房地产周期波动研究
摘要
20世纪90年代后期我国提出把住宅和房地产业培育成为国民经济新的增长点和消费热点，房地产周期波动对国民经济的影响日益突出。本文既是对房地产周期波动一般理论的归纳总结，更重要的是在借鉴前人研究成果的基础上创造性地运用指示和预示指标体系探讨全国和北京房地产周期波动规律，预测未来一段时间的市场走势。本文共分四章，主要内容如下：
第一章是导论，论述研究的意义、思路和方法，并定义相关概念。
与宏观经济运行过程的周期波动一样，房地产业在发展过程中也存在着繁荣与衰退交替出现的现象。由于笔者身处房地产业，所以将研究目的确定为帮助投资者和开发商认识房地产周期波动的规律性和特征，把握正确的投资时机，赢得进入和退出市场的主动权。本文的主要研究方法是：理论与实际相结合，定性研究与定量分析相结合，在借鉴前人经验的的基础上发展、创新。最后对“不动产”、“不动产投资”和“房地产周期波动”等重要又容易模糊的概念进行阐释，界定它们在本文中的含义。
第二章论述房地产周期波动的基本原理。
西方主要经济学流派对经济周期的性质和成因主要有四种观点，从中可以总结出经济周期是在内生因素和外生因素共同作用下形成的这个普遍性的结论。然后我们用这个理论从两方面论述房地产周期波动的成因，首先分析内在形成机制，即由内生因素形成房地产的自我循环和推动；然后分析外在影响因素，包括政策因素、国民经济发展阶段、经济体制和经济组织制度等。内生因素是房地产周期波动的根本原因，外生因素通过内在传导机制对房地产经济波动发生影响。外生因素不论多么强大，作用多么持久，只会改变房地产周期波动的形态，而不会改变由内生因素决定的房地产周期波动的必然性和基本规律。在我国处于从计划经济体制向市场经济体制转变的过渡时期，政策因素对房地产周期波动具有决定性的影响，政策变动可以看作房地产周期波动的晴雨表。
然后分析房地产周期四个阶段的基本特征，这有助于我们更好地了解周期演变的全过程，包括每个阶段市场供求关系、价格、空置率等内生因素的变化以及政府、开发商金融机构等市场参与者的不同表现。最后对房地产周期波动的总体
特征进行归纳总结。
第三章论述房地产周期波动与宏观经济波动的关系。
作为一种产业周期，房地产周期波动的性质必定受到宏观经济波动的深刻影响，反之，房地产市场的景气状况也影响到宏观经济的走势。为研究方便，我们用GDP指标反映宏观经济波动，用商品房销售面积增长率指示房地产周期波动，分析两者在长期趋势和周期波动上的正相关关系。通常情况下房地产与宏观经济同时或滞后于宏观经济复苏，在繁荣和衰退阶段则快于宏观经济周期，萧条阶段要长于宏观经济周期，前者的波动幅度远远大于后者。我国房地产周期与宏观经济周期的关系基本与理论相符，又因为住房制度改革等外生因素影响而具有特殊性。
经济发展过程中通常伴随着利率和通货膨胀率的交替上升和下降，形成利率周期和通货膨胀周期，两者通过不同的方式和途径对房地产周期波动造成影响。通常利率周期与房地产周期波动相反，利率降低刺激房地产扩张，利率升高使房地产萎缩。利率对房地产的影响存在时滞，表现在波动时序上，利率周期通常比房地产周期约早一年。通货膨胀使不动产的名义价格和实际价值上升，推动房地产扩张，作为一种投资品种和消费品，不动产往往成为有效抵抗通货膨胀的壁垒。通货膨胀周期与房地产周期正相关，波动时序上略有不同，我国房地产周期领先通涨周期约1年的时间。总体上看，我国房地产周期与利率周期和通货膨胀周期的关系基本与理论相符，只有部分年份受政策等外生因素影响例外。
第四章运用房地产周期波动理论对北京房地产市场进行实证分析。
每个地区房地产周期波动都是不相同的。实证分析的目的在于认识北京房地产周期波动规律，判断当前房地产周期所处的阶段，并预测未来一段时间市场的变化趋势。与西方发达国家不同，房地产业在中国还是一个新兴产业，所以分析北京房地产周期波动既要考虑周期规律性，更要充分考虑各种外生因素对产业发展的冲击和影响，特别是政策因素导致房地产波动的不规则性。
为了定量研究房地产周期波动，首先需要选择适当的指标，包括指示指标（价格和成交量），预示指标（利率）和滞后指标（空置率）。通过分析这些指标的长期趋势、周期波动和它们之间的相互关系，以及隐藏在指标变动背后的内生因素和外生因素的影响，我们对北京房地产（包括住宅、办公和商业物业）有一个基
本的判断：1、长期看北京房地产将从目前的高速增长恢复到稳定增长的轨道上来；2、北京房地产自1997年至今一直处在周期波动的繁荣阶段。从利率指标和政策因素看，市场有调整的初步迹象，如果政府规范市场行为的措施能够取得成效，那么即使市场出现调整力度也会很弱，投资者和开发商受的影响也较小；如果房地产投资仍然超过销售过快增长，金融风险将持续增加，政府采取实质性的政策干预手段给楼市降温的可能性将提高，如提高利率、降低房贷成数等，由此引起的市场下跌将相当剧烈。
本章最后探讨了
Since late 90s in China when governmental policy was made to foster estate industry into consumption fashion and a new dynamic of economy, the influence on economy of periodic fluctuation of estate industry is becoming more and more obvious. Although the essay is written on the basis of the prior scholar's study result, it is more than a generalization of the traditional estate periodic fluctuation theory. More significantly, the essay creatively establishes an indicating and forecasting system to discuss the pattern of the periodic fluctuation of the Beijing and national estate market, and with this system to foresee the estate market trend. The essay includes four chapters as following.
Chapter one is an introduction which discuss the significance of study, line of reasoning and analyzing method, and give some definition of relative concept.
Just as there is a periodic fluctuation in macro economy, estate industry alternates with boom and decline. Facing the readers in estate industry, author intends to help investor and developer to recognize the pattern and feathers of the estate market fluctuation, grasp the correct investing opportunity and win the initiative to enter and exit the market. The main study methods are also expounded in this chapter which are: combining the theory and practice, conducting both the qualitative and quantitative analyze, developing based on the experience of the prior studiers. In the end of this chapter, author elaborates some important and confusable concepts such as real estate, real estate investment and periodic fluctuation in real estate market, and gives them definition in the context of this essay.
Chapter two introduces the base theories of periodic fluctuation in real estate market.
The mainstream of western economic schools has four viewpoints on the cause and characters of economy cycle. From these theories, we can reach a universal conclusion that economy cycle is formed by the internal forces as well as the external ones. We then use this conclusion to discuss the cause of economy cycle in real estate market from both sides: first, we analyze internal function system - the self-circulation and self-pushing of the industry due to internal factors; then we analyze external factors including: government policy, national economy developing stage, economy system and economy organization system. The point of essay is that internal factors are the fundamental cause of the real estate economy cycle, external factors function through the "internal conducting system". Regardless of how strong external factors are, how long they lasting, they can only change the shape of real estate economy cycle, not the inevitability and basic pattern of the cycle decided by the internal factors. During the period when Chinese economy system transits from
plan economy to market economy, the policy factor has a significant influence on real estate periodic fluctuation, with its changing can be seen as the barometer of real estate market.
Following is the analyses of the basic feathers of the four stage of real estate economy cycle, which helps us to have a better understanding on the total process of estate economy cycle evolving, including the changes of internal factors in every stage such as supply-demand relationship, price, vacancy rate and different performance of market involver such as government, developers and financial institutions. In the end of this chapter, a generalization of overall feathers of real estate economy cycle is presented.
Chapter three discusses the relationship between the real estate periodic fluctuation and macro economy fluctuation.
As an industry cycle, the character of real estate economy cycle is bound to be influenced by the macro economy fluctuation, on the other side, the booming or declining of real estate market also influence the trend of macro economy. For the convenience of study, we use GDP to indicate the fluctuation of macro economy and use increasing rate of sold area of commodity house to indicate the periodic fluctuation
第一章是导论，论述研究的意义、思路和方法，并定义相关概念。
与宏观经济运行过程的周期波动一样，房地产业在发展过程中也存在着繁荣与衰退交替出现的现象。由于笔者身处房地产业，所以将研究目的确定为帮助投资者和开发商认识房地产周期波动的规律性和特征，把握正确的投资时机，赢得进入和退出市场的主动权。本文的主要研究方法是：理论与实际相结合，定性研究与定量分析相结合，在借鉴前人经验的的基础上发展、创新。最后对“不动产”、“不动产投资”和“房地产周期波动”等重要又容易模糊的概念进行阐释，界定它们在本文中的含义。
第二章论述房地产周期波动的基本原理。
西方主要经济学流派对经济周期的性质和成因主要有四种观点，从中可以总结出经济周期是在内生因素和外生因素共同作用下形成的这个普遍性的结论。然后我们用这个理论从两方面论述房地产周期波动的成因，首先分析内在形成机制，即由内生因素形成房地产的自我循环和推动；然后分析外在影响因素，包括政策因素、国民经济发展阶段、经济体制和经济组织制度等。内生因素是房地产周期波动的根本原因，外生因素通过内在传导机制对房地产经济波动发生影响。外生因素不论多么强大，作用多么持久，只会改变房地产周期波动的形态，而不会改变由内生因素决定的房地产周期波动的必然性和基本规律。在我国处于从计划经济体制向市场经济体制转变的过渡时期，政策因素对房地产周期波动具有决定性的影响，政策变动可以看作房地产周期波动的晴雨表。
然后分析房地产周期四个阶段的基本特征，这有助于我们更好地了解周期演变的全过程，包括每个阶段市场供求关系、价格、空置率等内生因素的变化以及政府、开发商金融机构等市场参与者的不同表现。最后对房地产周期波动的总体
特征进行归纳总结。
第三章论述房地产周期波动与宏观经济波动的关系。
作为一种产业周期，房地产周期波动的性质必定受到宏观经济波动的深刻影响，反之，房地产市场的景气状况也影响到宏观经济的走势。为研究方便，我们用GDP指标反映宏观经济波动，用商品房销售面积增长率指示房地产周期波动，分析两者在长期趋势和周期波动上的正相关关系。通常情况下房地产与宏观经济同时或滞后于宏观经济复苏，在繁荣和衰退阶段则快于宏观经济周期，萧条阶段要长于宏观经济周期，前者的波动幅度远远大于后者。我国房地产周期与宏观经济周期的关系基本与理论相符，又因为住房制度改革等外生因素影响而具有特殊性。
经济发展过程中通常伴随着利率和通货膨胀率的交替上升和下降，形成利率周期和通货膨胀周期，两者通过不同的方式和途径对房地产周期波动造成影响。通常利率周期与房地产周期波动相反，利率降低刺激房地产扩张，利率升高使房地产萎缩。利率对房地产的影响存在时滞，表现在波动时序上，利率周期通常比房地产周期约早一年。通货膨胀使不动产的名义价格和实际价值上升，推动房地产扩张，作为一种投资品种和消费品，不动产往往成为有效抵抗通货膨胀的壁垒。通货膨胀周期与房地产周期正相关，波动时序上略有不同，我国房地产周期领先通涨周期约1年的时间。总体上看，我国房地产周期与利率周期和通货膨胀周期的关系基本与理论相符，只有部分年份受政策等外生因素影响例外。
第四章运用房地产周期波动理论对北京房地产市场进行实证分析。
每个地区房地产周期波动都是不相同的。实证分析的目的在于认识北京房地产周期波动规律，判断当前房地产周期所处的阶段，并预测未来一段时间市场的变化趋势。与西方发达国家不同，房地产业在中国还是一个新兴产业，所以分析北京房地产周期波动既要考虑周期规律性，更要充分考虑各种外生因素对产业发展的冲击和影响，特别是政策因素导致房地产波动的不规则性。
为了定量研究房地产周期波动，首先需要选择适当的指标，包括指示指标（价格和成交量），预示指标（利率）和滞后指标（空置率）。通过分析这些指标的长期趋势、周期波动和它们之间的相互关系，以及隐藏在指标变动背后的内生因素和外生因素的影响，我们对北京房地产（包括住宅、办公和商业物业）有一个基
本的判断：1、长期看北京房地产将从目前的高速增长恢复到稳定增长的轨道上来；2、北京房地产自1997年至今一直处在周期波动的繁荣阶段。从利率指标和政策因素看，市场有调整的初步迹象，如果政府规范市场行为的措施能够取得成效，那么即使市场出现调整力度也会很弱，投资者和开发商受的影响也较小；如果房地产投资仍然超过销售过快增长，金融风险将持续增加，政府采取实质性的政策干预手段给楼市降温的可能性将提高，如提高利率、降低房贷成数等，由此引起的市场下跌将相当剧烈。
本章最后探讨了
Since late 90s in China when governmental policy was made to foster estate industry into consumption fashion and a new dynamic of economy, the influence on economy of periodic fluctuation of estate industry is becoming more and more obvious. Although the essay is written on the basis of the prior scholar's study result, it is more than a generalization of the traditional estate periodic fluctuation theory. More significantly, the essay creatively establishes an indicating and forecasting system to discuss the pattern of the periodic fluctuation of the Beijing and national estate market, and with this system to foresee the estate market trend. The essay includes four chapters as following.
Chapter one is an introduction which discuss the significance of study, line of reasoning and analyzing method, and give some definition of relative concept.
Just as there is a periodic fluctuation in macro economy, estate industry alternates with boom and decline. Facing the readers in estate industry, author intends to help investor and developer to recognize the pattern and feathers of the estate market fluctuation, grasp the correct investing opportunity and win the initiative to enter and exit the market. The main study methods are also expounded in this chapter which are: combining the theory and practice, conducting both the qualitative and quantitative analyze, developing based on the experience of the prior studiers. In the end of this chapter, author elaborates some important and confusable concepts such as real estate, real estate investment and periodic fluctuation in real estate market, and gives them definition in the context of this essay.
Chapter two introduces the base theories of periodic fluctuation in real estate market.
The mainstream of western economic schools has four viewpoints on the cause and characters of economy cycle. From these theories, we can reach a universal conclusion that economy cycle is formed by the internal forces as well as the external ones. We then use this conclusion to discuss the cause of economy cycle in real estate market from both sides: first, we analyze internal function system - the self-circulation and self-pushing of the industry due to internal factors; then we analyze external factors including: government policy, national economy developing stage, economy system and economy organization system. The point of essay is that internal factors are the fundamental cause of the real estate economy cycle, external factors function through the "internal conducting system". Regardless of how strong external factors are, how long they lasting, they can only change the shape of real estate economy cycle, not the inevitability and basic pattern of the cycle decided by the internal factors. During the period when Chinese economy system transits from
plan economy to market economy, the policy factor has a significant influence on real estate periodic fluctuation, with its changing can be seen as the barometer of real estate market.
Following is the analyses of the basic feathers of the four stage of real estate economy cycle, which helps us to have a better understanding on the total process of estate economy cycle evolving, including the changes of internal factors in every stage such as supply-demand relationship, price, vacancy rate and different performance of market involver such as government, developers and financial institutions. In the end of this chapter, a generalization of overall feathers of real estate economy cycle is presented.
Chapter three discusses the relationship between the real estate periodic fluctuation and macro economy fluctuation.
As an industry cycle, the character of real estate economy cycle is bound to be influenced by the macro economy fluctuation, on the other side, the booming or declining of real estate market also influence the trend of macro economy. For the convenience of study, we use GDP to indicate the fluctuation of macro economy and use increasing rate of sold area of commodity house to indicate the periodic fluctuation
引文
1、《波浪原理》：[美]艾略特，中华工商联合出版社，1999
2、《我国转轨时期经济周期波动的测定和分析》：陈磊，吉林大学博士学位论文，1999
3、《房地产景气循环及其周期研究》：张红
4、《经济学》：[美]斯蒂格利茨，中国人民大学出版社，1998
5、《房地产周期波动研究》：潭刚，经济管理出版社，2001
6、《中国房地产业发展与管理研究》：曹振良、高晓慧等，2002
7、《中国房地产周期与经济周期的互动研究》：朱海洪，中国人民大学硕士学位论文，2002
8、《不动产周期波动研究》：郭锋锐，中国人事出版社，2001
9、《中国房地产指数系统：理论与实践》：搜房研究院，中国财政经济出版社，2001
10、《新世纪住宅与房地产业发展研究》：张跃庆，首都经济贸易大学出版社，2003
11、《一个记者眼中的地产十年》：陈大阳，天津社会科学出版社，2002
12、《地产泡沫与金融危机》：谢经荣等，经济管理出版社，2002
13、 “Real Estate Cycles and Their Strategic Implications for Investors and Portfolio Managers in the Global Economy”：美国Stephen E.Roulac
14、“我国房地产市场周期研究综述”：戴荣，《中外房地产导报》
15、《繁荣与稳定：中国经济波动研究》：刘树成，社会科学文献出版社，2000
16、《现代经济周期理论》：罗伯特。J。巴罗主编，方松英译，商务印书馆，1997
17、《金融与经济周期预测》：Michael P. Niemira ，Philip A. Klein 著，邱东等译，中国统计出版社，1998
18、《房地产投资决策分析》：盖伦。E。格里尔、迈克尔。D。法雷尔，龙胜平等译，上海人民出版社，1997
19、《房地产投资与决策分析——理论与实务》：张金鄂，台湾华泰书局，1998
20、“中国不动产经济波动与周期的实证研究”： 梁桂，《经济研究》1996年第7期
2、《我国转轨时期经济周期波动的测定和分析》：陈磊，吉林大学博士学位论文，1999
3、《房地产景气循环及其周期研究》：张红
4、《经济学》：[美]斯蒂格利茨，中国人民大学出版社，1998
5、《房地产周期波动研究》：潭刚，经济管理出版社，2001
6、《中国房地产业发展与管理研究》：曹振良、高晓慧等，2002
7、《中国房地产周期与经济周期的互动研究》：朱海洪，中国人民大学硕士学位论文，2002
8、《不动产周期波动研究》：郭锋锐，中国人事出版社，2001
9、《中国房地产指数系统：理论与实践》：搜房研究院，中国财政经济出版社，2001
10、《新世纪住宅与房地产业发展研究》：张跃庆，首都经济贸易大学出版社，2003
11、《一个记者眼中的地产十年》：陈大阳，天津社会科学出版社，2002
12、《地产泡沫与金融危机》：谢经荣等，经济管理出版社，2002
13、 “Real Estate Cycles and Their Strategic Implications for Investors and Portfolio Managers in the Global Economy”：美国Stephen E.Roulac
14、“我国房地产市场周期研究综述”：戴荣，《中外房地产导报》
15、《繁荣与稳定：中国经济波动研究》：刘树成，社会科学文献出版社，2000
16、《现代经济周期理论》：罗伯特。J。巴罗主编，方松英译，商务印书馆，1997
17、《金融与经济周期预测》：Michael P. Niemira ，Philip A. Klein 著，邱东等译，中国统计出版社，1998
18、《房地产投资决策分析》：盖伦。E。格里尔、迈克尔。D。法雷尔，龙胜平等译，上海人民出版社，1997
19、《房地产投资与决策分析——理论与实务》：张金鄂，台湾华泰书局，1998
20、“中国不动产经济波动与周期的实证研究”： 梁桂，《经济研究》1996年第7期