出版社,2008。
④ 在金融方面,紧缩乡镇企业的贷款,抑制乡镇企业贷款的过度膨胀；在财税方面,加强对乡镇企业的税收、财务治理和整顿；在环境方面,对于一些能耗大、效益差、污染严重的乡镇企业实行关、停、并、转等。
① 邓小平“两个飞跃”指废除人民公社实行家庭联产承包责任制；第二个飞跃指适应科学种田和生产社会化的需要,发展适度规模经营,发展集体经济。
① 如“十一五”期间,云南省年销售收入亿元以上的农产品加工企业有80家,国家级农业产业化重点龙头企业有19家,农民专业合作社有6000余个,认证的无公害产品、绿色食品和有机食品产地达1865万亩,比2005年增长57%(信息来源：新华网云南频道：http://www.aweb.com.cn).
① 农业部.西部大开发10周年农业发展计划情况.http://district.ce.cn/zt/99587/xbdkf/
① 此部分内容详见：姜松、黄庆华、曹峥林：《趋同还是趋异：西部农业现代化演进过程的实证分析》,《软科学》(终审阶段)。
① 夏春萍、刘文清(2012)在衡量农业现代化时选用的指标为人均机械总动力,周战强、乔志敏(2012)选取的指标为农业总产值／农业机械总动力来衡量的。通过本文的研究可知,这两种处理方法都是对农业现代化内涵特征的偏颇理解,研究结论有待后续研究的进一步考证。
② 霍夫曼定理认为：消费品工业与资本品工业的净值之比是逐步下降的,二者的比值越大,说明工业化水平越低。
① 数据来源：Oliner S D, Sichel D E. The resurgence of growth in the late 1990s:is information technology the story? [J]. the Journal of Economic Perspectives,2000,14(4):3-22.
① 按照第二次农业普查数据显示,西部地区农业从业人员中,51岁以下的劳动力所占的比重为64.3%。
② 斯蒂格利茨.《经济学》.中国人民大学出版社,2000：55.
① 根据新华网云南频道相关信息整理。http://www.yn.xinhuanet.com.
② 西部十二省2000年的农业科研活动费用为0.9亿元,但到2011年上升到12.7亿元,年均增幅达27.2%。
① 资料来源：新华网甘肃频道：http://www.gs.xinhuanet.com.
① 此部分内容详见：姜松、王钊：《农民专业合作社、联合经营与农业经济增长——中国经验证据实证》,《财贸研究》(双月刊),2013年第4期。
① 内容详见：姜松、曹峥林、王钊：《中国财政金融支农协同效率及其演化规律》,《软科学》,2013年第2期。
① 此部分内容详见：姜松、王钊：《土地流转、适度规模经营与农民增收——基于重庆市数据实证》,《软科学》,2012年第9期。姜松、王钊、曹峥林：《不同土地流转模式经济效应及位序——来自重庆的经验证据》,《中国土地科学》,2013年第8期。
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② 资料来源于维基百科。http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki
① 此节内容详见黄庆华、姜松：《发达国家农业现代化模式选择对重庆的启示——来自美日法三国的经验比较》,《农业经济问题》,2013年第4期。
① 此部分详见：姜松、王钊：《西部农业现代化：学术演进与比较研究》,《改革》(录用待刊发)。
① 该部分详细内容参见：姜松、王钊：《土地流转、适度规模经营与农民增收——基于重庆市数据实证》,《软科学》2012年第9期。
① 此部分详细内容参见：姜松,王钊等：《粮食生产中的科技进步速度及贡献研究——基于1985-2010年省级面板数据》,《农业技术经济》2012第10期。
① 此部分内容详见：姜松、王钊：《西部农业现代化：学术演进与比较研究》,《改革》(录用待刊发)。
① 此部分内容详见：姜松、王钊：《西部农业现代化：学术演进与比较研究》,《改革》(录用待刊发)。
② 由于在对数据进行指数化处理后,基期1987年的农业现代化发展指数变为0,为了计算西部农业现代化的年均增长率,从1988年开始计算(下同)。
③ 数据来自郑有贵和李成贵：《一号文件与中国农村改革》,安徽人民出版社,2008。
④ 在金融方面,紧缩乡镇企业的贷款,抑制乡镇企业贷款的过度膨胀；在财税方面,加强对乡镇企业的税收、财务治理和整顿；在环境方面,对于一些能耗大、效益差、污染严重的乡镇企业实行关、停、并、转等。
① 邓小平“两个飞跃”指废除人民公社实行家庭联产承包责任制；第二个飞跃指适应科学种田和生产社会化的需要,发展适度规模经营,发展集体经济。
① 如“十一五”期间,云南省年销售收入亿元以上的农产品加工企业有80家,国家级农业产业化重点龙头企业有19家,农民专业合作社有6000余个,认证的无公害产品、绿色食品和有机食品产地达1865万亩,比2005年增长57%(信息来源：新华网云南频道：http://www.aweb.com.cn).
① 农业部.西部大开发10周年农业发展计划情况.http://district.ce.cn/zt/99587/xbdkf/
① 此部分内容详见：姜松、黄庆华、曹峥林：《趋同还是趋异：西部农业现代化演进过程的实证分析》,《软科学》(终审阶段)。
① 夏春萍、刘文清(2012)在衡量农业现代化时选用的指标为人均机械总动力,周战强、乔志敏(2012)选取的指标为农业总产值／农业机械总动力来衡量的。通过本文的研究可知,这两种处理方法都是对农业现代化内涵特征的偏颇理解,研究结论有待后续研究的进一步考证。
② 霍夫曼定理认为：消费品工业与资本品工业的净值之比是逐步下降的,二者的比值越大,说明工业化水平越低。
① 数据来源：Oliner S D, Sichel D E. The resurgence of growth in the late 1990s:is information technology the story? [J]. the Journal of Economic Perspectives,2000,14(4):3-22.
① 按照第二次农业普查数据显示,西部地区农业从业人员中,51岁以下的劳动力所占的比重为64.3%。
② 斯蒂格利茨.《经济学》.中国人民大学出版社,2000：55.
① 根据新华网云南频道相关信息整理。http://www.yn.xinhuanet.com.
② 西部十二省2000年的农业科研活动费用为0.9亿元,但到2011年上升到12.7亿元,年均增幅达27.2%。
① 资料来源：新华网甘肃频道：http://www.gs.xinhuanet.com.
① 此部分内容详见：姜松、王钊：《农民专业合作社、联合经营与农业经济增长——中国经验证据实证》,《财贸研究》(双月刊),2013年第4期。
① 内容详见：姜松、曹峥林、王钊：《中国财政金融支农协同效率及其演化规律》,《软科学》,2013年第2期。
① 此部分内容详见：姜松、王钊：《土地流转、适度规模经营与农民增收——基于重庆市数据实证》,《软科学》,2012年第9期。姜松、王钊、曹峥林：《不同土地流转模式经济效应及位序——来自重庆的经验证据》,《中国土地科学》,2013年第8期。
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